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Q1 2018 Dubai Residential Report Q 1 2 0 18

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Q1 2018 Dubai Residential Report Q 1 2 0 18 CHESTERTONS MENA Q 1 2 0 18 OBSERVER DUBAI RESIDENTIAL MARKET OVERVIEW 1 Q1 2018 DUBAI RESIDENTIAL REPORT Q 1 2 0 18 Report Highlights Prices: Q1 witnessed continuing corrections in 2017 while transaction values decreased by 16%. sales prices with apartment and villa prices falling The number of completed unit transactions Chestertons MENA Services by 5% on average representing the highest increased by 10% from the previous quarter quarterly decline in apartment sales prices since reflecting only a 2% increase in transaction value, 2014. indicating a decline in average ticket sizes. Dubai Valuations The communities with the highest declines were Marina continued to be the most popular Mortgage and Secured Lending Business Bay (-9%) and Dubai Silicon Oasis (-9%) community in terms of completed unit transaction Portfolio Valuations in terms of apartments and Palm Jumeirah (-8%) volumes and values while Business Bay dominated and the Meadows and the Springs (-8%) in terms the off-plan sales market. of villas. Advisory and Research The number of new launches declined during the Outlook: With substantial pipeline stock due to be Financial Feasibilities quarter with the majority of developers aiming to released to the market, the moderate economy Highest and Best Use Studies deliver the current pipeline before 2020. and population growth rate, further declines in Market Research sales and rental values are expected. In addition, Conceptual Advisory and Project Positioning Studies Rents: Rental rates for both apartments and villas Off-plan sales transactions are expected to decline fell by 2%, highlighted by a 4% decline in the further, with completed unit transactions being Project Redevelopment/Repositioning Advisory Greens (apartments) and Palm Jumeirah (villas). driven by end-users rather than investors due to Investment Strategies – Acquisition and Disposal The scale of the decline was evenly spread across shrinking rental yields. different unit types, as opposed to the previous Sales and Leasing quarters where the larger units were more severely Commercial affected. Industrial Transactions: Chestertons’ Q4 2017 Observer Residential predictions have been proven to be accurate. Retail Overall, the volume of transactions fell by 10%, while values also fell by 9%. The declining demand Property/Facilities Management for off-plan properties continued as the number of transactions decreased by 19% compared to Q4 Commercial Mixed-Use Residential Residential Market – Q1 2018 International Properties Price Rental Ready Units Off-Plan Units London Off-Plan Residential Movements QoQ Movements QoQ Transactions Transactions International Homes and Investments International Relocations -5% -2% 10% -19% Apartments Apartments Volumes Volumes -5% -2% 2% -16% Villas Villas Values Values Source: Chestertons Analysis and REIDIN 2 CHESTERTONS MENA OBSERVER DUBAI RESIDENTIAL 3 Q 1 2 0 18 RESIDENTIAL Sales Prices & Quarterly Change APARTMENTS QoQ Movement Q4 2017 Q1 2018 -1% -2% 1,728 -3% 1,683 -4% CHANGE PERCENTAGE -5% 1,288 1,371 1,320 1,192 1,178 -6% 1,095 1,163 1,110 1,441 957 1,046 850 -7% AED SALES PRICES AED SALES 894 792 764 824 831 757 897 807 729 1,386 653 -8% 631 -9% -10% Business Bay Discovery Gardens Downtown Dubai Land Dubai Marina Dubai Motor City Dubai Silicon Oasis Dubai Sports City International City JLT JVC The Greens The Views Figures in AED/Sq Ft Source: Chestertons Analysis VILLAS Q4 2017 Q1 2018 QoQ Movement Market Commentary 0% Apartment and villa sales prices in Dubai have Business Bay, Meydan City and Jumeirah Village Circle. -1% weakened by 5% during the first quarter of 2018. Apartments in Business Bay and Silicon Oasis saw the -2% CHANGE PERCENTAGE Moderate population growth coupled with the excess steepest downwards correction at 9%, with Dubai supply of residential stock brought further pressure on Land being the most resilient community witnessing a -3% the prices. drop of only 1%. Villas in Palm Jumeirah and the -4% As a result of the sales price decline, many end-users Meadows and Springs saw capital depreciation of 8%, 2,398 2,205 have decided to benefit from the current affordability while Jumeirah Park villas recorded the lowest decline -5% and as a result the number of completed unit of only 1%. -6% transactions increased by 10% compared to the Off-plan transactions declined by 10% in Q1 2018 previous quarter. compared to Q4 2017. The favourable payment plans AED SALES PRICES AED SALES -7% 1,279 988 1,204 Off-plan transactions, while still dominating the offered by developers continued to be the preferred 971 994 985 942 1,069 -8% market, have achieved a 19% decline in volumes. The method of “financing”, however, the competitive most popular areas in terms of completed unit banking sector has also introduced a range of -9% transactions volumes were Dubai Marina, Dubai Sports innovative lending schemes which, coupled with the Arabian Ranches Jumeirah Park Palm Jumeriah The Lakes The Meadows/ City and International City whereas the majority of decline in sales prices of completed units has The springs off-plan units that transacted are being built in increased the number of completed unit transactions. Figures in AED/Sq Ft Source: Chestertons Analysis 4 CHESTERTONS MENA OBSERVER DUBAI RESIDENTIAL 5 Q 1 2 0 18 RESIDENTIAL Market Rent & Quarterly Change APARTMENTS Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR QoQ Change 250,000 1% 1% 200,000 0% PERCENTAGE CHANGE PERCENTAGE -1% 150,000 -1% AED RENTAL -2% 100,000 -2% -3% 50,000 -3% -4% 0 -4% Business Bay DIFC Discovery Downtown Dubai Marina Dubai Dubai Dubailand International City JLT JVC The Greens The Views Dubai Motor Gardens Dubai Silicon Oasis Sports City City Source: Chestertons Analysis VILLAS 2BR 3BR 4BR 5BR AVG Market Commentary 500,000 2% 450,000 Rents for apartment and villas reported a 2% drop. The Victory Heights. Jumeirah Golf Estates was the only 400,000 1% CHANGE PERCENTAGE additional stock that was delivered over the previous community where no villa rental drops were recorded. quarter and a number of expatriates becoming The pace of villa supply delivery is expected to be faster 350,000 0% homeowners had an adverse impact on the rental than the demand increase; hence further villa rental 300,000 values. softening is expected over the upcoming quarters. 250,000 -1% The highest decline in apartment rental values was recorded in the Greens (-4%), followed by Business Bay, 200,000 AED RENTAL -2% International City, Jumeirah Village Circle and Motor City 150,000 all of which declined by 3%. The communities resilient to 100,000 the trend which maintained rental levels from the -3% previous quarter were DIFC, Dubai Marina and Dubai 50,000 Silicon Oasis. 0 -4% Villa rents saw the highest decline in Palm Jumeirah Arabian The The The Victory Al Furjan JVT Jumeirah Jumeirah Palm (-4%), followed by a 3% decline in Arabian Ranches and Ranches Springs Meadows Lakes Heights Island Golf Jumeirah Estates Source: Chestertons Analysis 6 CHESTERTONS MENA OBSERVER DUBAI RESIDENTIAL 7 Q 1 2 0 18 RESIDENTIAL Sales Transactions Volume of Residential Property Transactions Q1 2018 Value of Residential Transactions Q1 2018 Ready Properties Off-plan 7,000 6,000 5,754 AED Ready Properties 5,000 4,642 4.72 Off-plan 4,000 AED BILLION 3,121 6.03 3,000 2,839 BILLION 2,000 1,000 - Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Source: Chestertons Analysis and REIDIN Source: Chestertons Analysis and REIDIN 8 CHESTERTONS MENA OBSERVER DUBAI RESIDENTIAL 9 Q 1 2 0 18 RESIDENTIAL Sales Transactions COMPLETED UNITS OFF - PLAN UNITS Top 10 areas based on transaction volumes Top 10 areas based on transaction volumes Dubai Marina Business Bay Dubai Sports City Meydan City International City Jumeirah Village Circle Emirates Living Dubailand Downtown Dubai Al Furjan Jumeirah Lakes Towers Dubai Marina Palm Jumeirah Zabeel Dubailand The Lagoons Barsha Heights Dubai South Jumeirah Village Circle MBR City - 100 200 300 400 500 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Source: Chestertons Analysis and REIDIN Source: Chestertons Analysis and REIDIN Top 10 areas based on transaction values (in million AED) Top 10 areas based on transaction values (in million AED) Dubai Marina Emirates Living Dubai Marina Palm Jumeirah Dubai Sports City The Lagoons Downtown Dubai Arabian Ranches Jumeirah Village Circle Jumeirah Jumeirah Lake Towers Dubai Land Barsha Heights Al Furjan Palm Jumeirah - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Source: Chestertons Analysis and REIDIN Source: Chestertons Analysis and REIDIN 10 CHESTERTONS MENA OBSERVER DUBAI RESIDENTIAL 11 OBSERVER Contact Us MENA HEAD OFFICE 1802, Blvd. Plaza Tower 1 Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Blvd. Downtown Dubai, P.O. Box 283361 Nick Witty, BSc (Hons) MRICS Dubai, United Arab Emirates Managing Director-MENA [email protected] Office · +9714 381 0200 Fax · +9714 325 3359 Email · [email protected] Adam Wilson BSc (Hons) MRICS ACIArb Director, Head of International Valuations [email protected] DUBAI OFFICE 106, Rasis Business Center Vladimir Cvetinovic, MRICS Al Barsha 1, PO Box 283361 Associate Director, Valuations & Advisory-AUH Dubai, United Arab Emirates [email protected] Office · +9714 392 7818 Email · [email protected] Ivana Gazivoda Vucinic Head of Consulting ABU DHABI OFFICE Head of Valuation & Advisory Operations Office M01, Mezzanine Floor, Al Ghazal Building [email protected] Khalifa Park, P.O Box 128983 Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates Ellen Sleutjes Office · +9712 447 3100 Head of Property Management-UAE Fax · +9712 441 6200 [email protected] Email · [email protected] Disclaimer: All articles and data presented herein is intended for information purposes and has been compiled from sources deemed reliable including the Valuations and Research Department of Chestertons, sales and leasing staff, published data, and secondary sources. Though information is believed to be correct, materials presented is subject to errors, omissions, changes, or withdrawal without notice.
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