The Fire-Climate Connection
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FIRE SCIENCE DIGEST ISSUE 1 OCTOBER 2007 ISSUE 1 OCTOBER 2007 The Fire-Climate Connection JFSP-funded research is exploring and quantifying relationships among the large-scale drivers of climate and the occurrence and extent of wildfire in the various regions of the western United States. In recent decades, large fires in the West have become periodic fire. Climate, interacting with the ecosystem to more frequent, more widespread, and potentially more produce wildfire regimes, is largely responsible for the deadly. In 2003, a particularly severe fire season, wildfires considerable differences in the forest types that exist across burned about 4 million acres, destroyed 5,000 structures, the West at various latitudes and elevations. Factors such as and took the lives of 30 firefighters. precipitation, temperature, and topography (which, over the In addition, dealing with wildfires is becoming more long haul, is also driven by climate) combine to influence and more expensive. The 2003 fire season racked up more the vegetation that can grow in a given place, as well as the than $1 billion in suppression costs. The bill for suppressing timing, severity, and extent of burns. These in turn influence wildfires on public lands has exceeded the amount the type of forest that gets established. Forests thus owe appropriated almost every year since 1990, according to the their distinctive identities to historical patterns of climate General Accounting Office. and recurring fire. Pre-twentieth-century fire was highly variable across 1,800 Dollars in millions (adjusted for inflation) different landscapes. Large, stand-replacing fires were 1,600 typical of forests in cool, wet climates, such as coastal 1,400 Douglas-fir and interior, high-elevation lodgepole pine 1,200 1,000 and Engelmann spruce. In contrast, lower-lying forests in 800 warmer, drier climates tended to experience less intense 600 fires more often, about every 5 to 20 years. Such fires in the 400 200 ponderosa pine forests of the high desert of the southwestern 0 United States or the mixed conifer forests of the Sierra 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Fiscal year Nevada, for instance, would kill many young trees and most Suppression costs Suppression appropriations shrubs, but would spare the older, fire-resistant trees and Source: GAO analysis of Forest Service and interior data. renew a grassy or herbaceous understory. Recent decades have brought a shift to more-severe Wildfire suppression costs have exceeded appropriations almost fires in some locations, disrupting historical patterns and every year since 1990. (Reprinted from GAO-04-612.) putting unaccustomed stress on forest ecosystems, especially those adapted to low-level periodic fire. The fires’ effects Wildfire has always been a periodic visitor to western are often exacerbated by drought and insect attack, both of forests, part of the cycle of natural dynamics that make which are expected to increase with rising temperatures. these forests what they are. Until recently, the standard These assaults add up to a complex of stressors that can alter explanation for increased wildfires in recent decades has the composition and structure of forest ecosystems. been an unnatural buildup of fuel stemming from a century of fire suppression. Ecologists now say the story is far more Quick turnaround complicated than that—that climate, in fact, can have a stronger fingerprint in many areas. The rise of global temperatures that began in the past century was a rapid reversal of a much longer cooling A complex of stressors trend. The effects of warming are not smooth or steady, but discontinuous in space and time. In general, the places Climate is, of course, the most important natural and times that were coolest to start with have warmed the shaper of forest ecosystems. It affects the location and most: nighttime low temperatures, winter temperatures, and composition of forests and the frequency and extent of temperatures at high latitudes and high altitudes. Not only FIRE SCIENCE DIGEST ISSUE 1 OCTOBER 2007 rising mean temperatures are of concern, however, but also Applications (FERA) team of the USDA Forest Service an increase in the variability of the climate that might lead Pacific Northwest (PNW) Research Station. “Unfortunately, to more extreme weather events. we don’t always know what those thresholds are until we Fire scientists and land managers are particularly see them appear in specific ecosystems, usually in unique worried about the confluence of warming temperatures, ways.” high fuel loads, and impending drought in particular areas. What is more, scientists worry that increasing fires “Many of us who work in climate and ecology think we’re will erode the capacity of forests to absorb carbon from facing another megadrought, a natural trigger to stand- the atmosphere. Currently, forests in the western United replacing fires—but this time with unnaturally large fuel States are net carbon sinks, soaking up 20 to 40 percent of loads in some forests poised for severe burns,” says Tom all carbon sequestered in the country. That means they help Swetnam, a forest ecologist and fire scientist who directs soften the greenhouse effect by taking up carbon emitted the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research at the University into the atmosphere from natural and human sources. If of Arizona. Some scientists predict that the area burned current wildfire trends continue, however, the forested in wildfires will double or even triple over the next 50 landscape may become a source of carbon rather than a sink. years. At risk are human communities, soil productivity, forest biodiversity, drinking water sources, and habitat for Urgent questions sensitive species. In extreme cases, a one-two punch of high-severity Recent research by climatologists, biologists, fires and a warming climate could alter environmental geographers, and fire ecologists has revealed that fires in conditions so much that native seedlings would have a hard western forests are more strongly linked to climate than time getting established after a stand-replacing fire. As far was previously thought. But the specific linkages are as as can be determined from ancient records, past climate yet poorly understood. More practically, from a land- changes, although slower than this one, have produced large management perspective, it is not easy to sort through the ecological reorganizations along with dramatic changes in scientific findings and pick out the most useful ones for fire regimes. “Systems can change quickly when ecological planning and on-the-ground management. thresholds are exceeded,” says Don McKenzie, research The questions have become urgent with successive ecologist with the Fire and Environmental Research record-setting fire seasons in 2005 and 2006. A key study published in Science in August of 2006 used real-time A Western US Forest Wildfires and Spring–Summer Temperature Calculating Carbon Carbon dioxide is a natural product of the combustion of Temperature 15 (°C) living or once-living material. A wildfire throws enormous T quantities of carbon dioxide into the air. Estimating exactly 14 wildfire frequency 0 100 how much is a complicated business, because forests Wildfires 13 vary widely in the amount of biomass—living or once-living 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 matter—they contain. Carbon moves constantly between B Timing of Spring Snowmelt its solid and gaseous states. Trees take in carbon during the summer growing season and release it during winter 15 Late 15 dormancy. (In mild-winter areas, some trees and other 5 5 (anomaly) (anomaly) vegetation photosynthesize and fix carbon all year long.) -5 -5 days days The amount of carbon dioxide released in a wildfire -15 Early -15 depends on the total biomass of the forest burned and 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 how thoroughly it is burned. Biomass in a temperate C Fire Season Length coniferous forest may measure 1,000 kg to the hectare, 3 according to John Christie, a chemist at LaTrobe 300 300 2 University in Victoria, Australia. Carbon dioxide contains year year of of about 27 percent carbon. Therefore, if a fire were to 1 consume the total biomass of such a forest, each burned day 100 100 day 1: First Discovery 2: Last Discovery 3: Last Control hectare would theoretically release 27 percent of its 0 0 biomass, or 270 kg, as carbon into the atmosphere. 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 (A) The red bars indicate annual frequency of large (>400 ha) In reality, no wildfire is so efficient, says Christie, so such wildfires in western U.S. forests; the black line indicates mean estimates need to be moderated considerably. In addition, March through August temperature. (B) The black line traces the biomass contains other elements that are emitted as gas timing of streamflow in snowmelt-dominated streams from 1970. (C) and particulate matter. Nevertheless, more and bigger Length of the annual fire season from 1970, shown as the length wildfires threaten to turn forests into an increasing source of time between the first and last large-fire ignition and last large- of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a major contributor to fire control. (From Westerling, A.L., H.G. Hidalgo, D.R. Cayan, and T.W. Swetnam. 2006. Warming and earlier spring increase western global warming. U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science 313 (5789): 940–943, 18 August 2006; Reprinted with permission from AAAS.) 2 FIRE SCIENCE DIGEST ISSUE 1 OCTOBER 2007 climate records to make a strong link between rising temperatures and increasing wildfire in the northern Rocky Springtime in the Rockies Mountains. The researchers, led by A.L. (Tony) Westerling of the University of California at Merced, found that A key piece of research on the fire-climate connection warming temperatures and earlier springs are triggering strongly suggests that a changing climate is driving increased wildfire activity in forests in the northern Rockies.