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University of Brasília Institute of Political Science Graduation Program in Political Science UNIVERSITY OF BRASÍLIA INSTITUTE OF POLITICAL SCIENCE GRADUATION PROGRAM IN POLITICAL SCIENCE RAFAEL GEORGES DA CRUZ Democracy and Social Policies for Inequality Reduction in Brazil: Representatives Policies' Congruence and Relevance - 1998-2018 Brasília, DF 2019 1 RAFAEL GEORGES DA CRUZ Democracy and Social Policies for Inequality Reduction in Brazil: Representatives Policies' Congruence and Relevance - 1998-2018 A thesis presented to the University of Brasília’s Political Science Graduation Program, as a requisite for the Doctorate in Political Science title. Prof. Dr. Lucio Remuzat Rennó Jr. Brasília, DF 2019 2 Rafael Georges da Cruz DEMOCRACY AND SOCIAL POLICIES FOR INEQUALITY REDUCTION IN BRAZIL: REPRESENTATIVES POLICIES' CONGRUENCE AND RELEVANCE – 1998-2018 A thesis presented to the Political Science Graduation Program of the Institute of Political Science – IPOL of the University of Brasília – UnB. __________________________________ Prof. Dr. Lucio Remuzat Rennó Junior IPOL/UNB Supervisor __________________________________ Prof. Dr. Frederico Bertholini Santos Rodrigues IPOL/UnB Examiner __________________________________ Prof. Dr. Fabio de Barros Correia Gomes CEFOR/Câmara dos Deputados Examiner __________________________________ Prof. Dr. Marcelo Medeiros IPEA & Princeton University External Examiner __________________________________ Profa. Dra. Debora Rezende de Almeida IPOL/UnB Alternate Examiner 3 Acknowledgements This is a personal project that involved many people. Some of them have had a choice to be involved; some have not. I am indebted to all of them for advising me, challenging me, opening time for me, and pushing me forward to deliver this project while life went on. I initially would like to thank Lucio Rennó for his invaluable guidance and assertive advice, a privilege that I’ve had for over six years, both in my M.A and my Ph.D. I would also like to thank other Professors and Researchers who have guided me along the way: Marcelo Medeiros, Lara Simielli, Lucas Mation, Simone Harnik, Fernando Gaiger, Luana Passos, and all Ipol/UnB professors from whom I had the opportunity to learn. I also take the chance to acknowledge the work of Ipol staff, who have been incredibly supportive all those years. There is a large group of people who’s had a fundamental role in keeping me going. To some of them, I want to namely express sincere gratitude: Mel Bornstein, Mirella Bini, Gabriela Bini, Rodolfo Egli, Ary Bornstein, Tina Bornstein, Georgette Cruz, Manoel Cruz, Ivan Marques, and Gabriela Gambi. I am surely not making justice to many others who, like them, have taken care of and played with Lia and Laila while I was in front of a laptop. I was lucky to find patient people in every organization I worked for, who have allowed me to use part of my working time for my thesis. Because of that, I want to thank the PSOL caucus in the House of Representatives, Oxfam Brasil, Oxfam International, Greenpeace, and Luminate. Finally, I want to express my gratitude to my beloved family: Mel – my wife and partner – and my two little girls who, without knowing, have been incredibly patient. To the three of them, I dedicate this work. 4 Abstract A long-standing question on the capacity of democracies to reduce inequalities is yet open. Brazil offers a case of study, as a country where socio-economic indicators have significantly advanced for those at the bottom of the social pyramid after the re-democratization. Nevertheless, the current context brings questions on the sustainability of Brazilian democracy to deliver redistributive policies in the long run. The extent to which our political system is capable of responding to redistributive demands is still to be tested, and this work seeks to advance this field. The central question of this research is, 'how responsive are Brazilian Representatives to their constituencies on health and education demands?'. The answer to such a question is sought in the studies of political 'congruence,' under a broader field of political representation studies. It considers individual Brazilian Representatives across 5 Legislatures (51st to 55th, covering 1998 to 2018). It calculates their electoral dependence on unattended populations – measured through weighting socio-economic indicators on health, education, and income on votes at a municipality level – and then comparing it to the weight of proactive legislative production on health and education on the total proactive legislative proposals for each Representative. It adopted a model of beta inflated distribution to measure the correlation of such proportions. It further analyzed the approved proposals over the 5 Legislatures and their characteristics by the proponent. The results point to a significant congruence of education- related policies and dependence on votes from municipalities with high rates of illiteracy, school attendance, poverty, and low rates of infant mortality. I did not find such alignment for health policies, which responded more to the Representative's declared profession than its constituencies' socio-economic characteristics. Responsiveness has decreased over time, while the House saw a progressive change in their aggregated constituencies – which have better health, are more educated, less poor and unequal – and gradually more Representatives have been presenting education and health proposals. Representatives' policy delivery, on the other hand, has been limited to rules and rights, not affecting budgetary expansion overtime, and very much focused on diffusing benefits rather than concentrating them. This corroborates other previous similar studies. Keywords: Political representation; congruence; democracy; inequality; public policy. 5 Resumo A capacidade das democracias de reduzirem desigualdades ainda é uma questão aberta. O Brasil oferece um caso de estudo, como um país em que os indicadores socioeconômicos avançaram significativamente para aqueles que estão na base da pirâmide social após a redemocratização. No entanto, o contexto atual traz questões sobre a sustentabilidade da democracia brasileira para efetivamente implementar políticas redistributivas a longo prazo. A extensão em que nosso sistema político é capaz de responder a demandas redistributivas ainda precisa ser testada, e este trabalho procura avançar nesse campo. A questão central desta pesquisa é 'até que ponto os deputados federais brasileiros respondem aos seus eleitores nas demandas de saúde e educação?'. A resposta a essa pergunta é buscada nos estudos de "congruência" política, localizado em um campo mais amplo de estudos de representação política. Considera-se os deputados federais brasileiros individualmente em cinco legislaturas (51ª à 55ª, abrangendo 1998 a 2018). Calcula-se sua dependência eleitoral de populações não assistidas – medida por meio da ponderação de indicadores socioeconômicos de saúde, educação e renda nos votos em nível municipal – e depois comparando-os ao peso da produção legislativa proativa em saúde e educação nas propostas legislativas proativas para cada representante. Adotou-se um modelo de distribuição beta inflacionada para se medir a correlação de tais proporções. Além disso, analisou-se as propostas aprovadas sobre as 5 legislaturas e suas características por proponente. Os resultados apontam para uma congruência significativa de políticas relacionadas à educação e dependência de votos de municípios com altos índices de analfabetismo, frequência escolar, pobreza e baixas taxas de mortalidade infantil. Esse alinhamento não foi encontrado nas políticas de saúde, que responderam mais à profissão declarada do deputado federal do que às características socioeconômicas dos seus eleitores. A capacidade de resposta diminuiu ao longo do tempo, enquanto a Câmara Federal viu uma mudança progressiva em sua base eleitoral – que tem melhor saúde, maior instrução, menos pobreza e desigualdade – e, gradualmente, mais deputados têm apresentado propostas de educação e saúde. A entrega final da política pública por deputados federais, por outro lado, foi limitada a regras e direitos, não afetando expansão orçamentária, e prioritariamente dispersando benefícios. Isso corrobora estudos prévios de cunho similar. Palavras-chave: Representação política; congruência; democracia; desigualdade; políticas públicas. 6 Figures and tables index FIGURES Figure 1. Flow of congruence and interconnections ................................................................ 23 Figure 2. Distribution of life expectancy weighted vote – EXPvote in five Legislatures of the House of Representatives ......................................................................................................... 49 Figure 3. Distribution of infant mortality at age 1 weighted vote – IMRvote in five Legislatures of the House of Representatives .......................................................................... 49 Figure 4. Distribution of elderly ration weighted vote – ERAvote in five Legislatures of the House of Representatives ......................................................................................................... 50 Figure 5. Distribution of average years of schooling weighted vote – AYSvote in five Legislatures of the House of Representatives .......................................................................... 51 Figure 6. Distribution of school attendance rate weighted vote – SATvote in five Legislatures of the House of Representatives .............................................................................................
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