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Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standards for Canada

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standards for Canada GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND VEHICLE FUEL EFFICIENCY STANDARDS FOR CANADA Pollution Probe February 2005 Written by Bob Oliver, P.Eng. POLLUTION PROBE is a non-profit charitable organization that works in partnership with all sectors of society to protect health by promoting clean air and clean water. Pollution Probe was established in 1969 following a gathering of 240 students and professors at the University of Toronto campus to discuss a series of disquieting pesticide-related stories that had appeared in the media. Early issues tackled by Pollution Probe included urging the Canadian government to ban DDT for almost all uses, and campaigning for the clean-up of the Don River in Toronto. We encouraged curbside recycling in 140 Ontario communities and supported the development of the Blue Box programme. Pollution Probe has published several books, including Profit from Pollution Prevention, The Green Consumer Guide (of which more than 225,000 copies were sold across Canada) and Additive Alert. Since the 1990s, Pollution Probe has focused its programmes on issues related to air pollution, water pollution, climate change and human health, including a major programme to remove human sources of mercury from the environment. Pollution Probe’s scope has also expanded to new concerns, including the unique risks that environmental contaminants pose to children, the health risks related to exposures within indoor environments, and the development of innovative tools for promoting responsible environmental behaviour. Since 1993, as part of our ongoing commitment to improving air quality, Pollution Probe has held an annual Clean Air Campaign during the month of June to raise awareness of the inter-relationships among vehicle emissions, smog, climate change and human respiratory problems. The Clean Air Campaign helped the Ontario Ministry of the Environment develop a mandatory vehicle emissions testing programme, called Drive Clean. Pollution Probe offers innovative and practical solutions to environmental issues pertaining to air and water pollution. In defining environmental problems and advocating practical solutions, we draw upon sound science and technology, mobilize scientists and other experts, and build partnerships with industry, governments and communities. 1 February 2005 Pollution Probe is pleased to publish this in-depth look at options for designing a vehicle fuel efficiency standard that will effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Canada. We believe Canada can join leading regions and countries, such as the European Union, Japan, Australia and China, as well as leading states, such as California and the seven Northeastern states (among others), that are either implementing or calling for the introduction of new greenhouse gas/fuel efficiency standards for cars and light trucks. With the coming into force of the Kyoto Protocol, Canada is legally committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by six per cent below 1990 levels by the first Kyoto Commitment Period of 2008–2012. The Climate Change Plan for Canada (2002) contains a commitment to improve fuel efficiency in new cars and light vehicles by 25 per cent by 2010, with the expectation that this would result in a reduction of 5.2 megatonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions. This reduction is badly needed as emissions of greenhouse gases in Canada are still increasing, despite the signing and ratification by Canada of both the Rio Declaration (1992) and the Kyoto Protocol (1997), which committed Canada to controlling its emissions. Public support for fuel efficient vehicles is a matter of much debate. Polls, such as a recent Harris Interactive Poll in the U.S. and a Canadian poll commissioned by the David Suzuki Foundation, show that consumers are considering purchasing or leasing more fuel efficient vehicles (Harris), or that Canadians want the federal government to follow California’s leadership to set new greenhouse gas reducing/fuel efficiency standards for new vehicles (Suzuki). Auto manufacturers maintain that they just sell consumers the vehicles they want, and that consumers don’t value fuel efficiency as highly as luxury features and safety. Pollution Probe believes the public will increasingly demand fuel efficiency and that meeting this demand will become a competitive advantage for progressive auto manufacturers in the very near future. Canada cannot afford to fall behind, given the importance of the auto sector to the Canadian economy and jobs. Our highly skilled workforce is clearly up to the task of making this transition, but it won’t happen on its own. A modern, effective greenhouse gas/fuel efficiency standard for new vehicles is clearly needed. This report demonstrates the technological achievability of a standard, and it outlines several options for designing a standard that can work for Canada. The time to start work on this standard is now. K. B. Ogilvie Executive Director 2 Ackowledgements Sponsors Pollution Probe expresses its sincere appreciation to the main sponsors of this report on Greenhouse Gas Emissions And Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standards For Canada. Their generous contributions enabled Pollution Probe to research and write the report, conduct a workshop on Structuring an Effective Fuel Efficiency/Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standard for Light-Duty Motor Vehicles in Canada on January 25th, 2005, and will allow Pollution Probe to continue working over the next year on the establishment of an new standard and complementary policy measures that will lead to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from light vehicles. The main sponsors are: The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation The Oak Foundation In addition, Pollution Probe expresses its appreciation to Natural Resources Canada for its contribution towards the expert review process for the report, which included both individual reviews and comments from the January 25th, 2005 workshop. Pollution Probe also expresses its appreciation to the Energy Foundation for its assistance with this project. Reviewers Pollution Probe extends its special thanks to the many people and organizations that reviewed the report and provided comments and to the participants at the January 25th, 2005 workshop, whose presentations and discussions contributed to this report. In many cases, the comments were incorporated directly into the text. In other cases, they appear in text boxes denoted Reviewer’s Commentary. Pollution Probe is solely responsible for the contents of this publication. This report was researched and written for Pollution Probe by Bob Oliver, P.Eng. The main reviewers and editors were Ken Ogilvie and Mary Pattenden. Layout was done by Krista Friesen at Pollution Probe. Contact Information: Bob Oliver Mary Pattenden Project Manager Climate Change Programme Director Pollution Probe Pollution Probe (416) 926-1907 x237 (416) 926-1907 x243 [email protected] [email protected] 3 Table of Contents Reading Guide.................................................................................................................6 Executive Summary........................................................................................................7 SECTION I: BACKGROUND REPORT Chapter 1: The Automobile in North America — A Canadian Perspective..............12 1.1 Introduction ...............................................................................................................13 1.2 The Automotive Industry in Canada..........................................................................17 1.3 Automobiles and Climate Change.............................................................................28 Chapter 2: Automobile Fuel Efficiency Standards in the United States and Canada ...........................................................................................................................29 2.1 Cafe Standards in the U.S. .......................................................................................30 2.2 CAFC Standards in Canada......................................................................................41 2.3 Complying with CAFÉ and CAFA Standards — A Hypothetical Case ......................45 Chapter 3: How Automobile Technology Was Made Cleaner and More Efficient...48 3.1 A Primer on Energy Use in the Modern Automobile .................................................49 3.2 Fuel Efficiency and Automotive Technology Trends Under CAFE and CAFC..........67 Chapter 4: Motor Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standards — Effectiveness, Issues and Debate ............................................................................................................................91 4.1 CAFE in the U.S. — Effectiveness, Issues and Debate............................................92 4.2 CAFC in Canada — Effectiveness, Issues and Debate ..........................................132 Chapter 5: Actions Underway to Improve Automobile Fuel Efficiency and Emissions ....................................................................................................................136 5.1 International Activity................................................................................................138 5.2 Activity in the United States ....................................................................................154 5.3 Activity in Canada ...................................................................................................172 Chapter 6: California’s Regulations FOR Vehicle Emissions — Air Pollution and Climate Change...........................................................................................................182
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