COBRA User's Manual
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United States Environmental Protection Agency Washington, DC 20460 June 2020 User’s Manual for the Co-Benefits Risk Assessment Health Impacts Screening and Mapping Tool (COBRA) Version: 4.0 Developed for State and Local Energy and Environment Program Table of Contents Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................ 3 INSTALLATION INSTRUCTIONS.............................................................................................. 4 System Requirements.................................................................................................................. 4 Installation................................................................................................................................... 4 Launching the Model .................................................................................................................. 4 Technical Assistance ................................................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER 1. Introduction............................................................................................................. 5 What is COBRA? ........................................................................................................................ 5 How is COBRA used? ................................................................................................................ 6 Overview of Model ..................................................................................................................... 8 Caveats and Limitations ............................................................................................................ 16 Additional Information ............................................................................................................. 17 CHAPTER 2. Quick-Start Tutorial .............................................................................................. 19 Step 1. Select the baseline data. ................................................................................................ 20 Step 2. Define the emissions changes and select the geography for emissions changes. ......... 21 Step 3. Run the scenario............................................................................................................ 23 Step 4. View and save the results. ............................................................................................. 23 View the results..................................................................................................................... 23 Export and save your results. ................................................................................................ 27 CHAPTER 3. Baseline Data ........................................................................................................ 29 Basic Options ............................................................................................................................ 29 Advanced Options ..................................................................................................................... 29 Custom Baseline Emissions .................................................................................................. 29 Custom Population, Incidence, and Valuation Datasets ....................................................... 33 Custom Health Effect Function Datasets .............................................................................. 35 Exploring Baseline Emissions Data .......................................................................................... 36 CHAPTER 4. Creating a New Emissions Scenario ..................................................................... 38 Selecting Scenario Geography .................................................................................................. 38 Selecting Tier Level .................................................................................................................. 39 Defining Scenario Emissions .................................................................................................... 39 Manually Entering Emissions Changes ................................................................................ 40 Importing Emissions Changes from AVERT ....................................................................... 40 Reviewing Scenario Definition ................................................................................................. 42 Running Scenario ...................................................................................................................... 42 CHAPTER 5. Viewing Results .................................................................................................... 44 Viewing Results in Table Form ................................................................................................ 44 Viewing Results in Maps Form ................................................................................................ 48 Saving Results ........................................................................................................................... 48 CHAPTER 6. Using Mapping Functionality. .............................................................................. 49 Customizing Map Appearance .................................................................................................. 49 Defining Interval Breaks ....................................................................................................... 51 Changing Color Scheme ....................................................................................................... 54 1 June 2020 Modifying Map Scale ........................................................................................................... 55 Exploring Data .......................................................................................................................... 56 Exporting Map .......................................................................................................................... 58 Printing or Exporting Map as Image ..................................................................................... 58 Exporting Map for Use in Other Mapping Software ............................................................ 59 Glossary ........................................................................................................................................ 61 Appendix A: Dispersion Modeling in COBRA .............................................................................. 1 Appendix B: Derivation of Health Impact Functions ..................................................................... 1 Appendix C: Health Impact Functions ........................................................................................... 1 Appendix D: Baseline Incidence Rates for Adverse Health Effects ............................................... 1 Appendix E: Population Forecasts .................................................................................................. 1 Appendix F: Economic Value of Health Effects ............................................................................ 1 Appendix G: Instructions for Running COBRA Using Batch Files ............................................... 1 Appendix H: References ................................................................................................................. 1 2 June 2020 Acknowledgements/Installation Instructions ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS COBRA was originally developed by Abt Associates Inc. in 2002 and updated in 2012, 2017, and 2020 under contract with EPA’s State and Local Energy and Environment Program. It is managed by Emma Zinsmeister in EPA’s Office of Atmospheric Programs’ Climate Protection Partnerships Division. EPA thanks the following individuals for assessing the technical and scientific aspects of COBRA during a formal technical peer review of the original model: Dallas Burtraw, Resources for the Future; Nino Kuenzli, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California; and Jonathan Levy, Department of Environmental Health, Harvard University. We also thank several individuals and organizations identified as likely users of COBRA that served as an informal review group and provided comments on the functionality, ease of use, and/or technical aspects of the original model: Bryan Garcia, Connecticut Clean Energy Fund (now with Connecticut Green Bank); Lisa Herschberger, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency; Marney Hoefer, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (now with Alliant Energy); Chris James, Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection (now with The Regulatory Assistance Project); Iyad Kheirbek, Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (now with C40 Cities); Derek Murrow, Environment Northeast (now with the Natural Resources Defense Council); and Glenn Sappie, North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources. In addition, we thank Art Diem (EPA HQ), Doug Latimer (EPA Region 8), Bryan Hubbell (EPA OAQPS), Neal Fann (EPA OAQPS), Alison Eyth (EPA OAQPS), and Mark Houyoux (EPA OAQPS) for their extensive assistance and feedback during the development of the original model and/or during the update. Finally, EPA thanks the staff of Abt Associates Inc. that worked on COBRA,