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TOP PICKS Report INDEPENDENT RESEARCH Top Picks 15th October 2013 Top Picks 4Q 2013 Top Picks ACCOR BUY EUR32 This is the fourth volume of our ‘Top Picks’ for 2013. As with those Last Price EUR32.89 Market Cap. EUR7,482m previously published, this list is not intended to be a model portfolio but ADIDAS GROUP BUY EUR93 Last Price EUR81.58 Market Cap. EUR17,067m simply a pure stock-picking exercise in our coverage universe. However ALTRAN TECHNOLOGIES BUY EUR7.3 it reflects a bias towards themes that we believe fit perfectly with the Last Price EUR6.27 Market Cap. EUR1,095m current macro and financial environment. FRESENIUS SE BUY EUR112 Emerging markets currencies have not been the right place to be since Fed Last Price EUR91.18 Market Cap. EUR13,188m LVMH BUY EUR165 chief Ben Bernanke signalled in May that the central bank was considering Last Price EUR144.8 Market Cap. EUR73,563m scaling back the $85 billion in bonds they are buying each month. As such, QIAGEN BUY EUR17 we have adopted a more cautious stance on EMs FX exposure and a Last Price EUR15.3 Market Cap. EUR3,667m greater exposure to Europe showing signs of stabilisation: Accor, Altran, SAINT GOBAIN BUY EUR40 Last Price EUR37.44 Market Cap. EUR20,709m Fresenius SE, Saint Gobain, Veolia, Axa & Allianz. SAP BUY EUR69 The Fed’s unconventional monetary policy is becoming more uncertain Last Price EUR53.8 Market Cap. EUR66,118m and although Janet Yellen should preserve the Fed’s dovish bias, current SODEXO BUY EUR75 Last Price EUR69.89 Market Cap. EUR10,981m QE cannot be maintained for ever. The calendar is everything but certain, VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT BUY EUR15 another reason to hedge potential impacts with stocks based on self- Last Price EUR13.715 Market Cap. EUR7, 528m helped investment cases: Accor, Altran, Fresenius SE, Qiagen, Saint AXA BUY EUR18.5 Gobain, Veolia. Last Price EUR18.32 Market Cap. EUR43,847m ALLIANZ BUY EUR140 The Growth segment is also represented but only by stocks that deserve a Last Price EUR120 Market Cap. EUR54,713m significant re-rating versus peers and/or that, for very specific reasons, should experience higher organic growth going forward: adidas, SAP, Sodexo, Qiagen. This document is a compilation of the notes written for the update of our Top Picks list 112.000 110.000 108.000 106.000 104.000 102.000 100.000 Top Picks 8.8% STOXX 600 7.7% STOXX 50 5.6% Q3 2013 98.000 Perf Perf Perf Perf Perf Q1 13 Q2 13 H1 13 Q3 13 9M 13 Top Picks (EUR) 5.40% -1.10% 4.24% 8.81% 13.43% STOXX EUROPE 600 5.04% -2.98% 1.91% 7.69% 9.75% STOXX EUROPE 50 4.66% -3.46% 1.04% 5.62% 6.72% r r Top Picks Table of contents Our top picks for 4Q 2013 are ................................................................................................................... 3 Top picks for 3Q 2013 performances ...................................................................................................... 4 Luxury & Consumer Goods : Towards more favourable trends by the end of 2013 // Top Picks: LVMH and adidas Group ... 5 Insurance : Q4 2013 Top Picks: back to the fundamentals ........................................................................................ 7 Business Services : Top Picks Q4 2013: Sodexo retained, Bureau Veritas exited ................................................................ 8 Healthcare : Top Picks Q4 2013 – High selectivity limits choices to two : Qiagen and Fresenius SE................ 9 Hotels : Top pick: We are maintaining Accor ....................................................................................................... 10 IT Software & Services : Q3 2013 review, prospects for the rest of 2013 and 2014, and Top Picks: SAP and Altran ......... 11 Utilities : Q3 2013 review, prospects for the rest of 2013, and Top Picks : Veolia Env. remains ................. 12 Construction & Materials : TOP Picks Q4 2013 : Saint-Gobain remains our favourite ................................................................. 13 Bryan Garnier stock rating system .............................................................................................. 15 2 Top Picks Our top picks for 4Q 2013 are Changes : + LVMH Fig. 1: Valuation ratios: 4Q 2013 Top Picks + AXA + ALLIANZ Market Cap. EV/EBIT(x) PER (x) RDT (%) + FRESENIUS SE (EUR) 2013e 2014e 2013e 2014e 2013e 2014e ACCOR 7 203 8.9 8.4 23.8 19.9 2.4% 2.8% ADIDAS 16 873 10.7 8.9 20.0 16.6 2.0% 2.4% - RICHEMONT ALTRAN TECHNOLOGIES 1 059 7.5 5.4 12.1 9.6 1.3% 2.0% - SAFILO - SCOR FRESENIUS SE 15 981 7.2 6.6 15.8 14.1 1.3% 1.5% - SWISS RE LVMH 74 122 11.4 10.0 20.9 18.4 2.2% 2.5% - BUREAU VERITAS QIAGEN 3 701 12.5 11.2 18.7 16.7 0.0% 0.0% - SANOFI (out 1st Aug.) SAINT GOBAIN 21 077 7.5 6.4 18.4 13.3 3.3% 3.5% - ACTELION SAP 65 725 11.4 9.8 16.2 14.7 1.7% 2.1% - CAPGEMINI SODEXO 10 781 9.1 8.3 21.4 18.7 2.3% 2.6% - PENNON - HOLCIM VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT 7 456 9.4 8.4 44.2 24.4 5.2% 5.2% AXA 54 554 - - 9.3 9.2 4.3% 4.4% ALLIANZ 43 715 - - 9.0 8.4 4.2% 4.5% Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests. Fig. 2: Dividend payments: 4Q 2013 Top Picks Top Picks Ex-Dividend date Amount LVMH 28/11/13 €1.24 Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests. Our Top Picks are updated and published every quarter. 3 Top Picks Top picks for 3Q 2013 performances 3Q 2013 perf. incl. Div. Euro Local Ccy Euro Local Ccy RICHEMONT N 8.2 7.2 9.33 8.2 ADIDAS (XET) -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 SAFILO GROUP -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 HOLCIM 'R' 4.5 3.6 4.5 4.5 SAINT GOBAIN 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.6 PENNON GROUP 9.6 7.0 12.58 7.1 VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 ACTELION 13.6 12.6 13.6 13.6 QIAGEN (XET) 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 SANOFI* (excl. from 1st Aug. ) 0.38 0.38 0.4 0.4 ACCOR 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 ALTRAN TECHNOLOGIES 12.0 12.0 13.63 13.6 SAP (XET) -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 SCOR SE 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 SWISS RE 6.9 6.0 6.9 6.9 CAP GEMINI 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 3Q 2013 Top picks average Perf. 8.81 8.40 9.20 8.80 STOXX EUROPE 600 7.7 7.7 8.20 STOXX EUROPE 50 5.6 5.6 6.28 Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests. 4 Top Picks Luxury & Consumer Goods : Towards more favourable trends by the end of 2013 // Top Picks: LVMH and adidas Group LOOKING BACK ON Q3 2013 1 M 3 M 6 M 31/12/12 In Q3, our Luxury goods stocks sample, with an absolute 10% increase, has slightly outperformed Pers & H/H Gds 0.9% 2.0% 0.0% 10.3% the DJ Stoxx (+1.3%). The best-performing stock in Q3 was Tod’s with a 25% increase, followed by DJ Stoxx 600 2.6% 8.2% 4.5% 11.1% Burberry (+21%). On the other hand, Kering (+4%) and Ferragamo (+6%) were the worst performers. *Stoxx Sector Indices While LVMH gained around 15%, Richemont won almost 10%. Our Consumer goods and HPC samples underperformed the DJ Stoxx by respectively 1% and 6%, as they have been more affected Companies covered ADIDAS BUY EUR93 by the concerns on the emerging countries economic slowdown. Over the last three months, L’Oréal’s share price remained stable (+21% since beginning of the year) vs. -2.5% for Beiersdorf, Last Price EUR80.41 Market Cap. EUR16,823m whilst adidas Group lost 4.5% during the period following its profit-warning at end-September. BEIERSDORF SELL EUR65 Last Price EUR67.972 Market Cap. EUR15,416m Mixed news from the macro side. US and Japanese data were quite reassuring despite a relative BIC NEUTRAL EUR91 slowdown in the US recently: the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence index was still well- oriented in September (79.7) but a bit lower than in August (81.8) and July (81). The slowdown is Last Price EUR85.18 Market Cap. EUR4,118m also illustrated by the US retail sales which were up 4.7% in August vs. +5.7% in July. Clearly the CHRISTIAN DIOR BUY EUR145 recent “US shutdown” and the uncertainties about the US debt level are a source of concern in the Last Price EUR143.85 Market Cap. EUR26,141m short term and could weigh on US consumer spending. Japan seems better oriented. The PMI index ESSILOR BUY EUR98 reached 52.5 in August, its highest level since the Fukushima crisis in 2011. Retail sales increased Last Price EUR77.8 Market Cap. EUR16,764m 1.1%, highlighting a significant improvement vs. July (-0.3%). In H1 13, our luxury groups have grown GROUPE SEB BUY EUR70 by 10% organically in Japan on average, which is the best performance in 4 years. This positive Last Price EUR65.05 Market Cap. EUR3,263m environment is very helpful for the luxury brands (LV, Gucci, Cartier, Tod’s for the Autumn/Winter HERMES Intl NEUTRAL EUR205 13 collection), which are or have implemented price increases to offset (thanks also to the hedging Last Price EUR265.7 Market Cap. EUR28,050m policy) the negative impact of the JPY fall on profitability. We assume that these price increases will L'OREAL BUY EUR147 be well accepted by the local clientele. Indeed, after some price increases passed in H1, some Last Price EUR125.7 Market Cap.
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