FUTURE OF AFRICAN CITIES PROJECT SPECIAL REPORT – JANUARY 2020 Where the Rubber Hits the Road Olusegun Obasanjo, Juan Carlos Pinzón, Greg Mills, Ray Hartley, Nchimunya Hamukoma, Sarah Calburn, Nicola Doyle, Dianna Games, Archimedes Muzenda, Emily van der Merwe, David Kilcullen, Dickie Davis Strengthening Africa’s economic performance Where the Rubber Hits the Road Contents Forewords .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 3 Olusegun Obasanjo .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 3 Juan Carlos Pinzón .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 5 About the Contributors .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 7 Preface and Acknowledgements .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 9 Introduction: The Rise and Rise of the African City .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 11 Section One: International Comparisons .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..22 .. The Asian Experience .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 24 The Singapore Story .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 24 Indonesia: Infrastructure and Iconography .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 31 Latin America .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 36 Security in Recife – Pact for Life .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 36 The Security Challenges of Rio .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 38 Curitiba and the Bus Rapid Transport .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 41 The Transformation of Medellín .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 44 Honduras: Urban Overstretch in San Pedro Sula .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 52 Summary of Observations .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 58 Section Two: African City Case-Studies .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 60 Lagos: The Relentless City .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 60 Hargeisa: Invisible City.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 74 Buffalo City: From Lifeless Economy to Lifestyle Opportunity .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 88 Mombasa: Gateway City .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 99 Cape Town: A Tale of Two Transitions.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 116 Rabat and Salé: Bridging the Gap .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 133 Conclusion: Between Wakanda and Dystopia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 145 Endnotes .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 155 .. .. Published in January 2020 by The Brenthurst Foundation The Brenthurst Foundation (Pty) Limited PO Box 61631, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa Tel +27–(0)11 274–2096 Fax +27–(0)11 274–2097 www.thebrenthurstfoundation.org All rights reserved. The material in this publication may not be reproduced, stored, or transmitted without the prior permission of the publisher. Short extracts may be quoted, provided the source is fully acknowledged. Layout and design by Sheaf Publishing, Benoni. WHERE THE RUBBER HITS THE ROAD Forewords Olusegun Obasanjo Africa’s cities are on the rise. By 2100, Lagos organic growth is to make living there more is expected to be the world’s largest metrop- expensive than it needs to be. olis with a population touching 90 million In the case of Cape Town and Buffalo City people. Not far behind will be Kinshasa and in South Africa, the spatial problems are the Dar es Salaam. result of deliberate planning to keep races Already some 500 million people live in apart during the apartheid era, resulting in Africa’s cities. Another 800 million are pro- long distances between places of residence jected to join them by 2050 as the continent and work, which add to the transport burden. shifts to an urban majority. In most of the cities studied, high How these cities develop, grow and transport costs are contributing to the provide a liveable home for their swell- impoverishment of residents and, along with ing populations is the key to Africa’s future poor regulation and property regimes, make success or despair. the cost of doing business too high. If cities fail to provide jobs, water, elec- Mombasa and Rabat-Salé have tackled tricity, sanitation and transport, they will their legacy of uneven development aggres- become places of conflict and insecurity. If sively, improving housing stock and they grow and develop their infrastructure, showing that a concentrated effort by moti- they will become places where there is a vated authorities can make a big difference. better life for Africans. The world is looking to Africa with its The Brenthurst Foundation’s Future of youthful population as the continent that African Cities project set out to explore how will provide economic growth, markets and six African cities were facing the challenges investment opportunities in an otherwise of providing for their growing citizenry, and stagnant global economy. the policy options they require to meet their It is up to the governments of Africa – people’s needs. The cities – Lagos, Rabat-Salé, national, regional and local – to channel Cape Town, Mombasa, Hargeisa and Buffalo investment into making cities better places City – are very different from one another. to live where there are more opportunities. Yet they face many of the same The key to this, as we outlined in detail in challenges. our book Democracy Works, is good, account- What they have in common is an absence able, democratic governance. of rational spatial planning. They have The pyramid, which places national gov- not been designed to provide services and ernment at the top and local government at opportunities in the most efficient and the bottom, needs to be inverted. National cost-effective way to their ever-growing government is vitally important in setting populations. the agenda, but it is at local government level The reasons for this are very different in that the biggest difference can be made most each case. rapidly to the lives of ordinary people. This Lagos has grown rapidly, outpacing urban requires leadership, strong project manage- planning with the result that it does not ment and engineering skills and the ability have an efficient transport, water and elec- to rapidly roll out services as cities expand. tricity grid. The effect of this unchecked SPECIAL REPORT – JANUARY 2020 3 WHERE THE RUBBER HITS THE ROAD Local government that is connected to It is our hope that this volume will make a regional and national government, sharing modest contribution to increasing the under- resources and skills, will make an immediate standing of how our cities are developing difference to the lives of Africa’s people. and how we can make them better. Conversely, a failure to build effective, accountable local government and failure to meet citizens’ expectations will open the way Olusegun Obasanjo for increased crime and insecurity, leading President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, to mass migration away from Africa’s cities, 1999–2007 to Europe and beyond. Chairman: The Brenthurst Foundation SPECIAL REPORT – JANUARY 2020 4 WHERE THE RUBBER HITS THE ROAD Juan Carlos Pinzón Providing security, safety and democratic The effect was dramatic. Homicides accountability to all citizens was a central halved; kidnappings plummeted by 90%; and aspect of Colombia’s fight against guerrillas car theft more than halved. The reduction in and paramilitaries in the first part of the 21st kidnappings, in particular, brought a sense century. Cities were central to this effort, of relief and progress to all Colombians. none more so than in Medellín, which had Security improvements helped Medellín’s been beset by violence, organised crime, economy develop, creating a virtuous cycle and illegal armed groups across the political of governance, growth and stability. Foreign spectrum. direct investment rose, enabling further A close partnership between the govern- spending on security. Economic growth ment, the city government, and local civil across Colombia averaged 5% during the ten society and community groups was the key years from 2002, enabling fresh investment to our effort to stabilise and secure Medellín. in infrastructure, and funding improvements Our approach was to turn the guerrillas’ in public safety. A positive cycle was estab- strategy – the ‘combination of all forms of lished. Security begat economic prosperity, struggle’ that treated armed action, agitation and prosperity, in turn, security. and propaganda, economic action and politi- During my tenure as Minister of Defence, cal negotiation simply as facets of a unified we partnered closely with then Mayor of struggle – against them through our concept Medellín, Anibal Gaviria (recently elected of ‘democratic security’. as Governor of Antioquia), to take meas- Under our government, and a series of ures to reduce violence in the city, and to talented and capable mayors of Medellín, stop a worrisome deterioration in security. the city went from widespread insecurity to We increased the police