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¿Hasta Qué Punto Es Inminente El Colapso De La Civilización Actual?

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¿Hasta Qué Punto Es Inminente El Colapso De La Civilización Actual? ¿Hasta qué punto es inminente el colapso de la civilización actual? Ferran P. Vilar Otoño-Invierno 2014-2015 Puiblicado en Usted no se lo Cree http://alturl.com/6nr4y 1 Sumario ¿Hasta qué punto es inminente el colapso de la civilización actual? ........................................... 1 Sígame, por favor .......................................................................................................................... 6 1. Introducción .............................................................................................................................. 8 2. La visión sistémica -2.1. La teoría de sistemas, un paradigma científico alternativo ............. 11 Dinámica rápida, dinámica lenta ......................................................................................... 12 Mirar al bosque y no a los árboles ...................................................................................... 13 El signo de las realimentaciones ......................................................................................... 15 La necesaria unidad de las ciencias ..................................................................................... 16 Historia de la dinámica de sistemas .................................................................................... 17 Propiedades que emergen .................................................................................................. 20 Todo es termodinámica ...................................................................................................... 21 2. La visión sistémica – 2.2: Estabilidad y equilibrio ................................................................... 24 Estabilidad y sus umbrales .................................................................................................. 24 Las consecuencias de pasarse de vueltas ............................................................................ 25 La importancia clave de los retardos .................................................................................. 25 Diseñar controladores, un baño de realidad ....................................................................... 26 2. La visión sistémica – 2.3: De contornos y sostenibilidades ..................................................... 30 La importancia del contorno ............................................................................................... 30 ¿Contorno, frontera, entorno, medio ambiente? ............................................................... 31 ¿Qué tipo de economista es usted? .................................................................................... 32 Sostenibilidad ¿débil? ......................................................................................................... 34 Desacoplos mentales y termodinámicos sobre un globo ................................................... 35 3. Percepciones humanas de los sistemas naturales y económicos ........................................... 39 Y muchas más limitaciones perceptivas .............................................................................. 40 Pobre sistema climático ...................................................................................................... 42 La ayuda insustituible de las matemáticas .......................................................................... 42 La analogía del mapa ........................................................................................................... 44 4: Aplicaciones de la dinámica de sistemas al sistema climático ................................................ 45 Está verde ............................................................................................................................ 47 En el ciclo de carbono si ...................................................................................................... 48 Geoingeniería, la última frontera ........................................................................................ 49 5. Aplicaciones de la dinámica de sistemas a las ciencias sociales ............................................. 53 Ciclos históricos ................................................................................................................... 54 2 Los amos del mundo ........................................................................................................... 55 La cuestión del determinismo ............................................................................................. 55 Gobernanza y control social ................................................................................................ 56 6. Aplicaciones de la dinámica de sistemas a la economía ......................................................... 59 Dios en el mercado .............................................................................................................. 61 ¿Totalitarismo científico? .................................................................................................... 64 Negacionismo económico-dinámico ................................................................................... 66 7: Las (no) previsiones del Massachusetts Institute of Technology ............................................ 68 Críticas y negacionismos a LLDC .......................................................................................... 68 Los profesionales del no ...................................................................................................... 70 Ataques desde el otro flanco .............................................................................................. 73 Nuestros negadores patrios ................................................................................................ 75 Disonancias romanas .......................................................................................................... 78 8: Los mensajes (auténticos) de ‘Los Límites del Crecimiento’ ................................................... 80 Lujo generacional ................................................................................................................ 80 Límites al crecimiento ¿de qué? .......................................................................................... 81 Los mensajes clave .............................................................................................................. 81 9: Nivel de cumplimiento de las previsiones de LLDC - 9.1 Las revisiones, y primeras conclusiones ................................................................................................................................ 85 ¿Estaría en lo cierto, a pesar de todo? ................................................................................ 85 La revisión de 2014.............................................................................................................. 86 Crisis energética y su influencia en la economía ................................................................. 88 9: Nivel de cumplimiento de las previsiones de LLDC - 9.2 Repasando conceptos y definiciones ..................................................................................................................................................... 90 La singularidad energética .................................................................................................. 90 La megamáquina ................................................................................................................. 91 Qué es el pico del petróleo ................................................................................................. 91 Qué es la tasa de retorno energética .................................................................................. 93 El meollo de la cuestión ...................................................................................................... 95 La trampa de la eficiencia.................................................................................................... 96 Picos de Barbastro ............................................................................................................... 97 9: Nivel de cumplimiento de las previsiones de LLDC - 9.3 Qué es lo que produce el colapso 104 Por dónde se produce el colapso ...................................................................................... 105 Límites de las energías alternativas .................................................................................. 106 No todo es electricidad (ni mucho menos) ....................................................................... 109 3 9: Nivel de cumplimiento de las previsiones de LLDC - 9.4 ¿Es World3 el único en predecir un colapso inminente? ................................................................................................................... 110 ¿La NASA contra la desigualdad? ...................................................................................... 112 El ‘Colapso de las Sociedades Complejas ‘ ........................................................................ 113 10: ¿Lograremos evitarlo? ......................................................................................................... 114 La patronal española y el petróleo .................................................................................... 114 Lo saben, lo saben ............................................................................................................. 116 ¿Podría no ser tan grave? .................................................................................................
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