DOCSLIB.ORG

Dynamics of Energy Systems: Methods of Analysing Technology Change

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Dynamics of Energy Systems: Methods of Analysing Technology Change Dynamics of Energy Systems Methods of analysing technology change Lena Neij May 1999 Thesis for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Engineering Department Environmental and Energy Systems Studies Lund University © 1999, Lena Neij and the respective publishers Printed at KFS AB, Lund, Sweden ISRN LUTFD2/TFEM—99/1019—SE + (1-136) ISBN 91-88360-42-3 LenaNeij Department of Environmental and Energy Systems Studies Lund Institute of Technology Lund University P.O. Box 118 SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden DISCLAIMER Portions of this document may be illegible in electronic image products. Images are produced from the best available original document. Organization Document name LUND UNIVERSITY DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Department of Environmental and Date of issue Energy Systems Studies May 21,19 99 Gerdagatan 13, SE-223 62 LUND, SWEDEN CODEN. LUTFD2/TFEM - - 99/1019 - - SE + (1-136) Author(s) Sponsoring Organization Lena Neij Title and subtitle Dynamics of Energy Systems: Methods of analysing technology change Abstract Technology change will have a central role in achievinga sustainable energy system. This calls for methods of analysing the dynamics of energy systems in view of technology change and policy instruments for effecting and accelerating technology change. In this thesis, such methods have been developed, applied, and assessed. Two types of methods have been considered, methods of analysing and projecting the dynamics of future technology change and methods of evaluating policy instruments effecting technology change, i.e. market transformation programmes. Two methods are focused on analysing the dynamics of future technology change; vintage models and experience curves. Vintage models, which allow for complex analysis of annual streams of energy and technological investments, are applied to the analysis of the time dynamics of electricity demand for lighting and air-distribution in Sweden. The results of the analyses show that the Swedish electricity demand for these purposes could decrease over time, relative to a reference scenario, if policy instruments are used. Experience curves are used to provide insight into the prospects of diffusion of wind turbines and photo voltaic (PV) modules due to cost reduction. The results show potential for considerable cost reduction for wind-generated electricity, which, in turn, could lead to major diffusion of wind turbines. The results also show that major diffusion of PV modules, and a reduction of PV generated electricity down to the level of conventional base-load electricity, will depend on large investments in bringing the costs down (through RD&D, market incentives and investments in niche markets) or the introduction of new generations of PV modules (e.g. high-efficiency mass-produced thin-film cells). Moreover, a model has been developed for the evaluation of market transformation programmes, i.e. policy 21 instruments that effect technology change and the introduction and commercialisation of energy-efficient 41 technologies. The method of evaluation has been applied to assess methods used to evaluate Swedish market 61 transformation programmes. The evaluation model, and the assessment of the Swedish evaluation methods, SIS illustrates a need for more extensive evaluation methods than those used today. enl Key words Energy, energy system, energy efficiency, renewable energy, sustainable energy, vintage models, lighting, air- distribution, experience curves, wind power, PV modules, market transformation, evaluation Classification system and/or index terms (if any) Supplementary bibliographical information Language English ISSN and key title ISBN 91-88360-42-3 Recipient’s notes Number of Pages Price 136 Security Classification Distribution by (name and address) Department of Environmental and Energy Systems Studies, Gerdagatan 13, S-223 62 Lund, Sweden I, the undersigned,being the copyright owner of the abstract of the above-mentioned dissertation, hereby grant to all reference sources permission to publish and disseminate the abstract of the above-mentioned dissertation. Signature. Date April 9. 1999 Dynamics of Energy Systems Methods of analysing technology change Lena Neij AKADEMISK AVHANDLING som for avlaggande av teknologie doktorsexamen vid tekniska fakulteten vid Lunds Universitet kommer att offentligen forsvaras i Horsal A vid Institutionen for fysik, Solvegatan 14, fredagen den 21maj 1999, klockan 13.15 Preface This thesis is performed within the interdisciplinary research field of environmental and energy systems analysis. Energy systems involves the interplay between several factors such as energy, social and economic development, technology, the environment, resource management, equity and security. The work presented in this thesis is directed to the analysis of technological systems. The thesis includes five articles which have been published in, or submitted to, scientific journals. The original articles, which are referred to by their Roman numerals I-V, are collected at the end of this thesis. The introductory essay (Chapters 1-8) is intended to provide a summary of the articles and put the research into perspective. The first chapter presents the issues that form the background and the motivation for the work carried out. Such issues include, for example, the need for technology change within energy systems as well as the need for methods to analyse and effect such changes. Chapter 2 describes the theory of technology change, and more specifically technology change within energy systems. The theoretical background presented in this chapter forms a platform for all the methods that are developed, applied and assessed within this thesis, for the analysis of the dynamics of technology change within energy systems. These methods are presented in Chapters 3-5. Chapter 3 characterises the method of vintage models, which is applied to the analysis of the dynamics of energy efficiency. This chapter opens with a general presentation of such models, and is followed by a summary of the work presented in Articles I and II. Chapter 4 characterises the method of experience curves, which is applied to analyse cost reduction as a function of cumulative production. A general description of experience curves is given, followed by a discussion on potential and limitations of such curves. The work presented in Articles III and IV is also summarised. Chapter 5 discusses different policy instruments and the evaluation of energy efficiency programmes, specifically market transformationprogrammes (Article V). The conclusions of the work and a discussion on the aims and directions for future work are presented in Chapter 6. The articles are based on independent work performed by the author of this thesis at the Department of Environmental and Energy Systems Studies at Lund University. However, Article I was drafted mainly by my co-author and advisor at the time, Dr Joel Swisher. In this process, I assisted Dr Swisher in the modelling work, and I also performed the analysis of energy use in industry and street lighting. It should also be mentioned that the work resulting in Articles III and IV, i.e. the use of experience curves, was initiated during my participation in the Young Scientists’ Summer Programme at HAS A in the summer of 1994 under the supervision of Dr Arnulf Griibler. The work presented in the five articles has been further extended and discussed in conference papers, reports and book chapters not included in this thesis. In the introductory essay, however, reference is made to such additional publications. Acknowledgements First, I would like to thank my advisor, Professor Thomas B Johansson, for guiding me into the field of energy system analysis. I would also like to thank my assistant advisor, Lars Nilsson, for his support and constructive criticism throughout the course of this work. I would like to express my appreciation to Dr Joel Swisher for supervision and fruitful co-operation during the first year of my post-graduate studies. Likewise, I owe many thanks to Dr Arnulf Griibler, for enthusiastic discussions and supervision during my time as a summer student at HAS A in 1994. I would also like to thank my colleagues, Bengt Johansson and Peter Helby, for constructive criticism. In fact, I would like to thank all my colleagues at the Department of Environmental and Energy Systems Studies for encouraging me in my work. Finally, I would like to thank my husband Hans, for his never-ending encouragement and emotional support. Financial support by the Energy System Studies (AES) Programme of the Swedish National Board for Industrial and Technical Development (NUTEK) is gratefully acknowledged. Abstract Technology change will have a central role in achieving a sustainable energy system. This calls for methods of analysing the dynamics of energy systems in view of technology change and policy instruments for effecting and accelerating technology change. In this thesis, such methods have been developed, applied, and assessed. Two types of methods have been considered, methods of analysing and projecting the dynamics of future technology change and methods of evaluating policy instruments effecting technology change, i.e. market transformation programmes. Two methods are focused on analysing the dynamics of future technology change; vintage models and experience curves. Vintage models, which allow for complex analysis of annual streams of energy and technological investments, are applied to the analysis of the time dynamics of electricity demand for lighting and air-distribution
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Commercialization and Deployment at NREL: Advancing Renewable
    Commercialization and Deployment at NREL Advancing Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency at Speed and Scale Prepared for the State Energy Advisory Board NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Management Report NREL/MP-6A42-51947 May 2011 Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof. Available electronically at http://www.osti.gov/bridge Available for a processing fee to U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-0062 phone: 865.576.8401 fax: 865.576.5728 email: mailto:[email protected] Available for sale to the public, in paper, from: U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Microgeneration Strategy: Progress Report
    MICROGENERATION STRATEGY Progress Report JUNE 2008 Foreword by Malcolm Wicks It is just over two years since The Microgeneration Strategy was launched. Since then climate change and renewables have jumped to the top of the global and political agendas. Consequently, it is more important than ever that reliable microgeneration offers individual householders the chance to play their part in tackling climate change. In March 2006, there was limited knowledge in the UK about the everyday use of microgeneration technologies, such as solar thermal heating, ground source heat pumps, micro wind or solar photovolatics. Much has changed since then. Thousands of people have considered installing these technologies or have examined grants under the Low Carbon Buildings Programme. Many have installed microgeneration and, in doing so, will have helped to reduce their demand for energy, thereby cutting both their CO2 emissions and their utility bills. The Government’s aim in the Strategy was to identify obstacles to creating a sustainable microgeneration market. I am pleased that the majority of the actions have been completed and this report sets out the excellent progress we have made. As a consequence of our work over the last two years, we have benefited from a deeper understanding of how the microgeneration market works and how it can make an important contribution to a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050. Building an evidence base, for example, from research into consumer behaviour, from tackling planning restrictions and from tracking capital costs, means that we are now in a better position to take forward work on building a sustainable market for microgeneration in the UK.
    [Show full text]
  • Energy Conservation
    2016 Centre County Planning Opportunities Energy Conservation Centre County Comprehensive Plan — Phase II Implementation Strategies Introduction County-wide In 2003, the Centre County Board of Commissioners Planning adopted a County-wide Comprehensive Plan which included Goals background studies, inventories of existing conditions, goals and recommendations. These recommendations, revised Adopted 2003 and updated, continue to serve as a vision and a general direction for policy and community improvement. Those specific to energy conservation will be discussed here along with implementation strategies to achieve the recom- #1 — Identify, pre- mendations. For more detailed background information serve, enhance and monitor agricultural please refer to the 2003 Comprehensive Plan available on resources. the Centre County Planning and Community Development webpage: #2 — Identify, pre- serve, and monitor http://centrecountypa.gov/index.aspx?nid=212. environmental and Centre County seeks to balance growth, protection of natural resources. resources, investment in compatible new building Small wind turbines like erected #3 — Preserve his- development, and incentives for sustainable development. at the DEP Moshannon Office, toric and cultural Much of this effort includes stewardship, community can help offset electricity costs resources. outreach and expert professional service. to the property. #4 — Ensure decent, safe, sanitary and affordable housing in suitable living surroundings, com- patible with the en- vironment for all The Keystone Principles individuals. In 2005, Pennsylvania adopt- Redevelop first #5 — Appropriately ed the “Keystone Principles Provide efficient infrastructure locate and maintain for Growth, Investment and existing and pro- Resource Conservation”, a Concentrate development posed community set of principles that have Increase job opportunities facilities, utilities, focused Pennsylvania on and services for all Foster sustainable businesses reinvestment and reuse of its residents.
    [Show full text]
  • Chapter Eight: Energy
    CHAPTER EIGHT: ENERGY NOTE: None of this chapter has been adopted by Thurston County as the joint plan with Olympia for the unincorporated part of the Olympia Growth Area. INTRODUCTION industrial and institutions. A look at the energy uses of each sector provides a picture of where to target energy conservation measures. Each Why have an energy chapter? Society spends a sector presents various degrees of possibilities lot of money on energy. Most of these dollars for local government influence on energy leave town--some even leave the country. This conservation. Understanding the various sectors has contributed to balance-of-payments and their use of energy is key to energy problems, increasing concerns about conservation policies. The transportation and dependence on foreign sources, and economic residential sectors account for 29 percent of the instability. Much of our energy use generates energy consumption in Washington State. pollution and/or relies on nonrenewable sources. Some decrease in energy use in the This is not sustainable. transportation sector can be achieved through local action. However, a reduction in the Though much is beyond our local influence, residential sector energy use seems more within some things can be done. Households (families) our scope of action. And, while commercial, spend a lot on energy. The community is better industrial and institutional uses are considerably off if these dollars can stay in the local economy smaller than transportation or residential uses, and be spent on other goods and services. local efforts can be taken in these sectors to aid Conserving energy conserves money which can the overall picture of energy conservation.
    [Show full text]
  • National Policies and the Role of Communities, Cities and Regions
    CLIMATE CHANGE AND RENEWABLE ENERGY NATIONAL POLICIES AND THE ROLE OF COMMUNITIES, CITIES AND REGIONS A report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) to the G20 Climate Sustainability Working Group (CSWG) JUNE 2019 © IRENA 2019 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given to IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. ISBN: 978-92-9260-136-2 Citation: IRENA (2019), Climate Change and Renewable Energy: National policies and the role of communities, cities and regions (Report to the G20 Climate Sustainability Working Group (CSWG)), International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org Acknowledgements G20 Climate Sustainability Working Group members provided valuable comments and suggestions on this study. The report was prepared by Elisa Asmelash and Ricardo Gorini.
    [Show full text]
  • Energy Efficiency Market Transformation Summit Report
    ENERGY EFFICIENCY MARKET TRANSFORMATION SUMMIT REPORT INITIATIVES, DESIGNS, AND KEY THEMES Prepared for ComEd Prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc. • Beth Davis • Jan Harris • Dan Violette Designed by Kristin Salvador FEBRUARY 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Executive 4. Issue Area 1: How does market 7. Conclusion Summary transformation work in today’s energy page 46 page 5 efficiency portfolio? Page 17 8. Supporting 2. Introduction Portfolio Theme 1: Synergies exist between resource Material page 12 acquisition and market transformation programs page 49 Portfolio Theme 2: A holistic view of energy efficiency • Regulatory activities across resource acquisition and market 3. Summary Spotlight: transformation programs is important of Summit Estimating Portfolio Theme 3: Regulatory treatment of market energy savings Activities transformation programs will need to differ from resource from resource page 15 acquisition programs acquisition and market 5. Issue Area 2: What are the must-have transformation components of a market transformation programs initiative? • Expert Page 24 Summaries Portfolio Theme 1: In-depth knowledge of targeted • Presentations energy efficiency markets is critical from the Portfolio Theme 2: The intervention strategy, including Summit leverage points, must be clearly defined • Output from Portfolio Theme 3: A regulatory framework supporting the Summit the intervention strategy is needed Sessions • Market 6. Issue Area 3: What market transformation Transformation initiatives could be pursued in the Resource List Midwest
    [Show full text]
  • Energy and Buildings
    Joint Research Centre The European Commission’s in-house science service Energy and Buildings Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency Energy consumption About 37% of final energy consumption is taken by the building sector (households and services). A gradual shift over the last five years is observed from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, such as solar energy, wind power and bio-energy. By means of Directives, Recommendations and Regulations the European Commission is giving direction to the future of sustainable energy use and supporting the low carbon energy policy. Energy performance of buildings and efficient energy end-use are the important topics of interest. European standardisation facilitates exchange of goods, information and services to ensure a competition in a single The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD 2010/31/EU) concerns the European market. residential and the tertiary sector (offices, public buildings, etc.). Member states must apply minimum requirements as regards the energy performance of new and existing buildings. A common calculation methodology should include all the aspects which determine the final and primary energy consumption of the building. This integrated approach should take into account aspects such as heating and cooling installations, lighting, the position and orientation of the building, heat recovery and the application of renewable energy. The member states are responsible for setting the minimum standards for buildings that are calculated on the basis of the above methodology. The philosophy that supports the reduction of energy consumption in buildings is presented in three priority steps: 1. Energy saving (improve insulation), 2. Increase energy efficiency (building installations), Contact: 3.
    [Show full text]
  • Energy Efficiency in OECD Countries: a DEA Approach
    energies Article Energy Efficiency in OECD Countries: A DEA Approach Filip Fidanoski 1,*, Kiril Simeonovski 2 and Violeta Cvetkoska 2 1 School of Economics, UNSW Business School, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia 2 Faculty of Economics, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Skopje 1000, Macedonia; [email protected] (K.S.); [email protected] (V.C.) * Correspondence: f.fi[email protected]; Tel.: +61-466-337-561 Abstract: This paper deals with energy efficiency examined through an integrated model that links energy with environment, technology, and urbanisation as related areas. Our main goal is to discover how efficiently developed countries use primary energy and electricity (secondary energy). We additionally want to find out how the inclusion of environmental care and renewable energy capacity affects efficiency. For that purpose, we set up an output-oriented BCC data envelopment analysis that employs a set of input variables with non-negative values to calculate the efficiency scores on minimising energy use and losses as well as environmental emissions for a sample of 30 OECD member states during the period from 2001 to 2018. We develop a couple of baseline models in which we find that countries have mean inefficiency margins of 16.1% for primary energy and from 10.8 to 13.5% for electricity. The results from the extended models show that taking care about environment does not affect efficiency in general, while the reliance on energy produced from renewable sources does slightly reduce it. Keywords: energy efficiency; primary energy; electricity; DEA analysis Citation: Fidanoski, F.; Simeonovski, K.; Cvetkoska, V.
    [Show full text]
  • Challenges Facing Combined Heat and Power Today: a State-By-State Assessment
    Challenges Facing Combined Heat and Power Today: A State-by-State Assessment Anna Chittum and Nate Kaufman September 2011 Report Number IE111 © American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy 529 14th Street, N.W., Suite 600, Washington, D.C. 20045 (202) 507-4000 phone, (202) 429-2248 fax, www.aceee.org Challenges Facing Combined Heat and Power Today, © ACEEE CONTENTS Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................................... v Glossary ........................................................................................................................................................ vi Introduction.................................................................................................................................................... 1 Combined Heat and Power Today ........................................................................................................... 1 Methodology ............................................................................................................................................. 5 Part I: General Findings ................................................................................................................................ 6 Economics ...............................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • International Experience with The
    International Experience with Public Benefits Funds: A Focus on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency FINAL REPORT Prepared by: Ryan Wiser, consultant to the Center for Resource Solutions Catherine Murray, consultant to the Regulatory Assistance Project Jan Hamrin, Center for Resource Solutions Rick Weston, Regulatory Assistance Project Prepared for: Energy Foundation, China Sustainable Energy Program October 16, 2003 Table of Contents 1. Introduction and Summary ..........................................................................................................4 1.1 Report Purpose and Content .........................................................................................................4 1.2 Report Summary...........................................................................................................................5 2. Overview.......................................................................................................................................10 2.1 What is a PBF? ...........................................................................................................................10 2.2 Where Are PBFs Used?..............................................................................................................10 3. Why Have PBFs Been Established? ...........................................................................................22 3.1 Historical Overview....................................................................................................................22
    [Show full text]
  • DC Power for Improved Data Center Efficiency
    DC Power for Improved Data Center Efficiency March 2008 My Ton Brian Fortenbery Ecos Consulting EPRI William Tschudi Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory DC Power for Data Center Efficiency 1 March, 2008 The work described in this report was performed as part of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's (LBNL) "High-Performance High-Tech Buildings" project focused on improving energy efficiency in Laboratory, Cleanroom, and Data Center facilities. This project was sponsored by the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Industrial program with technical leadership by LBNL. Ecos Consulting and EPRI Solutions performed the research reported herein collaboratively under subcontract to LBNL and with input from industry advisors and manufacturers. Legal Notice This report was prepared as a result of work sponsored by the California Energy Commission (Energy Commission). It does not necessarily represent the views of the Energy Commission, its employees, or the State of California. The Energy Commission, the State of California, its employees, contractors, and subcontractors make no warranty, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the use of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the Energy Commission, nor has the Energy Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of this information in this report. DC Power for Data Center Efficiency 2 March, 2008 Table
    [Show full text]
  • Give Your Imaging Equipment a Credible Sign of Environmental Excellence
    The EU Ecolabel for Imaging Equipment "The official European label for Greener Products” Choose the EU Ecolabel for your Imaging Equipment if you want to show your commitment to a better environment. Once it's on your products, the Meet your customers' demand EU Ecolabel guarantees Today, consumers are more aware that Efficient paper management protecting the environment is fundamental. Efficient energy use Four out of five European consumers would Minimised use of hazardous substances like to buy more environmentally friendly products, provided that they are properly The EU Ecolabel shall comprise products which are certified by an independent organisation. marketed for office and/or domestic use, and produce printed images in the form of a paper document, With the EU Ecolabel on your products, you photo, or digital image. Furthermore, imaging offer consumers a reliable logo to easily equipment which produces a digital image from a identify the best environmentally friendly hard copy through a scanning process is additionally products that are available on the European included in this product group’s scope. market. Give your Imaging Equipment a credible sign of environmental excellence... apply for the EU Ecolabel! ◊ For a quick test, use the check list on the back! For more information… … on the scheme, its feature, the actors involved, the application process: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/ecolabel … on the detailed criteria for Imaging Equipment product group: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/ecolabel/products-groups-and-criteria.html They said it! “The main environmental impacts of imaging equipment are linked to the use phase. Printers, copiers and multifunctional devices awarded with the EU Ecolabel are designed so that the paper consumption can easily be limited (i.e.
    [Show full text]