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LG Uplus (032640 KS/Hold) LG Uplus (032640 KS/Hold) Jihwoo Choi +822-768-3262 [email protected] August 1, 2011 Haedeun Kim +822-768-4180 [email protected] Company Report Weak 2Q11 results amid uncertainties 2Q11 Review: Generally disappointing results 2011 EBITDA and capex guidance figures unchanged Maintain our cautious view 2Q11 Review: Generally disappointing results LG UplusÊ 2Q11 revenues beat both our and consensus estimates, but its operating profit and net profit fell shy of expectations. LG Uplus posted 2Q11 operating revenues of W2.30tr and an operating profit of W60.3bn (vs. our respective forecasts of W2.11tr and W100bn). The companyÊs marketing expense-to-revenue ratio increased slightly to 24.7% from 23.2%. Table 1. 2Q11 results – actual vs. Daewoo estimates vs. consensus (Wbn, %, %p ) 2Q11 1Q11 QoQ 2Q10 YoY DW estimates 2Q11 Consensus 2Q11 Revenues 2,303.6 2,116.5 8.8 1,977.2 16.5 2116 2185.8 Operating profit 60.3 89.9 -32.9 97.4 -38.1 101 100.1 EBITDA 346.5 370.0 -6.3 407.5 -15.0 400 Pre-tax profit 39.8 69.2 -42.4 79.7 -50.0 57 101.3 Net profit 35.3 57.0 -38.1 68.9 -48.8 45 49.7 Operating margin 3.8 5.8 -2.0 6.1 -2.3 4.8 4.6 Net profit margin 1.5 2.7 -1.2 3.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 Source: Thomson Reuters, Company data, Daewoo Securities Research estimates The impact of the rapid increase in the number of LG UplusÊ smartphone users was reflected in 2Q11 (960,000 net adds; 2.1mn smartphone users). Indeed, wireless data revenues increased substantially (up 37.5% YoY; up 16.7% QoQ), while mobile data ARPU was also up substantially (33.0% YoY; up 15.0% QoQ). The increase in LG UplusÊ wireless data revenues appears to have offset the decline in the companyÊs voice revenues. LG UplusÊ key revenue growth areas include IPTV (up 85.3% YoY; up 9.9% QoQ) and internet leased lines (up 24.7% YoY; up 5.6% QoQ). The companyÊs debt level increased substantially in 2Q11 to W3.29tr (from W2.65tr), as did its intangible assets (the company purchased 800 MHz and 1.8GHz frequency spectrums). § Earnings & Valuation Metrics FY Revenues OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDA FCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (X) (X) (X) 12/09 4,949 387 7.8 308 1,111 836 132 15.4 7.6 1.2 3.8 12/10 8,499 653 7.7 564 1,102 1,906 124 18.9 6.5 1.1 3.1 12/11F 8,525 386 4.5 165 321 2,330 10 4.2 16.6 0.8 2.2 12/12F 8,997 423 4.7 182 354 2,238 -572 4.6 15.0 0.7 2.7 12/13F 9,415 647 6.9 372 722 2,349 501 9.2 7.4 0.7 2.4 Note: All numbers are based on K-IFRS consolidated basis, NP refers to net profit to controlling interests Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research estimates Please read carefully important disclosures at the end of this report. August 1, 2011 LG Uplus 2011 EBITDA and CAPEX guidance figures unchanged During its earnings conference call, LG Uplus maintained its 2011 EBITDA guidance of W1.65tr (vs. our estimate of W1.62tr), which was originally set in January, despite soft 2Q11 results. Meanwhile, the companyÊs smartphone subscriber target was raised from 3.5mn to 4.0mn. LG Uplus seems optimistic about achieving its EBITDA guidance given the rapid increase in smartphone subscribers. The company maintained its CAPEX guidance at W1.7tr, with LTE network-related CAPEX expected to reach W850bn. While the company administered only W440bn in CAPEX in 1H11, more than 60% of its annual CAPEX is typically incurred in the second half of each year (SK Telecom and KT have similar CAPEX patterns). Figure 1. Marketing expense/revenue ratio trend and forecasts Figure 2. Net subscriber additions (%) ('000 subscribers) 40 200 30 150 20 100 10 50 0 0 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11F 4Q11F 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Maintain our cautious view LG Uplus will start selling single-mode LTE smartphones in 2012 upon the completion of its LTE network. The company should introduce CDMA/LTE dual-mode phones in 2011. However, we think that it is a bit early to view LG Uplus positively due to the financial burdens that the company is going to face in 2011~12 owing to its LTE investments and frequency spectrum acquisitions. Indeed, LG UplusÊ aggressive 4G LTE network rollout plan could cause a heavy financial burden due to increased interest expenses and a higher debt level. In June, SK Telecom announced the details of the new mobile pricing plan recommended by the Korea Communications Commission (KCC). It is widely speculated that LG Uplus (along with KT) will match the announced plan. This may put pressure on the companyÊs top and bottom lines. Figure 3. Share price performances by company (4/1/11=100) LG Uplus SK Telecom 110 KT KOSPI 105 100 95 90 85 80 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 Source: Daewoo Securities Research Daewoo Securities Research 2 August 1, 2011 LG Uplus Important Disclosures & Disclaimers As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. issued equity-linked warrants with LG Telecom as an underlying asset, and other than this, Daewoo Securities has no other special interests in the covered companies. Analyst of the subject company or member of the analyst's household does not have any financial interest in the securities of the subject company and the nature of the financial interest (including without limitation, whether it consists of any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position). This report reflects the sole opinion of the analyst without any external influences by third parties. Buy Relative performance of 20% or greater (W) LG Uplus Stock Trading Buy Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility 12,000 10,000 Ratings Hold Relative performance of -10% and 10% 8,000 Sell Relative performance of -10% 6,000 Overweight Fundamentals are favorable or improving 4,000 Industry 2,000 Neutral Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Ratings 0 8/09 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 Underweight Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening * Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (----), Target price (----), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Daewoo Securities, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. This report has been provided by the research division of Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. The stock ratings, target prices, estimates and overall viewpoints are from the research division of Daewoo Securities. Investors can access Daewoo SecuritiesÊ research directly through our website (www.bestez.com), FirstCall Research, Reuters, FnGuide, WiseFn, FactSet and Bloomberg (DWIR). This document was prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰). Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. The information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Daewoo and/or other affiliate companies, their directors, representatives, or employees may have long or short positions in any of the securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this document or issuers described herein at any time and may purchase and/or sale, or offer to purchase and/or sale such securities or other financial instruments in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principal or agent. This document is for distribution within the United Kingdom to persons authorized under the Financial Services Act 1986. Daewoo Securities is the sole provider of information contained in this document. DaewooÊs U.S. affiliate, Daewoo Securities (America) Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC, is the sole distributor of this document within the U.S. This document may be distributed in the U.S. only to major U.S. institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Any U.S. recipient of this document wishing to effect any transactions in any securities discussed herein should contact and place orders with Daewoo Securities (America) Inc. Daewoo Securities International Network Daewoo Securities Co. Ltd. (Seoul) Daewoo Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd. Daewoo Securities (America) Inc. Head Office Two International Finance Centre 600 Lexington Avenue 31-3 Yeouido-dong, Yeengdeungpo-gu Suites 2005-2012 Suite 301 Seoul 150-716 8 Finance Street, Central New York, NY 10022 Korea Hong Kong United States Tel: 82-2-768-3026 Tel: 85-2-2514-1304 Tel: 1-212-407-1022 Daewoo Securities (Europe) Ltd.
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