Central Berkshire FEMA Economic Development Needs Assessment
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Central Berkshire FEMA Economic Development Needs Assessment Thames Valley Berkshire Local Enterprise Partnership Final Report October 2016 Central Berkshire FEMA Economic Development Needs Assessment (EDNA) Final Report Thames Valley Berkshire Local Enterprise Partnership October 2016 14793/MS/ CGJ/LBa Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners 14 Regent's Wharf All Saints Street London N1 9RL nlpplanning.com This document is formatted for double sided printing. © Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd 2016. Trading as Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners. All Rights Reserved. Registered Office: 14 Regent's Wharf All Saints Street London N1 9RL All plans within this document produced by NLP are based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A Central Berkshire FEMA : Economic Development Needs Assessment Executive Summary This Economic Development Needs Assessment (EDNA) has been prepared by Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners on behalf of the Thames Valley Berkshire Local Enterprise Partnership and the Berkshire authorities of Bracknell Forest, Reading, Windsor and Maidenhead and Wokingham. The method followed is National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) compliant. It follows on from a Part 1 Study with the six Berkshire Authorities that for plan making purposes identified three Core FEMAs with the Berkshire area. This EDNA considers the objectively assessed economic development needs for Bracknell Forest, Reading, Windsor and Maidenhead and Wokingham within the Central Berkshire Core FEMA over the period 2013-2036. The study considers future quantitative land and floorspace requirements alongside related qualitative factors for individual sectors and employment uses. In accommodating growth needs, the EDNA notes competing pressures on land within authorities and the footloose nature of some needs that means they can be accommodated across individual boundaries. These factors will be considered in line with the NPPF by the Berkshire local authorities as part of the local plan process. The key findings of the study are as follows: Employment space within the Central Berkshire FEMA (based on 2012 data) is split relatively evenly between office and industrial uses, with industrial space having decreased over the preceding 12 years and office space having increased. Reading accommodates the majority of both office and industrial space and Valuation Office Agency data also underlines the dominant role that Reading plays in terms of accommodating B class employment space in the FEMA, as well as the geography of the Greater Reading commercial market with significant clusters of B class space outside the boundary of Reading in the adjoining local authority of Wokingham. The commercial centre of Bracknell, and to a lesser extent the centres of Maidenhead and Wokingham, also stand out as supporting substantial clusters of B class employment floorspace in the Central Berkshire FEMA. The stock of employment floorspace in Maidenhead tends to be most characterised by office space, while Bracknell and Wokingham’s space tends to be characterised as more mixed in nature. Over the last 10 years, a significant amount of new B class employment floorspace was completed in the FEMA, although Wokingham represents the only local authority area to have recorded more gains of employment floorspace than losses over this period. 10758541v9 Central Berkshire FEMA : Economic Development Needs Assessment The Central Berkshire FEMA most closely aligns with the ‘Core Thames Valley’ geography or market area focused on the key M4 markets of Reading, Maidenhead, Bracknell and Wokingham, with strong economic relationships between these towns in terms of value, accessibility and labour force. Within the FEMA itself, Reading represents the main office location and offers a wide range of accommodation from small scale office suites to large HQ style accommodation. Reading’s neighbouring authorities of West Berkshire and Wokingham accommodate large parts of what is generally considered to be a ‘Greater Reading office market’. Bracknell’s office market is generally characterised by business park style buildings with large floorplates. Demand for office space has struggled in recent years but has picked up more recently. For prospective office occupiers looking to locate in the Thames Valley, Bracknell is recognised as a relatively cheap option compared to other parts of the sub-region, and this cost advantage is reported to have attracted a number of relocations recently to Bracknell. Windsor and Maidenhead’s two main towns comprise distinct areas for the commercial property market. Windsor is a niche location, attractive to certain higher value firms seeking a prestige, heritage location and does not compete with other nearby areas. In contrast, Maidenhead is part of the wider M4 / Thames Valley property market to a greater extent, with a degree of competition with Bracknell, Slough and Reading. Wokingham Borough accommodates a two tier office market, comprising a number of large scale, high quality business parks which functionally operate within the greater Reading office market, and the town of Wokingham itself which represents a smaller and more localised office location. The FEMA also accommodates a reasonably strong industrial market which is generally characterised by good levels of demand and low levels of supply and availability. The key locations for industrial activity include Reading (and its surrounding hinterland which takes in adjoining Wokingham Borough and West Berkshire District) and Bracknell both of which benefit from excellent strategic road access and a large critical mass of industrial occupiers and sites. By contrast, the industrial markets in Wokingham town and RBWM are smaller in scale and lack the strategic profile of nearby Slough, Reading and Bracknell. The majority of demand comes from local businesses with local churn largely accounting for take-up in recent years. Three different scenarios of future employment space requirements have been considered to provide a framework for considering the future economic growth needs and B class employment space requirements within the Central Berkshire FEMA during the 23 year period 2013 to 2036. These scenarios reflect the PPG and draw upon the following: i projections of employment growth in the main B class sectors (labour demand) derived from economic forecasts produced by Cambridge Econometrics (CE) which are consistent with other 10758541v9 Central Berkshire FEMA : Economic Development Needs Assessment economic evidence base work that has been prepared recently for Thames Valley Berkshire; ii consideration of past trends in completions of employment space based on monitoring data collected by Bracknell Forest Council, Reading Borough Council, Wokingham Borough Council and Royal Borough of Windsor & Maidenhead and how these trends might change in the future; and iii estimating future growth of local labour supply based on population projections for the Central Berkshire FEMA applied as part of the recent Berkshire (including South Bucks) SHMA, and the amount of jobs and employment space that this can support. It should be noted that the CE economic forecasts were examined as part of the Berkshire (including South Bucks) Strategic Housing Market Assessment (February 2016) which highlighted notable variations in the rate of employment growth reported between historic time periods and the forecasts. The SHMA authors consequently made some adjustments to the overall rate of employment growth implied by the forecasts and for some authorities (Reading, West Berkshire and Wokingham) a specific ‘economic uplift’ is added within the SHMA to the objectively assessed housing need to account for this implied growth. Although it is not possible to model the employment space and land requirements associated with this adjusted growth trajectory as part of the EDNA, it is important to be aware of the adjustments that have been made as part of the SHMA within the context of economic evidence base alignment. The ‘net’ B class employment space requirements related to these different scenarios for the FEMA and individual local authority areas within the FEMA are summarised in Table ES1 below. 10758541v9 Central Berkshire FEMA : Economic Development Needs Assessment Table ES1: Net Employment Space Requirements (GEA sq.m) for Central Berkshire FEMA by Scenario, 2013 - 2036 1. Baseline 2. Past 3. Labour Uses Labour Completion Supply Demand Rates Offices (B1a/B1b) 261,545 -438,955 276,000 CENTRAL (B1c/B2/B8) BERKSHIRE Industrial 683,250 18,285 660,200 FEMA Total B Class Floorspace 944,795 -420,670 936,200 (sq.m) Offices (B1a/B1b) 106,215 -215,165 85,410 BRACKNELL Industrial (B1c/B2/B8) 324,395 6,785 263,110 FOREST Total B Class Floorspace 430,610 -208,380 348,520 (sq.m) Offices (B1a/B1b) 19,460 -252,310 44,605 (B1c/B2/B8) READING Industrial 112,600 1,840 133,910 Total B Class Floorspace 132,060 -250,470 178,510 (sq.m) Offices (B1a/B1b) 50,500 -25,760 52,680 WINDSOR & Industrial (B1c/B2/B8) 171,580 -26,680 168,400 MAIDENHEAD Total B Class Floorspace 222,080 -52,440 221,080 (sq.m) Offices (B1a/B1b) 85,370 54,280 93,305 (B1c/B2/B8) WOKINGHAM Industrial 74,675 36,340 94,785 Total B Class Floorspace 160,045 90,620 188,090 (sq.m) Source: NLP analysis After making an allowance for a safety margin and replacement of ongoing employment floorspace losses, the total ‘gross’ B class employment space requirement