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Part II : Review of Motor Vehicle Market and Consumer Expenditures On . HE T NO. D0T-TSC-NHTSA-80-2.il DOT-HS -805 264 1 8.5 .434 no MARKET ANALYSIS AND CONSUMER IMPACTS DOT- TSC- SOURCE DOCUMENT NHTSA- 80-3 . II Part 1 1 Review of Motor Vehicle Market and Consumer Expenditures on Motor Vehicle Transportation K.H. Schaeffer Olive Lesueur Leslie Hollingsworth Joseph Y arm us Leon Rudman David Westenberg U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Research and Special Programs Administration Transportation Systems Center Cambridge MA 02142 ,-c OF TJ}4 . DOCUMENT IS AVAILABLE TO THE PUBLIC THROUGH THE NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION SERVICE, SPRINGFIELD, VIRGINIA 22161 Prepared for U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Office of Research and Development Washington DC 20590 . NOTICE This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The United States Govern- ment assumes no liability for its contents or use thereof NOTICE The United States Government does not endorse pro- ducts or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturer's names appear herein solely because they are con- sidered essential to the object of this report. NOTICE The views and conclusions contained in the document are those of the author(s) and should not be inter- preted as necessarily representing the official policies or opinions, either expressed or implied, of the Department of Transportation. *6s \S» Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient’s Cotalog No. - 8 rt DOT-HS 05 264 5. 4 . Title ond Subtitle MARKET ANALYSIS AND CONSUMER Report Dote 1980 IMPACTS SOURCE DOCUMENT - Part II Review of December Motor Vehicle Market and Consumer Expenditures 6. Performing. Orgoni zotion Code on Motor Vehicle Transportation. 8. Performing Orgonizotion Report No. 7. Authors) K.H. Schaeffer, Olive Lesueur,* DOT-TSC-NHTSA-80-2.il 9. Performing Orgonizotion Nome ond Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) U.S. Department of Transportation HS163/R1410 Research and Special Programs Administration 11. Controct or Grant No. Transportation Systems Center Cambridge MA 02142 13. Type of Report and Period Covered 12. Sponsoring Agency Name ond Address Final Report U.S. Department of Transportation National16. Highway Traffic Safety Administration Office of Research and Development 14. Sponsoring Agency Cod« Washington DC 20590 15. Supplementary Notes * Leslie Hollingsworth, Joseph Yarmus,Leon Rudman,and David Westenberg Energy Demand Analysis Branch Abstroct This source document on motor vehicle market analysis and con- sumer impacts consists of three parts. Part I is an integrated overview of the motor vehicle market in the late 1970’s, with sections on the structure of the market, motor vehicle trends, consumer trends, and market outlook. Part II consists of studies and review on: motor vehicle sales trends; motor vehicle fleet life and fleet composition; car buying patterns of the business market; impact of downsizing on automotive preference of new car buyers; demand for light trucks, recreational vehicles, used 17.cars, and station wagons; and consumer18. expenditures for private motor vehicle transportation. Part III consists of studies and reviews on: consumer awareness of fuel efficiency issues; consumer acceptance of fuel efficient vehicles; car size choices; passenger car choices; truck-cho ices; and mo tor vehicle usage trends. 19. 20. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION m library igffl'3gaaragajiaa*aT?*^/.a^rt- .-armmr Key Words Distribution Statement PUBLIC Marketing, Fuel Economy, DOCUMENT IS AVAILABLE TO THE Motor Vehicles THROUGH THE NATIONAL TECHNICAL I I SP R I NG F E L D, INFORMATION SE R V CE , VIRGINIA 22161 Security Classif. (of this report) Security Classif. (of this page) 21« No. of P oges 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 306 Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed poge authorized PREFACE This report, DOT-TSC-NHTSA-80-2.il "Market Analysis and Con- sumer Impacts Source Document," summarizes the studies and reviews on the motor vehicle market of the 1970’ s which TSC has performed during the past two years as part of its support to the NHTSA Auto- motive Fuel Economy Program. The source document is presented in three parts. Part I is an integrated overview of the motor vehicle market in the late 1970' s. Part II is a series of reviews of the motor vehicle market and consumer expenditures on motor vehicle transportation. Part III is a review of behavioral and attitudinal studies on the consumers of motor vehicle transportation. This document is deliverable under PPA HS-163, "Support for Research and Analysis in Auto Fuel Economy and Related Areas." 1 5 ! s K. 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MOTOR VEHICLE SALES AND MARKET TRENDS... 1-1 1.1 Introduction 1-1 1.2 Major Findings 1-1 1 . 3 Sales 1-1 1.4 Market Share 1-11 1.5 References for Section 1 1-21 2. FLEET LIFE AND FLEET COMPOSITION ANALYSIS 2-1 2.1 Introduction 2-1 2.2 Summary of AFER- P.elat ed Preliminary Findings 2-3 2 . 3 Fleet Life 2-4 * 2.3.1 Methodology 2-4 2.3.2 Applicability of Life Table Analysis to Motor Vehicle Survival In the Fleet 2-5 2.3.3 Contructing Life Tables for Motor Vehicles 2-10 2.3.4 Preliminary Fleet Life Analysis Results 2-14 2.4 Fleet Composition Analysis 2-40 2.4.1 Significance of Fleet Composition Analysis to the AFER Program 2-40 2.4.2 Preliminary Results of Fleet Composition Analysis... 2-41 2.5 References for Section 2 2-48 APPENDIX 2A - COMPUTING EXPECTED LIFE 2A-1 3. BUSINESS CAR BUYING PATTERNS 3-1 3.1 Introduction 3-1 3.2 Major Findings 3-1 3.3 Business Car Buying Trends through 1976 3-2 v CONTENTS (Cont.) Section Page 3.3.1 Business Car Population and New Car Population Trends 3-3 3.3.2 Business Fleet Car Trends 3-7 3.3.3 Size Composition Trends of Large Corporate Fleets 3-11 3.4 Business and Fleet Car Trends After 1976 3-15 3.5 References for Section 3 and Appendix 3A 3-27 APPENDIX 3A - NON- CORPORATE FLEET COMPOSITION TRENDS 3A-1 4. DOWNSIZING OF THE 1977 GM STANDARD CAR 4-1 4.1 Introduction 4-1 4.2 Major Findings 4-1 4.3 Sales of Downsized GM Full-Sized Cars 4-2 4.3.1 General 4-2 4.3.2 Early Model Buyer Attitudes and , Behavior 4-2 4.4 Summary of Multivariate Analysis 4-4 4.4.1 1977 Chevrolet (Downsized) vs. 1977 Ford, 1977 Plymouth (Not Downsized)... 4-4 4.4.2 1977 Buick, Oldsmobile, Pontiac, Cadillac (Downsized) vs. 1977 Mercury, Dodge, Chrysler, Lincoln Continental (Not Downsized) 4-11 4.4.3 1977 Chevrolet (Downsized) vs. 1976 Chevrolet (Not Downsized) 4-15 4.4.4 1977 vs. 1976 Buick, Oldsmobile, Pontiac, and Cadillac 4-18 4.4.5 Variables That Distinguish 1977 GM Make/Series Loyals from Non- Loyals . 4-20 4.5 Summary of Analysis Results 4-23 5. LIGHT TRUCK DEMAND 5-1 5.1 Introduction 5-1 5.2 Major Findings 5-1 5. 3 Light Truck Sales As Seen in Popular Periodicals and Trade Journals 5-2 vi CONTENTS (Cont.) Section Page 5.3.1 Dominant Themes 5-4 5.3.2 Views of Auto Company Marketers. 5-30 5.3.3 References for Section 5.3 5-34 5.4 Comparative Costs of Light Trucks and Cars... 5-36 5.4.1 Introduction 5-36 5.4.2 Cost Results 5-36 5.4.3 Calculation of Cost Components 5-44 5.4.4 Further Comments 5-49 5.4.5 References for Section 5.4 5-52 5.5 Light Truck Ownership 5-53 5.6 Trends in Light Truck Sales in the 1970’s.... 5-60 6. RECREATIONAL VEHICLE DEMAND 6-1 6.1 Introduction 6-1 6.2 Major Findings 6-1 6.3 The Types of Recreational Vehicles 6-1 6.3.1 Travel Trailer 6-2 6.3.2 Truck Camper 6-2 6.3.3 Fold-Down Camping Trailer 6-2 6.3.4 Motor Home 6-2 6.4 Recreational Vehicle Shipments 6-2 6.4.1 Travel Trailer Demand 6-5 6.4.2 Truck Camper Demand 6-5 6.4.3 Fold-Down Camping Trailer Demand 6-8 6.4.4 Motor Home Demand 6-8 6.5 References for Section 6 5-11 7.
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