Asia Property Property

28 September 2009 Periodical

Company Company Around the Houses HK Property 09/25/2009 Company Price 1-d % Rating Cheung Kong 97.05 -1.37 Hold /China Property Hongkong Land 4.36 5.31 Sell Hang Lung 27.15 0.74 Sell Henderson 49.75 -0.90 Hold New World Dev 16.38 1.49 Buy Daily SHKP 113.70 1.43 Hold Sino Land 14.00 0.00 Sell Great Eagle 18.94 1.50 Buy Kerry Properties 39.85 -2.09 Hold

Published Research China Property-1 09/25/2009 Company Price 1-d % Rating COLI 16.90 2.05 Hold China Property: Monthly market intelligence for August 2009 China - B 9.78 0.82 Hold - Danny Bao, CFA; Ling Xu R&F 13.70 1.18 Hold CR Land 17.04 0.59 Sell Greentown 11.12 1.09 Hold News highlights 4.64 1.31 Hold Zhong An 3.25 1.56 Hold Forte 2.31 -1.70 Sell 75 primary units sold in Hong Kong during the past weekend SRE 0.80 1.27 Buy Global Markets Research Primary sales during the past weekend increased to 75 units (from 37 in the previous week). Cheung Kong sold 50 units of Celestial Heights Phase 2 at an China Property-2 09/25/2009 ASP of HK$12,500psf while New World Development sold nine units of Emerald Company Price 1-d % Rating Green in Yuen Long. Sino Land sold six units of The Palazzo and three units of RREEF CCT 2.85 0.00 Hold 2.88 -0.69 Hold Lake Silver over the last weekend. (Wenweipo, Oriental Daily, HK Economic 9.50 0.11 Sell Times) 13.86 1.32 NA Yanlord 2.45 1.24 NA Celestial Heights Phase 2 raises HK$2.7bn; launch additional units Hopson 13.50 0.75 NA Luxury property market remains strong as 130 units of Cheung Kong’s (0001.HK) Beijing North Star 2.75 0.00 NA Celestial Heights Phase 2 in Ho Man Tin were sold within seven days of its launch. Beijing Capital Land 2.88 1.05 NA

This number already exceeds their target sales for the year by 30%. The total Index Performance 09/25/2009 sales proceeds from the project have reached HK$2.7bn. (Oriental Daily) Index 1-w % 1-m % 3-m % Ricacorp: September registrations likely to reach 15,000 units HSI Index -2.77 2.88 15.04 HSCEI Index -4.42 3.45 12.01 According to the HK Land Registry department, 11,715 property transactions were HSP Index -2.09 0.76 8.78 registered in the first 24 days of September. Ricacorp properties expects that the number of registrations to reach up to 15,000 for the full month, with an overall Research Team transaction value of up to HK$6.8bn, which would be a 22-month high. (HK Economic Times) Danny Bao, CFA Research Analyst The Palazzo: Limited units launched, the cheapest one at HK$6.27m (+86) 21 3896 2839 [email protected] Sino Land is now looking to take advantage of the national holidays beginning on 1st October to sell The Palazzo. Among the five units recently re-launched for sale Ken Yeung, CFA is a 717sqf two-bedroom flat priced at HK$6.28m, i.e. at HK$8,755psf. (Headline Research Analyst Daily) (+852) 2203 6163 [email protected] buys 36 pieces of land in Ningbo Hopson Development has spent approximately RMB1.37bn to acquire the land Ling Xu use rights of 36 pieces of land in Bay New Zone, Cixi, Ningbo, Zhejiang Research Analyst Province. (China Knowledge) (+86) 21 3896 2834 [email protected] Beijing Capital Land's contracted sales up 269% in Jan-Aug Beijing Capital Land's contracted sales surged 269% yoy to RMB7.7bn in Aug 09. The figure represents 96% of its target of RMB8bn for 2009. The company’s Aug 09 contracted sales area was 750,000sqm, up 390% yoy. (China Knowledge) China Merchants Property, Wharf buy land in Tianjin China Merchants Property (000024.SZ) and Wharf Holdings (0004.HK) have jointly won the bid for a piece of mixed-use land in Hedong District, Tianjin, for RMB641m or RMB5,325psqm of potential floor area. The parcel has a potential GFA of 120,190sqm. (China Knowledge)

Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE

LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009 28 September 2009 Property Around the Houses

Published Research

China Property Monthly market intelligence for August 2009 - Danny Bao, CFA; Ling Xu

Residential GFA sales declined 0.2% MoM while ASP increased 1.8% MoM in August. Tier-II cities with lower ASP generally outperformed large cities in volume. The first three weeks’ data for September suggests volumes are unlikely to exceed the June level. Supply shortage in major cities is likely to continue for the next few months. Meanwhile, new construction activity improved in August after a brief decline in July. We expect policies to focus on tighter second mortgage requirements, LAT settlement, and prevention of land hoarding.

For more information, please click on the link for the full PDF. If you have any trouble viewing the link, copy and paste the link in a browser. http://pull.tmr3.com/p/1246-D1B3/71302501/0900b8c0817e2361.pdf

News highlights

75 primary units sold in Hong Kong during the past weekend Primary sales during the past weekend increased to 75 units (from 37 units in the previous week). Cheung Kong led the table by selling 50 units of its Ho Man Tin luxury project – Celestial Heights Phase 2 – in the previous weekend at an ASP of HK$12,500psf. Cheung Kong sold an accumulated 130 units (or 30% of total 439 units) since its launch just over a week ago, realising approximately HK$2.7bn. Meanwhile, New World Development sold nine units of Emerald Green in Yuen Long . Sino Land sold six units of The Palazzo and three units of Lake Silver over the past weekend. In the secondary market, transaction volume in 10 major Hong Kong private estates, according to Midland data, dropped 18% WoW. (Wenweipo, Oriental Daily, HK Economic Times)

Figure 1: Summary of weekend primary sales Project Developer Approx units sold Celestial Heights Cheung Kong 50 Emerald Green New World Dev 9 The Palazzo Sino Land/MTRC 6 Lake Silver Sino Land/MTRC 3 Others 7 Total 75 Source: Wenweipo, Oriental Daily, HK Economic Times, Deutsche Bank

Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 28 September 2009 Property Around the Houses

Celestial Heights Phase 2 raises HK$2.7bn; launch additional units Sep 28 – The luxury property market remains strong in Hong Kong as Cheung Kong (0001.HK) sold 130 units of Celestrial Heights Phase 2 in Ho Man Tin within seven days of its launch. This already exceeds its target sales for the year by 30%. The total sales proceeds from the project have reached HK$2.7bn. Considering the overwhelming response, the developer has decided to raise the target sales for the year to 150 units and will launch additional units to meet the market demand. Cheung Kong’s property investment director Wong See-chung says that the average transaction price per unit is around HK$20m, while the ASP is around HK$12,500psf. He said the sales exceeded their expectation and, hence, they have now raised their target sales to 150 units for the year, and will launch additional units this week. The company is still considering the pricing of the additional units. (Oriental Daily)

Ricacorp: September registrations likely to reach 15,000 units Sep 28 – According to the HK Land Registry department, 11,715 property transactions were registered in the first 24 days of September (the figures mainly reflect the property market in August). Ricacorp Properties expects that the number of registrations to reach up to 15,000 for the full month, with an overall transaction value of up to HK$6.8bn, which would be a 22-month high. (HK Economic Times)

The Palazzo at HK$6.27m up, launches limited units Sep 26 – Sino Land’s (0083.HK) development project in Fo Tan, The Palazzo, has around 200 remaining primary units for sale. The developer is now looking to take advantage of the national holidays beginning on 1st October to sell the project. Among the five units recently re-launched for sale is a 717sqf two-bedroom flat priced at HK$6.28m, i.e. at HK$8,755psf. Sino Land’s sales and marketing manager Salenda Lau said that they will arrange site visits for 30-40 clients from Mainland China on 4th October. (Headline Daily)

Hopson Development buys 36 pieces of land in Ningbo Sep 25 – Hopson Development has spent approximately RMB1.37bn to acquire the land use rights of 36 pieces of land in Hangzhou Bay New Zone, Cixi, Ningbo, Zhejiang Province. The 36 pieces of land, which have a combined land area of 1.53m square meters, are expected to be used for high-end residential, commercial and hotel development. (China Knowledge)

Beijing Capital Land's contracted sales up 269% in Jan-Aug Sep 25 – Beijing Capital Land (2868.HK), which is engaged in real estate development and hotel operations, said that its contracted sales surged 269% year- on-year to RMB7.7bn in the first eight months of the year. The figure represents 96% of its target of RMB8bn for 2009. Contracted sales area during the same period was 750,000sqm, 390% more than in the same period of the last year. (China Knowledge)

China Merchants Property, Wharf buy land in Tianjin Sep 25 – China Merchants Property Development (000024.SZ) and Hong Kong- based Wharf Holdings (0004.HK) have jointly won the bid for a piece of mixed-use land in Hedong District, Tianjin, for RMB641m or RMB5,325 psm of potential floor area. The parcel, which covers a land area of 47,525sqm and has a potential floor area of 120,190sqm, will have a floor area ratio of 2.53. (China Knowledge)

Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 3 28 September 2009 Property Around the Houses

Other market news

Ying Li International: Buys Land in China for CNY851.6m Sep 25 – Ying Li International Real Estate (5DM.SG) said Friday that it acquired a development site in China through a government land auction for CNY851.6m. The 28,226sqm site, located in 's Yuzhong District, will be developed into an integrated development project with high-end residential, hospitality and "high- grade" retail components. The project is expected to be completed by 30 June 2013, and the company said it expects to start the presale of the project's residential units as early as 2010. (Dow Jones)

Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 28 September 2009 Property Around the Houses

Figure 2: China comp sheet Mkt Cap 25-Sep Cur Prem./ Fwd Prem./ PE(x) PB(x) Company Ticker Rating Ccy (US$m) Price 09NAV (Dis) (%) 10NAV (Dis) (%) FY09F FY10F FY09F FY10F China Overseas* 688 HK Hold HK$ 17,806 16.90 13.5 25% 15.0 13% 21.4 17.6 3.4 2.9 China Vanke - B* 200002 CH Hold HK$ 13,875 9.78 9.4 4% 10.1 -3% 16.9 14.6 2.5 2.2 600048 CH NR RMB 12,012 23.30 na na na na 22.7 16.2 3.3 2.8 * 1109 HK Sell HK$ 11,044 17.04 16.3 5% 17.1 0% 30.1 27.1 2.3 2.1 Country Garden* 2007 HK Hold HK$ 6,057 2.88 4.0 -28% 4.4 -35% 21.3 19.5 1.6 1.5 Shimao Property 813 HK NR HK$ 5,809 13.86 na na na na 13.7 12.7 1.9 1.7 Guangzhou R&F* 2777 HK Hold HK$ 5,696 13.70 18.0 -24% 19.8 -31% 15.3 13.9 2.4 2.1 Sino Ocean Land 3377 HK NR HK$ 4,433 7.31 na na na na 21.3 14.0 1.6 1.5 Agile Property* 3383 HK Sell HK$ 4,396 9.50 10.9 -13% 12.9 -26% 14.4 12.0 2.2 1.9 Yanlord Land YLLG SP NR SG$ 3,361 2.45 na na na na 16.4 13.9 2.0 1.8 SOHO China 410 HK NR HK$ 2,831 4.23 na na na na 12.8 6.5 1.3 1.1 Hopson 754 HK NR HK$ 2,774 13.50 na na na na 8.9 6.7 0.9 0.8 Shui On Land* 272 HK Hold HK$ 2,756 4.64 7.3 -36% 8.0 -42% 11.4 10.8 0.9 0.9 Franshion Properties* 817 HK Hold HK$ 2,537 2.26 3.3 -32% 3.5 -35% 17.4 14.1 1.6 1.4 * 3900 HK Hold HK$ 2,206 11.12 12.7 -12% 14.0 -20% 19.2 17.8 1.6 1.5 New World China 917 HK NR HK$ 1,939 3.92 na na na na 18.6 13.1 0.5 0.5 Guangzhou Investment 123 HK NR HK$ 1,223 1.33 na na na na 7.3 na na na Beijing North Star 588 HK NR HK$ 1,195 2.75 na na na na 12.2 13.1 0.8 0.7 Zhong An Real Estate* 672 HK Hold HK$ 815 3.25 5.7 -43% 6.3 -48% 15.9 12.4 1.3 1.2 Shanghai Forte* 2337 HK Sell HK$ 754 2.31 4.7 -51% 5.1 -55% 14.5 12.7 0.9 0.9 Beijing Capital Land 2868 HK NR HK$ 754 2.88 na na na na 10.3 7.7 1.1 0.9 SPG Land 337 HK NR HK$ 552 4.15 na na na na 8.3 5.8 0.9 0.9 SRE Group* 1207 HK Buy HK$ 372 0.80 4.5 -82% 5.0 -84% 5.0 4.7 0.3 0.3 RREEF CCT* 625 HK Hold HK$ 171 2.85 6.4 -55% 7.0 -60% 15.0 15.0 0.5 0.5 China -26% -33% 15.4 13.1 1.6 1.4 Source: Deutsche Bank consensus, Bloomberg-BST estimates, Datastream, Company data, Bloomberg, *indicates companies covered by DB, for others, we use consensus estimates

Figure 3: HK comp sheet Mkt Cap 25-Sep Cur Prem./ Fwd Prem./ PE(x) PB(x) Company Ticker Rating Ccy (US$m) Price 09NAV (Dis) (%) 10NAV (Dis) (%) FY09F FY10F FY09F FY10F SHKP 16 HK Hold HK$ 37,615 113.70 126.0 -10% 132.6 -14% 23.5 21.1 1.3 1.3 Cheung Kong 1 HK Hold HK$ 29,003 97.05 109.1 -11% 110.4 -12% 14.9 16.4 0.9 0.9 Hang Lung Properties 101 HK Sell HK$ 14,576 27.25 22.4 22% 22.5 21% 47.8 32.4 1.7 1.6 Henderson Land 12 HK Hold HK$ 13,780 49.75 63.1 -21% 65.5 -24% 20.9 24.5 0.9 0.9 Hongkong Land HKL SP Sell US$ 9,807 4.36 4.7 -7% 5.0 -13% 13.6 15.0 0.8 0.8 Sino Land 83 HK Sell HK$ 8,732 14.00 14.5 -3% 15.1 -7% 18.9 21.2 1.1 1.1 New World Dev 17 HK Buy HK$ 7,943 16.38 27.8 -41% 29.5 -44% 23.1 13.9 0.8 0.8 Kerry Properties 683 HK Hold HK$ 7,341 39.85 46.2 -14% 48.5 -18% 18.4 23.4 1.2 1.2 Chinese Estates 127 HK Hold HK$ 3,535 13.70 21.1 -35% 21.9 -37% 27.4 14.3 0.8 0.8 Hysan Dev 14 HK Buy HK$ 2,633 19.60 34.5 -43% 35.4 -45% 17.7 18.1 0.6 0.6 Great Eagle 41 HK Buy HK$ 1,520 18.94 32.6 -42% 33.4 -43% 10.0 11.5 0.6 0.6 HK -19% -22% 21.5 19.3 1.0 1.0 Source: Deutsche Bank, Datastream, Company data, Bloomberg Note: Henderson Land’s FY09F PE ratio is based on 18 months EPS forecast, due to a change in financial year-end date.

Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 5 28 September 2009 Property Around the Houses Appendix 1

Important Disclosures Additional information available upon request

For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on a security mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr.

Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Danny Bao

Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share- 45% holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price 300 37% from current price to projected target price plus pro- 250 jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors 200 buy the stock. 150 18% Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share- holder return, we recommend that investors sell the 100 14% 16% 8% stock 50 Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months 0 out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend Buy Hold Sell either a Buy or Sell. Notes: Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship 1. Newly issued research recommendations and target prices always supersede previously published research. Asia-Pacific Universe 2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were: Buy: Expected total return (including dividends) of 10% or more over a 12-month period Hold: Expected total return (including dividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12-month period Sell: Expected total return (including dividends) of - 10% or worse over a 12-month period

Page 6 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 28 September 2009 Property Around the Houses

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