WORKING PAPER 2017-26

The potential for low-carbon renewable methane in heating, power, and in the

Authors: Chelsea Baldino, Nikita Pavlenko, and Stephanie Searle (ICCT), and Adam Christensen (Three Seas) Date: October 2018 Keywords: , renewable , , availability, decarbonization,

Introduction in transport. Some stakeholders high reductions of greenhouse gas have also advocated the inclusion (GHG) emissions. This study presents the potential and of renewable methane and other cost of production for renewable low-carbon fuels in the In this study we expand our previous methane in the European Union (EU) assessment to estimate the technical carbon dioxide (CO2) standards in 2050, following a previous paper (ART Fuels Forum, 2018; ACEA, n.d.; and cost-effective potential for using assessing the potential for renewable NGVA Europe, 2017). As member renewable methane from sustainable methane for the transport sector states consider how to achieve their feedstocks in the power, heating, and in France, Italy, and Spain (Baldino, climate goals, they must assess the transport sectors. We assess barriers Pavlenko, Searle, & Christensen, in realistic potential as well as the costs to producing renewable methane for press). Policymakers throughout the for renewable methane. In 2018, the each sector and identify the maximum EU are evaluating their alternative power sector is the leading user amount of fossil gas that could realis- energy options to help deliver on of renewable methane in the EU tically be displaced in the 2030–2050 their air quality and at 62%, with Germany, the United timeframe. We also estimate the mitigation goals within the transport Kingdom, and Italy responsible for potential for GHG reductions from and stationary heating and power more than 77% of renewable methane renewable methane in each sector. sectors. One of these options is production in the 28 EU member These results help to identify the role renewable methane. states (Kampman et al., 2016). that renewable methane can have in medium- and long-term decarboniza- The recast Proponents of renewable methane tion of the European Union and the Directive for 2021-2030 (RED II; have touted its climate and air-quality level of policy incentives that will be European Union, 2018) includes benefits when displacing diesel in the necessary to achieve this benefit. ambitious targets for renewable heavy-duty vehicle fleet. Importantly, energy in all three sectors, with the feedstocks and technologies each EU member state required used to produce renewable methane Methodology to implement the directive using play a large role in determining the For this study, we analyze the specific measures that promote the actual climate benefits. Silage maize total technical potential for use of low-carbon energy (General provides about half of the renewable renewable methane from a variety Secretariat of the Council of the methane in the European Union, of feedstocks, including livestock European Union, 2018). Renewable but it competes with food and feed manure, sludge, waste and methane from qualifying feedstocks crops for agricultural land and causes residue biomass, and renewable is one option for meeting the RED substantial indirect land-use-change electricity in 2030 and 2050. We II targets for the overall renewable emissions (Valin et al., 2015). On conduct a cost analysis for each energy target including power, the other hand, wastes, residues, feedstock and technology pathway heating, and transport and for the and renewable power can be used to estimate cost-supply curves for sub-target for advanced to produce renewable methane with the use of renewable methane in

Acknowledgments: This work was generously funded by the European Climate Foundation. Thanks to Jacopo Giuntoli and Peter Mock for helpful reviews.

© INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION, 2017 WWW.THEICCT.ORG THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-CARBON RENEWABLE METHANE IN HEATING, POWER, AND TRANSPORT IN THE EU

power, heating, or transport. Lastly, Table 1: Low-carbon renewable methane feedstocks, technology pathways, and we estimate the maximum total lifecycle GHG intensities for gaseous fuels used in the transport sector. potential GHG savings for renewable Technology methane as well as the GHG savings Feedstock pathway GHG intensity Reference that could be achieved at realistic CARB, average -264 gCO e/MJ levels of policy support. We conduct Livestock manure 2 LCA value for dairy (-9.45 kgCO e/ m3) our analysis at the national level and Anaerobic 2 cows digestion present aggregated EU-level results. 19 gCO2e/MJ Sewage sludge 3 CARB, average We present renewable methane (0.68 kgCO2e/ m ) Municipal and potential in the European Union on -26 gCO e/MJ industrial solid 2 Wang, 2017 a pre-combustion basis, or before (-0.93 kgCO e/ m3) waste 2 the renewable methane is used for and -6 gCO e/MJ energy by the end user. We present Crop residues methanation 2 Wang, 2017 (-0.21 kgCO e/ m3) our findings for two alternatives: 2 -12 gCO e/MJ delivering renewable gas to the gas Logging residues 2 Wang, 2017 (-0.42 kgCO e/ m3) grid for use in either the stationary 2 Renewable solar heating or transport sector, or onsite 26 gCO e/MJ Christensen & power-to-gas in 2 (0.93 kgCO e/ m3) Petrenko, 2017 combustion of renewable methane to 2030 Electrolysis and 2 methanation generate electricity to be sold to the Renewable solar (power-to-gas) 12 gCO e/MJ Christensen & power grid. power-to-gas in 2 (0.42 kgCO e/ m3) Petrenko, 2017 2050 2 EU-28 Power European FEEDSTOCK SUSTAINABILITY 68.6 gCO e/MJ production, grid 2 Commission, 2016a; AND PATHWAY SELECTION (2.46 kgCO e/ m3*) average in 2030 2 Moomaw, 2011. In this study, we assess the potential EU-28 Power European 46.9 gCO e/MJ for renewable methane production production, grid 2 Commission, 2016a; (1.68 kgCO e/ m3*) only from sustainable, low-carbon average in 2050 2 Moomaw, 2011. feedstocks. We use the same Giuntoli, Agostini, -derived 72 gCO e/MJ 2 Edwards, Marelli, assumptions regarding feedstock fossil gas (2.58 kgCO e/ m3) 2 2015 sustainability and pathway selection for renewable methane production as Note: CARB=California Air Resources Board. For livestock manure, the CARB GHG intensity in Baldino et al. (in press). The three values included high carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) reduction credits from avoided methane conversion pathways for renewable emissions. The gasification pathways include credits for exported electricity. * GHG intensities for electricity are for delivered electricity, not input feedstocks. methane production that we assess include anaerobic digestion, thermo- chemical gasification, and power-to- The feedstocks, technology the power sector, we calculate the gas, in which electricity is used to pathways, and lifecycle GHG intensi- GHG mitigation potential similarly, create methane. This study focuses ties used in the analysis are listed comparing renewable methane GHG on renewable methane produced in Table 1. We use these GHG inten- intensity to that of EU grid power. from wastes and residues that do sities to calculate the greenhouse We take the projected EU-level not have existing uses, including gas mitigation potential of using grid composition in 2030 and 2050 livestock manure, sewage sludge, these renewable methane pathways from the EU Reference Scenario and , crop residues, relative to either fossil gas or elec- break this down to the national level and forestry residues. For the power- tricity. We assume that renewable based on 2015 grid composition in to-gas pathway, only is methane replaces fossil gas in the each member state from Eurostat considered. Power-to-gas has been gas grid, which is then used in the (E3M-Lab, IIASA, & EuroCARE, discussed as a potential energy transport or heating sectors, while 2016). We combine this with mean storage and electrical grid balancing we consider average electrical grid life-cycle power-generation emission solution (Science Advice for Policy power in the power sector. For factors for each power source from by European Academies, 2018). heating or transport, we multiply Moomaw et al. (2011) to estimate Baldino et al. (in press) provides a the renewable methane volume by grid power GHG intensities for each more detailed explanation of how we the difference between the carbon member state. Table 1 provides the determined the choice of feedstocks intensities of fossil gas and the average grid carbon intensities in and the sustainable availability of specific feedstock and conversion the power sector in the EU in 2030 these feedstocks in our assessment. pathway assessed (see Table 1). For and 2050, while the individual GHG

2 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION WORKING PAPER 2017-26 THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-CARBON RENEWABLE METHANE IN HEATING, POWER, AND TRANSPORT IN THE EU

intensities that we use for each assume a straw yield reduction of sewage sludge in our assessment member state are available in the 40% to account for growing oats at because methane potential is Appendix in Table A1. a non-optimal time of the year and less certain than that of domestic of a further 20% because of physical wastewater treatment sludge, since In our primary analysis, we do not limitations in harvesting as the industrial wastewater varies greatly include cover crops as a potential harvester cannot cut below ~12 inches in its organic matter composition. source for renewable methane from the ground. We assume a 15% Generally, it is likely that most of production because there is little data moisture content for oat yields based the methane potential from sewage on the use of cover and catch crops, on FAOSTAT data to first calculate sludge is already being used for also known as sequential crops, inter- the dry mass yield of total straw renewable methane production. mediate crops, green manure, winter production and then a 70% moisture crops, and intercrops, in Europe. We content in oat straw to calculate the address this topic in more detail in Table 2: Total current use of renewable fresh matter yield of the cut straw. To methane in the EU, in billion m3 the discussion. Although we exclude estimate the methane yield potential cover crops from our primary analysis, from these harvested cover crops, Current Use 3 for illustration purposes we include a we use the average of low and high Feedstock (billon m ) rough estimate of the potential that methane production rates for the Energy Crops 8.5 anaerobic digestion of cover crops anaerobic digestion of alfalfa (Scarlat, Organic Waste 2.3 could contribute in Europe in 2050, Dallemand, and Fahl, 2018). Livestock Manure 1.2 based on current trends. We extrapo- Sewage Sludge 1.6 late trends in cover cropping land area CURRENT USE OF RENEWABLE Gas 3.1 from Alliance Environnement (2017) METHANE IN THE EU and find that in 2050, cover cropping could involve 9%–10% of the agricul- Some renewable methane is TECHNICAL POTENTIAL tural land in Europe. Given that we currently produced from sewage The methodology for assessing the do not know how many cover crops sludge, livestock manure, and other technical and cost potential for the are used for fodder, we assume feedstocks such as silage maize that production of renewable methane in that half of these cover crops could are not included in our analysis. No the EU closely follows Baldino et al. be used for renewable methane significant amounts of renewable (in press). Rather than estimating the production. We thus assume that methane from gasification or power- additional potential for renewable 5% of agricultural land in the EU to-gas are currently produced as methane relative to existing could be used to grow cover crops there are no commercial-scale production, as in the previous study, for renewable methane production. facilities using this technology. Table here we assess the total technical To estimate the total land area 2 presents the total current use potential for renewable methane where these crops could be grown, of renewable methane in the EU, in 2050. For livestock manure and we use 2016 total harvested area of derived from Kampman et al. (2016) sewage sludge, we first estimate the all cereals, oilseeds, and pulses such and EurObserv’ER (2017). Most of total current production of manure as legumes in the European Union this renewable methane is used in and sludge in EU member states from the ’ FAOSTAT the heating and power sectors. We and then estimate methane yields data source. calculate that the total potential for sewage sludge is only around 400 through anaerobic digestion. For use To estimate the yield of cover crops million m3, less than what we found in transport or heating, we factor that could be available in 2050, we as the current use. There are two in losses during gas conditioning use oats as an example as they are likely reasons for this discrepancy: 1) and compression. We assume that listed as a common cover crop in We most likely underestimate biogas the technical potential for these Alliance Environnement (2017). We production from sewage sludge in pathways remains constant through assume that oat straw is harvested this study because we do not include 2050. For gasification, we use a before seeding, as reported in the potential for capturing methane deployment model to estimate the Alliance Environnement (2017). We from the anaerobic digestion ponds maximum production capacity of take average EU oat yields from 2016 themselves, although there is some renewable methane from wastes from FAOSTAT—weighted average evidence that very little wastewater and residues in 2030 and 2050. In by harvested area by country—and is anaerobically treated (UNFCCC, most countries, renewable methane assume the same average oat-to- 2017; UNFCCC, 2018). 2) Kampman potential from this pathway becomes straw ratio as for wheat that we et al. (2016) include industrial sewage constrained by feedstock availability calculated from data in Scarlat, sludge in their estimate of current by 2050. We also use a deployment Martinov, and Dallemand (2010). We use. We do not consider industrial model for power-to-gas and assume

WORKING PAPER 2017-26 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION 3 THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-CARBON RENEWABLE METHANE IN HEATING, POWER, AND TRANSPORT IN THE EU

the technical potential to be the Table 3: Emission factors for livestock . potential at the highest incentive Methane VS level included in our cost analysis for Conversion (Volatile Solids) Methane this pathway (more detail below). Our Factor Generation Generation estimates of the technical potential of kg renewable methane for each sector n/a VS/Animal/day m^3/kg VS assumes that all renewable methane Western European Dairy Cows 0.56 5.10 0.24 feedstocks are used for one sector Eastern European Dairy Cows 0.56 4.50 0.24 and not the other; for example, our Eastern Non-Dairy Adult Cattle 0.56 2.70 0.17 technical potential estimate for Western Non-Dairy Adult Cattle 0.56 2.60 0.17 transport assumes 100% of renewable Pigs 0.8 0.50 0.45 methane is used in transport and none in heating or power. the cost-viable volume of renewable member state provided in European For calculating the technical potential methane at several possible levels of Commission (2016b). of renewable methane from livestock policy support in 2030 and 2050. manure, as in Baldino et al. (in press), There are several costs we do we use IPCC emission factors for We adapt the methodology used in not take into consideration in this manure management to calculate Baldino et al. (in press) in calculat- study, thus likely overestimating the the biomethane potential from ing MSPs. For each technology and potential at any particular incentive cattle and pigs. We exclude poultry feedstock combination, we use a level. We do not include the cost of manure because of the difficulty of discounted cash flow model that pre-treatment; one study found that methane formation in the anaerobic assesses the net present value (NPV) pre-treatment of wastewater sludge digestion of this feedstock. In of future returns relative to total can cost between €81 and €171 per Table 3 we present assumptions project costs. In our analyses, retail tonne of total solids (Muller, 2001). for volatile solid (VS) generation, costs and the associated levels of We also do not consider the cost of methane potential, and the methane policy support that are necessary to injecting renewable methane into conversion factors (MCF) used to make the projects viable are informed the grid as grid connection costs estimate the manure management by one-time capital expenses vary widely among countries, and emissions. The MCF is the percentage (CAPEX), production volumes, and the party responsible for paying the of the feedstock that is converted to operational expenses (OPEX) across fees varies according to local and methane, i.e., it is multiplied by the a given project’s lifetime. Data inputs national regulations. Finally, we do methane generation potential per in the cost modeling for this analysis not take into account costs related to kg VS. In this study, we expand the are taken from literature review, country-specific taxation, compliance analysis beyond the three countries using the most recent EU-specific with national permitting, planning, in the previous study to assess the data available. As with the technical bio-security, and safety regulations methane potential in all EU countries.1 potential assessment, we base our (Lukehurst & Bywater, 2015). cost assessment on the assumption that all the renewable methane COST-POTENTIAL ANALYSIS Manure Management potential goes toward that end use To evaluate the relative costs of and not the others. All results are in Our cost assessment of renewable supplying renewable methane to constant 2018 euros. Our analysis, methane production from livestock the EU, we conduct a bottom-up described further below, estimates manure uses the same approach in economic assessment of the cost of the wholesale production cost of Baldino et al. (in press) but expands it production for each feedstock and power and CNG for either transport to evaluate the potential from all EU conversion process to estimate the or heating separately. countries. The methane production minimum viable selling price (MSP) potential at a given farm is pro- of renewable methane across sectors. To estimate the value of an incentive portional to the number of cattle Next, in conjunction with feedstock needed for each production pathway and type. We focus on the cost of availability and cost, we use the MSP to reach an NPV of zero, we subtract production of manure-renewable for each production mode to estimate the wholesale cost of gas (for heat methane from dairy cattle and or transport) and grid power (for non-dairy cattle. Although we include 1 We defined “eastern” member states the power sector) from the MSP. pig manure in our technical potential to align with ministers who attended a We take projected CNG prices from analysis, we exclude it from our cost meeting before the UNFCCC COP 23: https://unfccc.int/news/eastern-european- the World Bank (2015). For power, analysis because the low methane countries-express-full-support-for-cop23 we use wholesale prices for each potential per kg of pig manure greatly

4 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION WORKING PAPER 2017-26 THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-CARBON RENEWABLE METHANE IN HEATING, POWER, AND TRANSPORT IN THE EU

worsens the economics of renewable sludge could be processed similarly demonstration-scale and commer- methane production. Reflecting data once it leaves the wastewater cial-scale cellulosic facilities in limitations, this analysis factors in treatment facility. the United States and the European only the potential from the largest Union, which has been much slower farms of more than 100 cattle. We Gasification and Methanation than what modeled economics have have previously found that farms with predicted (Miller et al., 2013). We evaluate the costs of gasifying fewer than 100 cattle are generally too municipal solid waste, agricultural small to generate sufficient manure residues, and forest residues to Power-to-Gas for cost-effective biogas generation. generate power. For all uses, we Our power-to-gas assessment, assess gasification combined with In this analysis, we distinguish between as in Baldino et al. (in press), methanation. In all cases, the facility’s the methane potential for dairy and closely follows the methodology in CAPEX is dominated by the gasifica- Christensen and Petrenko (2017) and non-dairy cattle in both Western and tion equipment; methanation would Searle and Christensen (in press). Eastern Europe per IPCC emission most likely be less than 5% of the We project power prices based on a factors for manure management total CAPEX (Gotz et al., 2016). The model from the National Renewable (Table 3). We derive CAPEX and CAPEX, OPEX, and feedstock costs Energy Laboratory, average capacity OPEX values for anaerobic digestion are all the same as in Baldino et al. factors for solar power in the from Agostini et al. (2016) and U.S. (in press). European Union, current grid fees in EPA (2018), factoring in economies these countries, and our projected of scale; we describe this in Baldino Because no commercial facility exists changes in grid fees according to et al. (in press). For biogas used to for gasification-methane production, the greater balancing and distribu- produce electricity, we assume only we apply the same deployment model tion costs with increased renewable the CAPEX and OPEX costs for the for this assessment as in Baldino et al. power penetration. digester plant. For the heating and (in press). Total facility deployment transport energy cases, we include is based on the ramp-up capacity additional costs for biogas condition- and resource constraints for each EU Results ing to grid quality and compression, member state. Based on Agostini et We find that economics significantly as well as pipeline al. (2016), we assume a lifetime of 20 constrain the achievable potential for connection to the fossil gas years for the project. The first and of renewable methane. Significant grid. The CAPEX for the livestock second rounds of facility planning policy support will be necessary methane pathway includes the cost and construction have only one to drive substantial volumes of of construction of 8 km of pipeline large commercial-scale facility built renewable methane into transport, to connect farms to the fossil gas in each country, while subsequent heating or power. grid, based on the best-case pipeline rounds include two facilities each. cost from Baldino et al. (in press). The total number of facilities by Figure 1 and Figure 2 illustrate the In practice, the distance between 2050 is constrained by resource total technical potential, as well as farms and the fossil gas grid could availability in most member states, the potential achievable at several vary significantly by farm and region, ranging from 0 to 1 facility total incentive rates in €/m3 for the thus introducing substantial uncer- in some smaller countries, to 16 in transport, heating, and power sectors, tainty to this method of renewable some of the larger countries with broken down by pathway in 2050. methane production. substantial resource availability. Even at high incentive levels, the cost-viable potential of renewable We acknowledge that these assump- Wastewater Treatment methane is lower than the technical tions of facility deployment are potential for electricity generation, We apply the same parameters as somewhat arbitrary, but we include and only around half the technical in Baldino et al. (in press) in this them because such constraints potential for heating or transport. assessment to estimate the MSP for are necessary to reflect limits on renewable methane from wastewater financing opportunities. That is, there Livestock manure offers the sludge. For anaerobic digestion of are a limited number of banks and greatest technical potential for primary and secondary sludge from other investors willing to invest in renewable methane across all three centralized wastewater treatment renewable methane projects, even sectors, providing as much as 54% facilities in Europe, OPEX and if the projects are expected to be of the potential for the electric- CAPEX costs are estimated using economically viable. We aim for our ity generating sector and as much the same cost factors as for manure constraints to reflect the observed as 43% if the methane is injected management, assuming that the historical timeline of deployment of into the gas grid for use in heating

WORKING PAPER 2017-26 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION 5 THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-CARBON RENEWABLE METHANE IN HEATING, POWER, AND TRANSPORT IN THE EU

or transport. However, we find that Livestock Manure Wastewater Sludge Power-to-methane Gasification very little renewable methane from 40 livestock manure can be cost-viable in the transport or heating sectors at 35 a realistic incentive rate of €1.50/m3. 30 A much larger amount of renewable methane from this feedstock can be 25 cost-viable in the power sector. This 20 large difference in potential for using renewable methane from livestock 15 manure among the three sectors is 10 largely attributable to high costs Billion cubic meters of transporting renewable methane 5 from farms to the fossil gas grid via 0 pipelines. 0.75/m3 1.50/m3 4/m3 Total 0.75/m3 1.50/m3 4/m3 Total Incentive Incentive Incentive Technical Incentive Incentive Incentive Technical Potential Potential Figure 2 shows cost curves for these two scenarios in 2050, illustrating the Transport or heat Power amount of renewable methane that Figure 1: Total technical potential and economically viable potential of renewable could be delivered at varying incentive methane delivered for transport or heating, or power, with varying levels of policy 3 levels in €/m . At most volumes of incentive (constant 2018 €) in 2050; for comparison, the current average EU natural renewable methane production, it is gas price is €0.20/m3 more expensive to bring renewable methane to the grid than to use it for ) 3 35 generating electricity. Electricity Sector Renewable Methane Delivery to Grid

Figure 3 presents the potential for 30 renewable methane at an incentive level of €1.75/m3 as well as the total 25 technical potential for the power sector and the transport or heating 20 sectors in 2030 and 2050. These figures show how the potential for 15 renewable methane increases over time. The difference in potential in 10 2030 versus 2050 demonstrates how gasification and power-to- 5 gas, as emerging technologies with 0 high CAPEX, will require more time Renewable Methane Production (Billion m 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.41.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 to develop. We estimate very little Incentive ( /m3) potential for renewable methane Figure 2: Renewable methane potential (billions of cubic meters) vs. incentive value from these pathways in the 2030 (€/m3 of ) for heating or transport, or power in 2050 timeframe. Anaerobic digestion, on the other hand, is already a mature We find that renewable methane residential heating, or 3% of demand technology, so we assume that the delivered to the fossil gas grid, where in the power sector in 2050. full potential of renewable methane it would be used primarily by the production from livestock manure heating or transport sectors, could GHG MITIGATION POTENTIAL and sewage sludge at each cost replace approximately 12% of the level could be available by 2030. total projected methane demand Renewable methane has a high Anaerobic digesters also have in 2050 if its full technical potential potential to reduce GHG emissions relatively low CAPEX, so the avail- were utilized (, particularly in the electricity sector. ability of financing options would not 2016a). Renewable methane could Figure 6 illustrates the technical be likely to constrain expansion of fulfill 7% of transport energy demand, greenhouse gas mitigation potential this pathway. 10% of demand for energy for for renewable methane and the savings

6 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION WORKING PAPER 2017-26 THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-CARBON RENEWABLE METHANE IN HEATING, POWER, AND TRANSPORT IN THE EU

achievable at an incentive level of 3 40 €1.75/m in 2050 for heat or transport 2030 2050 and power. Higher GHG savings are most cost-effectively achievable 35 in the power sector because it can more easily use renewable methane 30 from livestock manure – a pathway with extremely high GHG reductions 25 from avoided raw manure methane emissions. For heating or transport, it 20 is not cost effective to use more than a small fraction of livestock manure 15 potential at any incentive level, so Billion cubic meters the very high GHG savings from this pathway are not realistically available 10 in these sectors. Though the overall greenhouse gas mitigation potential 5 is positive for the power sector, there are some specific feedstocks 0 1.75/m3 Technical 1.75/m3 Technical where renewable methane performs Potential Potential worse in terms of GHG intensity than Transport or heat Power the predicted power mix in 2050. This is because we project a few Figure 3: Total renewable methane supply available for transport or heat, or power, member states to have extremely low at an incentive level of €1.75/m3 in 2030 and 2050, shown alongside the total power-grid GHG intensities in 2050. technical potential.

Discussion 250 At 1.75/m3 Incentive Total Technical Potential One of our key findings is that it is much more cost-effective to use renewable methane from livestock manure in the 200 power sector than in the heating or transport sectors. The prohibitively high transportation cost of bringing 150

renewable methane to the fossil e Reduction 2 gas grid severely limits the realistic potential of using this pathway for transport or heating. For this reason, 100 the realistic GHG mitigation potential of using renewable methane in the power sector vastly outweighs that of

Million Tonnes CO 50 using it for heating and power.

Another key finding is that high levels of policy support will be necessary 0 to support these pathways. Some Combustion for Renewable Methane Electricity for Transport or Heat policy support measures in place today contribute toward renewable Figure 4: Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of renewable methane for transport or methane production, but we do heating, or power in 2050 at an incentive level of €1.75/m3. not include these incentives in our cost analysis because they are likely purchase price, of as much as €0.22/ methane potential increase at this to change before 2050. Existing kWh of electricity derived from incentive level and above (see Figure incentives, however, can help manure biogas, equivalent to roughly 2). The current incentive level in provide context for our findings. As €0.70/m3 for methane on a pre-com- France is thus sufficient to drive some an example, France currently offers bustion basis (Najdawi, 2017). In our production of renewable methane, a feed-in tariff, or a guaranteed analysis, we start to see renewable but not nearly the full technical

WORKING PAPER 2017-26 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION 7 THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-CARBON RENEWABLE METHANE IN HEATING, POWER, AND TRANSPORT IN THE EU

potential of the country. This is The most recent EU-wide data be a significant feedstock source for consistent with what we observe in collected on these crops was in the renewable methane production. France and other EU countries that Farm Structure Survey in 2010, which support renewable methane. It is clear indicates that cover crops are not Furthermore, the use of existing that higher incentive levels would common in Europe. Using this survey cover crops for renewable methane be needed to increase renewable data, Alliance Environnement (2017) production introduces concerns over methane penetration. finds that only 3.24% of arable land indirect emissions from material in the EU (excluding France and displacement. We would expect In transport, we find that renewable Lithuania because of lack of data) that diverting cover crops from methane is a particularly expensive has cover and catch crops. There is existing uses, such as animal fodder, decarbonization strategy. Policy also little data on changing trends to renewable methane production 3 support of €1.50/m would be in cover cropping over time in the would lead to indirect needed to encourage a small amount EU, making it difficult to predict the change (ILUC) (Takriti, Malins, & of renewable methane in transport, potential. Based on agricultural land Searle, 2016). We would also expect 3 and €4/m of policy support would use information from the Alliance that cover crops would cause signifi- be needed to drive a substantial level Environnement (2017) report, we cant GHG emissions associated with of penetration. These support levels estimate that cover crops will have their cultivation, especially because are roughly equivalent to subsidies increased by almost 3% to covering of low yields. of €1.50 and €4 per liter of diesel 6% of arable land in 2030, using this To better compare our results with equivalent or a carbon price of €580– study’s baseline scenario.3 Based on those of others in the literature, for €1,350 per tonne of CO2e abated. this trend, we would still not expect illustrative purposes we include a If renewable methane were used to a large fraction of arable land to be rough estimate of renewable methane deliver GHG reductions toward the double-cropped in 2050. As a part potential from cover crops. We EU’s vehicle CO2 standards, it would of its study, Alliance Environnement estimate that, at most, 1.4 billion m3 cost €90–€230 per gCO2e saved (2017) conducted interviews with of renewable methane per year could per kilometer over the lifetime of farmers to determine why they do not 2 be available from cover cropping in a vehicle. Compared with the €95 plant cover and catch crops. In many 2050, which would add just 4% to per gCO2e per km penalty for not regions in the EU, including France our calculated technical renewable complying with the proposed 2030 and Germany, it is not possible to methane potential. standards, it seems unlikely that plant catch or cover crops after maize renewable methane will represent because the harvest season occurs a cost-effective strategy for too late in the year before winter. COMPARISON WITH meeting those standards (European Moreover, cover crops tend to be low- LITERATURE Commission, 2018). yielding crops such as forage radish In a study commissioned by gas and yellow mustard and generally do transport companies and renewable THE POTENTIAL FOR not produce seed because of the short methane producers, van Melle et RENEWABLE METHANE FROM duration available for their growth. In al. (2018) estimate the 2050 EU COVER CROPS many cases, Alliance Environnement renewable methane potential to be Other studies of EU renewable reported that farmers do not harvest more than three times higher than methane potential include cover cover crops at all and plough them in the present study—122 billion 3 crops as a feedstock (van Melle into the soil when preparing fields for m per year, compared with our 3 et al., 2018; ADEME, 2018). In our the main crop, presumably because estimate of 36 billion m of technical 3 primary analysis, we do not include of the low yields and value of these potential for power, or 29 billion m this feedstock as a potential source crops. Given these barriers, we do of gas delivered to the grid for use for renewable methane production not expect cover and catch crops to in heating or transport. One-third because there is little data on the use of the total potential in this study of cover crops. comes from cover and catch crops. 3 We calculate a 34% increase in cover Van Melle et al. (2018) assume that cropping for the European Union excluding France using data from Alliance 50% of the current harvested area Environnement, 2017: 2,051,600 ha in 2010 of wheat and maize in the EU, 2 This calculation assumes the following: to 2,757,451 ha in 2015. Assuming a linear excluding the Nordic countries, the vehicle efficiency of 0.0363 L/km (what increase in cover cropping to 2030, and, would typically be needed to meet the 95 similarly, extrapolating the very slight Baltic countries, and Ireland) can be

gCO2e/km standard for 2021 (Regulation decrease in total arable land area to 2030 double-cropped with silage maize (EC) No. 333/2014); 15-year vehicle lifetime; (from Eurostat data), we calculate that 6% and triticale, a wheat-rye hybrid, 117,000 km annual distance driven by each of arable land would have catch and cover (Odyssee-Mure, n.d.). cropping in 2030 in a baseline scenario. delivering 40% the yield of the main

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crop. These assumptions contrast There is little empirical data on the literature. Another study reported strongly with the findings from methane leakage from biogas plants, on methane leaks in , finding our literature review of substantial and stakeholders have reported that that gas-spark ignition engines emit barriers to expanding energy double- leakage is uncertain (CARB, 2015). around 1% of the methane delivered to cropping (Alliance Environnement, the engine, while compression-ignition Measuring total CH emissions from 2017). Van Melle et al. (2018) do 4 engines emit 2%–3% of the methane not cite evidence suggesting that it a renewable methane facility is (Aschmann, 2014). Leakage can also is likely or even possible that their expensive and time-consuming. occur from gas-tight storage tanks, assumption on cover crop production Based on information from a limited digesters, and digestate storage when can be achieved. number of academic studies, the methane can diffuse through the IEA (Liebetrau, Reinelt, Agostini, & membranes. The reported range of Compared with the present analysis, Linke, 2017) found that biogas plants methane leakage in the literature was the authors fail to account for realistic can present both systemic and 0.22% to 4% (Liebetrau et al., 2017). limitations on biogas production accidental emissions of methane. For from anaerobic digestion related to instance, plants that store digestate, These estimates of leakage from losses in renewable methane condi- a by-product of biogas production, in renewable methane production and tioning and compression. Van Melle open tanks emit a continuous stream use are similar to those for fossil et al. (2018) also assume gasifica- of methane (Giuntoli et al., 2017). gas. Like renewable methane, there tion yields of 0.55 m3 of renewable Other systemic leakages can derive is considerable uncertainty around methane per kg feedstock, a four-fold from flanges, which are connecting leakages from the production of increase compared with their 2015 and fortifying pieces on pipes, and conventional fossil and shale gas, assessment of a futuristic, nth of a as gas diffusion from the tanks’ and the numbers are most likely kind (that is, matured technology), membrane covers. Accidental leaks underestimated. The broad range gasification and Fischer-Tropsch are often linked to over-pressure of leakage estimates for fossil gas plant without any specific justifica- in the digester, leading to biogas include 0.4% for extraction and tion for the assumption. Fischer- being vented or flared. The range of processing (Kollamthodi et al., Tropsch synthesis, a cleaning and methane leakages emerging from 2016), 1.14% for life-cycle emissions refining process, is not necessary for studies that have tried to quantify it of conventional gas and 1.21% for combusting syngas, which is a mix is between 0.001% and 1.11% of the shale gas (CARB, 2015), 0.2%–10% of predominantly carbon monoxide biomethane produced, although one with a mean of 2.2% for natural gas and hydrogen. Removing this part of study noted a major leak of 5% due supply chains (Balcombe, Anderson, the process should improve yields by to improper operation (Liebetrau et Speirs, Brandon, and Hawkes, 2015), only around 25% (Brynolf, Taljegard, al., 2017). Kollamthodi et al. (2016) and 12% for shale development Grahn, & Hansson, 2017; Hannula, 2015; found methane leakage of 1.2% from (Howarth, 2015). Schemme, Samsun, Peters, & Stolten, the anaerobic digester, 0.5% for Given these uncertainties, we 2017). Another major difference upgrading biomethane, and 0.1% for conduct a sensitivity analysis to between the present study and van injecting biomethane into the grid. assess the effect of leakage on our Melle et al. (2018) is that our study The Joint Research Centre assumes results based on values from a CARB accounts for the limitation of facility a leakage rate of 3% from gas condi- Low Carbon Fuel Standard pathway deployment rate to 2050, whereas tioning after anaerobic digestion, also calculation. We find that for a small van Melle et al. (2018) assume that assuming that this leaked methane sewage sludge digester, the carbon enough facilities will be built to is flared, which reduces its climate intensity of renewable methane with process all available feedstock in impact because flaring converts most no leakage would be 0.64 kgCO e/ 2050. In addition to cover cropping, methane to carbon dioxide, a less 2 m3, which provides GHG savings of these differences account for most of potent greenhouse gas. 75% compared with fossil gas. If there the discrepancy between the results Further leaks can occur when were a 5% leakage rate, the carbon of van Melle et al. (2018) and those of combusting gas for use in heating, intensity would be 1.54 kgCO e/m3, the present study. 2 power, or transport. In a gas engine for which provides GHG savings of only combined heat and power, leakages 40% compared with fossil gas. With METHANE LEAKAGE DURING can occur because of uncombusted a leakage rate of 11%, this pathway for RENEWABLE METHANE methane released through the a small digester would not have any PRODUCTION exhaust, known as “methane slip.” GHG savings compared with fossil Gas leakage is also an important con- Liebetrau et al. (2017) found an gas. For a bigger digester, CARB sideration when evaluating the GHG average leakage estimate of 1.89% of provides a lower carbon intensity performance of renewable methane. input gas through methane slip across value, so in this case, there would

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need to be an even higher leakage and GHG intensity linked to different Strong policy support would be rate for the digester to not provide feedstocks. Using livestock manure needed to overcome the cost any GHG savings compared with for renewable methane can deliver challenges of producing renewable fossil gas. very large GHG savings because of methane. Even with generous avoided methane emissions from incentives, economics will limit We caution against drawing any the management of raw manure, renewable methane deployment. strong conclusions from this sen- without compromising the economic With a high policy incentive of €1.75/ sitivity analysis. The lack of robust and ecological functions of manure m3, 78% of the total technical potential data on methane leakage lends fertilization. Using other sustainable for power could be achieved in 2050, considerable uncertainty to the wastes and residues and renewable while only 43% of the total technical overall climate impacts of renewable power for gas production can also methane and fossil gas. Even a deliver strong climate benefits potential for the heating or transport relatively small rate of leakage if methane emissions are limited sectors could be achieved due to the can undermine the GHG benefits through careful plant design. higher cost of transporting renewable of renewable methane pathways, methane to the gas grid. With this except for manure biogas, which has We find that sustainable renewable level of incentive, CO2e emissions significant climate benefits even with methane can make only a small could be reduced by as much as 166 contribution to decarbonizing the moderate methane leakage. Much million tonnes annually by 2050 if EU energy economy. It can have more data collection is needed to renewable methane were used for a much stronger role in delivering confirm or revise the estimated GHG power generation. intensities for both renewable and GHG reductions in the power sector fossil gas assumed in this study. compared with heating and transport. Overall, we find that renewable We find a total technical potential methane can play a modest role in for renewable methane in the EU in decarbonizing the EU’s long-term Conclusions 2050 of 36 billion m3 per year for . Renewable methane Not all renewable methane is created power generation. Alternatively, the production should be seen as one equal. It is important that policy- same resource base could supply 29 support measures distinguish among billion m3 to the heating or transport strategy in a suite of measures, such the different feedstocks and tech- sectors. These volumes would cover as efficiency improvements, electrifi- nological pathways and prioritize 7% of transport energy demand, cation, and use of other low-carbon renewable methane production from 10% of energy demand for heating, alternative fuels, that must be the lowest-carbon options. Primary and 3% of demand in the electrical implemented to achieve long-term considerations are the sustainability generation sector in 2050. decarbonization.

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Appendix

Table A1: Predicated GHG intensities for grid electricity for each Table A2: Total technical potential in million cubic meters of member state in kgCO2e per cubic meter (delivered electricity, renewable methane, by country not input feedstocks) Total Technical 2030 Grid 2050 Grid Total technical Potential for Country Emissions Emissions potential for the the transport Austria 1.22 1.15 power sector or heat sectors Country (million cubic meters) (million cubic meters) Belgium 2.82 2.41 Austria 676 534 Bulgaria 2.98 1.41 Belgium 1177 935 Croatia 1.89 1.24 Bulgaria 1007 963 Cyprus 7.62 4.31 Croatia 418 374 Czech Republic 1.37 0.77 Cyprus 235 223 Denmark 0.12 0.12 Czech Republic 876 791 Estonia 7.26 4.14 Denmark 1159 808 0.66 0.53 Estonia 165 148 France 0.54 0.48 Finland 841 777 Germany 2.93 1.28 France 4448 3478 Greece 4.00 2.54 Germany 4903 3740 Hungary 4.75 3.45 Greece 594 558 Ireland 4.39 3.26 Hungary 760 658 Italy 3.37 2.34 Ireland 909 652 Latvia 0.05 0.07 Italy 2177 1712 Lithuania 0.11 0.13 Latvia 372 347 Luxembourg 3.20 3.23 Lithuania 470 424 Malta 9.95 9.95 Luxembourg 185 175 5.14 3.83 Malta 183 181 Poland 1.13 0.82 Netherlands 1518 1039 Portugal 3.08 1.97 Poland 2044 1550 Romania 1.59 0.73 Portugal 860 757 Slovakia 0.73 0.82 Romania 2263 2045 Slovenia 0.13 0.14 Slovakia 573 541 Spain 2.48 1.59 Slovenia 260 237 Sweden 0.10 0.11 Spain 3333 2456 3.83 3.05 Sweden 717 633 United 2888 2439 Kingdom

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