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Water Resources Investigation in Pakistan with the Help of Landsat Imagery — Snow Surveys 1975-1978

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Water Resources Investigation in Pakistan with the Help of Landsat Imagery — Snow Surveys 1975-1978 Hvdrological Aspects of Alpine and High Mountain Areas (Proceedings of the Exeter Symposium, July 1982). IAHS Publ. no. 138. Water resources investigation in Pakistan with the help of Landsat imagery — snow surveys 1975-1978 R, N, TARAR Hydrology and System Analysis, Water and Power Development Authority, Lahore, Pakistan ABSTRACT Pakistan with a population of about 80 million is mostly dependent upon agriculture in the Indus basin, served through the world's largest contiguous irrigation system developed over the last lOO years. The Indus basin is drained by the River Indus and its five major tributaries namely: Kabul, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej. Snowmelt - excluding Ravi and Sutlej exclusively assigned to India under the Indus Waters Treaty 1960 - contributes about 70% of the annual flow of the rivers, thus highlighting the need for development of reliable forecasting techniques. With accurate seasonal/ sub-seasonal runoff predictions of the beginning of the snowmelt period in early spring, a more confident and rational planning of the water resources of the basin can be attempted through the online facilities of reservoirs, inter-river link canals and the vast irrigation system. Some rudimentary procedures are already being used but real improvements are expected only if snow surveys are made every year. While ground methods of snow surveys, though necessary, are quite expensive, time consuming and difficult, with the advent of Land Satellites it has become possible to map even the most inaccessible snowfields at fixed intervals. This paper presents the results of a study initiated by the Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) in 1975 to evolve prediction techniques using Landsat imagery acquired for selected areas over the upper Indus basin. Through analysis and interpretation of snow cover and runoff data from 1975-1978, a simple predictive correlation of the type R = aA + b has been developed where A is areal extent of snow cover in March/April and R the resultant runoff from 1 March/1 April to 31 August (snowmelt season). Attempts are underway to test the procedure in actual practice, but the situation is complicated by the presence of glaciers, which tend to melt more when the snow cover is thin. For this reason, it may be necessary to initiate international research efforts on the assessment of glacier melt to river flow in the upper Indus basin on a long-term and seasonal basis. INTRODUCTION Pakistan covers the major part of the Indus basin drained by the 177 178 R.N.Tarar River Indus and Its five major tributaries of Kabul, Jhelum Chenab Ravi and Sutlej (Fig.l). The Indus basin stretches fro^ dfsttt Sub-Basin Boundary . International Boundary Streamgauging Station River Course Existing Reservoir Proposed Reservoir -BASINS I Shyok River At Yogo 2. Indus Ri Kochuro 3 Hunza River AI Dainyor Bridge 3 GUgit River At Alam Bridge 5. Indus River At Partob Bridge 6. Astore River At Doyian ndus River At lesham 8. Kishanganga River At Muizoforabad 9. Kunhar River At Naran 10-Kunhar River At Garni Habibultah 11. Jhelum River At Koholo !2.Criitral River At Chitral 13- Swot River At Kalom 14 Kabul River At Nowshera 26 I Scale 72 ?4 ye Miles loo FIG.l Pakistan upper Indus basin. 160 80 0 highlands of Tibet (China) to the Arabian Sea over a distance of about 2000 miles (3200 km) . with the division of rivers of the IQfio8 ^n between India ^ Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty I960, Pakxstan is entitled to receive only the water from the Chenab.™"3 ^ ^ IndUS ^^ (includin3 Kabu1' ^elum and abnuf lntan^S h&S±CallV an agrarian country with a population of about 80 million mostly dependent upon the irrigated agriculture in the Indus basin. This is served through the world's largest ™f^US "Ration system in the Indus plains developed over the last 100 years or so. The system is fed through 16 diversion dams coZTcTli f ° milSS (58° km) °f ^ter-river link canals which TZ t\ TTrn nVerS Und6r Pakistan's control with the eastern riverT sr diverted upstream by India. m addition, the system has Water resources in Pakistan 179 three major storage reservoirs namely Mangla, Tarbela and Chasma at the upstream "rim" of the Indus plains which regulate as well as supplement the water needed for agricultural and other purposes. The rivers of the Indus basin rise in mountains with elevations ranging from 15 OOO to 25 OOO ft (4500 to 7500 m) a.m.s.l. These mountains are covered with snow during winter (January to March). The snow starts melting in early March in some basins and in April in others and continues throughout the summer. River flows consist mostly of snowmelt during this period. It is estimated that snowmelt contributes about 70% of the annual river flow of Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. Thus for effective river management not only man-made but also natural storage has to be considered in the form of perennial ice and snow accumulated on the high mountains of the Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindu-Kush. To meet the food and fibre requirements of its burgeoning population, Pakistan is giving the highest priority to water resource planning, development and management including floods. Recently a flood forecasting and warning project has been completed under a joint cooperative programme of WMO/UNDP, the Government of the Netherlands and the Government of Pakistan. Although with the completion of this project an infra-structure has become available for short-range flood peak/stage prediction with the help of computerized models using real-time river and rainfall data collected through telemetry and radar, streamflow forecasting will not be complete until data for the contribution from snow and glacier melt are known. The prediction of seasonal river runoff from March/ April to end of August - which consists largely of snowmelt in the upper basins - is of vital importance for the efficient utilization of the limited water supply to optimize agricultural production. Predictions of snowmelt runoff cannot be made without conducting snow surveys. Generally snow-pack water-equivalent, precipitation, temperature and soil moisture indices are used in regression equations to derive runoff correlations. There are also procedural errors in point measurements and their extrapolation to large basins or sub-basins. Above all, in the present Pakistan setting of restrained funding, limited know-how and limited access to the upper river basins, the related ground observations may be hard to undertake. Among major concerns within Pakistan hydrology which have not yet been adequately addressed are many related to snow and ice. On the other hand, snow surveys provide the basic data for runoff determination. Thus Pakistan WAPDA being the largest organization for development and management of water resources including storage reservoirs etc., is aware of this fundamental necessity and is trying to do what it can within the existing constraints. From 1961-1968, WAPDA conducted ground snow surveys in Kunhar sub-basin (No.9 in Fig.l) for determining depth of snow, water- equivalents, density of snow and soil moisture at different levels in representative snow courses. These surveys were limited in area and extent and were abandoned due to technical as well as financial difficulties. The results of this study were published in a report titled "Snow Survey of West Pakistan 1961-68" (WAPDA,1969). The water supply for most of the rivers of the world is derived larqely from snow and glaciers that accumulate in the mountainous 180 R.N.Tarar areas. Consequently, reliable water-supply predictions and flood forecasting require accurate measurement of the water-equivalent and areal extent of mountain snow-packs. Ground data collection methods cannot provide either the desired areal coverage or observational frequency. However, the capabilities of remote sensing from Earth-orbiting satellites offer promise for the development of improved snow surveillance techniques. The potential for snow survey from space was recognized by investigators such as Fritz (1963) and Tarble (1964) using TIROS data. Since then, specific techniques to map snow-cover distributions from satellite photography have been developed. An operational guide for this was prepared by J. C. Barnes and C. J. Bowley for Environmental Science Services Administration (ESSA) of USA in 1968. It discussed the characteristics of the Advanced Vidicon Camera System (AVCS) and Automatic Picture Transmission (APT). In their final report Barnes & Bowley (1969) concluded that the use of satellite data had facilitated interpretation of snow-covered areas. Nimbus 3 which carried the High Resolution Infrared Radiometer (HRIR) system provided data suitable for initial snow surveillance in the infrared spectral range. In 1970, Salomonson & Maeleod (1972) used Nimbus imagery for conducting hydrological observations over the basins of the Niger and Indus rivers. In their report they indicate that even the low-resolution data easily available from meteorological satellites would be valuable in these regions. Thus information of the spatial and temporal distribution of the snowmelt process in the River Indus basin was now available. Using the image dissector camera system on Nimbus 3 and 4, Salomonson & Maeleod mapped the areal extent of snow cover for 1969 and 1970 over the Indus river basin to correlate the monthly runoff. The results indicated that some success might be achieved in predicting the seasonal runoff volume if the areal extent of snow and the location of the snowline were monitored by satellite. In 1975, using six years of snow-cover satellite data and corresponding runoff records, Rango et al, (1977) extended the original research on the Indus river basin. In order to conduct this study, images over the Indus and Kabul rivers for April were selected from Environmental Science Services Administration (ESSA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite data and used to extract snow-covered areas in early spring.
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