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REELEIÇÃO DE PREFEITOS: UMA ANÁLISE DAS ELEIÇÕES DE 2004, 2008, 2012 E 2016 PARA OS EXECUTIVOS MUNICIPAIS DO BRASIL

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REELEIÇÃO DE PREFEITOS: UMA ANÁLISE DAS ELEIÇÕES DE 2004, 2008, 2012 E 2016 PARA OS EXECUTIVOS MUNICIPAIS DO BRASIL REELEIÇÃO DE PREFEITOS: UMA ANÁLISE DAS ELEIÇÕES DE 2004, 2008, 2012 e 2016 PARA OS EXECUTIVOS MUNICIPAIS DO BRASIL EVENTO ONLINE 19 A 23 DE OUTUBRO DE 2020 ÁREA TEMÁTICA: ELEIÇÕES E REPRESENTAÇÃO POLÍTICA Renato Barreto de Souza Pós-doutorando do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Sociologia Política da UENF Lattes: lattes.cnpq.br/4208615645719699 Vitor de Moraes Peixoto Professor Associado do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Sociologia Política da UENF Lattes: lattes.cnpq.br/4676437210734787 João Gabriel Ribeiro Pessanha Leal Mestrando em Ciência Política na UNIRIO Lattes: lattes.cnpq.br/9277299850069272 Matheus Virginio Harduim Machado Graduando em Ciências Sociais na UENF Lattes: lattes.cnpq.br/8710933735097792 1 RESUMO O estudo investiga a reeleição de prefeitos no Brasil nas eleições de 2000 até as eleições 2020. O trabalho se guia pela seguinte inquietação: quais são as características socioeconômicas dos municípios e individuais dos candidatos que afetam as chances de reeleição? Trata-se de uma pesquisa quantitativa desenvolvida a partir da montagem de um banco de dados com informações dos resultados eleitorais e das prefeituras. O estudo é operacionalizado a partir de dois objetivos principais. O primeiro é o de descrever qual é a situação do prefeito eleito no pleito eleitoral anterior na eleição seguinte, busca-se verificar a condição deste segundo a região do pais e o porte populacional do município. Em segundo momento, tendo como foco analítico o ciclo eleitoral dos prefeitos eleitos em 2012, pretende-se explicar o que leva o ocupante da cadeira do executivo municipal a reeleição partindo tanto de dados institucionais, quanto de dados relacionados à gestão. O tema da reeleição se insere em um consolidado debate acadêmico que busca desvendar as relações entre desempenho governamental e comportamento eleitoral. PALAVRAS CHAVE: Eleições Municipais; Reeleição; Competição Eleitoral. ABSTRACT The research explores the reelection of mayors in Brazil between 2000 and 2020. The work tries to answer some questions as: What are the socioeconomic characteristics of the municipalities and individual candidates that affect the chances of reelection? It is a quantitative research developed from form a database with electoral results and city halls information. The study has two main objectives: the first is describe the situation of the mayor elected in the previous election in the next race, seeking to verify the condition of the mayor according to the region of the country and the population of the municipality. Secondly, with an analytical focus on the race for mayors in 2012, it is intended to explain what makes a mayor reelected by institutional and management-related data. Reelections are part of a consolidated academic debate that seeks to unravel the relationship between government performance and electoral behavior. KEY WORDS: Municipality elections; Reelection; Electoral Competition 2 1. INTRODUÇÃO A presente pesquisa tem como objeto de estudo um fenômeno político do poder local sob o qual repousam muitas lacunas: a reeleição dos prefeitos nas cidades brasileiras. A reeleição de candidatos majoritários é um tema relativamente novo na atual experiência democrática nacional, pois sua instituição se deu pela Emenda constitucional número 16 promulgada em quatro de julho de 1997. Ocorreu-se, então, seis eleições municipais com esta nova regra (2000; 2004; 2008; 2012, 2016 e 2020). Nestes pleitos, foi instituída a possibilidade do chefe do executivo local se candidatar a mais um mandato consecutivo. A Emenda modificou uma longa tradição republicana que sempre proibiu reeleição de Presidente da República e trouxe de volta a reeleição de governadores (Presidentes de província) e intendentes (prefeitos) que eram permitidos na República Velha. Sendo assim, este trabalho investiga a reeleição de prefeitos nos municípios brasileiros nas eleições de 2000 a 2020, a referida investigação é guiada pela seguinte inquietação: quais são as características socioeconômicas dos municípios e individuais dos candidatos que afetam as chances de reeleição? A resposta a essa pergunta é realizada a partir de dois objetivos centrais. O primeiro, de caráter exploratório, descreve qual é a situação do prefeito eleito no pleito eleitoral anterior na eleição seguinte, busca-se, assim, sanar questões como: a) quantos podiam concorrer, b) quantos efetivamente se candidataram, c) qual foi a taxa de sucesso dos incumbents, d) averiguar se há uma dispersão espacial destes resultados, e) descrever se existe, sobre aspecto da característica populacional, um padrão nos municípios que mais premiam ou mais punem os candidatos prefeitos. O segundo, tendo como foco analítico o ciclo eleitoral dos prefeitos eleitos em 2012, pretende compreender o que leva o ocupante da cadeira do executivo municipal a reeleição partindo tanto de dados institucionais, quanto de dados relacionados à gestão da máquina municipal e dados individuais. Este segundo estágio tem perspectiva explicativa onde são testadas variáveis que podem influir no sucesso do incumbente, busca-se identificar aspectos da realidade municipal, do desempenho administrativo do prefeito e de suas características individuais que são responsáveis ou não pelo aumento da probabilidade de seu sucesso na reeleição. Tenta-se, assim, romper com a dicotomia presente nos estudos na área que apresentam uma certa divisão entre pesquisas que mobilizam variáveis econômicas e pesquisas focadas nas variáveis institucionais. Acredita-se que um mesmo estudo pode mobilizar estes dois tipos de informações e assim perseguir uma explicação mais completa sobre o fenômeno da reeleição dos prefeitos. A grande questão, neste sentido, é a eventual constatação de que determinada característica do governo municipal e da atuação do prefeito no remanejo da máquina aumenta a probabilidade de reeleição. 3 Este fato seria um indicador de que o processo democrático eleitoral do país é eficiente na seleção dos melhores dirigentes. Dentro deste contexto, o primeiro objetivo foi operacionalizado pela elaboração de um banco de dados contendo informações eleitorais a respeito dos prefeitos eleitos nos pleitos eleitorais de 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 e 2016; e dados sociodemográficos municipais. As informações eleitorais foram coletadas no acervo digital do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), enquanto que as sóciodemográficas no IBGE. No que se refere ao processo metodológico para realizar o segundo objetivo, contou-se na escolha de três agrupamentos de variáveis que decanta na realidade, ou seja, que operacionaliza o que chamamos de características individuas, características institucionais e características de gestão, a tabela 1 apresenta cada uma delas: Tabela 01. Variáveis que descrevem as características individuas, características institucionais e características de gestão utilizadas no trabalho 4 Fonte: Elaboração dos autores. Como o ciclo eleitoral em discussão é dos prefeitos eleitos em 2012, os dados coletados vão de 2013 ao ano de 2016. Todos os dados relacionados a gestão e o PIB per capita foram deflacionados segundo o IPCA/IBGE, tendo como base primeiro de janeiro de 2020. Para analisar o efeito multivariável dos três agrupamentos escolhidos (as variáveis independentes) sobre a reeleição do incumbentes em 2016 (a variável dependente) optou-se pela técnica de regressão logística da família binomial. Além desta seção, a pesquisa contém mais três seções. A próxima aborda o debate teórico que auxilia a compreensão do objeto estudado, a terceira seção constata os resultados da pesquisa, enquanto que a última o debate em torno dos achados encontrados como também as conclusões preliminares. 2. BIBLIOGRAFIA Em junho de 1997 o Senado federal aprovou a Emenda Constitucional nº 16/97 autorizando a reeleição de presidentes, governadores e prefeitos para um único consecutivo mandato. Era adotada pela primeira vez na história do país essa regra eleitoral para todos os entes federados e a partir de 1998 as eleições brasileiras contavam com essa possibilidade. Desde então diferentes estudos investigaram a reeleição de prefeitos produzindo um volume heterogêneo de metodologias, hipóteses e repostas para descrever esse fenômeno eleitoral. A análise dos trabalhos revela a existência de poucos consensos pairando ainda muitas dúvidas sobre diferentes aspectos da reeleição em nível local. Com intuito de esclarecer tais divergências é apresentado a seguir um resumo de alguns estudos deste tema divididos em quatro blocos distintos: o primeiro formado por análises centradas na investigação dos impactos da reeleição sobre as contas públicas, um segundo bloco de pesquisas preocupadas em descrever o fenômeno da reeleição e analisar seus efeitos eleitorais, o terceiro grupo de trabalhos interessados em testar o chamado “efeito incumbent”, ou seja, a vantagem eleitoral dos prefeitos na disputa pela reeleição e finalmente o quatro grupo de pesquisas que busca investigar a relação da reeleição de prefeitos com a corrupção. A linha de pesquisa sobre a reeleição de prefeitos no Brasil foi aberta por economistas responsáveis por prestar relevante contribuição ao debate acadêmico com trabalhos marcados pela variedade de desenhos de pesquisas em sua maioria abordando a eleição de 2000. Em linhas gerais estes textos procuraram identificar correlações entre as características dos municípios, as políticas públicas locais e a reeleição dos prefeitos. Mobilizando um grande número de variáveis nas quais destacam-se as análises das contas públicas, especialmente a política fiscal. (Araújo,
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