Peacekeepers Under Threat? Fatality Trends in UN Peace Operations
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SIPRI Policy Brief September 2015 PEACEKEEPERS UNDER SUMMARY w It is often claimed that THREAT? FATALITY TRENDS contemporary United Nations peace operations perform their functions in increasingly IN UN PEACE OPERATIONS dangerous environments and jaïr van der lijn and timo smit are therefore more likely to suff er casualties than in previous years. Yet the data on INTRODUCTION in October 2014 that ‘peacekeepers deaths among UN peacekeepers between 1990 and 2015 in 21st century missions face indicates that fatalities have not Since the United Nations established unprecedented risks . because we its fi rst peacekeeping operation— become more frequent, neither are asking them . to take on more in absolute terms nor, almost 70 years ago—more than responsibilities in more places and 3300 people have died serving the especially, in relative terms. In in more complex confl icts than at fact, the rate of fatalities among UN in the pursuit of peace. On any time in history’.2 In addition, uniformed personnel in UN 29 May 2015, the International the High-Level Independent Panel peace operations has steadily Day of UN Peacekeepers, the Dag on UN Peace Operations stressed decreased in relative terms Hammarskjöld medal was awarded throughout its fi nal report issued since the early 1990s. While the posthumously to the 126 military in June 2015 that peacekeepers are number of hostile deaths personnel, police and civilians operating in increasingly dangerous (i.e. fatalities due to malicious who lost their lives in 2014 while and hostile settings, and that this acts) has increased somewhat in recent years, this is mainly due in the service of the UN. At the will likely increase in the future.3 to the high number of fatalities commemoration ceremony at the Indeed, in recent years UN in MINUSMA, which is one of UN Peacekeeping Memorial in peacekeepers have been attacked New York, UN Secretary-General the most deadly UN by violent extremist groups (e.g. in peacekeeping operations ever. Ban Ki-moon remarked that for the Central African Republic, CAR, the seventh year in a row more All other ongoing UN and Mali), held hostage by jihadists peacekeeping operations have than 100 peacekeepers had died (in Syria), and deployed to areas suff ered relatively few fatalities serving the UN across the world. in which there is little or no peace and hostile deaths, and fewer He attributed this to the fact that to keep (CAR, Darfur, Mali, South than many UN operations that the UN deploys more peacekeepers Sudan). Two-thirds of all UN were active in the 1990s. than ever and that UN peacekeepers peacekeepers operate in countries operate in ever more dangerous where armed confl ict is ongoing 1 environments. and in some cases intensifying.4 These arguments are frequently Meanwhile, since the end of the used. For example, the US 1990s peacekeeping mandates Ambassador to the UN, Samantha have become more robust—often Power, told the UN Security Council 2 United Nations, Security Council, 7275th 1 Ban, K., Secretary-General to the United meeting, S/PV.7275, 9 Oct. 2014. Nations, ‘Secretary-General remarks at 3 United Nations, ‘Report of the High-Level wreath-laying ceremony for International Day Independent Panel on United Nations Peace of United Nations Peacekeepers’, 29 May 2015, Operations’, A/70/95-S/2015/446, 17 June 2015. <http://www.un.org/sg/statements/ 4 United Nations, A/70/95-S/2015/446 index.asp?nid=8687>. (note 3), p. 89. 2 sipri policy brief (hostile deaths).5 The conclusions 250 drawn are that operations have not become signifi cantly more 200 dangerous, at least not in terms of fatalities, and that contemporary operations are generally not 150 suff ering greater losses than their predecessors. Number of fatalities 100 TRENDS IN THE ABSOLUTE NUMBERS OF FATALITIES 50 Figure 1 shows the total number of fatalities per year among all 0 personnel in UN peace operations 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (peacekeeping operations and Total fatalities Hostile deaths special political missions) since (uniformed + civilian personnel) (uniformed + civilian personnel) 1990. It shows an increase in Total fatalities Hostile deaths fatalities from 1998 to 2005. Since (uniformed personnel) (uniformed personnel) 2006 there has been no clear upward or downward trend, and Figure 1. Fatalities among personnel in United Nations peace operations, except for 2010 (when nearly 1990–2015 100 peacekeepers involved in the Notes: The values for 2015 are projections based on the fatalities in the fi rst half of the MINUSTAH operation died as year (up until 2 July) and do not represent the number of deaths in 2015 so far. a result of the Haiti earthquake) Source: United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO). the fatality levels have remained more or less within a stable range. The same is true when focusing including the authorization to use only on fatalities among uniformed force and sometimes even off ensive personnel (military and police). action. Yet most peacekeepers are By contrast, the number of hostile neither suffi ciently trained, nor deaths has increased more clearly equipped, to deal with asymmetric in recent years. The number of threats and well-armed adversaries personnel killed by malicious acts in addition to the set of tasks they in 2013 and 2014 was at its highest are expected to perform. In other level for 20 years. However, while words—while any death in the this is cause for great concern, service of the UN is inherently recent facility levels are still much tragic—it is hardly surprising that lower than those in 1993 and 1994, peacekeepers are losing their lives when the UN suff ered heavy in the line of duty. losses in the former Yugoslavia However, is it correct to assume (UNPROFOR), Cambodia (UNTAC) that contemporary peace operations and Somalia (UNOSOM II). are more dangerous than before? Moreover, it is worth To answer that question, this policy remembering that malicious acts brief analyses trends in (relative) are not the main cause of deaths fatality rates among personnel in among peace operations personnel. UN peace operations since 1990, with a particular focus on fatalities resulting from malicious acts 5 See box 1 for details about the sources used for this policy brief. peacekeepers under threat? 3 Illness and accidents (i.e. causes personnel have remained stable at that are not directly related about 1 per 1000. to hostile environments) still Looking at the number of account for the majority of deaths, hostile deaths per 1000 uniformed something that remains under- personnel, there is also little reported. Malicious acts usually evidence suggesting that do not account for more than 10 to peace operations have become 30 per cent of all fatalities per year, signifi cantly more dangerous. although the proportion of hostile While there has been a relatively deaths has increased in the past sharp increase in these fi gures few years. since 2010, the peaks in 2013 and 2014 (0.35 per 1000) are not TRENDS IN THE RELATIVE unusually high compared to those NUMBERS OF FATALITIES for the past 25 years, and they are approximately fi ve times lower Notwithstanding the above, when than in 1993 (1.72 per 1000). In comparing fatality levels over fact, when MINUSMA (Mali) is multiple years, it is necessary to excluded from the analysis, 2014 consider the exponential increase actually had the fewest hostile in UN peace operations personnel deaths per 1000 since 1990 as well. Between 1990 and 2015 the (0.08 per 1000). number of uniformed personnel in the fi eld has increased tenfold, from approximately 10 000 to more than 3.5 100 000. Figure 2 shows the number of fatalities per year for every 3.0 1000 military and police (on average) in UN peace operations. The 2.5 reason for focusing on uniformed personnel is that no comparable 2.0 data is available on civilian staff numbers before 2004, whereas the 1.5 monthly statistics on uniformed personnel go back to 1990. 1.0 Surprisingly, the trend in these fi gures seems to contradict the assumption that UN peace 0.5 Number of fatalities per 1000 uniformed personnel operations have become more dangerous. Contrary to 0 expectations, the number of 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 fatalities per 1000 uniformed Total fatalities Hostile deaths personnel has steadily decreased Total fatalities (excluding MINUSMA) Hostile deaths (excluding MINUSMA) over the past 25 years. Whereas most years between 1990 and 2005 Figure 2. Fatalities per 1000 uniformed personnel in United Nations peace recorded values well over 1.5 per operations, 1990–2015 1000—with a peak of 3.3 per 1000 in 1993—the trend line clearly Notes: The values for 2015 are projections based on the fatalities in the fi rst half of the year (up until 2 July) and do not represent the number of deaths in 2015 so far. See falls in 2006 and 2007. Since box 1 for details of the methodology. 2008, fatalities among uniformed MINUSMA = UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali. Source: United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO). 4 sipri policy brief TRENDS IN FATALITIES BY 3.0 PEACEKEEPING OPERATION 2.5 Fatalities are not evenly spread across peace operations, and those with particularly high 2.0 personnel losses can signifi cantly infl uence annual fatality levels. 1.5 For example, the huge spike in fatalities in 1993 resulted primarily from the high number 1.0 of losses suff ered by UNPROFOR, UNTAC and UNOSOM II. An 0.5 obvious explanation for the Number of fatalities per 1000 civilian personnel diff erences in fatalities is that UN peace operations vary in terms 0.0 of operational environments, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 strength and composition, and mandated tasks.