WORKING PAPER 2017-26 The potential for low-carbon renewable methane in heating, power, and transport in the European Union Authors: Chelsea Baldino, Nikita Pavlenko, and Stephanie Searle (ICCT), and Adam Christensen (Three Seas) Date: October 2018 Keywords: biogas, renewable energy, anaerobic digestion, availability, decarbonization, sustainability Introduction in transport. Some stakeholders high reductions of greenhouse gas have also advocated the inclusion (GHG) emissions. This study presents the potential and of renewable methane and other cost of production for renewable low-carbon fuels in the vehicle In this study we expand our previous methane in the European Union (EU) assessment to estimate the technical carbon dioxide (CO2) standards in 2050, following a previous paper (ART Fuels Forum, 2018; ACEA, n.d.; and cost-effective potential for using assessing the potential for renewable NGVA Europe, 2017). As member renewable methane from sustainable methane for the transport sector states consider how to achieve their feedstocks in the power, heating, and in France, Italy, and Spain (Baldino, climate goals, they must assess the transport sectors. We assess barriers Pavlenko, Searle, & Christensen, in realistic potential as well as the costs to producing renewable methane for press). Policymakers throughout the for renewable methane. In 2018, the each sector and identify the maximum EU are evaluating their alternative power sector is the leading user amount of fossil gas that could realis- energy options to help deliver on of renewable methane in the EU tically be displaced in the 2030–2050 their air quality and climate change at 62%, with Germany, the United timeframe. We also estimate the mitigation goals within the transport Kingdom, and Italy responsible for potential for GHG reductions from and stationary heating and power more than 77% of renewable methane renewable methane in each sector. sectors. One of these options is production in the 28 EU member These results help to identify the role renewable methane. states (Kampman et al., 2016). that renewable methane can have in medium- and long-term decarboniza- The recast Renewable Energy Proponents of renewable methane tion of the European Union and the Directive for 2021-2030 (RED II; have touted its climate and air-quality level of policy incentives that will be European Union, 2018) includes benefits when displacing diesel in the necessary to achieve this benefit. ambitious targets for renewable heavy-duty vehicle fleet. Importantly, energy in all three sectors, with the feedstocks and technologies each EU member state required used to produce renewable methane Methodology to implement the directive using play a large role in determining the For this study, we analyze the specific measures that promote the actual climate benefits. Silage maize total technical potential for use of low-carbon energy (General provides about half of the renewable renewable methane from a variety Secretariat of the Council of the methane in the European Union, of feedstocks, including livestock European Union, 2018). Renewable but it competes with food and feed manure, sewage sludge, waste and methane from qualifying feedstocks crops for agricultural land and causes residue biomass, and renewable is one option for meeting the RED substantial indirect land-use-change electricity in 2030 and 2050. We II targets for the overall renewable emissions (Valin et al., 2015). On conduct a cost analysis for each energy target including power, the other hand, wastes, residues, feedstock and technology pathway heating, and transport and for the and renewable power can be used to estimate cost-supply curves for sub-target for advanced biofuels to produce renewable methane with the use of renewable methane in Acknowledgments: This work was generously funded by the European Climate Foundation. Thanks to Jacopo Giuntoli and Peter Mock for helpful reviews. © INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION, 2017 WWW.THEICCT.ORG THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-CARBON RENEWABLE METHANE IN HEATING, POWER, AND TRANSPORT IN THE EU power, heating, or transport. Lastly, Table 1: Low-carbon renewable methane feedstocks, technology pathways, and we estimate the maximum total lifecycle GHG intensities for gaseous fuels used in the transport sector. potential GHG savings for renewable Technology methane as well as the GHG savings Feedstock pathway GHG intensity Reference that could be achieved at realistic CARB, average -264 gCO e/MJ levels of policy support. We conduct Livestock manure 2 LCA value for dairy (-9.45 kgCO e/ m3) our analysis at the national level and Anaerobic 2 cows digestion present aggregated EU-level results. 19 gCO2e/MJ Sewage sludge 3 CARB, average We present renewable methane (0.68 kgCO2e/ m ) Municipal and potential in the European Union on -26 gCO e/MJ industrial solid 2 Wang, 2017 a pre-combustion basis, or before (-0.93 kgCO e/ m3) waste 2 the renewable methane is used for Gasification and -6 gCO e/MJ energy by the end user. We present Crop residues methanation 2 Wang, 2017 (-0.21 kgCO e/ m3) our findings for two alternatives: 2 -12 gCO e/MJ delivering renewable gas to the gas Logging residues 2 Wang, 2017 (-0.42 kgCO e/ m3) grid for use in either the stationary 2 Renewable solar heating or transport sector, or onsite 26 gCO e/MJ Christensen & power-to-gas in 2 (0.93 kgCO e/ m3) Petrenko, 2017 combustion of renewable methane to 2030 Electrolysis and 2 methanation generate electricity to be sold to the Renewable solar (power-to-gas) 12 gCO e/MJ Christensen & power grid. power-to-gas in 2 (0.42 kgCO e/ m3) Petrenko, 2017 2050 2 EU-28 Power European FEEDSTOCK SUSTAINABILITY 68.6 gCO e/MJ production, grid 2 Commission, 2016a; AND PATHWAY SELECTION (2.46 kgCO e/ m3*) average in 2030 2 Moomaw, 2011. In this study, we assess the potential EU-28 Power European 46.9 gCO e/MJ for renewable methane production production, grid 2 Commission, 2016a; (1.68 kgCO e/ m3*) only from sustainable, low-carbon average in 2050 2 Moomaw, 2011. feedstocks. We use the same Giuntoli, Agostini, Fossil fuel-derived 72 gCO e/MJ 2 Edwards, Marelli, assumptions regarding feedstock fossil gas (2.58 kgCO e/ m3) 2 2015 sustainability and pathway selection for renewable methane production as Note: CARB=California Air Resources Board. For livestock manure, the CARB GHG intensity in Baldino et al. (in press). The three values included high carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) reduction credits from avoided methane conversion pathways for renewable emissions. The gasification pathways include credits for exported electricity. * GHG intensities for electricity are for delivered electricity, not input feedstocks. methane production that we assess include anaerobic digestion, thermo- chemical gasification, and power-to- The feedstocks, technology the power sector, we calculate the gas, in which electricity is used to pathways, and lifecycle GHG intensi- GHG mitigation potential similarly, create methane. This study focuses ties used in the analysis are listed comparing renewable methane GHG on renewable methane produced in Table 1. We use these GHG inten- intensity to that of EU grid power. from wastes and residues that do sities to calculate the greenhouse We take the projected EU-level not have existing uses, including gas mitigation potential of using grid composition in 2030 and 2050 livestock manure, sewage sludge, these renewable methane pathways from the EU Reference Scenario and municipal solid waste, crop residues, relative to either fossil gas or elec- break this down to the national level and forestry residues. For the power- tricity. We assume that renewable based on 2015 grid composition in to-gas pathway, only solar power is methane replaces fossil gas in the each member state from Eurostat considered. Power-to-gas has been gas grid, which is then used in the (E3M-Lab, IIASA, & EuroCARE, discussed as a potential energy transport or heating sectors, while 2016). We combine this with mean storage and electrical grid balancing we consider average electrical grid life-cycle power-generation emission solution (Science Advice for Policy power in the power sector. For factors for each power source from by European Academies, 2018). heating or transport, we multiply Moomaw et al. (2011) to estimate Baldino et al. (in press) provides a the renewable methane volume by grid power GHG intensities for each more detailed explanation of how we the difference between the carbon member state. Table 1 provides the determined the choice of feedstocks intensities of fossil gas and the average grid carbon intensities in and the sustainable availability of specific feedstock and conversion the power sector in the EU in 2030 these feedstocks in our assessment. pathway assessed (see Table 1). For and 2050, while the individual GHG 2 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION WORKING PAPER 2017-26 THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-CARBON RENEWABLE METHANE IN HEATING, POWER, AND TRANSPORT IN THE EU intensities that we use for each assume a straw yield reduction of sewage sludge in our assessment member state are available in the 40% to account for growing oats at because methane potential is Appendix in Table A1. a non-optimal time of the year and less certain than that of domestic of a further 20% because of physical wastewater treatment sludge, since In our primary analysis, we do not limitations in harvesting as the industrial wastewater varies greatly include cover crops as a potential harvester cannot cut below ~12 inches in its organic matter composition. source for renewable methane from the ground. We assume a 15% Generally, it is likely that most of production because there is little data moisture content for oat yields based the methane potential from sewage on the use of cover and catch crops, on FAOSTAT data to first calculate sludge is already being used for also known as sequential crops, inter- the dry mass yield of total straw renewable methane production.