Expectations and Reality Expectations and Reality 1 Introduction and Executive Summary
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GOOD AND BAD NEWS ABOUT HOW WELL U.S. STUDENTS ARE PREPARED FOR SUCCESS IN OUR CHANGING WORLD II EXPECTATIONS AND REALITY EXPECTATIONS AND REALITY 1 INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Most U.S. parents are anxious that their children’s future could This report was authored by America Achieves be compromised if their education does not become more and represents the views of America Achieves. challenging. According to a new survey commissioned by America Achieves, 72 percent of parents worry that a middle class lifestyle INSIDE THIS REPORT will be harder to achieve for their children—and 71 percent worry America Achieves is a nonprofit organization SECTION 1 dedicated to inspiring and equipping Americans that their children could miss out on future opportunities—if PARENT EXPECTATIONS — AND CONCERNS—ABOUT their children’s education doesn’t become more challenging. to raise the bar in education and drive THEIR CHILDREN’S investment in what works so that each young Consistent with most prior surveys, most parents still express EDUCATION ...................6 person can succeed in a changing world. confidence in their own children’s schools, but 61 percent believe SECTION 2 their children’s standard of living may slip below theirs without a THE GAP BETWEEN EXPECTATIONS AND America Achieves gratefully acknowledges more demanding education. STUDENT ATTAINMENT ....8 SECTION 3 funding from Bloomberg Philanthropies, New findings by America Achieves suggest these anxieties may be well- INTERNATIONAL Charles Butt, and The Kern Family Foundation founded—given that real educational improvements for U.S. students may COMPARISONS to produce this report. not be keeping pace with parent hopes or with the rising educational bar in a OVER TIME ................... 11 changing economy. Results from a new parent survey reveal a significant gap SECTION 4 between parent expectations for their children’s educational futures and actual USING A GLOBAL educational attainment. Of every two families expecting their child to become a BENCHMARKING TOOL TO SPOTLIGHT LOCAL college graduate with a bachelor’s degree, more than one is likely to be wrong. SUCCESSES IN THE U.S. AND Moreover, new analyses of math and science achievement on the international GLOBALLY—AND SUPPORT IMPROVEMENTS .............16 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) exam demonstrate that U.S. students in the bottom socioeconomic quarter have made significant SECTION 5 CONCLUDING gains in both absolute and relative performance in recent years—but that this OBSERVATIONS ............. 20 improved performance is not yet enough to eliminate large skill gaps and broader opportunity gaps. APPENDIX ................... 24 FIGURE 1A,B ................... 24 These findings also show the need for educational progress for both FIGURE 2A,B,C,D,E,F ........... 25 disadvantaged and middle-income students. While the U.S. was one of only nine FIGURE 3A,B,C,D ............... 28 countries to decrease the impact of a student’s socioeconomic status on math FIGURE 4A,B,C,D............... 32 FIGURE 5A,B,C,D ............... 36 performance between 2003 and 2012, disadvantaged students remain several BENENSON STRATEGY grades behind their more advantaged U.S. peers. At the same time, U.S. middle GROUP SURVEY ............... 41 2 EXPECTATIONS AND REALITY EXPECTATIONS AND REALITY 3 and upper income students are outperformed by their socioeconomic peers in of students in the U.S. was outperformed in 2012 by international peers in 14 more industrialized countries than are U.S. students in the bottom socioeconomic countries in science and in 20 countries in math. When looking at the second- quarter. Our disadvantaged students face the most urgent need for continued to-top quarter of socioeconomic advantage—the quarter most analogous progress—but they are not the primary cause of our nation’s middling global to America’s definition of the middle class—15 countries outperformed the position in education. While vast majorities of low-income parents and Black and U.S. in science, and 20 countries outperformed the U.S. in math. The bottom Hispanic parents are likely to be wrong about their children’s educational future, socioeconomic quarter of U.S. students was outperformed by peers in 11 the majority of both middle-income and White families are likely to be wrong as countries in science and 17 countries in math. well. PROMISING RECENT DEVELOPMENTS FOR STUDENTS IN THE LOWEST In fact, these findings suggest that, just as we must accelerate improvements SOCIOECONOMIC QUARTER in basic and higher-order skills and expand opportunities inside and outside of EXPECTATION On the promising side, U.S. students in the bottom socioeconomic quarter school for our low-income students, we also need to broaden our progress so 74 percent of parents of have made significant gains in both absolute and relative performance in math that U.S. students across all income levels gain the deeper learning and problem- children in elementary or and science in recent years.2 Students in ten fewer countries outperformed solving skills that are at the core of PISA’s focus and crucial to their futures. We secondary school expect that U.S. students in the bottom socioeconomic quarter in science and those in also need to learn from and build on the eforts of educators, school leaders, their child will obtain a four- five fewer countries outperformed U.S. students in math compared to the first and district leaders nationwide who are looking for opportunities to benchmark year college degree. their schools against high standards and their peers across the state, country comparable year of PISA data (2006 for science and 2003 for math). These and world, and then make shifts, based on their findings, that improve student results align with a 2013 analysis by the OECD showing that the U.S. improved its outcomes. math performance and decreased the impact of socioeconomic status on math performance between 2003 and 2012—one of only nine countries to do so.3 GAP BETWEEN EXPECTATION AND STUDENT ATTAINMENT Our lowest income students, on average, still dramatically lag behind their more A 2014 survey commissioned by America Achieves of parents across all REALITY afuent peers in the U.S., and they and their schools urgently need continued income levels found a striking gap between parent expectations and student support. And achievement gains by themselves won’t fully address important Only 35 percent of young people postsecondary attainment. Overall, out of every two families who expect that opportunity gaps. Particularly if corroborated by future studies, however, these (aged 25-34) have obtained a their child will complete a four-year college degree, more than one is likely to be promising findings suggest that our nation’s focus in recent years on improving bachelor’s degree – meaning wrong.1 This holds particularly true for low-income and middle-income families educational outcomes for low-income students is leading to real progress. that the expectations of more earning less than $100,000: over half of these parents do not have their college than half of all parents are expectations met. Only the attainment of students from families who earn more likely to be wrong. than $100,000 even approaches parent expectations. However, all U.S. students, including our most advantaged, experience a skills gap. Math and science performance on the PISA over time shows that U.S. students at all socioeconomic levels continue to lag behind many of their international peers. On the most recent administration of the PISA, when looking at the 30 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 2 U.S. second-to-top quarter students have made modest, although uneven, improvements in science, but these improvements are less significant than those seen by the bottom quarter. (OECD) countries that participated in the first comparable year in math (2003) 3 OECD. (2013). PISA 2012 Results: Excellence Through Equity: Giving Every Student the Chance to and the first comparable year in science (2006), the top socioeconomic quarter Succeed (Volume II). PISA, OECD Publishing. DOI:10.1787/9789264201132-en. These gains are consistent with reports showing educational progress for disadvantaged students in the U.S., including improved high school graduation rates, reduced drop-out rates, and improved 1 74 percent of surveyed parents responded that they are “absolutely certain” or believe it “very elementary and middle school achievement. A 2014 study by the Child Trends Hispanic Institute, likely” that their child will complete a four-year college degree. According to the OECD, 35 percent for example, found that math achievement among Hispanic fourth- and eighth-grade students of Americans aged 25-34 have obtained a bachelor’s degree. OECD. (2015). Education at a Glance overall has increased one grade level to two or more over the past decade. Pane, N. (2014). Math Interim Report: Update of Employment and Educational Attainment Indicators. http://www.oecd.org/ scores add up for Hispanic students: States and school districts notable for recent gains by Hispanic edu/EAG-Interim-report.pdf students in mathematics. Child Trends Hispanic Institute 4 EXPECTATIONS AND REALITY EXPECTATIONS AND REALITY 5 who led the world in education by many measures. This is because, over the last COMPARING STUDENTS BY SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS two decades, other countries have gotten better faster as the educational bar has been raised in a changing economy. In fact, according to research conducted In order to conduct an analysis of the relative performance of U.S. students over time, we looked at the by the OECD, although the overall percentage of young adults aged 25-34 who performance of the 30 OECD nations that participated in both the earliest available and comparable earned a bachelor’s degree has risen from 27 percent5 to 35 percent6 since 1998, PISA (2003 in math and 2006 in science) and the most recent PISA (2012).