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Climate: the Counter Consensus

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Climate: the Counter Consensus CLIMATE: THE COUNTER CONSENSUS A PALAEOCLIMATOLOGIST SPEAKS Robert M. Carter t STACEY INTERNATIONAL Climate: The Counter Consensus To the scientists, technicians, administrative swff and ships' and ddfinp: crews of the Deep Sea and Ocean Drilling Pmgrammes, STACEY INTERNATfONAL whose exertions have helped to unlock ~ 28 Kensington Chure h SW::'tt Planet Earth's archive of climate change. LonJon W8 411H Tel, +44 (0)20 1221 7166; E,X: +44 (0)207792 9288 Email; jnf()@"itdcey~j nto:wntionaLco.uk !SBN, 978 I 906768294 {i Rehert lvt Carte' 2010 1357908642 elf Dat<l: A camiogue record (or rhb hook i.., /)v}ld,abk"":: from th~ Briti:-;h Libra£)· AU rights re;i.crved. Nn r~Ut ,;.If this rubiicH;~m m;'"Ey"be {.;,:pro\.1LKt:d, ;-;wred in a r~trie'v011 system, or tr-dnsmin<?d in ,my fmrn or by ~mv Inl2-anS, el~ctn)nic. m~chanicai, phorucopying, recording ~ir mherwise, with~)Ul the pr~m permission of rhe copynghr DWnef,';'. CONTENTS The idea that hum,m beings have changed and are changing List of figures 9 the basic climate system of the Earth through their industrial Prehtory essay by Tom Stacey 11 acti vi tics and burning of fossil fuels - the essence of the Cireens' Acronyms and abbreviations 20 theory of global warming - has about as much basis in science Author's Preface 21 as Marxism and Freudianism. C110bal warming, like Marxism, is Introduction 25 a political theory of actions, demanding campI iance with 1. The geological context of natural climate change "38 its rules. 2. Dangerous T,ventieth-Cemury warming? Marxism, Freudianism, global warming. These are proof - The short meteorological record 55 of which history offers so many examples - that people can 3. Climate sensitivity - how now COl! 70 be Slickers on a grand scale. To their fanatical foLLowers they are 4. Ocean matters: hobgoblins nf alarm 87 a substitute for religion. Global \varming, in particular, is a 5. Computer models: projection not pn:diction 115 creed, a faith, a dogma that has little to do with science. 6. Circumstantial evidence and the null hypothesis 130 If people are in need of religion, why don't they just turn to the 7. Noble cause corruptilln 150 genuine article? 8. Communicating the story 172 9. Science is not about consensus, Paul Johnson nor even the IPee's authority 1t) 1 10. Thc cost of precaution 211 11. Plan B: a fresh approach 218 12. Who are the climate denialists now? 229 13. Postscnptum 243 Acknowledgements 247 Notes on the figures 249 Recommended reading and reference material 2)3 Chapter notes 257 Index 307 LIST OF FiGURES Fig. 1 P,lotk UCC[U1 deep-water temperalure (lver the Lt.,! () III i II ion years 40 Fig. 2 Ch,mgcs in E:lrth', orbItal characteri,l ies around dK Slln th~l cxcrr connol o\·e, climate 41 Fig. 3 Surface :1Ir rempc'mture at Vostok :)t<1tlOn, Antarcric,l, over the l,lSl 400,000 years 42 fig. 4 Surface: air rempcrm.ures sincc the Last GhlCwrion (20,000 YC;lrs BP) eomp,1)"ed for Ant:·m:f1ca and Grecnbnd 45 Fig. 5 Cireenhmd ~uriac£' air temperature for thc last 5,000 years 45 Fig, 6 Glohal tcmrerllture for the last 2,000 year:; 46 Fig. 7 Rate elf temperature change over d1e Gn:.'enianJ icc car for the last 50,000 years 46 Fig. Sa The obsen·otional record uf suns!,ot cycles ~ince the early l7th Century 49 Fig.3b Sohlr [;llkmon (TS1) reeeheJ at the Ilip of the a rmo,,!, 11l"n.' 49 Fig. 9 Comparison of proxy records from OI)1<\n for the amOlll1[o of incoming cosmic raJiation and rainfall [('r ~l .3,500 ycar long period during the early ]·loloccne 51 Fig, 10 StandarJ atmospheric surface tcmp~rature since 1860 ')8 Fig.11a Estimated lower clTll10sphcrc glohd rempcrature record sincc 1950, based on measllrcmcnr~ from weather balloom 61 Fig. lIb Estimmcd global lower atl11(]~phere temperature since 1979, based on mensuremel11s irum s8ldlttes 61 Fig. 12 Global l<lwer ~ltlnosphere temperalure me<lsured irom sarellites ,mol ground thermometers, showing cllo1mg since 2002 (») Fig. 13 Surhu: ~ll:l1lUsphcril: air temperatures over Greenhm,j for the last 17,000 ye'1f.' 66 Fig. 14 Reconstructed pbnetary C>lrbc)!1 dioxide lcvd~ for the bst 600 million \'ears 75 Fig, 15 Model pn.ljecmm of the wonnin~ efreer (If injecting carh()l1 ,jioxidc into Earth's <Hmosphere 76 fig. 16 Projected w:mning to 2100 for a doubling of carbon dioxide' as In,licated hy lPCC modcls 79 Fig. 17 Comparis(Jn bet ween annuul wwl ~olar irmcliance and measured :;urf,1(e air tcmper;.lturc ~lt the coastal Greenland location Ammaosalik fnr the period 1881-2007 79 Fig. Jo Representation '1f the gloh,)] CClrhon blldget il11d the changing carbon isotope ratio nvt'f lllTll' 01 Fig. 19 Global (custZltic) seo-le\·el since the I'edk of the la"t glaCiation, 22,000 yr before l're~enl 91 9 Fig. 20 Selected long-term tide gauge records of sea-level from Northern Europe 93 Prefatory Essay Fig. 21 Two independent ,e;:dcvcl curves for Tuvalu. Pacific Ocean for 1978-2000 and 1994-2008 99 Fig. 22 Measured pH levels for surface ocean \vaters between 60'N and 60'S in the we~tem PacifIc Ocean 105 The author of Climate: the Counter C0F15ensu5 and I disputed over Fig. 23 Comparison between mea:;med smface tempermurc the book's title. Professor Robert M. (Bob) Carter resisted the to 2000, lPCC model projections of future temperature notion that anything he wrote might he taken to imply that science und projection of the 2001-2008 cooling trend 120 Fig. 24 c.:olT1pari~on between model-predicted rates of atmospheric could ever be about. 'consensus': science was about verifiable fact. warming and measurements of rates of atmospheric I saw his point, But I argued that the popular 'consensus' was indeed warming from weather ball[)()n~ (inside hack cover) that science was 'ahout' consensus; here was the democratic virus Fig. 25 Annual average air surface temperature for the Arcnc region for 1900-2006, projected ro 2060 126 gomg about its bminess. Hence, precisely, said I, was how so much Fig. 26 Reconstructed surface temperature curve, showmg llf the world, spoken (or by the (largely democratically attuned) the recovery from the Little Ice Age, 011 which <Ire ,uperimposed multi-dec8llal oscIllations 126 GS, had allowed itself to be aroused to a hemy of alarm at climate Fig. 27 Summnry plot of the tour! energy cont:l.ined in the change. The 'comcmus' among scientists was that global warming tropical storm systems DE the world since 1974 137 was taking piaCt, that it was an imminenr threat to the 'survival of Fig. 28 Sea ice anomalies 1979-2009 138 Fig. 29 Rc:constructed Holocene sen-ice cover for the Eas[em the planet', and that it was attributable wholly or at least l\rcri.C ocean 139 significantly to man-generated emissions of carbon dioxide. Fig. 10 Glacier length-records from different parts of the I was aware that that very statement of mine contained four world, starting before 1600 141 Fig. 31 Typical advertorial \'erSlon of the Mann, Bradley faouaL mis-assumptions, including that scientific truth could ever & Hughes hockey-stick Cllrve of reconstructed northern be determined by 'consensus'. As others have surely pointed out, hemisphere temper8turl~ since 'AD 1000' combined with the prevailing 'consensus' among astronomers in the early the lhennometer measured tcmperature record for the 20th cemury, and projected ro 2100 using GeM seventeenth century was that the sun circled the Earth: Galileo computer models I 53 was locked up for upholding the reverse. Fig . .32 S"Lllhcm hemisphere tree ring records from Tasmania, The title of your book, I could assure ollr author, countered Argentina and Chile 154 Fig. 33 Jim Hansen's famolls computer projections for hum"n not merely the supposed consensual opinion of collective scientific greenhouse-driven w,mning nut to 2020, as prcsented peers but the validity of the very concept of a 'consensus' of to [he US Congress in 198fl 188 scientific opinion. Fig. 34 World map of the Kcippen-Geir.:-er climate classification (inside front cover) As we are all now well aware, and Bob Carter makes clear in this work, such 'consensus' as may have been thought to prevail among the scientific community concerning the warming of the glohe was sustained throughout by data assembled hy a small clique of well-placed and often lately-arrived climatologists who have 10 11 CUf.HTE: THE CUUNTER CONSENSUS PREHT()RY ESSAY been selective, slovenly or wilfully distortive in their evaluation of the UK Met 01fice, and the Climatic Research Unit of the it. They have led the dance on this issue - a dance joined, I need University of East Anglia. The IPCC's 31-person directorate, not stress, since the 2008 Presidential election in the US, by the currently headed by the Indian busines,man and economist Dr leaders of all but one of the democra(Ic West, and all but one of Rajendra Pachauri, was drawn not from scientists as such but from a the official Oppositions, the exceptions being, respecrively, the miscellany of senior civil servants, academics and savants from a economist Vaclav Klaus, President of the Czech Republic, and politically correct span of nationalities and continents. (somewhat shyly J Australia's Liberal-National Party opposition. Human responsibility for gloh:d warming rapidly took centre There are symptoms at the rime of my writing this of America's stage in the workingb of the IPCC, its pronouncements, protocols Republicans adopting a similar srance.
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