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Rwanda's Spatial Economy

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Rwanda's Spatial Economy RESHAPING URBANIZATION IN RWANDA Economic and Spatial Trends and Proposals Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Note 1: Urbanization and the Evolution of Public Disclosure Authorized Rwanda’s Urban Landscape December 2017 Standard Disclaimer: . This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Copyright Statement: . The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone 978‐750‐8400, fax 978‐750‐4470, http://www.copyright.com/. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202‐522‐2422, e‐mail [email protected]. Cover photo: By Dr Antoine R. Gasasira (Own work) [CC BY‐SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by‐sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons Note 1: Urbanization and the Evolution of Rwanda’s Urban Landscape Table of Contents Cover Note ............................................................................................................................. vi 1 Understanding the Dynamics of Rwanda’s Urban Transition ............................................. 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 Urbanization and urban growth ................................................................................................ 1 Urban expansion........................................................................................................................ 7 Rwanda’s Urban System—Institutional Framework and Trends in Development .............. 8 Urbanization policy and key planning framework ..................................................................... 8 Urban planning and regulatory legislation .............................................................................. 10 The Urban System ..................................................................................................................... 14 Secondary cities and other cities of focus ............................................................................... 15 Rwanda’s Spatial Economy ............................................................................................. 17 Economic activity in Kigali ....................................................................................................... 18 A gradual deconcentration ...................................................................................................... 19 Spatial convergence in living standards ................................................................................... 20 Connectivity ................................................................................................................... 22 Connectivity and economic activity ........................................................................................ 22 Domestic connectivity ............................................................................................................. 23 Regional connectivity .............................................................................................................. 27 Implications for connective infrastructure .............................................................................. 29 Conclusions and Perspectives ......................................................................................... 30 References ............................................................................................................................. 32 Boxes Box 1. Urban Definitions in Rwanda ............................................................................................................. 2 Box 2. Zoning and densification .................................................................................................................. 12 Figures Figure 1. Rwanda administrative district boundaries, showing the location of Kigali, Secondary Cities and other towns of focus ....................................................................................................... v Figure 2. Settlements of 5,000 or more persons and minimum density of 1,000 persons per km2, 2002 ................................................................................................................................................. 3 Figure 3. Settlements of 5,000 or more persons and minimum density of 1,000 persons per km2, 2015 ................................................................................................................................................. 3 Figure 4. Fertility and infant mortality trends by residence (2005=100) ...................................................... 5 Figure 5. Factor increase in population density by sector, 2002‐2012 ......................................................... 6 iii Reshaping Urbanization in Rwanda: Economic and Spatial Trends and Proposals Figure 6. Total fertility rate by district in 2015 .............................................................................................. 6 Figure 7. Built‐up area at sector level in 2002 and 2012 .............................................................................. 7 Figure 8. City population and GDP estimated from luminosity of night‐time lights, 2012 ......................... 14 Figure 9. Rwanda’s urban system: The capital, secondary cities, and other towns of focus ...................... 15 Figure 10. Poverty rates by district, Rwanda, 2001‐2011 ........................................................................... 20 Figure 11. Births in health facilities and infant mortality in urban and rural areas, 2000‐2010 ................. 21 Figure 12. Primary school attendance and adult literacy ........................................................................... 21 Figure 13. Market access index and new firm establishment ..................................................................... 22 Figure 14. Road network, Rwanda .............................................................................................................. 24 Figure 15. Road density (km/100km2) and share of roads in poor condition, Rwanda .............................. 24 Figure 16. Rural Access Index (%) ................................................................................................................ 25 Figure 17. Agricultural output (US$ million) ............................................................................................... 26 Figure 18. Transport costs to major cities (US$/ton) .................................................................................. 27 Figure 19. Regional connectivity (US$/ton) ................................................................................................ 28 Tables Table 1. Fertility and infant mortality rates by residence ............................................................................. 4 Table 2. Rwanda's urban system ................................................................................................................. 17 Table 3. Comparison of projected and target urban populations in secondary cities, 2020 ...................... 17 iv Note 1: Urbanization and the Evolution of Rwanda’s Urban Landscape Figure 1. Rwanda administrative district boundaries, showing the location of Kigali, Secondary Cities and other towns of focus v Reshaping Urbanization in Rwanda: Economic and Spatial Trends and Proposals Cover Note Reshaping Urbanization in Rwanda: Economic and Spatial Trends and Proposals is a product of Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA), jointly provided by the Poverty and Equity Global Practice and the Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice at the World Bank. The objective of this report is to inform the Government’s policies and strategies on urbanization as a driver of economic development, job creation, and poverty reduction through the following four stand‐alone but closely related notes. Note 1: Urbanization and the Evolution of Rwanda’s Urban Landscape Note 2: Internal Migration in Rwanda Note 3: Urbanization, Job Creation, and Poverty Reduction in Rwanda Note 4: Profiling Secondary Cities in Rwanda—Dynamics and Opportunities Note 1 examines Rwanda’s urbanization process since 2002 by analyzing satellite images and other sources. The changes in urban population and built‐up areas are discussed together with the characteristics
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