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Integration of Remote Sensing, Modeling, and Field Approaches for Rangeland Management and Endangered Species Conservation in Central Asia

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Integration of Remote Sensing, Modeling, and Field Approaches for Rangeland Management and Endangered Species Conservation in Central Asia SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry Digital Commons @ ESF Dissertations and Theses Spring 5-17-2018 Integration of remote sensing, modeling, and field approaches for rangeland management and endangered species conservation in Central Asia Mikhail Paltsyn [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.esf.edu/etds Recommended Citation Paltsyn, Mikhail, "Integration of remote sensing, modeling, and field approaches for rangeland management and endangered species conservation in Central Asia" (2018). Dissertations and Theses. 36. https://digitalcommons.esf.edu/etds/36 This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by Digital Commons @ ESF. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ ESF. For more information, please contact [email protected], [email protected]. INTEGRATION OF REMOTE SENSING, MODELING, AND FIELD APPROACHES FOR RANGELAND MANAGEMENT AND ENDANGERED SPECIES CONSERVATION IN CENTRAL ASIA by Mikhail Yu. Paltsyn A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy Degree State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry Syracuse, New York May 2018 Department of Environmental and Forest Biology Approved by: James P. Gibbs, Major Professor Kelley J. Donaghy, Chair, Examining Committee Neil H. Ringler, Department Chair S. Scott Shannon, Dean, The Graduate School i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This thesis was completed in collaboration with many wonderful people I am very grateful to. First of all, I am very grateful to James P. Gibbs, my Major Professor, for his overall support of my work, wise guidance, and kind assistance on all stages of the thesis development. I would like to thank Giorgos Mountrakis for his wonderful lectures on remote sensing and spatial analysis, bright ideas, advice on methodology, and kind review of my thesis chapters. I very thankful to Liza Iegorova, my friend, faithful assistant and co-author of my publications, for her great help and hard work on all stages of modeling and analysis of my data. I am extremely grateful to members of my Steering Committee: Jacqueline Frair, for her inspiring course on the Applied Wildlife Science and fair comments on the thesis chapters; Paul Hirsch, for his kind guidance on conservation ethics, community-based conservation, tradeoffs between conservation and development, and his wonderful course on the climate change issues; Rodney Jackson, for his inspiration to devote 15 years of my life to conservation of snow leopards; and Kelley Donaghy for her kind chairing of my Examining Committee. I am very thankful to my field collaborators and friends who spent countless days, shared unforgettable camp fires with me in the mountains of Altai-Sayan, and provided invaluable help in collecting data for this thesis: Sergey Spitsyn, Alexander Kuksin, Stepan Denisov, Aduchy Beletov, Sandrash Samoilov, Atay Ayatkhan, Munkhtogtogh Ochirjav, Onon Yondon, Andrey Chelyshev, Leonid Baylagasov, Yury Robertus, Khairat, Bagdat, Jukhan, Totembek, and Hamish Gibbs. I am grateful to my parents, Yury and Elena Paltsyn, for their overall support, love and understanding. Finally, I am very thankful to my wife Svetlana Kozlova, and my sons Egor, Kirill, and Nikolay for their love, care, and inspiration to complete this thesis. This work was funded by the United State Agency for International Development (USAID) Climate Change Resilient Development Program (grant # CCRDCS0007), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Land Cover Land Use Change Program (grant # NNX15AD42G), and World Wide Fund for Nature (grants # WWF566, WWF706, and WWF837). ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................................... iv LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................................... v ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................ vii INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 1 CHAPTER 1: ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION OF GRASSLAND COVER IN WESTERN MONGOLIA USING MODIS-DERIVED VEGETATION INDICES ........................................................ 6 CHAPTER 2: INTEGRATING TRADITIONAL ECOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE AND REMOTE SENSING FOR MONITORING RANGELAND DYNAMICS IN THE ALTAI MOUNTAIN REGION .................................................................................................................................................................... 21 CHAPTER 3: FORECASTING OF SNOW LEOPARD (PANTHERA UNCIA) AND ALTAI ARGALI (OVIS AMMON AMMON) HABITAT DYNAMICS IN THE ALTAI-SAYAN ECOREGION UNDER A CHANGING CLIMATE ......................................................................................................................... 39 CHAPTER 4: TIGER RE-ESTABLISHMENT POTENTIAL TO FORMER CASPIAN TIGER (PANTHERA TIGRIS VIRGATA) RANGE IN CENTRAL ASIA .......................................................... 62 CHAPTER 5: SNOW LEOPARD CONSERVATION IN RUSSIA: LESSONS LEARNED OVER 15 YEARS ....................................................................................................................................................... 83 CONCLUSIONS....................................................................................................................................... 101 APPENDICES .......................................................................................................................................... 104 APPENDIX 1. SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS FOR CHAPTER 3 ............................................. 104 APPENDIX 2: REPORT MODELING OF TIGER AND ITS PREY POPULATIONS IN THE BALKHASH LAKE REGION AS THE BASIS FOR ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF THE TIGER REINTRODUCTION PROGRAM IN KAZAKHSTAN ..................................................................... 117 VITA ......................................................................................................................................................... 163 iii LIST OF TABLES Chapter 1 Table 1. Pixel reliability for 92, 1x1 km sampled blocks for MODIS Terra and Aqua datasets for May, June, and July 2013 in the Sailugem area of western Mongolia…………………………….11 Table 2. Linear (ax+b) and second-order polynomial regressions (ax2+bx+c) describing the relationship between July 2013 Aqua- and Terra-derived MODIS vegetation indices and percentage of vegetation cover on 1x1 km blocks with QA=0 sampled in Sailugem Range in western Mongolia, July-August 2013…………………………………………………………….12 Table 3. Coefficient of determinations (R²) for second-order polynomial regressions describing the relationship between May, June and July 2013 Aqua- and Terra-derived MODIS vegetation indices and percentage of vegetation cover on 1x1 km blocks with QA=0 (see Table 1) sampled in Sailugem Range, western Mongolia, July-August 2013………………………………………….13 Chapter 2 Table 1. Parameters and coefficients of determinations (R²) from multiple linear regression relating herder-derived forage value to % vegetation cover and vegetation height on 1x1 km blocks (n=49) sampled in Sailugem Range in western Mongolia, July-August 2013……………………………29 Table 2. Parameters of linear regressions describing relationship between herder perception of summer pasture quality, herder agreement (Gini-Simpson Index), NDVI anomalies in June-August in the 5 km buffer zones of herder camps in Mongolia, Russia, and China portions of the Altai Mountains over the past decade…………………………………………………………………..30 Table 3. Summary of rangeland conditions across the Altai Mountain study area including mean NDVI, NDVI CV, percentage of herders that could report on pasture conditions back to 2006, and significance of NDVI influence on herder perception of pasture quality and level of agreement in Mongolia, Russia, China, and Kazakhstan over previous decade………………………………...34 Chapter 3 Table 1. Topographic and climate variables used for distribution projections for snow leopard, Altai argali, forest and desert/semidesert cover in the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion under future climate scenarios………………………………………………………………………………………….43 Chapter 4 Table 1. Estimated maximum population densities of wild boar, Bukhara deer and roe deer in the Central Asia biomes……………………………………………………………………………...65 Table 2. Estimated values of N0 and r = for wild boar, Bukhara deer, and roe deer in the Ili- Balkhash region…………………………………………………………………………………..66 Table 3. Estimated year of Caspian tiger extinction in Central Asian and adjacent countries……68 iv LIST OF FIGURES Chapter 1 Figure 1. Location of 92, 1 km2 sampling blocks measured in July-August 2013 to contrast MODIS-derived vegetation indices and percentage of vegetation ground cover in grasslands and semi-deserts of Sailugem Range, western Mongolia………………………………………………9 Figure 2. Transects used for sampling vegetation cover on each of 92 1x1km blocks aligned with the MODIS grid in the Sailugem area of western Mongolia, July-August 2013…………………10 Figure 3. First and second order polynomial regressions describing the relationship between July 2013 Aqua- and Terra-derived MODIS vegetation indices and percentage of vegetation cover at sampling sites with QA=0 in western Mongolia………………………………………………….11
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