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The Renewable Route to Sustainable Transport, a Working Paper Based THE RENEWABLE ROUTE TO SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT A WORKING PAPER BASED ON REMAP AUGUST 2016 WORKING PAPER Copyright © IRENA 2016 Unless otherwise stated, this publication and material featured herein are the property of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and are subject to copyright by IRENA. Material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that all such material is clearly attributed to IRENA and bears a notation that it is subject to copyright (© IRENA 2016). Material contained in this publication attributed to third parties may be subject to third-party copyright and separate terms of use and restrictions, including restrictions in relation to any commercial use. ISBN 978-92-95111-68-4 (Print) ISBN 978-92-95111-67-7 (PDF) AboutIRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future, and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and fi nancial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. Acknowledgements This working paper has benefi ted from the valuable engagement of the REmap Transport Action Team and the authors thank all of those involved. Additionally, valuable comments and feedback was provided by Kerstin Geppert (FU-Berlin), Marc Londo (ECN), Gerard Ostheimer (Novozymes), Jacob Teter (IEA), Tali Trigg (GIZ) and Martijn van Walwijk (HAN). IRENA colleagues Maria Ayuso, Francisco Boshell, Laura Gutierrez, Ruud Kempener, Paul Komor, Jasper Rigter and Jeff rey Skeer also provided valuable feedback. This paper also benefi ted from insights gathered from the Transport Action Team webinars held in 2014 and 2015 and the authors thank the presenters: Carolina Anzola (UPME), Lewis Fulton (UC Davis), Jian Liu (CNREC), Marc Londo (ECN), Gereon Meyer (VDI/VDE), Jack Saddler (UBC) and Gerald Weber (Bioenergy 2020+). This REmap working paper, the IRENA Transport Action Team, and IRENA’s ability to engage with countries benefi ted greatly from voluntary contributions provided by Germany and Japan. Authors Dolf Gielen, Deger Saygin and Nicholas Wagner (IRENA) For more information about the REmap programme or IRENA’s Transport Action Team, please email remap@irenaorg Citation: IRENA (2016), The Renewable Route to Sustainable Transport: A Working Paper based on REmap. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, wwwirenaorgremap Disclaimer This publication and the material featured herein are provided “as is”, for informational purposes� All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material featured in this publication� Neither IRENA nor any of its offi cials, agents, data or other third-party content providers or licensors provides any warranty, including as to the accuracy, completeness, or fi tness for a particular purpose or use of such material, or regarding the non-infringement of third-party rights, and they accept no responsibility or liability with regard to the use of this publication and the material featured therein� The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of the Members of IRENA, nor is it an endorsement of any project, product or service provider� The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries� CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� III LIST OF TABLES������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������IV KEY FINDINGS ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������1 1 INTRODUCTION TO REmap ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 4 1�1 IRENA’s REmap programme��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 4 1�2 Transport’s role in REmap and what this working paper examines ������������������������������������������������������������5 1�3 Brief overview of REmap transport sector findings ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 6 2 SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS FROM REMAP �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 9 2�1 Current situation �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 9 2�2 Role of renewables ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������11 2�3 Renewable energy use in the sector today ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������11 2�4 Global potential of renewable energy in 2030 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 12 2�5 Country findings �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������16 2�6 Costs and benefits of renewable energy technologies ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������21 2�7 Key indicators and mapping progress ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������24 2�8 Deeper structural change and aggressive technology adoption with the Doubling Options �������26 2�9 Priority areas for action ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������26 3 ELECTRIC MOBILITY ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 27 3�1 Current status and potential identified in REmap to 2030 �������������������������������������������������������������������������� 27 3�2 Market developments in different countries and regions �����������������������������������������������������������������������������28 3�3 Systems thinking and interlinking transport and other sectors �����������������������������������������������������������������33 ●●Role of cities..............................................................................................................................................................33 ●●Material needs ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������34 ●●Power system and battery storage from electric mobility �������������������������������������������������������������������35 3�4 Action areas for electric mobility ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������35 ●●Costs of electric vehicles ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������35 ●●Infrastructure needs..............................................................................................................................................38 ●●Synergies between transport and other sectors ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������39 3�5 Suggestions to increase electric mobility ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������39 4 ADVANCED LIQUID BIOFUELS �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������42 4�1 Recent developments and near-term outlook ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������42 4�2 Potential identified in REmap to 2030 ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������45 4�3 Action areas for advanced liquid biofuels �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������46 ●●Feedstock availability �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������46 ●●Biofuels and climate change..............................................................................................................................47 ●●Technology cost......................................................................................................................................................48
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