Director’s Foreword...... 2 Headlines HJS Shaped...... 18 Publications...... 3 Upcoming Events...... 21 Events...... 6 Upcoming Publications...... 22 Media...... 16 Supporting HJS...... 24 reviewQuarterly WINTER 2016

Democracy

Freedom

Human 1 Winter 2016 RightsQuarterly Review Director’s Foreword

and impacted public debate through our highly The paper discusses the new Bill, which came popular events programme, media output and under attack earlier this year for its supposed appearances, and by providing expert analysis ‘affront to civil liberties’, and argues that of events throughout the world as they unfold. examining bulk data at scale, which the Bill facilitates, will allow analysts to pursue those The last quarter saw a superb range of policy who need pursuing accurately and at speed. papers published by our different research centres. Islamist-related terrorism remained To increase exposure to the issues on which central to our efforts, with the publication of we work, we have continued to reach out to Egypt, Hamas and Islamic State’s Sinai Province the public in the past three months through our by our Centre for the New Middle East. The events series. This quarter saw us host a superb report highlights the enduring threat posed range of scholars, diplomats, and world-leading by the Islamic State’s (IS) control of Egypt’s experts, including Israeli Ambassadors Mark Dr. Alan Mendoza Sinai province, warning that if IS continues to Regev and Dore Gold, joined by prominent lose ground in Iraq and Syria, we may see historian Andrew Roberts, to defend the Balfour the organisation redoubling its efforts in other Declaration in a popular event in parliament; Welcome to the Winter edition of The Henry territories. Paul Harris – Founder of the Bar Human Rights Jackson Society’s Quarterly Review. Committee of England and Wales; and Senior Our Russia Studies Centre, which this month Editor of The Economist Ryan Avent. We were The last three months have seen the continuation marked 25 years since the fall of the Soviet also pleased to welcome a new addition to of a season of political power shifts and Union in a series of events, has published Putin’s our US affiliate, Karen Springer, as our North changes in government, this time in the USA Useful Idiots: Britain’s Left, Right and Russia, a America Director. with Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the detailed investigation into links between British November Presidential elections. While all individuals and groups and their counterparts In the New Year, voters in two of Europe’s eyes are on the USA as Trump fills his new in Russia. The report suggests that the recent largest countries – France and Germany – will Administration with appointees, the House of tendency by European and British populists head to the polls. Combined with the expected Representatives Homeland Security Committee to establish connections with Russian groups triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty released a report warning that the US faces which are funded by the Kremlin to undermine by the British Government in the first quarter the highest threat from Islamist terror since the West is cause for concern. of 2017, we are mindful that Europe’s political September ‘11. This was echoed recently when landscape will soon change significantly, and Our Student Rights campaign - The Henry ‘C’ – the head of Britain’s Secret Intelligence are preparing for all possibilities. Jackson Society’s campus extremism Service – made a rare public intervention to monitoring unit – has published Myths and I hope you enjoy our Winter Quarterly Review assert a similar threat here. Meanwhile, in the Misunderstandings: Understanding Opposition and would like to take this opportunity to thank UK, the Government has published the Casey to the Prevent Strategy. The report articulates you for your generous support and participation Review into integration, which raises alarm the ways in which an extremist-supported in our activities. over social cohesion in the UK with particular campaign has been undermining the Prevent reference to certain pockets of the Muslim Season’s greetings! Duty - the legal responsibility placed on public population, and warns that a failure to talk sector bodies, including universities, to have about the problem ‘only leaves the ground mechanisms in place to prevent individuals open for the far right on one side and Islamist from being drawn into terrorism. It examines extremists on the other’. the narrative of the anti-Prevent campaign, Throughout these waves of change, we at The refuting the myths used to make misleading Henry Jackson Society have continued to provide attacks on the policy. a voice of reason and clarity through innovative Refuting unsubstantiated claims has set the Dr. Alan Mendoza and practical research, to ensure that both the tone for another one of our policy papers Executive Director public and policy-makers have access to the this quarter - Securing the Foundations: The facts, as well as possible solutions to some of Investigatory Powers Bill and British Intelligence. today’s most pressing issues. We have shaped

2 Winter 2016 Quarterly Review Publications

Myths and Misunderstandings: Understanding Opposition to The Prevent Strategy Rupert Sutton

The policies adopted by the UK Government to challenge extremism have had Myths and a long development period, and since 2015, public sector bodies such as schools, universities, prisons and NHS trusts have had a legal responsibility to Misunderstandings: have an awareness and understanding of the risks posed by radicalisation, and Understanding Opposition to to ensure that their staff understand the processes around radicalisation. Referred

The Prevent Strategy to as the Prevent Duty, this policy aims to identify and support individuals before they commit criminal offences or do harm to themselves or others. Despite this

Centre for the Response to Radicalisation and Terrorism aim, as well as the clear threat from home-grown violent extremism in the UK, Policy Paper No. 7 (2016) a well-organised campaign to undermine Prevent has developed in recent years

Rupert Sutton and has intensified since the Prevent Duty has come into force. Developed and

The Henry Jackson Society September 2016 promoted by extremist groups, this campaign has since been joined by civil rights activists, union staff from sectors subject to the Prevent Duty, and students.

This report examines the development of the Prevent Duty and outlines the policies and services which have been put in place to ensure those at risk of radicalisation get the support they need. It then examines the narrative of the anti-Prevent campaign, addressing the myths and misunderstandings which have grown up around the duty and breaking the criticisms down into a number of themes which are used to make misleading attacks on the policy, including accusations that anti-Muslim prejudice is an inherent part of Prevent, that the strategy chills off freedom of expression and political activism, and that it will see sector staff forced to spy on individuals within their care or using their services. It highlights the spreading of false or exaggerated stories of referrals and the exploitation of a lack of knowledge about Prevent processes, and seeks to debunk the existing myths. The report’s findings make it clear that an organised campaign to undermine the Prevent Duty does exist, and highlight the importance of providing practitioners with the tools necessary to rebut the claims made by those who oppose efforts to challenge radicalisation in the UK.

Front Cover Photos: Back Cover Photos: Event: Refuting Balfour’s Detractors. Rt Douglas Murray Hon Michael Gove MP, Ambassadors Mark Regev, Dore Gold, and Alan Baker, Davis Lewin Prof Andrew Roberts, Dr. Alan Mendoza Dr. Alan Mendoza and Yair Hirschfeld Dr. Andrew Foxall Publication: The Prevent Duty in Higher Education: Managing External Speakers on Campus Event: The Wealth of Humans: Work and its Absence in the Twenty-First Century. Dr. Alan Mendoza, Ryan Avent

Quarterly Review Winter 2016 3 Publications continued

Putin’s Useful Idiots: Britain’s Left, Right and Russia Dr. Andrew Foxall Russian President Vladimir Putin’s flirtations with the UK have had a long history. This report provides a detailed investigation into links between individuals and groups on the Putin’s Useful Idiots: fringes of British politics and their Russian counterparts, documenting how individuals and Britain’s Left, Right organisations across the British political spectrum have established connections with Russian and Russia associates, many of which are funded or supported by the Kremlin to undermine the West. The paper reveales that over the past five years, there has been a marked tendency for European populists from both the left and the right to establish connections with Russia. In Russia Studies Centre Policy Paper No. 10 (2016) the UK, individuals, movements, and parties on both sides of the political spectrum have

Dr Andrew Foxall deepened their ties with Russia. Some individuals have praised Putin and voiced their The Henry Jackson Society October 2016 support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine; others have travelled to Moscow and elsewhere to participate in events organised by the Kremlin or Kremlin-backed organisations; yet more have appeared on Russia’s propaganda networks. Some movements have even aligned themselves with Kremlin-backed organisations in Russia who hold views diametrically opposed to their own; this is particularly the case for left-leaning organisations in the UK, which have established ties with far-right movements in Russia.

In an era when marginal individuals and parties in the UK are looking for greater influence and exposure, Russia makes for a frequent point of ideological convergence, and Putin makes for a deceptive and dangerous friend. But what does this mean for the UK? And what can other countries learn from this experience? The paper makes several recommendations in response to these questions.

Egypt, Hamas and Islamic State’s Sinai Province Tom Wilson

Since the mid-2000s, Jihadist elements in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula have targeted Western tourists at Red Sea resorts. A decade on, it was Islamic State (IS) linked militants that carried out the bombing of the Russian passenger jet from Sharm el-Sheikh. This paper highlights the enduring threat posed by the Islamic State’s control of Egypt’s Sinai province. It reveals that, with assistance from Hamas’s military wing in Gaza, Islamic State militants in the Sinai have been able to evade the Egyptian military. Since the summer of 2016, the Egyptian military has made some progress in degrading elements of Wilayat Sinai’s operational capabilities. Nevertheless, the risk of groups linked to Islamic State becoming resurgent in the Sinai remains a distinct possibility. The paper warns that if Islamic State continues to lose ground in Iraq and Syria, we may see the organisation redoubling its efforts to advance in other territories, certainly in Libya, but potentially also in the Sinai. It suggests that the Western strategy for dealing with Islamic State and its offshoots must take a comprehensive look at confronting the organisation.

4 Winter 2016 Quarterly Review Publications continued

Securing the Foundations: The Secular Alternatives to Sharia Investigatory Powers Bill and British Councils Intelligence Dr Machteld Zee Robin Simcox This essay examines the common misconception of Sharia Councils as tribunals for arbitration and The Investigatory Powers (IP) Bill, which was passed in the House mediation, when their key concern is with womens of Commons in June 2016, updates the laws pertaining to the UK requests for religious divorces. In fact, 95% of the government’s investigatory powers, consolidates part of these laws in cases brought in front of Sharia Councils – hundreds one piece of legislation, and provides more transparency and oversight per year per council – relate to divorce requests from regarding the state’s capacity to collect communications and content women. The paper illustrates how, since Sharia law data. It is primarily a defensive Bill, which seeks to prevent intelligence does not provide women with the same rights as men and security forces from losing the ability to carry out intelligence to exit marriages, and because a secular judge cannot work. It also highlights and strengthens the safeguards built to protect end a religious marriage, Muslim women in the UK abuse of the state’s intelligence gathering capacity. Critics of the Bill, (and elsewhere) are kept in ‘marital captivity’, often however, which include privacy campaigners and politicians, claim unable to escape abusive husbands. It claims that it offers insufficient privacy safeguards, while formalising the state’s while Sharia is fundamentally discriminatory against ability to collect massive amounts of data on regular citizens, an women and Sharia Councils operate to enforce this, affront – they argue – to civil liberties. these religious ‘courts’ continue to operate undisturbed This paper’s contention is that such arguments are misguided. The in the UK, violating both women’s personal freedom paper focuses on the areas of the IP Bill that have proved most and the basic democratic principle of equality before contentious: bulk powers, encryption, and Internet Connection Records. the law. It sets out the elements contained within the Bill and their implication The essay further suggests that the Arbitration and for the UK’s security in detail, to afford an accurate assessment of Mediation Services (Equality) Bill, introduced by the constituent parts of this debate. The paper’s assessment is that Baroness Cox, may prove to be helpful in curtailing examining bulk data at scale will allow analysts to look for patterns, to the power of Sharia Councils, but that the government rule people out of inquiries, to pursue those who need pursuing and should do more in this regard. It argues that instead to do so at speed. These abilities are key to intelligence work being of embracing the romantic idea that Sharia ‘may’ be done to protect UK citizens, both at home and abroad. compatible with democracy and human rights, and The paper argues that being one of the most comprehensive that there ‘may’ be discriminatory practices which can frameworks for laying out a government’s powers of interception be cured by seeking ‘best practices’, the government and other investigatory powers in the world, the IP Bill should be a should take a firm stance against Sharia law instead. template for other nations to follow.

Quarterly Review Winter 2016 5 Events

Raising Freedom’s Banner: How Peaceful Demonstrations Have Changed the World

On 22nd September, Paul Harris – founder of the Bar Human Rights Committee of England and Wales – discussed his new book Raising Freedom’s Banner, exploring the history of street demonstrations and how they remain relevant to freedom of expression. Harris was inspired by the experience of Falun Gong in protesting in Hong Kong, following which he became aware of the paucity of literature on the history of protest. Harris referred to the events of London in 1795, when the Government suppressed pro-reform protests. He then plotted the history of protest from the Battle of Waterloo through the Peterloo Massacre to Reform Protests in the 1830s. With the development of democracy, he claimed, the number of demonstrations increased. He argued that peaceful protests prompt governments to respond as, if they fail to do so, Gray Sergeant, Paul Harris people may turn to violence.

Todd Buchholz Dr Alan Mendoza, Ryan Avent

The Price of Prosperity: Why Rich The Wealth of Humans: Work Nations Fail and How to Renew and its Absence in the Twenty- Them First Century

On 22nd September, former White House Economist Todd On 27th September, Senior Editor of The Economist Ryan Buchholz discussed the argument in his book The Price Avent, discussing his new book The Wealth of Humans, of Prosperity that nations are as likely to unravel following proposed that technological development has caused a periods of prosperity as they are following periods of decline in the share of income going to labourers and a rise destitution. For Buchholz, globalisation has precipitated in inequality. This, he argued, has resulted in the emergence the ‘age of anxiety’ – an era marked by narcissism and its of political figures willing to tap into the feelings of frustration embodiment, Donald Trump. Buchholz then went on to discuss that underlie these developments. Despite this he noted that America’s burgeoning public debt, with life expectancy and specific workers, such as computer programmers, have the number of Americans not economically active increasing. experienced a surge in demand for their labour. In terms of Buchholz then turned to patriotism, the loss of which leads to solutions, governments could, according to Avent, attempt widespread narcissism, and argued that patriotism itself is a to better prepare workers by investing more in education good thing. Buchholz also argued that the twin demographic and infrastructure. Avent further proposed a transformation challenges of an ageing population and a greater number of of the welfare state, with subsidised wages, limited working young men than women would prevent China from becoming hours, greater common ownership and a universal basic the world’s predominant economic superpower. income.

6 Winter 2016 Quarterly Review Events continued

Global Inequality: A New Approach for the Age of Globalization

On 3rd October, Branko Milanovic, Senior Scholar at the Luxembourg Income Study Center, was invited to discuss his book Global Inequality: A New Approach for the Age of Globalization. He began by defining global inequality as ‘income inequality between all citizens of the world.’ He explained how the technological advances of the West aided the speed of this divide, but noted that now the rate of increase of inequality has slowed down due to the rise of East Asian economies such as China. He argued that globalisation has been beneficial to groups that experienced income growth, but detrimental to poorer people in Western countries, despite them remaining in the top 25% of the world’s earners. He concluded by predicting a political fallout from those negatively affected from globalisation, and claimed that governments Branko Milanovic must learn how to better deal with this in the future.

How Nonviolent Revolutions Work

On 5th October, Srdja Popovic, Leader of the anti-Milosevic demonstrations in Serbia, was invited to discuss the extent of success that non-violent protests have had against autocratic forces. Popovic explained that for these campaigns to be influential, they must be united in their aims, have a coherent plan, and avoid degenerating into violence, with a single act of violence having far-reaching negative consequences for a campaign. He also spoke about the importance of ‘Laughtivism,’ which links success to a campaign’s sense of humour, using enthusiasm to break fear and apathy, attracting more followers. However, Popovic concluded by questioning the application of non-violent protests in the digital age, when faced with new threats such

Srdja Popovic, Emma Webb as non-state actors and cyber warfare, and claimed that leaders must work together to deal with such threats.

Promoting Human Rights, Civil Society and Democracy in Russia

On 6th October, The Henry Jackson Society welcomed a range of speakers to comment on the human rights challenges facing Russia today. Natalia Taubina, Director of the Public Verdict Foundation, opened the discussion with the topic of Foreign Agent Law, claiming it was used as a tool by the government to marginalise NGOs in their fight for human rights, and that the forced liquidation of many of these groups signified a worrying end for the freedom of assembly in Russia. Questions and Answers to the rest of the panel saw Valentina Cherevatenko of the Women of the Don Foundation speak out against domestic abuse, Dmitri Bartenev, Professor of International Law at St. Petersburg University, argue for a case-by-case approach to human rights infringements, and Grigory Melkonyants of independent election monitor Golos call on Western organisations to keep better tabs on their Russian counterparts. Robert Latypov of the Perm section of the International Memorial Society concluded Natalia Taubina, Valentina Cherevatenko, Dmitri Bartenev, Grigory Melkonyants, Dr by claiming that the challenge ahead will be in removing social apathy from society Andrew Foxall and instead turning it into civic activism.

Quarterly Review Winter 2016 7 Events continued

Gordon Dee Smith, Tom Wilson

A Fork in the Road: Looking Ahead at US Foreign Policy under Trump or Clinton

On 10th October, Gordon Dee Smith, CEO of Strategic Worth Dying For: The Power and Insight Group, was invited to share his predictions for Politics of Flags American foreign policy under either a Trump or a Clinton On 13th October, The Henry Jackson Society welcomed administration. Dee Smith claimed there would clearly be Tim Marshall, former Editor of Sky News, to discuss his differences, but that shared constraints of public opinion and book Worth Dying For: The Power and Politics of Flags. ‘Maximalism’ (the idea that foreign policy is cyclic) would Marshall began by explaining that flags are the visual somewhat negate extreme policy shifts. He argued that a representation of our histories, hopes and cultures, using Trump administration would likely focus on tighter borders the American flag as a reference to the thirteen British and a Jacksonian policy of ‘putting America and Americans colonies. He then highlighted the political importance first’, which could lead to re-evaluations of NATO’s role. A of flags, using the Arab flag revolt of 1916 to illustrate Clinton Presidency, he claimed, would be more likely to the historical meanings of many Arab flags as we know continue the Obama era, upholding the liberal international them today. Finally, he spoke of new flags used to send order and further entrenching the Westphalian system, but social messages, such as the LGBT ‘rainbow’ flag that with more emphasis on human rights. Smith concluded by has become a symbol of acceptance, and spoke of the claiming that ultimately, regardless of who won the election, significance of countries that refuse to fly it. America is in for a bumpy ride.

The Euro and the Battle of Ideas

On 18th October, The Henry Jackson Society welcomed Markus Brunnermeier, Edward S. Sanford Professor at Princeton University, and Harold James, Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University, who discussed their new book The Euro and the Battle of Ideas. During the talk the speakers explored why the Euro was in trouble and how it had encountered such crises in Greece, Ireland, Spain and Italy. They argued that the core problem with the Euro lies in the philosophical differences between the founding countries of the Eurozone, particularly Germany and France. They also discussed how these seemingly incompatible differences can be reconciled in order to ensure Europe’s survival.

8 Winter 2016 Quarterly Review Events continued

The Left’s Jewish Problem: Corbyn, Israel and Anti-Semitism

On 20th October, Dave Rich, Director of Communications at the Community Security Trust, was invited to discuss his book The Left’s Jewish Problem: Corbyn, Israel and Anti-Semitism, focusing on anti-Semitism in British politics. Rich first noted the unclear definition of anti-Semitism and its uniqueness from traditional racism. Thus Leftist anti-Semitism, he argued, is often ignored and anti-Zionists can say anything at little cost. He further noted that anti-Semitic Labour representatives were suspended prior to Corbyn’s appointment, and that Corbyn is not solely culpable. Rich then traced anti-Semitism in Britain to the rise of the ‘New Left’ in the 1960s, which labelled Zionism a colonial ideology which then gained popularity during the 1980s. This has consequently helped turn anti-Zionism into anti-Semitism. Rich concluded that Labour-Jewish relations were still repairable but that Labour must better understand the roots of its anti- Dave Rich, Davis Lewin Semitism problem.

General Yosef Kuperwasser, Douglas Murray James Kirchick, Sir Peter Bottomley

Power Dynamics in the Middle East: The Rise of Trump: What Donald Trump The Ever-Changing Constellation Means for the World On 20th October, General Yosef Kuperwasser, former On 24th October, the Washington-based journalist and foreign Senior Officer in the Israeli military intelligence, discussed correspondent James Kirchick discussed the nature of Trump’s Middle Eastern power dynamics. He began by explaining possible election. He began by rejecting popular explanations the differences between the approach of Radical Islam for Trump’s ascension to power like the high numbers of poor/ towards Western culture, and that of more pragmatic uneducated voters. Furthermore, Kirchick argued that although Islamic voices. Kuperwasser then highlighted Iran’s ability Trump promulgates anti-immigration rhetoric, his base of support to exploit Western unpreparedness by constantly testing was not driven by the economic impact of illegal immigration. Western responses to radical activity, thereby allowing Kirchick then criticised Trump for repudiating traditional Republican Iran freedom to develop its weaponry. Kuperwasser values like strong American global presence. He argued that thus predicted future Iranian domination of the Middle Trump does not hold a particular set of values, but rather he East and an ability to acquire nuclear weaponry within views foreign policy in business terms, which explains his 15 years. Since Iran lacks real regional opposition, the criticism of NATO. Kirchick then claimed xenophobia as the main burden of confronting radicals may fall entirely on Israel, driver of Trump’s success, deriving from a fear that whites will which already risks isolation from those who believe that soon become a minority in America. Finally, Kirchick discussed the Palestinians favour peace. Kuperwasser concluded Russia’s interest in Trump and how it subsequently interfered by challenging the notion that radicals’ grievance with during elections to promote US dysfunctionality. the West is based solely on past misbehaviours against Muslims.

Quarterly Review Winter 2016 9 Events continued

All the Kremlin’s Men: Inside the Court of Vladimir Putin

On 31st October 2016, Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar was invited to discuss his new book All the Kremlin’s Men: Inside the Court of Vladimir Putin, which focuses on Putin’s manipulative inner circle and the irrationality of its decision- making. This circle’s members share Putin’s nostalgia for a Russian superpower and its restoration is their main concern. Zygar explained the difficulty of obtaining consistent accounts from such members, concluding that “all of them were lying” and that their decisions are illogical responses to external events. Putin’s strategy rests on two key influences, according to Zygar: his ‘people of Saturday’ (to discuss political decisions) and his ‘people of Sunday’ (to discuss everything else), whose meetings lack coordination and lead to fragmented dogmas. Zygar concluded that no-one truly knows Putin’s current Mikhail Zygar, Dr Andrew Foxall strategy and that the only thing predictable about Russia is its unpredictability.

Tibetan Democracy-in-Exile and the Future of Sino-Tibetan Relations

On 1st November, hosted by Fabian Hamilton MP, Tibetan Sikyong (Prime Minister) Dr Lobsang Sangay discussed Tibetan democracy and the future of Sino-Tibetan relations. He began by examining Tibet’s achievements in developing a functioning government based on democratic principles, and mentioned governmental success in maintaining schools, settlements and monasteries despite a tiny annual budget. Dr Sangay then discussed the history of Sino-Tibetan relations and his own hopes of China accepting an autonomous Tibet in the future. While mentioning Tibet’s difficulty in receiving support from international organisations due to Chinese pressure, Dr Sangay expressed preference for open discussions (instead of covert means) to persuade China of possible autonomy. He concluded that, despite little progress in recent decades, other countries have given him hope for an agreement with China Fabian Hamilton MP, Tibetan Sikyong in the future.

Boots on the Ground: Britain and her Army since 1945

On 2nd November, The Henry Jackson Society welcomed General The Lord Dannatt to discuss his new book Boots on the Ground: Britain and her Army since 1945. Given the time constraints, Lord Dannatt’s condensing of the history of the British army since 1945 was remarkable. Of particular interest were his opening remarks, in which he discussed the significance of the British army with regard to the defeat of Nazi Germany and the role that the military played in the formation of the State of Israel. Lord Dannatt concluded by contradicting Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ theory by asserting that the end of the Cold War and the 9/11 attacks had been extremely important for the British army.

10 Winter 2016 Quarterly Review Events continued

The World’s Dictatorship Crisis

On 2nd November, The Henry Jackson Society and the Rt Hon the Lord Trimble invited Thor Halvorssen, President and CEO of the Human Rights Foundation, to speak about combatting dictatorships around the world. In his opening remarks, Halvorssen noted that over 50 percent of the world’s populations live under dictatorships of varying degrees of oppressiveness. He argued that governments, global governmental bodies, and international charities cannot be trusted to pursue the cause of freedom for these people. Instead, Halvorssen claimed that activists should go straight to the people in need. For example, the Human Rights Foundation dropped seditious materials into North Korea using balloons. Alternatively, Halvorssen suggested that activists use pop culture to bring the crimes of dictators into the mainstream view. He concluded by noting the success his organisation has had in this regard by exposing celebrities who perform for dictators. Thor Halvorssen

Andrew Monaghan, Dr Andrew Foxall Tom Wilson, Lord Kilclooney, Dr Karen Young

The New Politics of Russia Gulf Foreign Aid in Times of Fiscal

On 14th November, Dr Andrew Monaghan, Senior Research Austerity Fellow at Chatham House, was invited to discuss his book On 17th November, hosted by Lord Kilclooney, Dr Karen Young, The New Politics of Russia. In his talk, Dr Monaghan a Senior Resident Scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, argued that Western foreign policy with regard to Russia discussed changes to the power dynamic of the Gulf Region. has been deteriorating and ought to be improved. He Dr Young argued that the economic boom of the last decade noted that Western governments have consistently failed has allowed a more robust foreign policy to flourish, and, with to learn from their past mistakes and that there was now a it, the risk that the delicate political balance of the region may serious lack of Russian studies specialists in the UK and be nearing a tipping point. She also discussed how states in other Western countries. Dr Monaghan further argued that the region gained both the capacity and the desire to become many in the West have failed to understand the nuances of more militarily dominant in the region, and how the recent fall Russian politics, instead using Cold War-inspired epithets in oil prices has acted as a constraint on this newfound power. and attaching too much significance to Vladimir Putin. He This, in turn, has caused foreign policy to become increasingly believed we should try to reverse these trends and invest at odds with the economic and political interests of the Gulf more in Russian studies institutes in the West. States, which are struggling to come to terms with the sudden bursting of a long period of prosperity.

Quarterly Review Winter 2016 11 Events continued

Report Launch: Putin’s Useful Idiots

On 23rd November, The Henry Jackson Society and Ian Austin MP hosted an event in Parliament to mark the launch of a report by HJS Fellow and Director of the Russia Studies Centre, Dr Andrew Foxall. Putin’s Useful Idiots discusses the Kremlin’s network of political influence in the UK. Dr. Foxall argued his report was not intended as a McCarthyist witch-hunt of pro-Russian institutions, but rather to raise awareness to the issue of ever-increasing connections between the Kremlin and groups in Britain’s far left and far right, noting that this concern must be taken seriously. Author Peter Pomerantsev, who also spoke at the event, commented that the report was a catch 22 – warning people to ignore Russia at their peril, or pay Russia attention at the risk of playing into its hands. Both speakers agreed that instead of reacting to Russia’s taunting, the West must instead focus on the audience it is trying to influence. Ian Austin MP, Peter Pomerantsev

The Middle East Predicament

On 24th November, The Henry Jackson Society and Lord Palmer of Childs Hill welcomed Dr Daniel Schueftan, Director of Security Studies at the University of Haifa to Parliament, to discuss the current situation in the Middle East. Dr Schueftan argued that the entire Middle East region is now beyond repair and in a state of total collapse. This, he claimed, has consequences beyond the region as millions are fleeing their homes while local governments are unwilling to change due to their perception that change will only bring more chaos. Instead of the clichéd assertion that colonialism lies at the heart of the Middle East’s problems, Dr Schueftan argued that culture has driven the region’s demise. He claimed that women are treated poorly and that the Arab mind-set does not allow admitting a mistake, but that there is little the West can do to help other than try to maintain a level of stability.

The New Philistines

On 28th November, The Henry Jackson Society welcomed former Visiting Fellow Sohrab Ahmari back to Millbank Tower to speak about his book The New Philistines: How Identity Politics Disfigure the Arts. Ahmari introduced his polemic as a study of how the art world is being politicised at the expense of traditional forms of beauty. He suggested that themes of race, gender and sexuality have become so prevalent in the art world that they now dominate the production of all discourse. Ahmari asserted that art has, in the past, helped create a common culture relevant to a free society. The contemporary enshrining of distinct identities, however, would have a “Balkanising” effect according to Ahmari, leading to a process of alienation Sohrab Ahmari, Emma Webb whereby individuals would no longer be able to relate to one another.

12 Winter 2016 Quarterly Review Events continued

Curricula in the Middle East

On 28th November, John Spellar MP hosted Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, researcher at Tel Aviv University, and Marcus Sheff, CEO of IMPACT, in Parliament for an insightful discussion on the importance of curricula in the Middle East. The speakers noted that textbooks can either act as a barrier to radicalisation for young people, or as a facilitator to radicalisation. Curricula also represent the values that states want to pass on. Iran, for example, continues to promote a curricula of revolution and the importance of martyrdom, while Israeli curricula has had peace as its central value since around 2000. Yanarocak spoke at length about Erdogan’s focus on Islamic emphasis in Turkey’s current curricula and on Judaism being severely criticized as part of it. He remarked that he was astonished to find that the number of Jews killed in the Holocaust Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, Marcus Sheff, John Spellar MP has been omitted from Turkish school textbooks.

Rt Hon Michael Gove MP, Ambassadors Mark Regev, Dore Gold and Alan Baker, Prof Andrew Roberts, Dr. Alan Mendoza, Yair Hirschfeld Dr Andrew Foxall, Asta Skaisgiryte Liauskiene, Edward Lucas, Dr. Allan Sikk Refuting Balfour’s Detractors 25 Years On: The Baltic Countries On 29th November, The Henry Jackson Society and Since the Fall of the Soviet Union Michael Gove MP welcomed an esteemed panel of speakers in Parliament to discuss how best to defend the This event, on 29th November, was the first in a series Balfour Declaration from detractors and apologists. The of three discussing how Russia and Eastern Europe have panel included Israeli Ambassadors Mark Regev and Dore fared since the collapse of the Soviet Union 25 years ago. Gold, former Israeli Ambassador to Canada Alan Baker, Edward Lucas, Senior Editor at The Economist, recounted peacekeeping specialist Yair Hirschfeld, and author and how during the 1990s the Baltics had tried to warn the West historian Professor Andrew Roberts. The occurrence of the of Russia’s imperial intentions. Asta Skaisgiryte Liauskiene, event could not have been timelier: 2nd November 2017 Lithuanian Ambassador to the UK, drew attention to Russia’s will mark 100 years since the proclamation of the Balfour immense investment in military size and efficiency. As well as Declaration, one of the founding sources of legitimacy for the highlighting recent examples of Russian military aggression, State of Israel. The Declaration has recently come under fire the Ambassador drew attention to NATO’s comparative lack from various factions, who disagree that it should have been of military readiness in the event of further encroachment. Dr. the foundation for Israel’s establishment. The speakers at the Allan Sikk, Senior Lecturer in Comparative Politics at UCL, event, which drew nearly 200 guests, were united in their underlined the significant role of populism and liberalism in conviction that the Balfour Declaration should be a cause for aiding the Baltic States’ transition into democracy and their celebration. integration into Europe, EU and NATO.

Quarterly Review Winter 2016 13 Events continued

Ethan Gutmann, Fiona Bruce MP, Yaxue Cao, Benedict Rogers Arkady Ostrovsky, Dr Vladimir Pastukhov, Sir Andrew Wood, Robert Service

China’s Darkest Moment: the 25 Years On: Russia Since the Fall of Crackdown on Human Rights under Xi the Soviet Union

Jinping On 5th December, The Henry Jackson Society and James On 30th November, The Henry Jackson Society welcomed Gray MP hosted a highly distinguished panel of Russia Benedict Rogers, East Asia Team Leader at Christian experts, including Arkady Ostrovsky, Russia Editor at The Solidarity Worldwide, Ethan Gutmann, China analyst, and Economist, Dr Vladimir Pastukhov, Sir Andrew Wood, Yaxue Cao, Washington-based human rights lawyer, in an Associate Fellow at Chatham House, and Robert Service, event to discuss the deteriorating human rights situation in historian of the Soviet Union. The event, the second of China. The discussion was hosted by Fiona Bruce MP in three commemorating the collapse of the Soviet Union a Parliament and centred on the recently published report by quarter of a century ago, was a highly insightful discussion the Conservative Party’s Human Rights Commission on the on the topic of Russia’s past, present and future, the crackdown on human rights in China, and how the West changes it has undergone in the past 25 years, and the should respond. The speakers discussed human rights extent of its deviation from its Soviet past on issues such violations in China from kidnapping to the deterioration of as human rights and military aggression. On the one hand, free speech to organ harvesting. There were calls to the it was argued, Russia’s present human rights record is far British government to not ignore the infringements of human superior to its pre-1991 record. But on the other, Russia rights when negotiating trade deals with China, and to take still presents military aggression towards its neighbours. a firmer stance similarly to Germany, which enjoys good The panellists concluded that the West must keep an eye trade partnerships with China while maintaining a hard line on Russia, and hoped that it moves closer towards Western against human rights abuses. democratic values.

14 Winter 2016 Quarterly Review Events continued

Dr Andrew Foxall, Olexiy Solohubenko, Sir Malcom Rifkind, Ambassador Professor David Martin Jones, Shashank Joshi, Sir Hugo Swire, John Natalia Galibarenkom, Robert Brinkley CMG Hemmings, Dr. Shanker Singham

25 Years On: Ukraine Since the Fall British Policy in Asia: Charting a New of the Soviet Union Post-Brexit Strategy

On 14th December, The Henry Jackson Society welcomed On 15th December, The Henry Jackson Society held an Natalia Galibarenko, Ukrainian Ambassador to the Court of event in Parliament, hosted and chaired by Sir Hugo Swire St James, Robert Brinkley CMG, Former British Ambassador MP, to discuss the shape that British foreign policy in Asia to Ukraine, and Olexiy Solohubenko, BBC News Editor, to might and should take. The event was introduced by John reflect upon developments in Ukraine since the collapse Hemmings and included a panel of experts. Professor of the Soviet Union, the third in our series of events on David Martin Jones of Queensland University drew attention the topic. The discussion focused on the improvements to the new guiding principles required post-Brexit in order and mistakes that had been made in the last 25 years in to turn uncertainty into opportunity. Dr. Shanker Singham, Ukraine, and on the future of the nation. The three speakers Trade and Competition Lawyer, highlighted three factors acknowledged that the last 25 years have seen vast which according to him are needed for the UK to take change in the country. Ambassador Galibarenko claimed advantage of when it comes to new trade agreements: (1) that, despite Russian efforts to the contrary, Ukraine is now it must leave the Customs Union; (2) it must leave the EEA; a European and democratic nation on the map. Brinkley (3) it must have a more open agricultural market. Shashank commented that the next 25 years will be shaped by Joshi, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, addressed the Russia’s foreign policy: if it is aggressive, that would spell potential regional repercussions of Donald Trump’s recent bad news for Ukraine. Solohubenko concluded the event election, given his past criticism of One China Policy. He by advising Western leaders to examine Russia’s policy in also highlighted the past successes of the UK with Asian Ukraine for guidance and an example of how Russia plans countries and the potential for successful agreements in to act in the West over the coming years. the future.

Quarterly Review Winter 2016 15 Media

Douglas Murray interviewd on Sky News about Dr. Alan Mendoza speaks to Wall Street Fidel Castro Journal about no-fly zone over Syria

Kyle Orton on BBC World discussing the Iran Dr. Alan Mendoza on Al Jazeera discussing deal and Trump the Casey Review into Integration

Douglas Murray on Sky News discussing the Dr. Andrew Foxall interviewed on Sky News on Farage-Trump meeting how the West should respond to Putin’s Russia

16 Winter 2016 Quarterly Review Media continued

Dr. Andrew Foxall on Sky News discussing Douglas Murray interviewed on Sky News NATO deployment after Russian aggression about integration & the Casey Review

Douglas Murray on Sky News debating the Dr. Andrew Foxall on BBC Breakfast migrant crisis discussing Russian deployment to Syria

Davis Lewin interviewed on Sky News on the Rupert Sutton discussing radicalistion with migrant crisis and situation in Calais Victoria Derbyshire on BBC Two

Quarterly Review Winter 2016 17 Headlines HJS Shaped

18 Winter 2016 Quarterly Review Headlines continued

Quarterly Review Winter 2016 19 Headlines continued

20 Winter 2016 Quarterly Review Upcoming Events

Mayday: The Decline of American A Field Guide to Lies: Naval Supremacy Misinformation in Everyday Life

On 19th January, The Henry Jackson Society will host an On 23rd January, The Henry Jackson Society will host a event with Seth Cropsey, author of Mayday: The Decline unique event with the distinguished neuroscientist Daniel of American Naval Supremacy, who will be discussing the Levitin. Levitin will be discussing his book A field Guide to decline of the United States as a naval power. Cropsey served Lies, which focuses on the prevalence of misinformation as Deputy Undersecretary of the Navy during the Ronald in everyday life. Levitin, a cognitive neuroscientist Reagan and George H.W. Bush Presidential administrations, specialising in music perception and cognition, is credited and in 1991 was the principal Assistant Secretary of with fundamentally changing the way scientists think about Defense. He had also served between 1994–1998 as both auditory memory, showing through the ‘Levitin Effect’ the Director of the Heritage Foundation’s Asia Studies Center that long-term memory preserves many of the details of and the First Departmental Chairman and Professor of the musical experience that previous theorists regarded as George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies. lost during the encoding process. Levitin has also worked His works have been published in Commentary, Foreign sporadically as a stand-up comedian and joke writer, Affairs, Policy Review, The National Interest, National Review, performing at the Democratic National Convention in San and The Wall Street Journal. Francisco with Robin Williams in 1984.

Aid Delivery in Conflict Zones: Spurring Economic Growth through the Creation of Enterprise Cities

On 26th January, The Henry Jackson Society will host an event with Shanker Singham. Currently serving as the Managing Director of the Competitiveness and Enterprise Development project (CED), Singham will discuss aid delivery in conflict zones. CED works with developers and governments in developing countries to put in place the necessary regulatory environment and infrastructure that will spur economic growth through the creation of Enterprise Cities. A trade and competition lawyer as well as an author and adviser to governments and companies, Singham has authored a textbook on the subject of trade, competition and regulatory frameworks, as well as lectured, written and spoken extensively on the topic.

Quarterly Review Winter 2016 21 Upcoming Publications The Prevent Duty in Higher Education: Managing External Speakers on Campus Gray Sergeant and Rupert Sutton

Since the introduction of the Counter Terrorism and Security Act 2015, universities have been legally obligated to establish procedures to deal with extreme speakers on campus. This was introduced as efforts to tackle extremism were patchy across the Higher Education sector.

Our Student Rights campaign obtained 76 external speaker policies from English institutions in order to assess their robustness. The report’s initial findings suggest that some of the most affected institutions are making the necessary changes, but that too many are doing just the bare minimum.

Student Rights aims to use this report, which will be launched in January, to provide personalised feedback to universities and improve the quality of external speaker policies across the board.

Islamist Terrorism: Analysis of Offences and Attacks in the UK (1998-2015) Hannah Stuart

Launching in January, this report is the third by The Henry Jackson Society to provide detailed information and statistical analysis on the specificity, manifestation and development of the threat to British national security from Islamism-inspired international terrorism.

The culmination of a major study, this 1100-page document is a comprehensive collection of profiles of Islamism-inspired terrorism convictions and suicide attacks which took place in the United Kingdom between 1998 and 2015. The data is analysed in the report to forge statistical and thematic connections between Islamism-inspired terrorism convictions and attacks, assessing the proliferation of attacks and offences, individuals’ connections to terrorist groups, and the impact of training and combat experience. It also explores backgrounds, motivations, geographic spread and frequency, painting a detailed picture of the ongoing battle against radicalisation and Islamist terrorism in the UK.

This report will serve as an invaluable resource for those studying counter- terrorism and counter-radicalisation.

22 Winter 2016 Quarterly Review Upcoming Publications continued

The Case of Shakeel Begg: When Interfaith Meets Extremism Tom Wilson

In October 2016, the courts ruled against the Islamist preacher Shakeel Begg when he had sought to sue the BBC for describing him as an extremist. As became apparent during the course of the trial, Begg is indeed an extremist, and yet he is also a figure who has had extensive involvement in interfaith work, which he attempted to use against the charge of extremism.

Shakeel Begg is not a unique case. Launching in January, this report will examine a series of UK-based individuals and organisations who have been using interfaith activities to disguise their true extremist agenda, and expose the ways in which extremist organisations have attempted to exploit interfaith as a cover with which to hide their activities, as well as a means by which to legitimise themselves and gain prominence and influence within Muslim communities.

Confronting Saudi Funding for Fighting Back: Combatting Campus Extremism in the UK Parliament Radicalisation of UK Students Tom Wilson Rupert Sutton and Emma Webb It is now well-known that Saudi Arabia’s policy of exporting It is now known that at least 800 British citizens have travelled its hard-line and fundamentalist strain of Islam, Wahhabism, to Syria and Iraq to support or fight for jihadist organisations, has been fuelling global extremism and terrorism. Saudi has including Islamic State. Research shows the majority of these produced Osama bin Laden and 15 of the 19 hijackers of individuals are men in their early 20s with ‘recent connections September 11, has sent more suicide bombers than any to higher education’. Building on our previous long-standing other country to Iraq after the 2003 invasion, and has supplied experience of work in this area, this project will collect evidence more foreign fighters to the Islamic State than any country relating to UK students who travelled to Syria to create a profile other than Tunisia. of young individuals vulnerable to on-campus radicalisation. Evidence will include information on their age, gender, Recognising the problem, legislation intended to confront the upbringing, means of traveling to Syria, actions they have taken challenge of foreign-funded religious extremism has been while abroad, whether they had known accomplices or if they gaining speed in the US and Europe. In the UK, however, the attempted to radicalise others, and the student’s current status: issue is not being debated in parliament. There is clearly a killed in action, still in Syria or returned to the UK and convicted. gap between the urgent need in policy-making which tackles The project will also investigate potential factors which may foreign funding aimed at fundamental ‘religious outreach’, and have played a role in radicalising individuals during their time at the lack of appropriate legislation (and debate) to tackle it. a Higher/Further Education institution, such as the presence of To be circulated widely in parliament and among policy- extreme groups and individuals on campus or extreme material makers, this briefing paper will provide evidence and make being shared through student social media, to offer insights on the case for a Bill to be introduced to tackle foreign-funded the process of radicalisation. extremism in the UK.

Quarterly Review Winter 2016 23 Supporting HJS

The important work of The Henry Jackson Society would not be possible without the generosity and support of our dedicated donor community. As an organisation reliant entirely on private donations to fund its programme of activities, we welcome your support for either general purposes or specified projects.

A charity registered in England and Wales (charity number 1140489), HJS is able to offer tax relief on donations from UK taxpayers through the gift aid scheme, maximising the value of your donation.

US donors can benefit from tax relief by donating to The Henry Jackson Society Inc., an IRS recognised 501(c)(3) organisation eligible under US law.

To give a charitable donation, please mail contributions to: The Henry Jackson Society Millbank Tower 21-24 Millbank London, SW1P 4QP Wire details are available on request. US check and wire contributions will be processed in the US.

For more information on The Henry Jackson Society and supporting its activities, please contact: Dr. Alan Mendoza, Executive Director, at [email protected]

www.henryjacksonsociety.org

24 Winter 2016 Quarterly Review