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Telecom Service Solid Downside Support and Decent Growth Potential

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Telecom Service Solid Downside Support and Decent Growth Potential Telecom Service Solid downside support and decent growth potential In late phase of LTE era: Consumption diverging and becoming rational LTE technology came to Korea in end-2011 . Nearly five years later, the domestic telecom service industry is now entering the late phase of the LTE era. During the Overweight (Maintain) initial high-growth phase, early adopters purchased expensive handsets and subscribed to high-priced rate plans. Now, telecom service consumption trends are changing. 1) First, consumption is diverging, with the gap between telcos’ average 2H16 Outlook Report rates and MVNO rates widening further this year, compared to 2012 . 2) Second, June 3, 2016 consumers are becoming more rational. Low- to mid-end handset purchases out of all purchases are estimated to be near 30%, from less than 10% in 2012. In addition, the cumulative number of subscribers who have chosen a rate discount in lieu of Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. subsidies has surpassed 10% of overall mobile subscribers. [Telecom Service / Media ] Risks from telecom plan restrictions; Opportunities from growing data usage and business expansion Jee -hyun Moon The most serious threat to telcos in 2H should be downward pressure on plan +822 -768 -3615 prices. Once the new National Assembly takes office in June, a revision to the [email protected] handset distribution act and a bill related to telecom plan restrictions will likely be Nu -ri Ha proposed. With ARPU growth slowing and service rate discounts being booked as +822 -768 -4130 sales discounts , telcos must find ways to deal with the growing pressure to lower telecom bills. In our view, they could point to the following facts to justify current [email protected] rates: 1) Telecom expenses as a percentage of household spending have steadily decreased over the past decade. 2) Handset purchase expenses are a bigger driver of household spending growth than service plans. 3) Data plans are cheaper in Korea than in other countries. On the bright side, we believe telcos will find opportunities from high-priced rate plans amid growing data usage. In addition, telcos are expanding aggressively into new business areas, with a particular growing influence in the media business . Furthermore, capitalizing on nationwide IoT networks, telcos are planning full- swing launch of low-power wide-area network (LPWAN) services. 2H: Attractive dividend payout; Aggressive expansion; Retain Overweight Free cash flow at domestic telcos is improving markedly. Cap ex has been on the downswing in the era of advanced telecom technology, while variable costs have also decreased due to stable marketing competition. Given stable earnings and ample cash flow, we expect telcos to show attractive dividend payout. If shares correct due to regulatory risks, high dividend yields should provide downside support. Telcos’ growth prospects also appear decent in light of their aggressive business expansion. We retain our Overweight rating on the telecom sector. In the short term, we recommend KT in light of its high earnings visibility and dividend growth . And from a longer-term perspective (through the end of the year), we recomm end SK Telecom (SKT) given its high dividend payout and aggressive business expansion. Korean telecom service industry index long -term trend : Key variables are ARPU, dividends, and new businesses (W) [Increased dividends; New businesses] (p) 38,000 Average ARPU of three big telcos (L) Downside support, growth potential 50 Telecom service industry index (R) LTE KOSPI/50 (R) introduction 45 35,500 40 33,000 35 Telecom sector 30,500 trading range may rise 30 28,000 25 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16F 17F 18F Note: KOSPI divided by 50 to show on same axis as telecom index; Telecom index is FTSE Korea Telecom Index; Source: Thomson Reuters, respective companies’ data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research June 3, 2016 Telecom Service C O N T E N T S Industry trends: Entering late phase of LTE era 3 1. Consumption diverging 3 2. Consumers becoming increasingly rational 4 3. Cash utilization 5 Risks in 2H: Regulations 6 1. Pressure to cut telecom rates 6 2. How to handle growing pressure to lower monthly bills 7 Opportunities in 2H16: Growth strategy 9 1. Wireless 9 2. Media 14 3. Internet of Things (IoT) 20 Investment & valuation 22 1. Attractive dividend yields 22 2. Investment strategy 23 3. Valuation comparison 24 KT (030200 KS) 25 SK Telecom (017670 KS) 28 LG Uplus (032640 KS) 31 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 June 3, 2016 Telecom Service Industry trends: Entering late phase of LTE era 1. Consumption diverging LTE technology came to Korea in end-2011. Nearly five years later, the domestic telecom service industry is now entering the late phase of the LTE era. During the initial high-growth phase, early adopters purchased expensive handsets and subscribed to high-priced rate plans. Now, telecom service consumption trends are changing. First, consumption is diverging. While subscribers to relatively high-priced LTE plans are expanding, MVNO subscribers are also growing. Currently, MVNO subscribers account for 10.5% of overall subscriptions, and this figure is expected to grow to roughly 15% by year- end. And the gap between telcos’ average rates and MVNO rates has been widening further this year compared to 2012. In France and Japan, which introduced MVNO before Korea, MVNO subscribers make up 10% and 17% of overall subscribers, respectively. Despite the later introduction, Korea has seen a swift increase in MVNO subscribers, aided by the government’s support and promotion and strong marketing activities by CJ HelloVision. Figure 1. Consumption is diverging, as subscribers to high -priced LTE plans and low -priced MVNO plans are growing simultaneously (mn people) (mn people) 50 Number of LTE subscribers (L) 7 Number of MVNO subscribers (R) 6 40 5 30 4 3 20 2 10 1 0 0 1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 Source: MSIP, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 2. The ARPU gap between traditional telcos (MNOs) and MVNOs is widening (W) 40,000 Average MNO ARPU Average MVNO (CJ HelloVision) ARPU 35,000 30,000 W14,642 difference 25,000 W10,728 difference 20,000 15,000 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 Note: ARPU = average revenue per user Source: Respective companies’ data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 June 3, 2016 Telecom Service 2. Consumers becoming increasingly rational Consumers are becoming increasingly rational in choosing telecom services. An increasing number of subscribers are opting for a rate discount instead of subsidies when purchasing handsets. The option to receive a discount upon purchase was introduced in October 2014, and in April 2015, the government increased the discount to 20% (from 12%). Starting this year, consumers can look up whether discounted rates are available to them. The handset distribution act placed a ceiling on subsidies. In addition, for premium models, initial subsidies are minimal, prompting consumers to opt for discounted rates. Low- to mid-end handset purchases out of all purchases are estimated to be near 30%, from less than 10% in 2012. The average selling price at global handset producers declined to US$291 in 2016, from US$386 in 2012. Overall improvement in smartphone specifications has contributed to the growth of low/mid-end phone sales. In efforts to boost sales volume, handset makers have been lowering the prices of premium models and/or expanding their low/mid-end lineups. Domestic telcos’ launch of low/mid-end handset brands—namely SKT’s LUNA—also contributed to an increase in subscribers. Figure 3. Cumulative number of subscribers opting for discounted rates is growing , prom pted by increase in discount and introduction of discount eligibility inquiry se rvice (mn people) 1/16: (%) 8 Cumulative number of subscribers opting for discount (L) Started discount 12 Proportion of all mobile subscribers (R) eligibility inquiry service 10 6 8 4 6 4 4/15: 2 Raised discount to 10/14: 20% from 12% 2 Introductionof discounted rate option 0 0 10/14 1/15 4/15 7/15 10/15 1/16 Source: MSIP, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 4. Proportion of mid /low -end mobile phone purchases recently reached 30% , from below 10% in 2012 (%) 40 Proportion of low/mid-end smartphone purchases out of all purchases 30 20 10 0 2012 2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Note: Low/mid-end phones defined as those priced below W500,000 Source: MSIP, ATLAS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 June 3, 2016 Telecom Service 3. Cash utilization Free cash flow at domestic telcos is improving markedly. Capex has been on the downswing in the era of advanced telecom technology, while variable costs have also decreased due to stable marketing competition. Given stable earnings and ample cash flow, we expect telcos to show attractive dividend payout. Thanks to its stable cash flow, we believe the telecom services industry will stay relatively immune from the wave of restructuring now affecting many other domestic industries. However, telcos’ revenue growth has slowed from the early stage of LTE. Thus, they are making various efforts to revitalize growth based on their surplus cash. SKT has seen its free cash flow improve since 2013. The company has used its surplus cash to pay out dividends and purchase treasury shares. This year, the company is expanding investments in new businesses, including the acquisition of CJ HelloVision (which is now awaiting government approval). Meanwhile, SK Planet, SKT’s consolidated subsidiary, is strengthening the competitiveness of its online/mobile shopping mall 11th Street based on its cash and via external financing. KT, too, has seen positive cash flow trends; free cash flow turned positive in 2015, and thus the company resumed dividend payments last year.
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