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Last Ned Big Cannabis. Notat 2:2016 Big cannabis Framveksten av en ny industri ACTIS-RAPPORT 2:2016 Innhold ACTIS ACTIS RAPPORT Innledning �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 3 RAPPORT SIDE 2 Innledning SIDE 3 En kort historikk ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 5 Hva er Big cannabis? ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 8 Industri og folkehelse ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������8 «Big cannabis is coming.» Industrien som politisk aktør ......................................................................................................................9 Fastcompany.com 2014 Alkohol- og tobakksindustriens rolle ..................................................................................................12 Ungdom og tunge brukere ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������14 Denne rapporten handler om et fenomen som fortsatt er i støpeskjeen. Individorientering ...............................................................................................................................................16 Man kan kanskje med rette hevde at fenomenet ikke finnes ennå – i hvert fall ikke i fullt monn all den tid det ikke finnes store, multinasjonale Produktutvikling ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������17 selskaper i cannabismarkedet. Det finnes ikke engang store nasjonale Spiselige produkter ..........................................................................................................................................18 selskaper. Kvinner som potensielle kunder ............................................................................................................21 Men konturene av «big cannabis» kan skimtes. I denne rapporten ser Forbudets jernlov �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������21 vi på en rekke utviklingstrekk som allerede er synlige og drøfter disse tendensene opp mot erfaringer med Big tobacco og Big alcohol. Pris og avgifter ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 22 Med kommersialiseringen av såkalt medisinsk cannabis og Legalisering gir lavere pris ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������23 senere av rekreasjonsbruk har det vokst fram en spirende industri. Kan man kompensere med avgifter? ...............................................................................................23 Spenningsforholdet mellom lovgivningen på delstatsnivå og på føderalt Industriens interesser .....................................................................................................................................25 nivå har foreløpig lagt en viss demper på industrien. Begrenset tilgang på banktjenester skaper problemer, og usikkerhet knyttet til lovverket Markedsføring �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������26 reduserer investeringsviljen. Mange av aktørene i bransjen er dessuten forholdsvis små, med røtter i en ideologisk cannabisbevegelse. Fordeling av forbruket����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������28 Bare i løpet av de siste årene har vi sett interessante, men kanskje ikke overraskende endringer. Det er opprettet egne reklamebyråer Veien videre ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������31 som spesialiserer seg på cannabisprodukter, agenter sørger for å Kontrollerende myndighet ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������32 plassere produktene i populære TV-programmer, det er opprettet Markedsføring i de nye lovforslagene ............................................................................................... 33 bransjeorganisasjoner, lobbyvirksomheter og investeringsfond. Det er Pengeinteresser i fri dressur ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������34 etablert merkevarer med profilerte talspersoner, og økonomiutdannede Issue 3: Grunnlovsforslag om legalisering i Ohio ......................................................................35 cannabisentreprenører - «ganjaprenører» - har fattet interesse for fortjenestemulighetene i et voksende marked. Cannabisvalget ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������36 Det er vanskelig å anslå verdien av cannabismarkedet. Et optimistisk anslag fra et investeringsfond som unektelig har en viss interesse i et høyt Oppsummering ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 37 anslag, er 40 milliarder dollar innen 2020 (washingtonpost.com 2014). Samtidig har terskelen for å få en fot innenfor industrien blitt høyere. Kilder ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������40 Lovlig regulert virksomhet krever økonomiske ressurser, søknadsprosesser, godkjenninger, sikringstiltak, forsikringer, HMS-arbeid og egenkapital. Dette favoriserer aktører som har tilgang på kapital. «The future of pot look[s] much less like an archipelago of mission-dri- ven small enterprises than an emerging mega industry to be domina- ted by large companies.» Fastcompany.com 2014 Mange av dem som ønsker å legalisere cannabis, snakker om et strengt regulert marked som beskytter folkehelsen. Men det kommersialiser- En kort historikk te cannabismarkedet som nå vokser fram i USA, er langt unna en slik regulert modell. 1. januar 2014 åpnet de første lovlige utsalgene for såkalt rekreasjonell ACTIS ACTIS RAPPORT cannabis i Colorado, USA. Selv om mange små skritt hadde ledet fram dit, RAPPORT SIDE 4 «Drug policy is all about reducing demand, and a company that has var dette på mange måter en milepæl. For første gang i moderne tid kunne SIDE 5 a profit motive is only going to increase demand […]Having a big man gå i lovlige cannabisutsalg og kjøpe lovlig produsert cannabis som commercial marijuana industry runs counter to public health goals. » man inntok lovlig for fornøyelsens skyld. Dan Riffle, tidligere cannabislobbyist for At delstatslovene i Colorado er i strid med føderale lover som forbyr Marijuana Policy Project (Slate.com 2016) cannabis, syntes ikke å legge noen demper på entusiasmen verken hos dem som ønsket å bruke penger på cannabis, eller dem som ønsket å tjene Erfaringene fra andre folkehelsefelt viser at framveksten av et penger på det. kommersielt marked har sin egen dynamikk. Konkurransen driver fram Det legale cannabismarkedet i Colorado, og senere Washington, produktutvikling, markedsføring og effektivisering som gjør produktene representerte et nytt trinn i utviklingen, men kimen til de fleste endringene billigere, bedre og mer attraktive for stadig nye forbrukere. Samtidig var allerede på plass. Amerikanerne kunne se til Nederland, der et semilegalt har industrien interesse i å påvirke rammevilkår og regulering slik at cannabismarked hadde eksistert i flere tiår. I dette grå markedet utviklet produktene er sosialt akseptert og lett tilgjengelig for kundene. man bedre dyrkingsmetoder og fikk fram nye og sterkere cannabissorter, Ifølge Verdens helseorganisasjon (WHO) er de lovlige stoffene alkohol og såkalt Nederwiet, med en konsentrasjon av det rusgivende virkestoffet THC tobakk to av de viktigste risikofaktorene for sykdom og død i verden i dag. på 25-30 prosent (Niesink, Pijlman, Rigter, Hoek og Mostert 2003; Rigter og Til tross for god kunnskap om skadevirkningene og omfattende regulering Niesink 2010). Man så også framveksten av spiselige former for cannabis. i mange deler av verden, er de sosiale og helsemessige konsekvensene En kommersiell cannabisindustri var fortsatt enorme. Og mange av virkemidlene som brukes for å begrense heller ikke noe helt nytt fenomen da de skadevirkningene, er under press i et globalisert marked. Det lovlige første rekreasjonsutsalgene åpnet. Enkelte cannabismarkedet i Colorado i 2015 ble anslått til 1 milliard dollar (fortune. amerikanske delstater, slik som Colorado og com 2016), og med mulig legalisering i flere delstater er markedet forventet California, hadde allerede relativt liberale å vokse til 40 milliarder dollar i løpet av et par år (forbes.com 2016). bestemmelser for medisinsk cannabis. Utsiktene til fortjeneste har skapt forhåpninger om et «grønt gullrush». Mens noen delstater har relativt restriktive De siste årene har økonomer fra prestisjeuniversiteter, entreprenører og bestemmelser for medisinsk bruk av cannabis investorer flokket til markedet med kompetanse, kapital og ambisjoner og en spesifikk liste over sykdommer som om å skape «the Starbucks of Pot» (usatoday.com 2013) eller «the kvalifiserer for slik behandling, åpner lovverket Philip Morris of Marijuana» (wsj.com 2014). Denne utviklingen har skapt i Colorado og California for at cannabis kan bekymring for at man er i ferd med å etablere en ny kommersiell brukes mot alle slags lidelser og plager så lenge EDIBLES: Reklame for
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