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A New Climate for Conservation Nature, Carbon and Climate Change in British Columbia

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A New Climate for Conservation Nature, Carbon and Climate Change in British Columbia A New Climate for Conservation Nature, Carbon and Climate Change in British Columbia Dr. Jim Pojar A NEW CLIMATE FOR CONSERVATION Commissioned by the Working Group on Biodiversity, Forests and Climate, an alliance of ENGOs, including: B.C. Spaces for Nature Th e Land Trust Alliance of B.C. Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society West Coast Environmental Law David Suzuki Foundation Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative ForestEthics CPAWS Graphic design and production by Roger Handling, Terra Firma Digital Arts. Cover photo credits: Paul Colangelo (main image); (top to bottom) Evgeny Kuzmenko, Sandra vom Stein, Robert Koopmans; (people) Aaron Kohr. January 2010 Th e Working Group on Biodiversity, Forests and Climate gratefully acknowledges fi nancial support from the Wilburforce Foundation, the Bullitt Foundation, the Real Estate Foundation of British Columbia, Patagonia Inc. and Tides Canada Exchange Fund of Tides Canada Foundation, in the preparation of this report. 2 | Nature, Carbon and Climate Change in British Columbia A NEW CLIMATE FOR CONSERVATION Acknowledgements Th is report was commissioned by the Working Group on Biodiversity, Forests and Climate, an alliance of Environmental Non-governmental Organizations (ENGOs) including: B.C. Spaces for Nature, Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society, David Suzuki Foundation, ForestEthics, Land Trust Alliance of B.C., West Coast Environmental Law, and Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative. Forest Ecologist Dr. Jim Pojar, who prepared the report, has extensive professional experience in applied conservation biology, forest ecology, sustainable forest management, ecological land classifi cation, and conservation, with a wealth of fi eld experience throughout British Columbia. Th e hope is that this synthesis of scientifi c information (on primarily terrestrial ecosystems) will be an important contribution to the current rethinking of nature conservation and climate action planning in British Columbia. Th e author and reviewers acknowledge several areas that were not within the scope of this project but would augment our current knowledge. For example, our comprehension of impacts to biodiversity would be greatly enhanced by a deeper understanding and application of Indigenous Ecological Knowledge in B.C. in collaboration with First Nations peoples. Other topics that were outside the scope of the report, but that would be important parts of a comprehensive analysis, include: a socio-economic analysis of the implications of a carbon economy and forest carbon initiatives; a greater understanding of market leakage from conserving forests and reducing harvest levels; implications of genetically modifi ed organisms; and the role of B.C.’s ecosystems, including oceans, in the larger global climate scenarios. A separate executive summary is available at http://www.davidsuzuki.org/Publications/a_new_climate_for_conservation.asp. Working Group on Biodiversity, Forests and Climate – An Alliance of Environmental Non-governmental Organizations: Candace Batycki, Director of Forest Programs, ForestEthics Ric Careless, Executive Director, B.C. Spaces for Nature Jessica Clogg, Executive Director and Senior Counsel, West Coast Environmental Law Marlene Cummings, BC Forest Campaigner, ForestEthics Wendy Francis, Director of Conservation: Science and Action, Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative Sheila Harrington, Executive Director, Land Trust Alliance of British Columbia Dr. Faisal Moola, Director of Terrestrial Conservation and Science Program, David Suzuki Foundation; Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto Chloe O’Loughlin, Executive Director, Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society – BC Chapter Project Coordinator: Marlene Cummings, ForestEthics Editorial Coordinator: Dr. Briony Penn, Briony Penn Associates Nature, Carbon and Climate Change in British Columbia | 3 A NEW CLIMATE FOR CONSERVATION Scientifi c Reviewers: Dr. Sally Aitken, Professor of Forest Genetics; and Director, Centre for Forest Conservation Genetics, UBC Dennis Demarchi, Consulting Wildlife Biologist Mike Fenger, RP Forester, Principal, Mike Fenger and Associates Ltd. Dr. Lara J. Hansen, Chief Scientist and Executive Director, EcoAdapt Mark E. Harmon, Richardson Chair and Professor, Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University Dr. Richard Hebda, Curator, Botany and Earth History, Royal B.C. Museum Dr. Rachel Holt, Principal, Veridian Ecological Consulting Limited Susan Pinkus, Staff Scientist, Ecojustice Canada Dr. Suzanne Simard, Professor of Forest Ecology, UBC Faculty of Forestry Additional Scientifi c Advice from: Pierre Iachetti, Director of Conservation Science & Planning, Nature Conservancy of Canada, BC Region Dr. Beverly Law, Professor of Global Change Forest Science, Oregon State University Dr. Paul Paquet, Senior Scientist, Raincoast Foundation, BC; and Professor of Environmental Design, University of Calgary Legal and Policy Reviewers: Keith Ferguson, Staff Lawyer, Ecojustice Canada Johnny Mikes, Planning Advisor, Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society Sean Nixon, Lawyer, Woodward & Company Devon Page, Executive Director, Ecojustice Canada Additional Research and Technical Advice: Gregory Kehm, Program Director, Ecotrust Canada Veronica Lo, Marine Conservation Planning Coordinator, Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society – BC Chapter Dave Neads, Director, Bioenergy Program, BC Spaces for Nature Bob Peart, past Executive Director, Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society – BC Chapter Dr. Briony Penn, Briony Penn Associates Editorial Assistance on Executive Summary from: Dr. Rachel Holt, Veridian Ecological Consulting Limited Copy Editing by: Joe Kadi, Editorial Consultant Graphic Design: Roger Handling, Creative Director, Terra Firma Digital Arts 4 | Nature, Carbon and Climate Change in British Columbia A NEW CLIMATE FOR CONSERVATION Table of Contents Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................................................................5 Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................................................7 PART 1: BIODIVERSITY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION ................................................................8 1.1 Importance of British Columbia’s Biodiversity ..............................................................................................................8 1.1.1 Summary of Biodiversity in B.C. ........................................................................................................................ 10 1.2 Climate Change Underway .............................................................................................................................................11 1.2.1 Historic and Recent Climate Change in British Columbia ............................................................................... 13 1.2.2 Projected Future Climate Change ....................................................................................................................... 13 1.2.3 Summary of Climate Change Underway ........................................................................................................... 15 1.3 Impacts of Climate Change on B.C.’s Biological Diversity .........................................................................................15 1.3.1 Review of Changes in Ecological Processes, Ecosystems and Species ................................................................ 15 1.3.2 Summary of Climate Change Impacts ............................................................................................................... 16 1.4 Projected Impacts of Climate Change on B.C.’s Biological Diversity .......................................................................16 1.5 Future Ecosystem Responses ..........................................................................................................................................16 1.5.1 Changes to Terrestrial Biogeoclimatic Zones ..................................................................................................... 18 1.5.2 Natural Disturbances .......................................................................................................................................... 21 1.5.3 Ecosystem Productivity ........................................................................................................................................ 23 1.5.4 Freshwater Aquatic Ecosystems .......................................................................................................................... 24 1.5.5 Summary of Future Ecosystem Responses .......................................................................................................... 25 1.6 Future Species Responses ................................................................................................................................................26 1.6.1 Species of Most Concern ...................................................................................................................................... 26 1.6.2 Specialised Species ................................................................................................................................................ 28 1.6.3 Keystone Species ..................................................................................................................................................
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