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Legacy Mobile Network Rationalisation Experiences of 2G and 3G Migrations in Asia-Pacific

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Legacy mobile network rationalisation Experiences of 2G and 3G migrations in Asia-Pacific May 2020 Copyright © 2020 GSMA LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION Established in 1997, Network Strategies Limited’s core Windsor Place Consulting Pty Ltd (WPC) is internationally business is to provide research and analysis on ICT markets, recognised as an outstanding provider of advice to the regulation and strategy. We offer a complete global outlook information industries. The firm, established in 2000, works on key issues affecting all players in the telecommunications extensively in telecommunications, media, and information and new media sectors. We possess a unique and effective technology, both in the development of commercial strategies combination of experience and qualifications in economics, for the private sector and the formulation of national policy engineering, modelling, statistics and telecommunications, and legislative settings for public sector clients. WPC’s team and our work covers all aspects of telecommunications members have a long association with these industries, having strategy. Our clients encompass policy-makers, regulators, been actively involved through various stages of market operators, vendors and industry associations. liberalisation, from the introduction of competition in Australia in the 1990’s to the drafting and implementation of modern convergence legislation in a range of markets especially in Asia, Africa and the Pacific. Network Strategies and WPC acknowledge the significant contribution of various officials from the GSMA, national regulatory agencies, mobile network operators and equipment vendors in the preparation of this report. LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION Contents 1 Executive summary 2 2 Introduction 4 3 Key drivers and barriers 6 3.1 Overview 6 3.2 Market drivers 7 3.3 Barriers 10 3.4 Regulatory aspects 14 3.5 Costs versus benefits 16 4 Key lessons 17 4.1 Different drivers for different markets 17 4.2 Characteristics of a successful switch-off 18 4.3 The future of 3G 20 Annex A: Australia: 2G and 3G switch-off 21 A.1 Mobile market 21 A.2 Key drivers 23 A.3 Challenges 24 A.4 Optimal conditions 25 A.5 Risks 27 A.6 Key takeaways 27 Annex B: New Zealand 2G switch-off 28 B.1 Mobile market 28 B.2 Key drivers 32 B.3 Process 36 Annex C: Japan: 2G switch-off 37 C.1 Mobile market 37 C.2 Key drivers 40 C.3 Process 43 Annex D: Singapore: 2G switch-off 44 D.1 Mobile market 44 D.2 Key drivers 47 D.3 Process 48 D.4 Challenges 49 D.5 Optimal conditions 49 Annex E: South Korea: 2G switch-off 50 E.1 Mobile market 50 E.2 Key drivers 53 E.3 Optimal conditions 54 E.4 Case study: KT’s early 2G switch-off 55 Annex F: Macao, SAR 56 1 LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION 1. Executive summary The pioneers in legacy network rationalisation are found in the Asia-Pacific region. Here operators started rationalising 2G services as early as 2008 to 2012, with many others following in more recent years. Drawing on the experience of six case study markets from the Asia-Pacific region, this report explores the most suitable market, regulatory and commercial conditions for achieving a smooth and successful switch-off. The case study markets differ in terms of characteristics of the mobile market, extent of regulator involvement and approaches to spectrum allocation and management. As such, the impact of each of the key drivers on the decisions varied from market to market, with spectrum related issues being the most prominent driver. Decisions to sunset 2G services and, more recently, 3G MNOs: key risks services are based on a wide range of considerations. Mobile • Customer churn, particularly when operators do not switch network operators (MNOs) seek to rationalise legacy network off at the same time technologies as more spectrally efficient technologies become • Uncertain demand for new services and capacity available and the nature of consumer demand changes. • The cost of migrating M2M connections MNOs: key drivers and benefits • Possible changes in coverage, particularly if the new • Refarm spectrum and deploy most cost-effective technology (such as VoLTE) does not provide the same technology; coverage as the replaced legacy technology on the same • Reduce operational costs; band, or it operates in a frequency band that does not provide adequate indoor coverage without further network • Meet increased demand for mobile broadband and data investment intensive applications from smart devices; • Potential brand damage if some customers are left • Potential market and competitive effects for the first mover; without coverage, are forced to upgrade handsets or large • Meet Government expectations of deploying the latest numbers of M2M connections are disconnected for business innovative mobile technology. customers. Comprehensive strategies require an understanding of risks for both operator and consumer. 2 LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION Decisions are invariably driven by operators, with differing Delays in scheduling 2G network rationalisation projects may degrees of involvement by regulatory authorities. The latter is, be caused by the size of operators’ customer bases for 2G for example, needed if spectrum allocations are not technology on M2M and IoT applications, particularly where long term neutral. However, consumer protection is typically the paramount support agreements exist. Given that technical options exist for concern of regulators. Thus, a smooth process depends on careful migrating such applications, the cessation decision for 2G and planning of a transitional period, obtaining regulatory approval 3G technologies is an economic one. Key factors in the decision where necessary, and above all ensuring effective customer include the size and type of subscriber base, current and forecast engagement. Based on the experience of the case study markets revenues, and the cost of substitution. best practice approaches encompass several key characteristics: For regulators, the implications of a 2G or 3G switch-off should • A transitional period of around three years, with preparations be considered in relation to key spectrum management issues. commencing earlier than formal public announcements; These include the need for minimum spectrum allocations suitable for utilising newer technologies and the possibility that • Coverage of any new technology that matches what was lengthy renewal of 2G spectrum allocations may result in unused previously offered; spectrum, particularly in sub-1 GHz bands. • A reasonable formal notice period, given specific market circumstances and potential obligations; • A well-designed campaign involving direct targeting of affected customers, possibly assisted by the regulator; • Upgrade incentives for customers, including comparably priced plans, and handset recycling initiatives as part of any 2G or 3G switch-off; and • A quality of service that is maintained during and after the transition. 3 LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION 2. Introduction With the smartphone revolution, and the rapid growth in wireless data services, 60% operators worldwide55.5% are exploring opportunities to reduce costs, or to re-use 2G/3G 50% spectrum for the more cost efficient 4G and 5G technologies, through shutting48.2% down networks40% using the older legacy technologies. However, operators are employing differing30% 29.9%decommissioning strategies and timetables, influenced by characteristics29.5% of the local markets. 22.3% 20% 14.6% 10% APAC (Asia-Pacific) markets are leading the way (Exhibit 2.1). APAC region and North America. However, due to the significant In many0% APAC markets, such as Singapore, New Zealand and size of the markets for 2G based M2M and IoT applications, many Australia, operators2011 have already decommissioned2012 their 2G2013 European2014 mobile operators are2015 planning to retire 3G2016 services networks. Phasing out 2G networks is the preferred option in the before 2G. SKT KT LGU EXHIBIT 2.1 Source: Network Strategies 2G AND 3G SWITCH-OFF AROUND THE WORLD 25 20 15 10 5 0 APAC North America Europe Rest of the world 2G 3G 100 11 90 13 13 80 18 19 19 70 60 28 27 27 50 40 30 Market share (%) 20 43 41 41 10 0 June 2017 June 2018 June 2019 4 Telstra Optus VHA Other LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION In many cases, including in Australia and New Zealand, Study objectives shutdown of 2G and 3G networks is being driven entirely by This report aims at identifying the most suitable market, operators. However, in some Asian markets the switch-off has regulatory and commercial conditions for switching off 2G and been encouraged by the regulator, and there has been greater 3G networks in APAC markets. In particular, it examines: regulatory engagement in the process. There are a number of • Likely drivers for legacy 2G and 3G network shutdown; considerations that should be explored in any development of strategies for the shutdown of legacy networks. These may • The necessary steps to initiate a network switch-off; include coverage, customer migration and affordability, local • Conflicts that might arise from suspending dependent regulations, spectrum, and may even address options for services, such as M2M and IoT, and options to mitigate these retaining a shared legacy network or the retention of 2G utilising conflicts; only minimum spectrum. • Conditions determining the sequence of 2G and 3G switch- The accelerated pace of 5G deployments in the APAC region is off; resulting in more mobile operators considering the future of their • Advantages of an operator led switch-off and incentives the 2G and 3G networks. regulator may provide to facilitate the operator led switch- off; and • Whether a set of conditions needs to be met in order to develop a best practice approach. 5 LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION 3. Key drivers and barriers 3.1 Overview Since the introduction of 2G in the early 1990s, it has been the As of mid-2019, more than 20 2G networks and at least five prevalent mobile networking technology in terms of coverage in 3G networks have been decommissioned globally1. Many other most markets.
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