Systematic Country Diagnostic
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Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Report Number: 99383-SS REPUBLIC OF SOUTH SUDAN Public Disclosure Authorized SYSTEMATIC COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC October 5, 2015 Public Disclosure Authorized Country Department, Eastern Africa-3 (AFCE3) Africa Region Public Disclosure Authorized Abbreviations and Acronyms AES Alternative Education System IFMS Integrated Financial Management AfDB African Development Bank System ANC Ante-Natal Care IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on ANC African National Congress (South Development Africa’s Ruling Party) ITNs Insecticide Treated Nets Bpd Barrel per Day JICA Japan International Cooperation BSS Bank of South Sudan Agency CANS Civilian Administration for the LCs Letters of Credit New Sudan LICs Low Income Countries CCM Chama Cha Mapinduzi (Tanzania’s LQAS Lot Quality Assurance Sampling ruling party) MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund CCSS Coordinating Council for Southern M&E Monitoring and Evaluation Sudan MoPMI Ministry of Petroleum, Mining and CPF Country Partnership Framework Industry CAMP Comprehensive Agricultural NBFI Non-Bank Financial Institution Master Plan NBHS National Baseline Household CHWs Community Health Workers Survey COMESA Common Market for Eastern and NGO Non-Governmental Organization Southern Africa NTDs Neglected Tropical Diseases CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement ODA Official Development Assistance CPIA Country Policy and Institutional PFM Public Financial Management Assessment PRMA Petroleum Revenues Management CPI Consumer Price Index Act DfID UK Department for International QER Quality Enhancement Review Development SSA Sub-Saharan Africa DDR Disarmament, Demobilization and SPLA Sudan People’s Liberation Army Re-integration SPLM Sudan People’s Liberation DTIS Diagnostic Trade Integration Study Movement EAC East African Community SSCCSE Southern Sudan Centre for Census, EITI Extractive Industries Transparency Statistics and Evaluation Initiative SSEC South Sudan Electricity FAO Food and Agriculture Organization Corporation of the United Nations SHHS Sudan Household Health Survey GDP Gross Domestic Product SSHS Southern Sudan Household Survey GNI Gross National Income SSP South Sudanese Pound GER Gross Enrollment Rate SSR Security Sector Reform GESP General Education Strategic Plan SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic GoS Government of Sudan TA Technical Assistance HFS High Frequency Survey TTL Task Team Leader HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries UNDP United Nations Development ICT Information and Communication Program Technologies WDR World Development Report IDPs Internally Displaced Persons WFP World Food Program IFC International Finance Corporation WHO World Health Organization Regional Vice President Makhtar Diop Country Director Bella Bird Task Team Leaders Preeti Arora, Paolo Zacchia Acknowledgements This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) was led by Preeti Arora and Paolo Zacchia with a core team comprising of the task team leaders across the main operational global practices for the World Bank Group. The SCD was prepared under the guidance of Bella Bird and Sahr Kpundeh. Administrative support was provided by Yousra Abdelrahman and Santa Maria Aguti. The core team relied substantially on sector-specific expertise from across the World Bank Group’s units including the Global Practices (GPs) and Cross Cutting Solutions Areas (CCSAs), as well as partners and stakeholders in South Sudan, who have contributed to the preparation of this document in a collaborative manner. The table below identifies team members representing each of these units, GPs, and CCSAs, with specific knowledge of, and experience in, South Sudan who played an important role in providing expert input throughout the SCD process. We are very grateful for their generosity in providing us with substantive inputs, knowledge, and advice. Global Practice / Cross Team Member Cutting Area/ Unit/ Role Governance Verena Fritz, Museme Munira Issa Poverty Utz Pape, Johan Mistiaen Varalakshmi Vemuru, Zishan Faiza Karim, Stavros Urban, Rural & Social George Stavrou, Alexandra Burrall Jung, Verena Phipps, Development Martin Onyach-Olaa, Tesfamichael Nahusenay Mitiku, Muhammad Zulfiqar Transport and ICT Ahmed, Timothy John Charles Kelly Oksana Nagayets, Patricia Wycoco, Manuel Moses, IFC Zahia Lolila , Frank Douamba Fragility, Conflict & Violence Alexandre Marc South Sudan CMU Yousra Abdelrahman, Santa Maria Aguti Social Protection & Labor Endashaw Tadesse Gossa, Nadia Selim Energy & Extractives Rahul Kitchlu Agriculture Maurizio Guadagni Health Nutrition & Population Anne Margreth Bakilana Finance & Markets Yoko Doi, Michael Corlett Trade & Competitiveness Andres F. Garcia Program Leaders Nicola Pontara, Dean Cira Peer Reviewers Joel Hellman, Kevin Carey Task Team Leaders Preeti Arora, Paolo Zacchia Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................... i I. Country Context.................................................................................................................1 II. Framing South Sudan’s Development Challenges ..........................................................3 1. Fragility ........................................................................................................................3 2. Macroeconomic and Growth Performance ...................................................................7 3. Poverty, Livelihoods and Vulnerability ......................................................................11 4. Human Development ..................................................................................................26 5. Infrastructure ..............................................................................................................30 6. Governance and Institutions .......................................................................................33 7. Development Assistance and Effectiveness ...............................................................36 III. Pathways out of Fragility and Poverty ...........................................................................39 1. Analytical Framework and prioritization ...................................................................39 2. Key Constraints ..........................................................................................................44 3. Proposed Solution Areas ............................................................................................54 4. Top Priority Themes ...................................................................................................71 IV. Consultations and Team Composition ...........................................................................73 1. Consultative Process ...................................................................................................73 2. Team Composition .....................................................................................................75 Annex 1. Existing Analytical Work and Data .....................................................................76 Annex 2. Summary of Knowledge and Data Gaps in the SCD .........................................80 Annex 3. Historical Background ..........................................................................................82 References ...............................................................................................................................86 List of Figures E 1: South Sudan: A Huge Basic Needs Deficit .............................................................................. i E 2: Breaking out of Conflict and Fragility Traps through Institutional Development .................. ii E 3: Schematic Analytical Framework .......................................................................................... iii Figure 1: Composition of GDP ....................................................................................................... 7 Figure 2: Growth of GDP ............................................................................................................... 7 Figure 3: Decomposition of South Sudan’s GDP growth ............................................................... 8 Figure 4: Systematic overspending of the budget in 2011 (South Sudanese Pounds) .................... 8 Figure 5: Original budget, revenue and expenditure outturn from 2006 to 2011/12 ...................... 8 Figure 6: Wage Bill share in total expenditures (percent) .............................................................. 8 Figure 7: Share of capital expenditures in total expenditures (percent) ......................................... 8 Figure 8: South Sudan poverty headcount by state ....................................................................... 14 Figure 9: Percentage of rural population per state in South Sudan ............................................... 14 Figure 10: State-level prevalence of moderate and severe food insecurity, 2009 to 2012 ........... 14 Figure 11: Population and poverty by livelihood zones ............................................................... 15 Figure 12: Affected population, which lost at least 10 percent of consumption by the oil-shutdown, by state and nation-wide. .............................................................................................................. 15 Figure 13: Affected population by the internal conflict, by state and nation-wide ...................... 16 Figure 14: Simulated changes in poverty from 2009 to 2011 as