Issued December 10 2003 HIGHLIGHTS • Sool Plateau Update: The short Deyr rains have failed on the Sool Plateau and the next rainfall is not expected until April 2004. This is the seventh consecutive rainfall season to fail. A UN emergency assessment determined that over 90,000 pastoralists are now facing an emergency food security situation due to loss of livestock (roughly 60% of herds have died or been sold in distress) and loss of income from livestock and milk sales. An immediate and coordinated response from local authorities and the international community is needed to avert a humanitarian disaster. (see http://www.unsomalia.net/FSAU/index.htm and page 4 for further details.) • Poor Deyr Rainfall Performance in Northern and Central Regions will have further detrimental impact on Pastoral Conditions: By sharply reducing the availability of water and pasture, the poor or failed Deyr rains have adversely affected pastoralists in 1) the Hawd (incorporating the Hawd Togdheer, Hawd of Hargeisa, Hawd of Mudug and the Hawd running along the Ethiopia/Somalia border), 2) the North East of Somalia (Sool Plateau, Gebi Valley, Nugal Valley and Kakaar-Dharoor Valley) and 3) the Addun pastoral area in the central regions of Galgadud, Mudug and parts of Nugal. Conditions in these pastoral areas will require close monitoring in the coming weeks. (See article on page 2.) • Deyr Crop Establishment Progress in South Somalia : The rains started late but latest field reports and remote sensing analysis suggest that maize and sorghum are currently at establishment stage and making progress in most agricultural areas apart from Hiran and pock- ets of Bakol. Only if rainfall stops prior to the critical grain filling stage in December will the Deyr season become a complete failure. FSAU is monitoring closely. • Civil Insecurity : During November, civil insecurity in Galgadud continued to expose vulnerable groups to increased food insecurity. Some pastoralists have migrated away from the conflict area, reducing their grazing options. Those that have remained behind are expected to become extremely food insecure. IRIN reports that elders in the area say that 2,000 families are already displaced and are now living in the open without shelter and little access to food. The situation is compounded by the poor Deyr 2003 rains. In Lower Shabelle (Merca) continued militia tensions are creating unstable conditions with ominous implications for food security. Such conditions can cause increases on levies on commodities being transported by road (increasing consumer prices) and these kind of tensions can also affect the supply and demand of cereals, to and from, markets. Civil insecurity in October, close to Baidoa, led to an assessment by WFP, UNI- CEF, World Vision and ACF during November which found that up to 6,000 persons are estimated to have been displaced from civil inse- curity in the area. For a copy of this Rapid Assessement , please contact Action Contre la Faim : [email protected] • Closure of Garissa Cattle Market and Food Security Implications: Due to the discovery of a mild form of rinderpest in cattle in Kenya near the Kenya/Somali border, veterinary authorities closed the Garissa cattle market on October 15. This has adversely affected the local population in a number of ways but in particular by limiting income and employment opportunities. In Somalia this market closure has led to decreased cattle prices and increased imported commodity prices. (For a copy of the latest in depth report on the cattle market closure, please contact FEWS-Net: [email protected].) • Post-Deyr Assessment: FSAU intends to carry out a Post-Deyr Assessment in early 2004, examining agricultural and pastoralist conditions throughout Somalia, and identifying key areas for increased monitoring and contingency and response planning. Summary of ‘Deyr’ Rainfall Performance • The Deyr is the secondary rainy season in Somalia that begins in October and ends in December. Deyr rains break the long dry spell after the Gu rains end in June until the Gu rains resume in April. Deyr rains are thus critical for both crops and livestock. • For the time period October 1st to November 29th (the bulk of the Deyr rainfall season), the total rainfall, anomalies, and percent of normal are shown in Figures 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Figure 3 indicates that cumulative Deyr 2003 rainfall has all but failed in northern and central pastoral areas, with some pastoral areas only receiving 10-20% of normal rainfall. • One of the most common coping mechanisms of pastoralists is migration to areas with better water and pasture but conditions in neighboring Ethiopia are similarly poor. Late and scanty rains in Region Five of Ethiopia have not greatly helped the many Somali pastor- alists from the Hawd of Togdheer and Hargeisa Fig 1 : Rainfall Estimate (RFE) in mm Fig 2 : Rainfall Anomalies in mm Fig 3 : Percent of Normal who have moved to Oct 1-Nov 29 2003 Oct 1—Nov 29 2003 Rainfall : Oct 1-Nov 29 2003 Warder Zone of Region Five in search of pasture and water. • In southern Somalia, where the main liveli- hoods revolve around farming and agro- pastoralism, the rains have been relatively good, ranging from 80-120% of normal. These near- normal rains are likely to boost the performance of crop and livestock produc- tion. Source FEWS NET/USGS FSAU’s Key Funding Agencies : FSAU’s Key Technical Partners : United States European Agency for Commission International Development FSAU Receives Technical and Managerial Support from FAO. For more Information contact [email protected] FSAU Monthly Food Security Report December 2003 • Field reports also indicate that parts of Bay, Lower and Middle Shabelle, and Gedo regions received good late Deyr rains. Increased fodder and cereal production will improve household access to food and income sources. • The sequence of rainfall within a season is also critical. Crops that germinated and established during October require steady precipitation during November for growth and development. Figure 5 shows estimated rainfall in November (note different scale from Figure 1). Figure 5 shows Fig : 4 Rainfall (RFE) in mm Fig 5 : Rainfall Anomalies in mm Fig 6 : Percent of Normal that rainfall anomalies were not Nov 2003 Nov 2003 Rainfall Nov 2003 as pronounced in November as in October-November, indicating that most rainfall shortages occurred in October, as widely perceived. Rainfall in November was mainly above normal in extreme southern Somalia. Figure 6 shows percent of normal rainfall during November, again suggesting better rainfall in November (though the scales are not directly comparable between Figure 3 and Figure 6). November rainfall was above normal in parts of southern Somalia and some pockets in the Source : FEWS NET/USGS north. Concern for Widespread Pastoral Stress Fig 7 : Rainfall Deviation From Normal For Both The Long Rains ‘Gu’ And Short Rains ‘Deyr’. Much of Central and Northern Somalia pastoral areas are experiencing at least two seasons of below normal rainfall, as illustrated in Fig 7, which shows percent deviation from normal rainfall for the combined Gu and Deyr seasons. This is further highlighted with Fig 8 and 9, which show negative deviations for both NDVI and rainfall in the pastoral areas of Galgaduud and Togdheer. North East Hawd (Togdheer, Hargeisa, Mudug and border area Hawd between Somalia and Ethiopia) • Hawd of Togdheer : Poor rainfall and a lack of availability of fodder and water prompted pastoral households to migrate to Ethiopia’s Region V, (Warder Zone) which has also had Deyr rain failure. Hawd • Region V of Ethiopia : Reports from the Regional Disaster and Prevention Bureau, Ethiopia, on Central November 30 have said of Warder zone in Region V: ‘There has been little or no rain reported Addun Pastoral so far and the water and food security situation is poor’. It should be noted, however, that there are some deep permanent wells known as Dollo in Warder district. The Somalis have a saying : ‘Deyr la waayey Dollo loo raac’ which means ‘if the Deyr goes missing, head for Dollo’. • Hawd of Hargeisa : Deyr rains failed in Hawd of Hargeisa. Many pastoralists moved to either Ethiopia or the highlands (Golis mountains) where rains were good. Livestock in the highland pastoral zone are in good condition and the field monitor reports no diseases. Other pastoral- Source : FEWS-Net/ ists are reported to have moved to Gebiley, Kalabaydh, Togwajale and Allaybady agro-pastoral USGS areas where they can find fodder. The coastal belt in North East Somalia has already received the Hais rains (starting a month earlier than last year) and some highland pastoral- Fig 8 ists have already moved down to these areas to benefit from the good rain and pasture. • Hawd of Mudug : Localized and poor rains have been received. North East (Sool Plateau, Gebi Valley, Nugal Valley, parts of Kakaar-Dharoor Valley) • The Sool Plateau continues to be an area of critical concern. For more information see the article on page 4 and the regional highlights. • Parts of neighbouring Gebi Valley and Nugal Valley have also experienced Deyr rain failure (as well as Gu 2003 failure). These two areas have better access to water but their pasture for livestock is depleted. Their food security situation requires close monitoring. • Parts of Kakaar-Dharoor valley have experienced very poor Deyr rains and only in localized spots. The Addun Pastoral area in the Central Regions of Galgadud, Mudug and part of Nugal. Fig 9 : • The Addun pastoral area has experienced two years (2001 and 2002) of consecutive rain failure. It was hoped that the Deyr rains of 2003 would alleviate the effects of the previous drought experienced over the last two years but the Deyr rains have been disappointingly below normal. • Water trucking is already going on and the price of water is 4 to 5 times higher than normal.