Stop the Robot Apocalypse Amia Srinivasan
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BMGF Malaria 2-10-14 (Public)
A conversation with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation malaria team on December 9, 2013 Participants • Alan Magill — Director, Malaria program, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation • David Brandling-Bennett — Senior Advisor, Malaria program, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation • Bruno Moonen - Deputy Director, Malaria program, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation • Alexandra Farnum — Program Officer, Global Program Advocacy, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation • Meg Halverson — Consultant, Global Program Advocacy, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation • Adrienne DiCasparro — Associate Program Officer, Giving Partnerships, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation • Cari Tuna — Co-Founder, Good Ventures • Holden Karnofsky — Co-Founder, GiveWell Note: This set of conversation notes was compiled by GiveWell and gives an overview of the major points made by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation malaria team. Summary GiveWell and Good Ventures spoke with members of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) malaria team about gaps in global malaria funding, BMGF’s strategy and projected timeline for malaria eradication, and other BMGF malaria activities. Gaps in global malaria funding GiveWell and Good Ventures asked the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) malaria team whether there is a need for funding of better data on bed net durability and bed net usage. There is not as much knowledge and data about bed net usage and bed net durability as there should be. A potential source of variability in bed net durability is that, currently, there are no globally established criteria for measuring the durability of bed nets, so it is possible that net durability standards differ between producers. The Results for Development Institute (R4D) is doing very good work on studying bed net durability. -
Effective Altruism William Macaskill and Theron Pummer
1 Effective Altruism William MacAskill and Theron Pummer Climate change is on course to cause millions of deaths and cost the world economy trillions of dollars. Nearly a billion people live in extreme poverty, millions of them dying each year of easily preventable diseases. Just a small fraction of the thousands of nuclear weapons on hair‐trigger alert could easily bring about global catastrophe. New technologies like synthetic biology and artificial intelligence bring unprece dented risks. Meanwhile, year after year billions and billions of factory‐farmed ani mals live and die in misery. Given the number of severe problems facing the world today, and the resources required to solve them, we may feel at a loss as to where to even begin. The good news is that we can improve things with the right use of money, time, talent, and effort. These resources can bring about a great deal of improvement, or very little, depending on how they are allocated. The effective altruism movement consists of a growing global community of peo ple who use reason and evidence to assess how to do as much good as possible, and who take action on this basis. Launched in 2011, the movement now has thousands of members, as well as influence over billions of dollars. The movement has substan tially increased awareness of the fact that some altruistic activities are much more cost‐effective than others, in the sense that they do much more good than others per unit of resource expended. According to the nonprofit organization GiveWell, it costs around $3,500 to prevent someone from dying of malaria by distributing bed nets. -
Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks
journal of international humanitarian legal studies 11 (2020) 295-310 brill.com/ihls Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks Hin-Yan Liu, Kristian Lauta and Matthijs Maas Faculty of Law, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Abstract This paper explores the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic through the framework of exis- tential risks – a class of extreme risks that threaten the entire future of humanity. In doing so, we tease out three lessons: (1) possible reasons underlying the limits and shortfalls of international law, international institutions and other actors which Covid-19 has revealed, and what they reveal about the resilience or fragility of institu- tional frameworks in the face of existential risks; (2) using Covid-19 to test and refine our prior ‘Boring Apocalypses’ model for understanding the interplay of hazards, vul- nerabilities and exposures in facilitating a particular disaster, or magnifying its effects; and (3) to extrapolate some possible futures for existential risk scholarship and governance. Keywords Covid-19 – pandemics – existential risks – global catastrophic risks – boring apocalypses 1 Introduction: Our First ‘Brush’ with Existential Risk? All too suddenly, yesterday’s ‘impossibilities’ have turned into today’s ‘condi- tions’. The impossible has already happened, and quickly. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, both directly and as manifested through the far-reaching global societal responses to it, signal a jarring departure away from even the © koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2020 | doi:10.1163/18781527-01102004Downloaded from Brill.com09/27/2021 12:13:00AM via free access <UN> 296 Liu, Lauta and Maas recent past, and suggest that our futures will be profoundly different in its af- termath. -
Existential Risk and Existential Hope: Definitions
Future of Humanity Institute – Technical Report #2015-1 Existential Risk and Existential Hope: Definitions Owen Cotton-Barratt* & Toby Ord† We look at the strengths and weaknesses of two existing definitions of existential risk, and suggest a new definition based on expected value. This leads to a parallel concept: ‘existential hope’, the chance of something extremely good happening. An existential risk is a chance of a terrible event occurring, such as an asteroid striking the earth and wiping out intelligent life – we could call such events existential catastrophes. In order to understand what should be thought of as an existential risk, it is necessary to understand what should be thought of as an existential catastrophe. This is harder than it first seems to pin down. 1. The simple definition One fairly crisp approach is to draw the line at extinction: Definition (i): An existential catastrophe is an event which causes the end of existence of our descendants. This has the virtue that it is a natural division and is easy to understand. And we certainly want to include all extinction events. But perhaps it doesn’t cast a wide enough net. Example A: A totalitarian regime takes control of earth. It uses mass surveillance to prevent any rebellion, and there is no chance for escape. This regime persists for thousands of years, eventually collapsing when a supervolcano throws up enough ash that agriculture is prevented for decades, and no humans survive. In Example A, clearly the eruption was bad, but the worst of the damage was done earlier. After the totalitarian regime was locked in, it was only a matter of time until something or other finished things off. -
Charitable Infidelity: When Donors Lose Control of Donor-Advised Funds Page 32
CHARITABLE INFIDELITY: WHEN DONORS LOSE CONTROL OF DONOR-ADVISED FUNDS PAGE 32 ALSO IN THIS ISSUE: 3 Congress learns about the long history of Russian election meddling 7 How the name “hate crime” designation breeds even more hate 15 Do you know how millions in refugee resettlement funds are being spent? www.CapitalResearch.org The communist movement known as Antifa (short for Anti-Fascist Action) has sparked violence across the nation. In the wake of their battling white supremacist in Charlottesville, Antifa has begun to gain mainstream popularity. But unbeknownst to much of the public, the vast majority of Antifa violence isn’t targeted at genuine fascists, but mainstream conservatives and civilians. With help from those who have encountered Antifa, Trevor Loudon guides us through the history and ideas behind the Antifa movement, starting with Leon Trotsky and going all the way through the events in Berkeley, CA and Charlottesville, VA. WATCH AT: DangerousDocumentaries.com/film/America-Under-Siege-Antifa/ ISSUE 8, 2018 CONTENTS 3 ORGANIZATION TRENDS 7 Weaponizing “Hate” COMMENTARY By Renee Nal CRC’s Research into History of Russian Meddling Takes the House Floor SPECIAL REPORT By Christine Ravold Is the U.S. Refugee Resettlement 15 System Broken? By James Simpson Capital Research is a monthly publication of the Capital Research Center (CRC), a nonpartisan education and research organization, classified by the IRS as a 501(c)(3) public charity. CRC is an independent, tax-exempt DECEPTION & MISDIRECTION TM institution governed by an independent The Politically Incorrect Guide board of trustees. We rely on private 25 to “21st Century Socialism” financial support from the general public—individuals, foundations, AKA communism and corporations—for our income. -
Whether and Where to Give1 (Forthcoming in Philosophy and Public Affairs)
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by St Andrews Research Repository 1 Whether and Where to Give1 (Forthcoming in Philosophy and Public Affairs) Theron Pummer University of St Andrews 1. The Ethics of Giving and Effective Altruism The ethics of giving has traditionally focused on whether, and how much, to give to charities helping people in extreme poverty.2 In more recent years, the discussion has increasingly focused on where to give, spurred by an appreciation of the substantial differences in cost- effectiveness between charities. According to a commonly cited example, $40,000 can be used either to help 1 blind person by training a seeing-eye dog in the United States or to help 2,000 blind people by providing surgeries reversing the effects of trachoma in Africa.3 Effective altruists recommend that we give large sums to charity, but by far their more central message is that we give effectively, i.e., to whatever charities would do the most good per dollar donated.4 In this paper, I’ll assume that it’s not wrong not to give bigger, but will explore to what extent it may well nonetheless be wrong not to give better. The main claim I’ll argue for here is that in many cases it would be wrong of you to give a sum of money to charities that do less good than others you could have given to instead, even if 1 I am extremely grateful to Derek Parfit, Roger Crisp, Jeff McMahan, and Peter Singer for extremely helpful feedback and encouragement. -
By William Macaskill
Published on June 20, 2016 Brother, can you spare an RCT? ‘Doing Good Better’ by William MacAskill By Terence Wood If you’ve ever thought carefully about international development you will be tormented by shoulds. Should the Australian government really give aid rather Link: https://devpolicy.org/brother-can-spare-util-good-better-william-macaskill-20160620/ Page 1 of 5 Date downloaded: September 30, 2021 Published on June 20, 2016 than focus on domestic poverty? Should I donate more money personally? And if so, what sort of NGO should I give to? The good news is that William MacAskill is here to help. MacAskill is an associate professor in philosophy at the University of Oxford, and in Doing Good Better he wants to teach you to be an Effective Altruist. Effective Altruism is an attempt to take a form ofconsequentialism (a philosophical viewpoint in which an action is deemed right or wrong on the basis of its consequences) and plant it squarely amidst the decisions of our daily lives. MacAskill’s target audience isn’t limited to people involved in international development, but almost everything he says is relevant. Effective Altruists contend we should devote as much time and as many resources as we reasonably can to help those in greater need. They also want us to avoid actions that cause, or will cause, suffering. Taken together, this means promoting vegetarianism, (probably) taking action on climate change, and–of most interest to readers of this blog–giving a lot of aid. That’s the altruism. As for effectiveness, MacAskill argues that when we give we need to focus on addressing the most acute needs, while carefully choosing what works best. -
Non-Paywalled
Wringing the Most Good Out of a FACEBOOK FORTUNE SAN FRANCISCO itting behind a laptop affixed with a decal of a child reaching for an GIVING apple, an illustration from Shel Silverstein’s The Giving Tree, Cari Tuna quips about endowing a Tuna Room in the Bass Library at Yale Univer- sity, her alma mater. But it’s unlikely any of the fortune that she and her husband, Face- By MEGAN O’NEIL Sbook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz, command — estimated by Forbes at more than $9 billion — will ever be used to name a building. Five years after they signed the Giving Pledge, the youngest on the list of billionaires promising to donate half of their wealth, the couple is embarking on what will start at double-digit millions of dollars in giving to an eclectic range of causes, from overhauling the criminal-justice system to minimizing the potential risks from advanced artificial intelligence. To figure out where to give, they created the Open Philanthropy Project, which uses academic research, among other things, to identify high-poten- tial, overlooked funding opportunities. Ms. Tuna, a former Wall Street Journal reporter, hopes the approach will influence other wealthy donors in Silicon The youngest Valley and beyond who, like her, seek the biggest possible returns for their philanthropic dollars. Already, a co-founder of Instagram and his spouse have made a $750,000 signers of the commitment to support the project. What’s more, Ms. Tuna and those working alongside her at the Open Philanthropy Project are documenting every step online — sometimes in Giving Pledge are eyebrow-raising detail — for the world to follow along. -
194 William Macaskill. Doing Good Better: How Effective Altruism Can Help You Help Others, Do Work That Matters, and Make Smarte
Philosophy in Review XXXIX (November 2019), no. 4 William MacAskill. Doing Good Better: How Effective Altruism Can Help You Help Others, Do Work that Matters, and Make Smarter Choices About Giving Back. Avery 2016. 272 pp. $17.00 USD (Paperback ISBN 9781592409662). Will MacAskill’s Doing Good Better provides an introduction to the Effective Altruism movement, and, in the process, it makes a strong case for its importance. The book is aimed at a general audience. It is fairly short and written for the most part in a light, conversational tone. Doing Good Better’s only real rival as a treatment of Effective Altruism is Peter Singer’s The Most Good You Can Do, though MacAskill’s and Singer’s books are better seen as companion pieces than rivals. Like The Most Good You Can Do, Doing Good Better offers the reader much of philosophical interest, and it delivers novel perspectives and even some counterintuitive but well-reasoned conclusions that will likely provoke both critics and defenders of Effective Altruism for some time to come. Before diving into Doing Good Better we want to take a moment to characterize Effective Altruism. Crudely put, Effective Altruists are committed to three claims. First, they maintain that we have strong reason to help others. Second, they claim that these reasons are impartial in nature. And, third, they hold that we are required to act on these reasons in the most effective manner possible. Hence, according to Effective Altruists, those of us who are fortunate enough to have the leisure to write (or read) scholarly book reviews (1) should help those who are most in need, (2) should do so even if we lack any personal connection to them, and (3) should do so as efficiently as we can. -
Why Maximize Expected Choice-Worthiness?1 WILLIAM MACASKILL and TOBY ORD University of Oxford
NOUSˆ 00:00 (2018) 1–27 doi: 10.1111/nous.12264 Why Maximize Expected Choice-Worthiness?1 WILLIAM MACASKILL AND TOBY ORD University of Oxford This paper argues in favor of a particular account of decision-making under nor- mative uncertainty: that, when it is possible to do so, one should maximize expected choice-worthiness. Though this position has been often suggested in the literature and is often taken to be the ‘default’ view, it has so far received little in the way of positive argument in its favor. After dealing with some preliminaries and giving the basic motivation for taking normative uncertainty into account in our decision- making, we consider and provide new arguments against two rival accounts that have been offered—the accounts that we call ‘My Favorite Theory’ and ‘My Fa- vorite Option’. We then give a novel argument for comparativism—the view that, under normative uncertainty, one should take into account both probabilities of different theories and magnitudes of choice-worthiness. Finally, we further argue in favor of maximizing expected choice-worthiness and consider and respond to five objections. Introduction Normative uncertainty is a fact of life. Suppose that Michael has £20 to spend. With that money, he could eat out at a nice restaurant. Alternatively, he could eat at home and pay for four long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets that would protect eight children against malaria. Let’s suppose that Michael knows all the morally relevant empirical facts about what that £20 could do. Even so, it might be that he still doesn’t know whether he’s obligated to donate that money or whether it’s permissible for him to pay for the meal out, because he just doesn’t know how strong his moral obligations to distant strangers are. -
The Definition of Effective Altruism
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 19/08/19, SPi 1 The Definition of Effective Altruism William MacAskill There are many problems in the world today. Over 750 million people live on less than $1.90 per day (at purchasing power parity).1 Around 6 million children die each year of easily preventable causes such as malaria, diarrhea, or pneumonia.2 Climate change is set to wreak environmental havoc and cost the economy tril- lions of dollars.3 A third of women worldwide have suffered from sexual or other physical violence in their lives.4 More than 3,000 nuclear warheads are in high-alert ready-to-launch status around the globe.5 Bacteria are becoming antibiotic- resistant.6 Partisanship is increasing, and democracy may be in decline.7 Given that the world has so many problems, and that these problems are so severe, surely we have a responsibility to do something about them. But what? There are countless problems that we could be addressing, and many different ways of addressing each of those problems. Moreover, our resources are scarce, so as individuals and even as a globe we can’t solve all these problems at once. So we must make decisions about how to allocate the resources we have. But on what basis should we make such decisions? The effective altruism movement has pioneered one approach. Those in this movement try to figure out, of all the different uses of our resources, which uses will do the most good, impartially considered. This movement is gathering con- siderable steam. There are now thousands of people around the world who have chosen -
CJR Job Description.Doc.Docx
PLEASE NOTE: THIS POSITION HAS BEEN FILLED We're keeping this PDF online so that links we've previously posted to it do not break, but we are no longer accepting applications for the role described below. Program Officer, Criminal Justice Reform The Open Philanthropy Project is looking for a founding Program Officer to lead our criminal justice reform work. We hope to contribute to a future in which the U.S. massively reduces incarceration while maintaining or improving public safety. We’re open to doing so by supporting strong advocacy and research institutions for the long run, capitalizing on political windows of opportunity, or pursuing other high-risk high-reward approaches, such as exploring how to change prosecutors’ incentives. The Program Officer will be responsible for developing our strategy and making grants, starting in the range of $5 million per year, with significant room to grow. About the Open Philanthropy Project The Open Philanthropy Project is a collaboration between Good Ventures and GiveWell in which we identify outstanding giving opportunities, make grants, follow the results, and publish our findings. Good Ventures is a philanthropic foundation whose mission is to help humanity thrive. Good Ventures was created by Dustin Moskovitz (co-founder of Facebook and Asana) and Cari Tuna, who have pledged to give the majority of their wealth to charity. GiveWell is a nonprofit that finds outstanding giving opportunities and publishes the full details of its analysis to help donors decide where to give. Criminal Justice Reform Program The United States incarcerates a larger proportion of its residents than almost any other country in the world and still has the highest level of criminal homicide in the developed world.