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DEBATING 21ST CENTURY DEBATING 21ST CENTURY N NUCLEAR ISSUES U C LEAR I SSUES PRI C E AN D M A C KBY OWEN C.W. PRICE AND JENIFER MACKBY Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006 EDITORS Tel: (202)887-0200 Fax: (202) 775-3199 Web: www.csis.org CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES DEBATING 21ST CENTURY NUCLEAR ISSUES OWEN C.W. PRICE AND JENIFER MACKBY EDITORS CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES WASHINGTON, D.C. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) seeks to advance global security and prosperity in an era of economic and political transformation by providing strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decisionmakers. CSIS serves as a strategic planning partner for the government by conducting research and analysis and developing policy initiatives that look into the future and antici- pate change. Our more than 25 programs are organized around three themes: Defense and Security Policy—With one of the most comprehensive programs on U.S. defense policy and international security, CSIS proposes reforms to U.S. de- fense organization, defense policy, and the defense industrial and technology base. Other CSIS programs offer solutions to the challenges of proliferation, transna- tional terrorism, homeland security, and post-conflict reconstruction. Global Challenges—With programs on demographics and population, energy security, global health, technology, and the international financial and economic system, CSIS addresses the new drivers of risk and opportunity on the world stage. Regional Transformation—CSIS is the only institution of its kind with resident experts studying the transformation of all of the world’s major geographic regions. CSIS specialists seek to anticipate changes in key countries and regions—from Africa to Asia, from Europe to Latin America, and from the Middle East to North America. Founded in 1962 by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS is a bipar- tisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C., with more than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated experts. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999, and John J. Hamre has led CSIS as its president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the authors. © 2007 by Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C. All rights reserved ISBN 978-0-89206-499-1 Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006 Tel: (202) 887-0200 Fax: (202) 775-3199 Web: www.csis.org Information on the Project on Nuclear Issues may be found at www.csis.org/isp/ poni CONTENTS List of Abbreviations and Acronyms v Acknowledgments ix Foreword xi Ambassador Linton Brooks and Dr. Michael Wheeler Preface xiv Clark Murdock Introduction xix 1/ NEW AND EMERGING CHALLENGES TO U.S. SECURITY POLICY 1 1. Regional Nuclear Powers and U.S. Policy: A Study in Asymmetries 3 Michael Tkacik 2. Towards a Policy of Nuclear Dissuasion: How Can Dissuasion Improve U.S. National Security? 29 Jonathan Hagood 3. North Korea and Implications for U.S. National Security Policy 45 Dennis Shorts 4. Dealing with the Damage: How to Manage a Nuclear Iran 59 David D. Palkki and Lawrence Rubin 2/ THE STRATEGIES OF OTHER NUCLEAR-WEAPON STATES IN A CHANGING SECURITY ENVIRONMENT 75 5. Russia’s Nuclear Forces and Their Problems 77 Richard Weitz iii 6. Paper Tiger or Waking Dragon? Considering Nuclear Change in China 102 Dakota S. Rudesill 7. Nuclear Deterrence: The French Perspective 117 Bruno Tertrais 8. Renewing Trident: Britain’s Nuclear Politics 139 Nick Ritchie and Michael Sulmeyer 9. U.S.-Russian Missile Defense Cooperation and Nuclear Deterrence 157 Eric A. Miller 3/ ISSUES IN OPERATIONALIZING NUCLEAR STRATEGIES 177 10. Strategic Conventional Trident Modification: Sizing and Structuring the U.S. Stockpile for a “Minimum Counterforce” Capability 179 Owen C.W. Price 11. Nuclear Deterrence and the American Way of War: A New Look for the Post-9/11 Era? 203 Lt. Col. (select) George R. Nagy, USAF 12. Nuclear Command and Control in the Twenty-first Century: Trends, Disparities, and the Impact on Stability 226 Jerome M. Conley 13. Transformation of the Nuclear Weapons Complex: Overcoming the Legacy of a Sprawling Enterprise 251 Lani Miyoshi Sanders 14. The Nuclear Weapons Production Complex and the Reliable Replacement Warhead 266 Francis Slakey and Benn Tannenbaum 4/ Nonproliferation in a NUCLEAR AGE 277 15. Beyond the NPT: The Emerging Nonproliferation Environment 279 Whitney Raas 16. The India Deal and its Implications 298 Mary Beth Nikitin About the Editors and Authors 311 iv ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AAAS American Association for the Advancement of Science ABM Anti-Ballistic Missile [Treaty] ACDA Arms Control and Disarmament Agency AEC Atomic Energy Commission AF&F Arming, Fusing and Firing System AP Additional Protocol APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASMP Air-Sol Moyenne Portée—a French air- breathing missile BMD Ballistic Missile Defense BWC Biological Weapons Convention C2 Command and Control C³I Command, Control, Communications, and Intelligence CCP Chinese Communist Party CD Conference on Disarmament CMC Central Military Committee COAs Courses of Action CONOPS Concept of Operations CONUS Continental United States v CTBT Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty CTM Conventional Trident Modification —a conventional warhead for Trident ballistic missiles DMZ Demilitarized Zone DOD Department of Defense DOE Department of Energy DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) DTRA Defense Threat Reduction Agency EADS European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co. EMP Electromagnetic Pulse EU European Union FMCT Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GDP Gross Domestic Product HUMINT Human Intelligence IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile ICI Istanbul Cooperation Initiative INF Intermediate Range Nuclear Force IRCG Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp JDEC Joint Data Exchange Center JSTPS Joint Strategic Planning Staff KPA Korean People’s Army LANL Los Alamos National Laboratory LEP Life Extension Program LLNL Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory LMJ Laser Mégajoule LOW Launch on Warning MAD Mutually Assured Destruction MD Missile Defense MDA U.S. Missile Defense Agency MIRV Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle MOD Ministry of Defence NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NCA Nuclear Command Authority vi NDS National Defense Strategy NFU No First Use NNSA National Nuclear Security Administration NPR Nuclear Posture Review NPT Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty NSG Nuclear Supplier’s Group NSS National Security Strategy NWS Nuclear Weapon State OPLANs Operations Plans PAL Permissive Action Link PGS Prompt Global Strike PRPs Personnel Reliability Programs PSI Proliferation Security Initiative QDR Quadrennial Defense Review RNEP Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator ROK Republic of Korea (South Korea) RRW Reliable Replacement Warhead RVSN Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces (Raketniye voiska strategicheskogo naznacheniya) SAC Strategic Air Command SAIC Science Applications International Corporation SDR Strategic Defence Review SFIs Significant Findings SIOP Single Integrated Operational Plan SLBM Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile SMF Strategic Missile Forces SNM Special Nuclear Material SORT Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (Moscow Treaty) SRF Strategic Rocket Forces SSBN Strategic Ballistic Missile Submarine SSP Stockpile Stewardship Program TA-55 Technical Area 55 —a plutonium facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory TMD Theater Missile defense TMD AHWG Theater Missile Defense Ad-Hoc Working Group vii TNA Tête Nucléaire Aéroportée—a French air-launched nuclear warhead TNO Tête nucléaire océanique - a new-generation French nuclear warhead UN United Nations UNSC United Nations Security Council USN United States Navy USNORTHCOM United States Northern Command USSTRATCOM United States Strategic Command WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS In Memoriam Leon Sloss (1926–2006) The late Leon Sloss, friend and mentor to PONI since its inception, acted as a senior editor for this book until his death on November 1, 2006. His parting is keenly felt by those whose lives he touched. he editors and authors sincerely thank Dr. Michael Wheeler and Ambassador Linton Brooks for suggesting and encouraging Tthe production of this text within the auspices of the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI). Strong support was provided by Elaine Bunn, Frank Miller, Frank Moore, Tom Neary, George Quester, Brad Roberts, Paul Taylor, Victor Utgoff, and Christopher Williams, who helped shape the objectives of the book, mentored the authors, and reviewed their work. Roberta Howard, Divina Jocson, and Camille Sawak are thanked for shepherding the text through the publishing process, and Dr. Clark Murdock (director of PONI) is especially commended for giving the edi- tors and authors both the freedom and support necessary for success. ix FOREWORD Linton Brooks and Michael Wheeler n the half century between the end of the Second World War and the collapse of the Soviet empire, nuclear weapons dominated Ameri- Ican national security thinking. The prospect of a nuclear confronta- tion with the Soviet Union influenced American attitudes and
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