RETAIL REAL ESTATE Southeast US Market Report
SPRING 2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & METHODOLOGY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I am pleased to present the 2015 Crossman & Company Retail Report for the Southeast. The remaining 24 secondary and tertiary markets are grouped by state, and the states are listed alphabetically. We included pictures of significant properties in each market on This report is the result of a tremendous amount of effort from our research department the state cover page. We collected data from a variety of sources and reported them in and the many outstanding relationships that we enjoy throughout the country. Our an easy-to-navigate infographic. We also include quotes from people operating in those partnerships with universities, trade organizations and many industry leaders lend markets. Please note: we annotated the data in the ‘Data Sources’ page at the back of a unique and dynamic perspective to this report. A list of our contributing partners is the report instead of citing the sources on each page. included at the end of the report, and we are grateful for and proud of our association with these groups. CLOSING COMMENTS The report closes with supporting information about: This report is a snapshot of a living, breathing market: if you read it and notice that a • The Editorial Board project that you are involved in or aware of isn’t mentioned, please give us your feedback. • List of Contributors We expect to release updates throughout the year, and we welcome your voice to our • Crossman & Company Scope of Services platform. • List of Data Sources • Glossary of Terms. We were asked once if we were seen as leaders in commercial real estate. Our company was much smaller at that time, and it was a tough question for us to answer. One of the Should you have any questions or comments, or want any additional information, please best definitions of leadership describes a leader as anyone who is seeking to influence call or email us at any time. We seek to be of service! people or process. Moms, coaches and teachers are leaders. By that definition, we see ourselves as leaders. Our desire for this report is to influence the industry by sharing Sincerely, high-quality data and making the market more efficient.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Our presentation begins with editorial articles on key topics in the retail industry: capital markets, the state of the retail market in Florida, and three trends that are shaping the future. John Crossman After the editorial articles, we identified the top 29 markets in the Southeast. Of those Crossman & Company President 29, we took an in-depth look at the 5 top tier markets; the result is what we’ve come to January 2015 call the “Top 5 Deep Dive.” In addition to reporting the fundamental market metrics, we compiled a list of MAI certified appraisers, landlords, and principals who bought and sold assets in the markets and interviewed them to get their insights on factors they are watching in 2015. We highlight a few of the major developments, touch on tenant activity, and report updates on improvements in the infrastructure of the biggest metropolitan areas in the Southeast: Charlotte, Atlanta, Tampa, Orlando and Miami-Dade County.
2. TABLE OF CONTENTS INTERVIEW WITH A CEO: 4 SOUTH CAROLINA 43 Michael Carroll, Brixmor Property Group 4 Charleston 44 CAPITAL MARKETS: 5 Columbia 45 High Expectations and Low Rates to Collide 5 Greenville / Spartanburg 46 RETAIL IN FLORIDA: STEADY AS SHE GOES 6 Myrtle Beach 47 RETAIL TRENDS: THREE PATTERNS TO WATCH 7 TENNESSEE 48 DEEP DIVE 8 Chattanooga 49 1: Charlotte 8 Knoxville 50 2: Atlanta 11 Memphis 51 3: Tampa / St. Petersburg 14 Nashville 52 4: Orlando 16 EDITORIAL BOARD 53 5: Miami-Dade County 19 CONTRIBUTORS 54 ALABAMA 22 SCOPE OF SERVICES 55 Birmingham 23 DATA SOURCES 56 Huntsville 24 GLOSSARY 57 Mobile 25 Montgomery 26 CROSSMAN & COMPANY OFFICES FLORIDA 27 IN THE SOUTHEAST Pensacola 28 Tallahassee 29 Jacksonville 30 Cape Coral / Fort Myers 31 ATLANTA OFFICE Naples / Marco Island 32 Palm Beach County 33 Broward County 34 Insights From Other Florida Markets 35 GEORGIA 36 Augusta 37 Columbus 38 Savannah 39 ORLANDO NORTH CAROLINA 40 OFFICE Greensboro / Winston-Salem 41 Raleigh / Durham 42 BOCA RATON OFFICE 3. INTERVIEW WITH A CEO: MICHAEL CARROLL, BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP
C&C Overall, how do you feel about 2015? In particular, do you see any new trends Brixmor’s regarding big boxes, outparcel tenants, expanding retailers and new developments? Victory Square center, M.C. I feel very positive about 2015. The supply across the shopping center industry is located in continuing to tighten. This is allowing for significant rent growth. We continue to Savannah, GA. see demand from big box retailers. Big box retailers are focused on maximizing Source: profitability through achieving the proper store size. We continue to see expansion Brixmor Media from off-price and sporting goods retailers, restaurants and a variety of service, Resources health and wellness uses. One category that has been particularly active has been the specialty grocery space. Retailers that are seeking space include Sprouts, Fresh Thyme, Lucky, Trader Joe’s, Mariano’s, and perhaps the most active is Wal- Mart Neighborhood Market.
Your name, created by a blending of bricks and mortar, implies that you continue The economic recovery, which took so long to arrive, now appears to be in full C&C C&C to believe in the physical locations of retailers. Would you comment in general on force according to the results of your tenants. You now have more than three the rising level of online sales, and specifically, how your portfolio of properties years of consistent rent increases. How do you explain these results in terms of (70% grocery-anchored) seems to be affected? economic recovery? Our grocers provide a solid foundation to our shopping. We have not seen any We are very fortunate to have below-market leases throughout the portfolio, M.C. M.C. meaningful online penetration in the grocer category. Grocers deliver consistent allowing us to renew or re-lease expiring space at significantly higher rates. In sales and the traffic is not seasonal or cyclical. Portfolio wide, our grocer sales are addition, there is virtually no new supply in the shopping center sector. The lack approaching $540 PSF and have increased every year in the 2-3% range. Given the of new supply has given us the opportunity to meet continuing anchor demand by necessity nature of our portfolio, I believe we are well insulated. redeveloping and repositioning anchor space within our portfolio at significantly
higher rents. We have taken the opportunity to recapture any underutilized space Given that many anchors are not expanding as much and that new development by existing retailers within our portfolio. We have been able to replace that C&C opportunities are limited in some cases, there seems to be increased focus on underutilized space with best-in-class anchors that are producing higher sales and redevelopment and repositioning. How is this trend impacting Brixmor’s core skill traffic and those changes have been strong catalysts for our shop leasing. sets? I noted from your website that your average shopping center age is 31 years. Does C&C Redevelopment and anchor space repositioning have always been core this require significant capital expenditures, and if so, how do you program these M.C. competencies of the company. Our recently-announced “Raising the Bar” program expenditures into your acquisition strategies? is an organization-wide focus on improving and transforming our asset base. Our focus is to continue to add best-in-class anchors to our centers, driving higher We use that figure to stress the mature and seasoned nature of the portfolio with M.C. sales and traffic and leading to strong shop space leasing. To date, this program in-fill locations, as well as the below-market leases that result from longer-dated has encompassed 179 properties resulting in 286 anchor leases with a total capital lease terms. The effective age of our properties is 14 years which takes into investment of roughly $500 million. account redevelopments or repositionings that have occurred. 4. CAPITAL MARKETS: HIGH EXPECTATIONS AND LOW RATES TO COLLIDE
Joshua Harris, Ph. D., CAIA “Occupancy and leasing rates should Director, Dr. P. Phillips Institute for Research and Education in Real Estate Dr. P. Phillips School of Real Estate, University of Central Florida continue to improve, boosting the NOI of most assets. This effect may Looking forward to 2015, there are two major trends destined to collide and produce interesting temper some of the negative impact results for the capital markets in retail real estate. The first is the continued force of low interest rates (Exhibit 1). US Treasury rates dipping below 3% have caused capitalization rates of rising cap rates.” of institutional-grade commercial real estate to reach near-record lows, producing corresponding first-rate pricing in many markets across the nation. Retail properties have lagged behind office Exhibit 1 - Interest Rates for 10-Year T-Notes and multifamily but are poised to see relative improvements as core fundamentals such as 5.5% gains in GDP (Exhibit 2) and retail sales show impressive growth. 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% This represents a potential “collision” as interest rates should rise in the face of a robust, 3.5% growing economy, more so now that the Federal Reserve has ended its successive quantitative 3.0% easing programs. Most economists do not believe rates will move significantly in 2015, but 2.5% upward surprises are possible. This could cause lower pricing in all income-producing property 2.0% transactions, especially if lenders are forced to raise their rates. It is advisable to account for 1.5% the risk of interest rate and cap rate moves in analyses performed. 1.0%
Occupancy and leasing rates should continue to improve, boosting the net operating incomes Source: 10-Year Constant Maturity Securities, Federal Reserve (NOI) of most assets. This effect may temper some of the negative impact of rising cap rates. Retail real estate is perhaps the most difficult asset class to provide clear guidance on because it is impacted by online sales diverting dollars from physical stores at an increasing Exhibit 2 - GDP Growth Becoming Powerful rate. Nonetheless, it is hard to imagine a world where people are earning more that does not $16.5 translate into happier retailers, and in turn, happier retail landlords. $16.0
Trillions $15.5 The second major force that will impact investment in retail real estate in 2015 is the vast $15.0 amount of capital seeking investment in real estate. The influx of capital is outstripping supply of investable properties for sale. Institutions are well aware of the risk of bond prices falling $14.5 due to rising rates. Many are selling bonds and looking for alternative places to invest and $14.0 much of that capital is being allocated to real estate. Increasing investor demand for income- $13.5 producing real estate may force the spread between risk-free treasury rates and property cap $13.0 rates to narrow. While it is impossible to say which of these forces will dominate, it seems safe
to say that owners of commercial real estate, including retail, have a lot to smile about in 2015. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis 5. RETAIL IN FLORIDA: STEADY AS SHE GOES Timothy S. Becker, CCIM Director, Kelley A. Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Florida has shown steady economic improvement since the 83, its highest level since April 2007. In addition, the state According to our respondents, rents will grow at the rate end of the recession. Strong job growth, robust population continues to post record tourism numbers, approaching of inflation over the next year while continuing to improve gains and record tourism are positively impacting retail 100 million visitors on an annual basis. These factors are occupancy. This will create demand for new development real estate markets in Florida. driving retail sales and the demand for retail real estate across the state, particularly in the high-growth markets across the state. like Miami and Orlando. Despite a small jump in unemployment over the summer, unemployment rates across Florida came down in the third Respondents to the UF Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Improving property fundamentals and extensive capital quarter, ranging from 5.7% to 6.2% in the major markets. Studies’ Survey of Emerging Market Conditions see these sources provide potent ingredients for retail real estate Stability in the job market has a tremendous impact on dynamics moving the retail sector in a positive direction investment. Our respondents agree and project the consumer behavior and sentiment. According to the over the next year. Continuing demand for retail space is environment for investment to be favorable for 2015. They University of Florida’s Bureau of Business and Economic improving vacancy rates and driving rents. also believe that cap rates will remain stable over the Research the Florida consumer sentiment index reached course of the next year despite the overhang of Federal Reserve action to increase short term rates and the tremendous demand for quality centers from investors. Outlook for Occupancy - Retail Outlook for Rental Rates - Retail 1 Rising Faster 1 Than Inflation 0.8 Expecting 0.8 Increase 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 Rising at the Rate 0 “Absent any unforeseen 0.2 -0.2 of Inflation -0.4 Expecting 0 No Change -0.6 -0.8 -0.2 Rising Slower shocks to the system, -1 -0.4 than Inflation -1.2 -0.6 -1.4 Expecting -1.6 -0.8 retail real estate in Decrease -1.8 -1 Declining -2 Florida should continue Large Centers Neighborhood Centers Large Centers Neighborhood Centers to improve over the Outlook for Occupancy - Retail Outlook for Rental Rates - Retail 1 Rising Faster 1 Expecting Than Inflation 0.8 0.8 next year as population Increase 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 Rising at the Rate 0 growth and record 0.2 -0.2 of Inflation -0.4 Expecting 0 No Change -0.6 -0.8 -0.2 Rising Slower tourism drive the need -1 -0.4 than Inflation -1.2 -0.6 -1.4 Expecting -1.6 -0.8 for more retail space Decrease -1.8 -1 Declining -2 throughout the state.” Strip Centers Free Standing Strip Centers Free Standing 6. Source: UF Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies’ Survey of Emerging Market Conditions RETAIL TRENDS: THREE PATTERNS TO WATCH Steven P. Kirn, Ph.D. Executive Director, Miller Center for Retailing Education and Research Warrington College of Business, University of Florida
Trend analysis is a favorite pastime for pundits of all stripes: financial analysts, meteorologists, fashionistas and, yes, retailers. In today’s highly dynamic market, there is no lack of trends, speculation about whether we can extrapolate these trend lines, and what they might portend for the future. We all like to have a leg up on the future, right?
The world of retail is evolving before our eyes: mobile retailing, in-store beacons that can single out individual customers for targeted marketing, same-day delivery, fast fashion, RFID, omnichannel, shopper and social media marketing, internet shopping, globalization and the list goes on. Indeed, these are all significant developments that will certainly play a role in shaping future retailing. Here are three patterns – a better word than “trends” – to watch closely:
1. The impact of income 2. Downsizing, 3. Shifts in Demographics. and wealth distribution. urbanization, concentration and sustainability.
Top 10% Remaining 90% California is now almost a “majority minority” We’re seeing the effects of ever-rising C state, and Florida is heading there. Asian, African concentration of wealth at the top of the pyramid, and Hispanic Americans have much higher with the top 0.01% of the US population having concentrations of young people 24 and under – about ten percent of total wealth, and the top This applies not only to stores, but to lifestyles: future consumers! Household size is declining 10% controlling about forty percent of total smaller houses, urban (vs. suburban) lifestyle significantly (less room needed, smaller and wealth. Watch for continued success of luxury preferences, easier transportation and more personalized products, etc.). Retailers will retailers at one end, and value retailers (dollar neighborhood shopping. Watch for more compact, need different products, different marketing and stores, outlet malls, discounters) at the other mixed-use developments, with walkability, different strategies to address these changes. as the incomes of the remaining 90% of the public transportation and conservation of scarce population have remained relatively constant (or resources like water as major attractions. declining, in real terms) for three decades. The “middle” will be deadly for many retailers.
These three trends (not to neglect the others) will shape where and how we shop, what we buy and the experience we demand. Retailers and related businesses should get ready now. 7. DEEP DIVE 1: CHARLOTTE
Unemployment Rates 2.34 million residents 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 926,000 people in the workforce 7% 6% 5%
$50,909 median household income National North Carolina Charlotte
52.3 million square feet of retail in IT’S ALL CONNECTED Total Retail GLA Charlotte has made its name as a banking and financing center and shopping centers, power centers and malls Malls is ideally positioned geographically as a transportation hub. There 17% is a co-venture between Norfolk Southern and the City of Charlotte 1.21 million square feet of retail delivered to to build a $92 million inter-modal facility (a transportation hub that connects air, rail and truck transport) near the airport. It is expected Power market in the 12 months ending in Q3 2014 Centers to have a $7.6 billion impact on the economy and create 7,000 jobs 15% Shopping by 2030. The project is expected to be finished by summer of 2015. Centers The Charlotte Douglas International Airport is ranked as the sixth 68% 946,000 square feet of retail construction starts busiest airport in the world. The Charlotte Outer Loop is estimated in the 12 months ending in Q3 2014 to be completed in spring of 2015, closing the loop that Interstate 485 makes around the city. Interstates 485 and 85 have also been AUGUST 2014 widened to allow for increased traffic flows. UNEMPLOYMENT
7.0% RETAIL FOLLOWS ON THE REBOUND ROOFTOPS, AND “ “ Down Charlotte persevered through the recession and shows several signs of recovery, CHARLOTTE IS from 8.0% Q3 2014 ASSET SALES both in bolstering the current infrastructure and investing resources to grow in the in August ADDING 40,000 2013 VOLUME (Rolling 12 mo.) future. In 2013, Forbes rated Charlotte #4 on its list of the fastest-growing cities PEOPLE A YEAR. $648 million since the recession, stating that its metro area grew 15.8% from 2007 - 2012. In Paul Hendershot, 2014, Forbes again named Charlotte #8 of 20 on their list of fastest-growing cities Director of Research Q3 2014 AVERAGE Up from in the US. The unemployment rate for the Charlotte MSA has steadily declined $552 million for the Charlotte CAP RATE thru from the second quarter in 2011 through the second quarter of 2014. Charlotte is Economic Development 7.0% Q3 2013 outpacing the rest of the state in employment growth, which was up 2% by the Commission Down 80 end of 2014. The residential sector is also growing. Home values are up 4.1% basis pts year to date and there have been 12,000 home closings year to date, an increase from of 30% from 2013. Q3 2013 8. CHARLOTTE RETAIL ON THE RISE Charlotte has made developing retail one of its eight goals, as announced in its Center City 2020 Vision Plan. It commissioned a study by Charlotte Center City Partners to measure the capacity for additional retail in its Uptown and South End. The study found that there is an existing inventory of approximately 2 million square feet of retail and capacity for an additional 400,000 to 800,000 square feet of retail. Since the study was published, retail space in the EpiCentre and Metropolitan developments have accounted for 200,000 square feet, leaving an additional 200,000 to 600,000 square feet of retail capacity. Mixed-use and traditional developments are in the works in other parts of the city such as Steele Creek. Retail sales to date are estimated to be $11.5 billion, up 9.1%, year-over-year.
Publix in Charlotte: Publix at Whitehall Commons
CHARLOTTE: WHERE SHOPPING IS A PLEASURE In the highly competitive grocer market, all eyes have been on Publix Supermarkets as they launched their new division in Charlotte. Their first store opened in Ballantyne in February 2014. At the close of 2014, nine stores are slated to open in the Charlotte MSA, with another six in the pipeline. Publix has been a dominant force in the Southeast for decades and has made a decisive push in to North Carolina which will continue in 2015.
Kim Reynolds, Media and Community Relations Manager for Publix in Charlotte spoke with us about their decision to enter Charlotte:
“The opening of a new division, the first in more than 20 years, was a significant time in our company’s history,” she said. “The opening of our first store in North Carolina was long anticipated by associates and customers alike. We are humbled by how the community has embraced and supported us. We continue to open stores across North Carolina and are excited to serve and invest in new communities across the
A map of the Charlotte metro area with Publix locations that are currently open and coming soon. state. We thank our associates who have worked tirelessly and who are the reason Source: http://nc.publix.com for our success. Our associates are our secret sauce going above and beyond for our customers.”
9. CHARLOTTE PERSPECTIVES FROM PRINCIPALS • The general opinion regarding retail cap rates for 2015 is that they will remain stable. WE HAVE NOT SEEN BATTLES IN [THE] SOUTHEAST MARKETS THAT Principals believe that stable demand for retail assets will help to insulate cap rates “ARE AS HOTLY CONTESTED AS THE CHARLOTTE GROCERY MARKET IS from volatile drops. NOW AND WILL BE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING • The principals believe that market vacancy will continue to drop and that rental rates TO WATCH THE “BEST IN CLASS” GROCERS LIKE HARRIS TEETER AND PUBLIX FIGHTING IT OUT WHILE SPECIALTY GROCERS LIKE are expected to climb 2% - 5% in 2015.
WHOLE FOODS, FRESH MARKET AND TRADER JOE’S ARE ALSO EACH
• The principals cited up-ticks in both single and multifamily residential construction. MAKING THEIR PUSH. ADD TO THIS LIST THE EXISTING LOW PRICE They anticipate these increases to continue to attract retailers to the Charlotte metro “ COMPETITORS WALMART, FOOD LION, BI-LO AND ALDI AND THERE area. IS A GREAT DEAL OF COMPETITION FOR THAT CONSUMER DOLLAR IN CHARLOTTE. • Hot areas to watch: Steele Creek, Uptown, South End -Josh Page, Commercial Asset Manager Pacolet Milliken Enterprises, Inc.
Shopping Center Occupancy 90.0% 89.5% Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 89.0% Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates 88.5% Cabarrus County 3,750,650 93.5% $16.20 1,365,964 97.7% $20.07 2,357,794 99.8% $40.50 88.0% Chester County 577,213 94.2% $10.28 0 - - 0 - - 87.5% 87.0% Downtown 18,026 100.0% - 0 - - 0 - - E Charlotte 5,904,116 83.0% $12.34 1,150,428 93.5% $19.75 0 - - Gaston County 3,552,137 85.1% $10.60 865,190 95.1% $20.00 1,264,508 96.8% $27.88 % Occupied Iredell County 4,174,809 88.2% $13.91 954,095 94.9% $17.00 519,341 71.4% $10.46 Lancaster County 1,160,466 89.4% $12.42 0 - - 0 - - Lincoln County 1,525,519 85.9% $10.08 0 - - 0 - - Shopping Center Rental Rates N Outlying Charlotte 1,586,420 90.8% $18.44 487,673 98.9% $25.03 519,105 98.0% $34.78 $15.00 NE Charlotte 4,549,503 93.7% $17.26 1,261,669 92.3% $20.00 517,530 73.7% - $14.50 NW Charlotte 2,405,753 87.0% $10.40 617,072 97.6% $25.00 1,096,719 100.0% - $14.00 Rowan County 1,769,072 92.9% $8.68 0 - - 319,659 53.2% - $13.50 SE Inner Charlotte 4,696,583 90.6% $21.44 0 - - 1,858,643 98.3% $28.00 $13.00 SE Outlying Charlotte 3,302,616 93.7% $19.11 2,393,090 96.9% $28.40 2,530,524 95.4% $27.21 $12.50 SW Charlotte 1,287,315 64.4% $16.78 1,111,966 99.4% $26.22 0 - - Union County 3,373,244 90.1% $12.80 652,269 97.7% $9.01 384,045 95.3% - York County 4,192,637 91.7% $11.85 0 - - 819,071 93.3% $21.48 Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 47,826,079 88.9% $13.85 10,859,416 95.9% $19.88 12,186,939 94.2% $17.62 10. DEEP DIVE 2: ATLANTA
Unemployment Rates 5.52 million residents 11% 10% 9% 8% 2.73 million people in the workforce 7% 6% 5%
$54,635 median household income National Georgia Atlanta
Total Retail GLA DRAWING THE “YOUNG AND RESTLESS” 196 million square feet of retail in Malls shopping centers, power centers and malls Atlanta was hailed in the 1990s and early 2000s as a haven for 13% the “young and restless,” young adults between 25-34, many of whom are highly educated. In the wake of the economic downturn, Power Centers 1.24 million square feet of retail delivered to headlines have proclaimed Atlanta’s fall from grace: though the 15% city experienced a staggering 30% increase in population from market in the 12 months ending in Q3 2014 2000 to 2012, there was only an increase of 3% in the young and Shopping restless demographic in the metro area. Even when it was a prime Centers destination for young adults, a 2006 study commissioned by Atlanta’s 72% 900,000 square feet of retail construction starts Metro Chamber cited two areas of concern: “The lack of a vibrant, in the 12 months ending in Q3 2014 24-hour downtown, and ... the lack of a transit system that fully and conveniently serves the community.” AUGUST 2014 UNEMPLOYMENT “CLOSE-IN NEIGHBORHOODS” ARE KEY 8.0% Interestingly, the same 2014 study that announced the turn in Atlanta’s fortunes also contained promising data when looking at the “close-in neighborhoods” in the metro area. 7.9% in Q3 2014 ASSET SALES These neighborhoods are defined as those within a three-mile radius of the metropolitan August 2013 VOLUME (Rolling 12 mo.) primary central business district. The study reveals a 39% increase in the young and restless $1.25 billion in the neighborhoods that flank downtown. Essentially, the vast majority of the young and restless demographic coming to Atlanta are concentrated in the close-in neighborhoods $1.27 billion Q3 2014 AVERAGE that surround downtown, not evenly distributed throughout the city. Many see this as a ray CAP RATE thru Q3 2013 of sunshine breaking through foreboding clouds. Indeed, Atlanta has done much to address 7.7% the concerns raised in 2006. A prime example is the Atlanta Beltline: “a combination of 7.6 in rail, trail, green space, housing and art, ultimately connect[ing] 45 intown neighborhoods.”
Q3 2013 11. ATLANTA CONSTRUCTION IN 2015 For the 12 months ending in the third quarter of 2014, 1.2 million square feet was delivered into the market with nearly 900,000 square feet under construction. The upward momentum in new construction will make rental rate increases challenging in 2015. Major retail projects of note that were delivered in 2014 include Ponce City Market (which boasts 300,000+ square feet of retail in the mixed-use overhaul of the former Sears facility) and the $600 million mixed-use project Avalon in North Fulton with 98% occupancy upon opening.
A graphic map of the Atlanta Beltline, highlighted in a green ring of trails and rails around downtown Atlanta.
Since 2005, private developers have injected more than $1 billion in projects ranging from commercial, single-family, multifamily and mixed-use sites around the Beltline. There were over 1,000 housing units under construction at the end of 2013 in the Historic Fourth Ward Park, and in 2014 renovations were finished on the 2.1 million square foot Ponce City Market mixed-use development. The developers of the Ponce City Market have announced that four more buildings are slated, with two that will front the Beltline and offer both food and retail. A stylized rendering of the Avalon mixed-use development. Avalon features 570,000 square feet of retail and restaurants, 750,000 square feet of Class A office space, luxury lofts and single-family OCCUPANCY IMPROVING, RENTAL RATES STABLE BUT COMPETITIVE residences. Phase II will include a 300-room hotel and convention center. Atlanta retail continued to perform well in 2014 with stable rental rates and steadily improving occupancy rates across all classes. Two key economic drivers impacting PERSPECTIVES FROM PRINCIPALS Atlanta retail are year-over-year gains in professional and business service jobs and • In speaking with Atlanta-area commercial appraisers, landlords, buyers and sellers strength in the housing market. Major corporations continue to expand and relocate in in the market, the overall consensus was that retail cap rates for core assets would Atlanta, including State Farm Insurance which leased approximately 1 million square feet remain fairly stable in 2015 while Class B and C properties would see continued of office space in the Perimeter submarket. Vacancy rates across all classes decreased compression. Indications are that substantial capital from both private equity and by more than 50 basis points to 8.8% over the 12 months ending in the third quarter of institutional investors would continue to apply upward pressure on values for the 2014. Rental rates over that same time period seem to have shown little movement, but best assets, while those seeking higher yields look to Class B & C properties. All of landlords report compensating by offering concessions like rent abatements and tenant the principals cited sensitivity to interest rate volatility as an unknown factor going improvement allowances. into 2015. 12. ATLANTA • Landlords expect retail rental rates to remain stable, but say that competition is fierce for quality tenants. Market concessions such as rent abatement and landlord contribution of tenant improvement dollars were prevalent throughout the Atlanta market and those concessions are expected to remain part of leasing strategies through 2015. • Principals who completed retail transactions in 2014 noted a wide variety of factors that impacted the Atlanta market, including the limited amount of new inventory delivered to the market. That sentiment was tempered with concerns over the amount of new construction currently underway and planned over the next 12 to 24 months. Public and private transportation were discussed as ongoing issues that retailers pay attention to when evaluating location accessibility. Job growth and revitalization of the areas surrounding downtown Atlanta (within the Beltline) were noted as positive indications for a healthy market in 2015 and beyond.
• Areas to Watch: North Fulton/Alpharetta, Central Perimeter, Cumberland Mall Area
Shopping Center Occupancy Mixed-use reboot: built in 1926 by Sears, Roebuck & Co, it housed a retail store and distribution 88% center for the Southeast. It has been redeveloped in to the Ponce City Market and features a mix of apartments, office space and retail. This is a view of the courtyard entrance off of North Avenue. 87% Source: PonceCityMarket.com
86%
85% Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 84% Submarket Cluster Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Buckhead 4,268,392 92.6% $21.35 1,653,278 96.7% $24.44 2,817,823 98.7% $33.83 Central Atlanta 2,309,413 92.2% $9.75 74,496 100.0% - 1,712,573 97.0% $32.10 % Occupied Central Perimeter 4,870,823 93.5% $16.25 897,421 92.4% $22.00 2,532,314 94.7% $23.15 Coweta County 1,762,046 85.9% $12.37 1,645,173 93.6% - 496,015 96.3% $25.00 Dekalb County 11,697,828 86.7% $13.29 1,682,918 97.0% $15.00 1,687,021 89.6% $9.15 Shopping Center Rental Rates Georgia 400 14,128,925 88.0% $15.67 5,159,189 91.1% $13.35 1,978,060 97.6% $36.58 $16.00 Gwinnett County 29,571,587 85.6% $12.59 5,674,241 95.9% $14.44 4,824,357 95.9% $10.84 $15.00 Morgan County 194,188 66.6% $10.41 0 - - 0 - - NE Atlanta Outlying 842,881 77.4% $9.45 406,768 98.2% - 0 - - $14.00 North Cobb County 20,109,424 88.4% $12.72 4,357,928 97.5% $23.19 1,506,653 96.8% - $13.00 South Atlanta 16,268,917 83.6% $10.11 1,311,337 86.1% - 2,727,424 90.9% $12.73 $12.00 South Cobb County 10,623,450 88.1% $11.62 1,400,124 95.2% $50.00 1,251,295 97.5% $30.00 South Metropolitan 12,873,618 84.1% $12.61 4,018,389 94.1% $18.70 1,884,787 96.4% - West Metropolitan 10,759,461 87.8% $11.35 1,933,014 98.3% - 1,991,862 63.0% $15.00 Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 140,280,953 86.9% $12.56 30,214,276 94.7% $15.37 25,410,184 92.9% $21.71 13. DEEP DIVE 3: TAMPA / ST. PETERSBURG
Unemployment Rates 2.87 million residents 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 1.37 million people in the workforce 7% 6% 5%
$43,949 median household income National Florida Tampa Total Retail GLA INVESTORS RECOVER ASSET APPETITES Malls 83.6 million square feet of retail in 15% The Tampa/St. Petersburg retail market has enjoyed robust growth shopping centers, power centers and malls Power in 2014 and that momentum is expected to continue into 2015. Centers Demand for well-located retail assets has increased exponentially. 9% 731,000 square feet of retail delivered to This is evidenced by continued cap rate compression and increased market in the 12 months ending in Q3 2014 transaction volume, especially for Class A properties. Overall cap rates across all classes of retail properties in the Tampa / St. Shopping Petersburg MSA decreased from 8.9% in the third quarter of 2013 Centers to 7.8% in the third quarter of 2014. While a lesser demand for 76% 631,000 square feet of retail construction starts Class B and C retail assets is notable, total sales volume was up in the 12 months ending in Q3 2014 significantly. There were 52 retail transactions closing in the first half of 2014 compared with just 36 transactions during the same time period in 2013. The most significant transaction AUGUST 2014 in the Tampa market took place in early 2014 with the sale of International Plaza, a 599,000 UNEMPLOYMENT square foot retail complex trading at a 4.6% cap rate. 6.8% SMALL SHOP VACANCY IMPROVES WHILE BIG BOX CLOSURES LOOM Down Q3 2014 ASSET SALES from 7.4% Tenant demand has also gained positive momentum with retail vacancy rates plunging to just in August VOLUME (Rolling 12 mo.) 6.4% at the end of the third quarter 2014, down from 7.1% for the prior year. This has also 2013 $807 million nudged the average quoted rental rate higher to $13.70 per square foot versus $13.66 a year Down earlier. 2014 saw a continuation of big box retail vacancies in the Tampa MSA. Winn Dixie’s $1.01 Bil. Q3 2014 AVERAGE thru acquisition of Sweetbay resulted in a closing of 22 locations. Kmart/Sears has either closed CAP RATE Q3 2013 or plans to close stores in Clearwater and Zephyrhills. JCPenney closed its store in Port Richey 7.8% and other big box tenants such as Staples, Office Depot and Barnes & Noble have announced plans for nationwide store closures. The Tampa/St. Petersburg retail market continues to be Down vulnerable to additional big box vacancies in 2015. from 8.9 in Q3 2013 14. TAMPA / ST. PETERSBURG NOTES ON CONSTRUCTION The acceleration of space absorption in the Tampa MSA continues to be driven in part by • Virtually all of the sellers and buyers expected to continue to seek retail opportunities a lack of significant new construction of retail space. 731,000 square feet of new retail in the Tampa MSA. More than half of the sellers we spoke with had reinvested their construction was completed between the third quarter of 2013 and the third quarter of sales proceeds into retail properties in the Tampa metro area. 2014. There is a significant increase in the pipeline going forward, with approximately • Principals expressed a concern that “overall, cap rates simply cannot go much lower” double that amount of space under construction going into the fourth quarter of 2014. in 2015. Most expected that pricing for retail assets in the Tampa MSA would remain generally stable subject to rental rate growth and interest rate movement. PERSPECTIVES FROM PRINCIPALS • Landlords felt that rental rates would continue to hold steady with a possibility of In speaking with landlords, sellers and buyers who closed significant retail transactions slight increases for Class A locations. Principals projected retail rental rate increases in 2014, the overall consensus was that the Tampa / St. Petersburg retail market will in the Tampa MSA of up to 5%. continue stabilizing and begin to experience moderate growth through 2015. Primary • When asked what specific factors in the Tampa / St. Petersburg market had the factors noted by these principals included the following: greatest ongoing impact on retail real estate, the principals identified housing • A key driver for property sales velocity was a return of demand to the marketplace. growth, a healthy consumer confidence level, lower unemployment and lack of Sellers reported that cap rate compression brought values to a level that made selling significant new construction in the market. Several principals noted improvement in attractive and buyers reported a need to deploy capital into retail investments that the per-square-foot store sales for retailers as a positive sign for continued growth have solid growth potential. going into 2015.
• Areas to watch: Channelside, Downtown, Outlet development in Wesley Chapel Shopping Center Occupancy 92% 91% Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 90% Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates 89% Bayside 1,178,092 95.2% $13.53 0 - - 1,535,715 99.6% $18.00 88% Clearwater CBD 533,030 94.2% $14.08 0 - - 0 - - 87% E Tampa 4,851,152 93.4% $14.51 1,086,289 96.0% $21.38 1,142,976 100.0% - Eastern Outlying 3,676,106 93.0% $12.96 0 - - 0 - - Gateway 1,145,808 94.4% $14.74 385,333 99.5% $0.18 0 - - % Occupied Hernando County 4,209,566 90.5% $10.40 340,642 88.1% $16.59 0 - - Mid-Pinellas 5,816,307 89.9% $12.77 520,829 98.6% $0.25 454,608 77.7% - N Pinellas 7,153,674 90.2% $14.21 576,573 90.1% $17.13 1,216,563 100.0% - Shopping Center Rental Rates NE Tampa 5,373,495 93.3% $12.69 202,669 100.0% - 1,311,184 88.6% - $17.50 NW Tampa 8,484,282 91.8% $13.47 1,146,556 97.9% $15.49 1,144,676 99.2% $25.00 $16.50 Pasco County 9,323,552 87.1% $12.28 1,737,886 93.6% $22.32 1,582,513 98.3% - $15.50 S Pinellas 6,980,963 89.2% $14.18 403,789 96.4% $15.00 1,096,118 98.2% - $14.50 S Tampa 1,610,092 90.5% $11.86 0 - - 496,183 93.5% $31.00 $13.50 SE Hillsborough 1,129,101 86.9% $16.03 268,858 97.2% - 0 - - $12.50 St Petersburg CBD 232,801 98.8% $12.00 0 - - 174,332 95.6% - Tampa CBD 299,734 56.7% - 0 - - 0 - - Westshore 1,949,798 90.7% $16.20 475,979 98.3% $30.00 2,322,245 100.0% - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 63,947,553 90.6% $13.26 7,145,403 95.6% $19.11 12,477,113 97.2% $27.67 15. DEEP DIVE 4: ORLANDO
Unemployment Rates 2.27 million residents 11% 10% 9% 8% 1.22 million people in the workforce 7% 6% 5%
$48,032 median household income National Florida Orlando
78.7 million square feet of retail in VACANCY HIGHER IN RETAIL THAN OTHER MARKET SECTORS Total Retail GLA shopping centers, power centers and malls Retail real estate in central Florida has been impacted by a variety of market factors in 2014. New construction has pushed vacancy rates slightly higher Malls 18% and asking rents have struggled to gain upward momentum. Overall market Power 870,000 square feet of retail delivered to vacancy across all classes varied little year-over-year from 7.8% in the third Centers market in the 12 months ending in Q3 2014 quarter of 2013 to 7.6% in the third quarter of 2014. 13% CONSTRUCTION ZONE Delivery of new retail inventory continues to have a significant impact on Shopping 500,000+ square feet of retail under Centers the retail market in Central Florida with more than 870,000 square feet of 69% construction in Q4 2014 new space delivered to the market during the 12 months ended in the third quarter of 2014. More than half of that space was delivered within the third AUGUST 2014 quarter. The Plaza on University (253,000 square feet) was a significant part of that total. Rental rates UNEMPLOYMENT across all classes and all submarkets in the Orlando MSA dipped to $14.34 per square foot at the end 6.3% of the third quarter 2014, down from $15.09 per square foot in the year prior. Construction and delivery Down of new space will continue into 2015 with more than 500,000 square feet under construction as of the from 7.0% Q3 2014 ASSET SALES 4th quarter of 2014. in August 2013 VOLUME (Rolling 12 mo.) $579 million PLANES, TRAINS, & AUTOMOBILES In May 2014, Phase 1 of the SunRail Commuter Rail system made its debut in central Florida. The Q3 2014 AVERAGE Up from 31-mile route runs from Sanford to Sand Lake Road at the south end of Orange County. The $1.3 $414 million CAP RATE thru billion project gained immediate acceptance and ridership is above projected levels. The public rail 7.2% Q3 2013 system bodes well for an area where the Interstate 4, the primary highway connecting the suburbs with Down 70 downtown, is scheduled to be under construction from early 2015 through 2021. Federal funding is basis pts being sought for Phase 2 of SunRail which will extend the system north into Volusia County and South from Q3 into Osceola County including a stop at Orlando International Airport. 2013 16. ORLANDO Hawk Restaurants opened in Orlando and big box retailers Roses, Academy Sports & Outdoors and Falls Discount Stores all signed leases during 2014.
PERSPECTIVES FROM PRINCIPALS • The landlords, sellers and buyers in the Orlando MSA expected cap rates for Class A retail assets to remain stable or increase slightly. Owners noted the continued appetite of Publix Supermarkets to acquire the centers they anchor, re-develop older stores and expand their smaller urban store concept as positive indicators that the grocery-anchored segment of the market will remain robust into 2015. • Most principals felt that retail vacancy rates would move slightly higher due to delivery of new projects in 2015. Most were optimistic that the demand for well- located retail across all classes would remain strong, thus mitigating the impact of the new inventory. • The landlords we interviewed said that they did not expect to be able to raise rents significantly in 2015 and most expected rental rates to remain stable. • Principals cited new construction, SunRail and population growth in the downtown market as primary market factors having the greatest impact on retail trends in the Orlando MSA. A SunRail train is ready to leave the Sand Lake Road SunRail Station • Areas to watch: International Drive, Lake Nona, Disney Springs, Downtown, Health Village SALES ACTIVITY EMPHASIZES GROCERY ASSETS Retail investment sales activity in the Orlando MSA was mixed in 2014, with the exception of grocery-anchored shopping centers. Through the end of the third quarter of 2014, 19 grocery-anchored shopping centers changed hands, up 35% from the year prior (16 of those were Publix anchored). Other notable investment sales activity in the Orlando MSA during the first three quarters of 2014 included the sale of The Loop, a nearly 440,000 square foot shopping center located in Osceola County near Disney World. The property sold for $118 million and was fully leased. Edens, Inc. also purchased the 109,000 square foot MetroWest Village for $18.7 million, or $171 per square foot.
RAISING ORLANDO: DOWNTOWN AND FRESH RETAIL FACES Among the significant activities impacting retail real estate in Central Florida, there is the continued revitalization of downtown Orlando with completion of the Dr. Phillips Center for the Performing Arts, and planned development of Creative Village Orlando, a public / private partnership that will include more than 150,000 square feet of retail. Downtown Orlando continues to make strides in its efforts to become a sports and cultural hub with the groundbreaking of the $110 million Major League Soccer stadium, scheduled to open in 2016. Bringing soccer to Orlando is projected to have a $1 billion economic impact on the area over the next 30 years. National retailers continue to see promise in the Orlando market: Trader Joe’s and Shake Shack opened locations in Winter Park, two Cooper’s The Dr. Phillips Center for the Performing Arts 17. ORLANDO
WITH UNEMPLOYMENT DOWN FROM 11.4% TO 6.3%, OVER 620,000 JOBS ADDED SINCE “DECEMBER OF 2010, AND OVER 500 PEOPLE MOVING INTO THE STATE PER DAY, FLORIDA
IS ONE OF OUR NATION’S LEADERS FOR JOB AND POPULATION GROWTH. THESE TRENDS,
COUPLED WITH LOW MORTGAGE RATES AND LOW TAXES HAVE DRIVEN STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN MOST AREAS OF THE LAND MARKET IN THE STATE OF“ FLORIDA OVER THE PAST 18 MONTHS. WE EXPECT STEADY APPRECIATION IN COMMERCIAL, RESIDENTIAL AND RETAIL LAND VALUES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. -Daryl Carter, President Maury L. Carter & Associates, Inc.
Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates 436 Corridor 3,639,710 91.8% $16.68 1,212,075 100.0% - 1,113,843 96.0% - Altamonte / Douglas 1,785,794 87.6% $15.62 585,626 92.8% $20.00 1,476,471 97.3% $36.39 Casselberry 3,239,693 86.3% $14.13 412,947 100.0% - 1,092,619 90.5% - Downtown 10,974 100.0% - 0 - - 0 - - Kissimmee 2,872,819 92.7% $18.19 425,445 100.0% - 588,463 100.0% - Shopping Center Occupancy Lake County 5,990,278 87.1% $12.23 672,637 98.2% $25.30 1,258,156 92.7% $22.74 92% Lake Mary 2,265,931 90.9% $20.84 0 - - 0 - - 91% Lee Road 469,932 74.2% $10.14 0 - - 0 - - 90% Longwood 965,569 89.4% $11.35 0 - - 0 - - 89% Maitland 681,272 90.5% $14.93 0 - - 0 - - 88% Maitland Center 642,808 89.8% $15.91 895,749 97.1% $19.09 0 - - 87% Metro West 1,251,776 94.6% $15.72 0 - - 0 - - North Outlier 2,339,699 92.1% $12.29 0 - - 152,198 77.7% $21.21 Orlando Airport 99,116 87.1% $20.26 0 - - 0 - - % Occupied Orlando Central Park 2,596,457 88.2% $11.34 760,808 90.7% $11.78 3,070,968 94.3% - Sanford 1,287,692 90.9% $13.83 720,346 94.0% $15.00 1,212,529 99.5% - South Orange 919,131 92.0% $12.56 375,209 94.7% $19.00 0 - - Shopping Center Rental Rates South Outlier 7,161,464 91.1% $17.44 1,397,502 97.9% $15.46 640,414 96.3% $29.00 $18.00 St Cloud 1,001,780 94.9% $12.65 0 - - 0 - - $17.00 Tourist Corridor 5,417,191 89.0% $18.17 558,715 97.8% $17.11 1,341,166 98.3% - University 523,968 90.1% $22.38 0 - - 0 - - $16.00 University Research 223,530 58.9% $20.37 0 - - 0 - - $15.00 West Colonial 4,933,249 88.1% $12.03 958,812 81.7% $12.03 1,505,560 82.3% $9.73 $14.00 West Outlier 1,558,838 94.3% $13.69 0 - - 0 - - West University 1,327,170 94.9% $18.37 1,434,149 93.5% $20.31 0 - - Winter Park 1,128,798 83.9% $17.76 0 - - 534,663 98.7% $26.32 Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 54,334,639 89.6% $14.70 10,410,020 94.9% $15.73 13,987,050 94.2% $12.90 18. DEEP DIVE 5: MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
Unemployment Rates 2.62 million residents 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 1.29 million people in the workforce 7% 6% 5%
$40,095 median household income National Florida Miami-Dade County
Total Retail GLA 65.5 million square feet of retail in MIAMI: AN UPSCALE DESTINATION The Miami-Dade retail real estate market continues to be one of Malls shopping centers, power centers and malls 24% the most dynamic in the world. The market is experiencing record- breaking growth throughout the retail sector, driven by a robust
500,000 square feet of retail delivered to influx of top-shelf national and international retailers coupled with Power booming international tourism. Major retailers continue to seek Centers market in the 12 months ending in Q3 2014 5% space in the Miami-Dade market, as evidenced by IKEA which Shopping Centers opened a massive 416,000 square foot store in Miami, Zara with a 71% 26,000 square foot location on Lincoln Road and Saks Fifth Avenue 660,000 square feet of retail construction starts with a 107,000 square foot lease at Brickell City Centre. in the 12 months ending in Q3 2014 INVESTING TOP DOLLAR FOR THE BEST LOCATIONS AUGUST 2014 Investment sales activity in the Miami MSA was strong and stable during the first three quarters UNEMPLOYMENT of 2014, with sales volume and prices rising steadily quarter-over-quarter. Prime assets and 6.8% matchless locations like Brickell Avenue and South Beach’s Lincoln Road continued to command Down top-of-the-market prices, in some cases exceeding sale prices of $4,000 per square foot. Overall from 8.0% cap rates across the sector showed moderate increases year-over-year from 2013 to 2014. in August Q3 2014 ASSET SALES 2013 VOLUME (Rolling 12 mo.) ROBUST CONSTRUCTION IN THE PIPELINE FOR 2015 $1.16 billion The overall occupancy of retail space across all asset classes in Miami-Dade County exceeds
Q3 2014 AVERAGE Up from 95%, one of the highest levels of any market in the United States. The low retail vacancy rate in CAP RATE $713 million the Miami-Dade market is caused in part by the relatively low amount of new construction being thru delivered to the market in 2014. Only 500,000 square feet of new retail space was delivered 7.5% Q3 2013 during the 12 months ending in the third quarter of 2014. However, there is more than 1.3 million Up 60 square feet under construction with scheduled delivery in 2015. basis pts from Q3 2013 19. MIAMI-DADE COUNTY Pent up demand, particularly for Class A projects, is expected to keep absorption rates PERSPECTIVES FROM PRINCIPALS high throughout 2015. One of the major retail developments planned to open in 2015 is • In speaking with principals who closed retail transactions during 2014, the consensus the Miami Worldcenter, a 765,000 square foot mixed-use private master-planned project was that Miami-Dade retail enjoys some of the healthiest market fundamentals in anchored by Bloomingdale’s (120,000 square feet) and Macy’s (195,000 square feet) with the country. It has a thriving economy driven by international diversity and strong over 450,000 square feet of mall tenant space. growth in population and jobs. The Miami retail market is expected to continue to be strong across all sectors through 2015. • The sellers stated that they expect to see continued demand for quality retail assets in Miami-Dade, but they do not expect significant cap rate compression. Prices for retail assets are at historic highs, and most of the investors struggled to make sense of current yields. • Landlords expect continued demand in the market, particularly for luxury brand retailers. They noted brisk store sales that were on the rise in 2014 and felt optimistic about their ability to push rents higher moving into 2015 and beyond. • Principals noted the prominence of Miami-Dade as an international powerhouse for trade and tourism. They expected considerable competition for quality tenants within the marketplace and continued growth across all retail sectors.
• Area to watch: Downtown, particularly Brickell City Centre and Miami Worldcenter
A rendering of the Bloomingdales anchor in the Mall at Miami Worldcenter Source: The Forbes Company / Taubman
ONE IF BY LAND, TWO IF BY SEA Miami is constantly making improvements to its infrastructure. Construction of the All Aboard Florida passenger rail station in Fort Lauderdale began in October 2014, and service is projected to begin in Miami by late 2016. Phase 2 of All Aboard Florida will link South Florida with the Orlando International Airport in 2017. The economic impact of the project is a hefty $6.4 billion, and it is estimated to create 10,000 construction jobs and 2,200 ongoing jobs by 2021. PortMiami contributes more than $27 billion to Miami’s economy annually, and has been the focus of several major improvements. In late 2013, work was completed to reconnect Florida East Coast Railway with PortMiami. The ship- to-rail link enables shippers to reach 70% of the US population by rail in four days or less. Although delayed, the PortMiami tunnel opened in August 2014 as a direct vehicular link from the port to Interstate 395, bypassing and alleviating cargo- and cruise-related
traffic congestion through downtown. Miami has utilized bus, metrorail and metromover A rendering of the Miami station, released by All Aboard Florida systems for decades as alternatives to driving for residents and visitors, and continues to make those systems more efficient. 20. MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
MIAMI’S BRAND AS A RETAIL AND ENTERTAINMENT “DESTINATION HAS NEVER BEEN“ STRONGER. IT IS A GREAT PLACE TO OPEN A RETAIL BUSINESS WITH A LONG-TERM VIEW IN MIND. -Brian Maloney, Vice President of Leasing Edens
IKEA opened in Sweetwater in late August 2014. The massive array of solar panels on the roof of the 416,000 square foot building can be seen here. Shopping Center Occupancy 96% Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 95% Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Aventura 1,883,612 96.4% $34.31 387,186 100.0% - 3,160,610 100.0% - 94% Biscayne Corridor 551,909 88.3% $30.00 0 - - 0 - - 93% Brickell 155,393 100.0% - 0 - - 0 - - 92% Coconut Grove 508,422 97.6% $39.64 0 - - 199,683 91.5% - Coral Gables 410,098 96.0% $34.79 0 - - 1,046,671 97.9% $45.02 Coral Way 545,890 99.4% $23.56 243,047 95.0% $34.75 0 - - % Occupied Downtown Miami 120,988 90.4% $50.00 0 - - 311,413 97.7% - Hialeah Gardens 1,236,117 94.9% $17.30 0 - - 466,744 93.8% $14.00 Kendall 10,115,003 95.4% $28.72 362,493 99.7% $40.00 3,281,583 96.8% $45.06 Shopping Center Rental Rates Medley / Hialeah 5,313,031 96.6% $20.68 796,413 98.9% $23.69 786,466 100.0% - $30.00 Miami 2,189,070 95.0% $16.11 0 - - 32,711 100.0% - $27.50 Miami Airport 5,512,529 96.4% $25.77 1,018,034 99.3% $30.00 3,216,858 98.4% - Miami Beach 525,489 92.1% $41.44 180,000 98.7% - 1,724,948 97.6% $202.64 $25.00 Miami Lakes 2,542,723 93.9% $22.04 0 - - 0 - - $22.50 NE Dade 5,710,299 93.6% $18.44 0 - - 681,469 95.1% -
$20.00 Outlying Miami-Dade Co 184,907 89.3% $24.07 0 - - 0 - - South Dade 4,514,154 94.4% $19.11 361,785 92.5% $16.00 981,450 96.3% $23.50 West Miami 4,239,497 96.3% $26.41 0 - - 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 46,259,131 95.3% $24.68 3,348,958 98.3% $24.99 15,890,606 97.8% $54.16 21. ALABAMA
Bridge Street Town Centre Huntsville The Shoppes at Eastchase Montgomery
The Summit Birmingham
Springdale Mall Mobile
22. BIRMINGHAM
Unemployment Rates 1.14 million residents 10% AUGUST 2014 9% UNEMPLOYMENT 8% 7% 522,000 people in 6.3% 6% the workforce 6.1% in 5%
August 2013 4% $47,188 median National Alabama Birmingham household income Total Retail GLA
Malls INVESTORS’ INABILITY TO GENERATE A RESPECTABLE 17% 33.5 million square feet of retail in “INCOME ON A SHORT-TERM BASIS PUSHES THEM INTO shopping centers, power centers and malls REAL ESTATE AND THIS KEEPS CAP RATES AT INCREDIBLY LOW LEVELS. THE RETAIL LEASING MARKET CONTINUES TO Power TIGHTEN AND I EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2015. Centers 17% Shopping
Shopping Center Occupancy TENANTS ARE HEALTHIER AND IN EXPANSION MODE AGAIN. Centers
88% THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH DURING THE 66% 87% RECESSION CREATED“ PENT-UP DEMAND. INFILL, URBAN, 86% DENSE AREAS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE STRONGEST 85% RESURGENCE. -Sims Garrison, Chief Financial Officer 84% Fairway Investments 83%
Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 % Occupied Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Bibb County 35,000 100.0% - 0 - - 0 - - Blount County 94,925 95.7% $15.00 0 - - 0 - - Shopping Center Rental Rates Central Birmingham 269,635 95.4% $10.22 0 - - 0 - - $12.00 Chilton County 375,516 83.2% $8.28 0 - - 0 - - $10.50 N Jefferson County 1,586,547 88.7% $7.94 0 - - 0 - - Shelby County 3,548,539 87.5% $12.37 2,109,397 98.1% $19.20 0 - - $9.00 S Jefferson County 7,006,354 88.3% $12.08 1,620,921 97.3% $25.00 4,374,030 83.7% - $7.50 St Clair County 1,204,646 95.3% $9.65 0 - - 0 - - $6.00 Trussville/Center Point 3,095,888 86.9% $7.62 1,420,598 97.4% - 476,235 100.0% - Walker County 963,658 89.5% $7.59 0 - - 424,380 92.0% $9.24 W Jefferson County 4,022,697 83.6% $6.67 336,401 90.2% $20.00 544,406 96.2% - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 22,203,405 87.6% $8.99 5,487,317 97.2% $20.55 5,819,051 86.8% $9.24 23. HUNTSVILLE
Unemployment Rates 436,000 residents AUGUST 2014 10% UNEMPLOYMENT 9% 8% 6.2% 211,00 people in 7% 6% the workforce Up from 5% 5.8% in August 4% 2013
$52,671 median National Alabama Huntsville household income Total Retail GLA GBT REALTY’S INVESTMENT OF OVER $90 MILLION IN THE “HUNTSVILLE MSA SINCE 2010 IS A TESTAMENT TO THE Malls 20% 11.5 million square feet of retail in STRENGTH OF THE MARKET. EMPLOYERS SUCH AS NASA, shopping centers, power centers and malls THE REDSTONE ARSENAL AND REMINGTON CREATE ONE OF THE MOST HIGHLY-EDUCATED AND CONTINUALLY-GROWING WORK FORCES, HELPING THE COMMUNITY THRIVE RATHER Shopping Power Shopping Center Occupancy THAN JUST SURVIVE DURING THE RECENT ECONOMIC Centers Centers 62% 94% STRUGGLES. ANOTHER REASON THE HUNTSVILLE MARKET 18%
92% IS SUCH AN ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY IS
90% THAT IT HAS A STRONG CITY AND COUNTY GOVERNMENT 88% COMMITTED TO PROVIDING THE NEEDED SUPPORT FOR“ SUCH 86% GROWTH THROUGH INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS AND 84% INCENTIVES FOR JOB AND TAX BASE CREATION. -Jeff Pape, Managing Director, Shopping Center Division, GBT Realty Corporation % Occupied Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Shopping Center Rental Rates Athens 714,195 95.1% $7.54 0 - - 0 - - $15.00 Central Business District 4,291 100.0% - 0 - - 0 - - $13.50 Cummings Research Park 763,216 72.8% $10.95 677,267 89.6% - 1,675,324 88.3% $16.54 $12.00 Jetplex / Madison 1,243,400 92.6% $9.16 0 - - 0 - - $10.50 N Huntsville 2,037,292 88.2% $7.20 496,534 94.6% - 0 - - $9.00 N Madison County 382,311 97.4% $8.87 0 - - 0 - - $7.50 Outlying Limestone County 170,714 92.5% $18.75 0 - - 0 - - S Huntsville 1,070,326 97.1% $19.14 645,695 100.0% - 643,135 99.1% - S Madison County 758,132 86.6% $11.79 250,829 62.9% $10.03 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 7,143,877 89.8% $10.41 2,070,325 90.8% $10.03 2,318,459 91.3% $16.54 24. MOBILE
Unemployment Rates 414,000 residents 11% AUGUST 2014 10% UNEMPLOYMENT 9% 8.1% 8% 180,000 people in 7% the workforce 7.9% in 6%
August 2013 5%
$39,353 median National Alabama Mobile household income Total Retail GLA
Malls 10.8 million square feet of retail in 21%
shopping centers, power centers and malls MOBILE’S ECONOMY HAS EXPERIENCED A Power
“RESURGENCE THAT HAS PRIMARILY BEEN Centers
FOCUSED ON THE NATURAL GAS SECTOR AND 4% Shopping Center Occupancy “ RELATED INDUSTRIES. THESE HIGH-PAYING 95% JOB GENERATORS ARE CREATING A FAVORABLE Shopping 93% MARKET FOR RETAILERS. Centers 75% 91% -Richard Alexander, Portfolio Manager 89% Whitney Bank 87% 85%
% Occupied
Shopping Center Rental Rates $13.00 Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 $12.00 Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates $11.00 Cent Business Dist 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - $10.00 Midtown 866,535 86.3% $8.97 0 - - 0 - - $9.00 NE Mobile 177,685 90.8% - 0 - - 0 - - $8.00 Outlying Mobile County 2,845,727 87.1% $9.52 0 - - 0 - - Prichard / Saraland 667,813 82.0% $8.35 0 - - 0 - - W Mobile 3,604,674 86.8% $10.44 392,762 91.0% - 2,283,955 95.8% - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 8,162,434 86.6% $9.91 392,762 91.0% - 2,283,955 95.8% - 25. MONTGOMERY
Unemployment Rates 374,000 residents AUGUST 2014 10% UNEMPLOYMENT 9% 7.4% 8% 165,000 people in 7%
the workforce Up from 6% 7.0% in August 5% 2013
$44,305 median National Alabama Montgomery household income Total Retail GLA
Malls 12.8 million square feet of retail in 22% shopping centers, power centers and malls NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN THE MULTI- “FAMILY AND SINGLE FAMILY SECTORS HAS
REIGNITED ACTIVITY IN THE MARKET. THE ADDITION Power Shopping Center Occupancy Centers Shopping
OF SEVERAL NEW HOTELS ADD TO THE POSITIVE 12% Centers 89% VIBE. RETAILERS“ ARE REPORTING INCREASES IN 66% 88% SALES AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES 87% TO IMPROVE. 86% -Teri Young, Vice President Leasing & Marketing 85% Inland American Management, LLC. 84%
% Occupied
Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 Shopping Center Rental Rates Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates $11.00 Downtown Montgomery 3,381 100.0% - 0 - - 0 - - $10.00 Lowndes Co 9,493 71.6% $11.00 0 - - 0 - - N Montgomery 3,733,595 85.8% $10.33 1,026,494 88.9% $8.28 2,163,373 97.5% $21.04 $9.00 Outlying Autauga Co 19,960 89.5% $8.00 0 - - 0 - - $8.00 Outlying Elmore Co 382,073 93.4% $6.50 0 - - 0 - - $7.00 Outlying Montgomery Co 39,000 36.8% $8.00 0 - - 0 - - Prattville / Millbrook 2,136,138 94.2% $13.07 502,909 100.0% $16.00 594,776 77.3% - S Montgomery 2,188,243 86.1% $5.31 0 - - 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 8,511,883 88.1% $7.85 1,529,403 92.6% $12.68 2,758,149 93.1% $21.04 26. FLORIDA
Governors Crossing II St. Johns Town Center Tallahassee Jacksonville Cordova Mall Pensacola
The Loop Orlando
Channelside Tampa
Town Center at Boca Raton Palm Beach County
Pine Island Marketplace Fort Myers
Galleria Mall Broward County
The Village on Venetian Bay Bal Harbour Shops Naples Miami-Dade County 27. PENSACOLA
Unemployment Rates 467,000 residents AUGUST 2014 11% 10% UNEMPLOYMENT 9% 6.5% 8% 218,000 people in the Down 7% workforce from 7.0% 6% in August 5% 2013 Total Retail GLA $43,681 median National Florida Pensacola household income Malls Power 17% Centers IN PENSACOLA, UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES 0%
11.6 million square feet of retail in “TO FALL WHILE RETAIL OCCUPANCY AND NEW shopping centers, power centers and malls CONSTRUCTION PERMITS ARE UP. WE“ ARE A CITY ON THE MOVE AND WE ARE EXCITED ABOUT PENSACOLA’S UPWARD MOMENTUM. Shopping Center Occupancy -Ashton Hayward Shopping 94% Mayor of Pensacola Centers 92% 83% 90% Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 88% Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates 86% Avalon Beach / Milton 1,373,621 92.8% $13.14 0 - - 84% Central Pensacola / S Brent 1,019,563 91.2% $8.62 0 - - Downtown Pensacola 9,800 100.0% - 0 - - Ensley / N Brent 923,048 85.5% $13.24 0 - - % Occupied Ferry Pass / N Pensacola 2,420,289 92.9% $15.14 1,919,365 81.3% $25.76 Gonzalez / SW Santa Rosa 669,734 86.9% $9.53 0 - - Gulf Breeze 363,015 88.7% $19.54 0 - - Shopping Center Rental Rates Myrtle Grove / Bellview 190,679 76.4% $8.13 0 - - $12.60 Navarre 1,097,693 91.9% $12.87 0 - - $12.40 Pensacola Beach 47,862 100.0% - 0 - - $12.20 Perdido 227,795 92.6% $19.12 0 - - $12.00 $11.80 SE Santa Rosa County 0 - - 0 - - $11.60 Upper Escambria County 0 - - 0 - - $11.40 Upper Santa Rosa County 50,000 100.0% - 0 - - Warrington 325,720 92.0% $13.89 0 - - W Pensacola 945,585 95.6% $8.45 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 9,664,404 91.3% $12.30 1,919,365 81.3% $25.76 28. TALLAHASSEE
Unemployment Rates 373,000 residents 11% AUGUST 2014 10% UNEMPLOYMENT 9% 8% 194,000 people in 6.2% 7% 6% 6.3% in the workforce 5% August 2013 4%
$42,762 median National Florida Tallahassee household income Total Retail GLA
10.5 million square feet of retail in TALLAHASSEE IS POSITIONED FOR CONTINUED GROWTH Malls shopping centers, power centers and malls “IN 2015. WE ARE“ PROJECTING HIGHER STUDENT 24% ENROLLMENT, WHICH BRINGS MORE CONSUMERS TO THE MARKET. Shopping Center Occupancy Power -Shawnta Friday-Stroud, Ph.D. Dean Centers 94.00% 4% School of Business and Industry (SBI) Shopping 92.00% Florida A&M University Centers 72% 90.00% 88.00% 86.00% Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 84.00% Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Downtown Tallahassee 113,844 93.3% $18.00 0 - - 0 - - E Tallahassee 1,306,152 93.6% $13.51 0 - - 1,027,500 99.0% - % Occupied Gadsden County 306,641 79.7% $6.21 0 - - 0 - - Jefferson County 118,074 95.7% $9.50 0 - - 0 - - NE Tallahassee 603,994 98.0% $26.77 0 - - 0 - - Shopping Center Rental Rates NE Leon County 1,982,962 93.9% $15.76 0 - - 0 - - $17.50 NW Leon County 395,594 86.4% $8.18 0 - - 0 - - $15.00 NW Tallahassee 362,692 95.7% $11.22 0 - - 1,548,342 93.5% - SE Tallahassee 472,110 89.0% $9.50 0 - - 0 - - $12.50 SE Leon County 462,031 92.7% $13.07 423,765 100.0% - 0 - - $10.00 SW Leon County 124,279 81.7% $12.86 0 - - 0 - - $7.50 SW Tallahassee 41,160 95.1% - 0 - - 0 - - Wakulla County 155,166 93.3% $14.00 0 - - 0 - - W Tallahassee 1,076,111 93.4% $17.62 0 - - 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 7,520,810 92.6% $13.68 423,765 100.0% - 2,575,842 95.7% $0.00 29. JACKSONVILLE Unemployment Rates 11% 1.39 million residents AUGUST 2014 10% UNEMPLOYMENT 9% 6.6% 8% 7% 736,000 people in the Down workforce from 7.1% 6% in August 5% 2013
$50,691 median National Florida Jacksonville household income Total Retail GLA JACKSONVILLE HAS EMERGED AS A TOP-TIER RETAIL Malls Power 11% “DESTINATION. WE HAVE SEEN OPEN-AIR SHOPPING Centers
49.3 million square feet of retail in CENTERS LIKE THE ST. JOHNS TOWN CENTER AND RIVER CITY 9%
shopping centers, power centers and malls MARKETPLACE GROW EXPONENTIALLY. LUXURY BRANDS STORES SUCH AS NORDSTROM,“ TIFFANY & CO., LOUIS VUITTON, FAB’RIK AND MICHAEL KORS ARE CHOOSING TO Shopping Center Occupancy INVEST IN OUR CITY. -Jerry Mallot, President 92% JAXUSA Partnership Shopping 90% Centers 80% 88% Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 86% Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates 84% Arlington 2,434,800 89.2% $9.87 437,461 85.2% - 1,529,725 91.0% - Baker County 520,416 92.5% $9.50 0 - - 0 - - Beaches 3,363,647 88.0% $16.97 0 - - 0 - - % Occupied Butler / Baymedows 1,415,568 86.6% $12.81 735,572 99.7% $16.00 1,119,045 96.2% - Downtown Northbank 479,767 91.4% $6.00 607,324 72.4% $8.00 0 - - Downtown Southbank 63,537 81.9% $27.50 0 - - 0 - - Shopping Center Rental Rates Mandarin 3,517,011 93.2% $12.16 0 - - 0 - - $16.00 Nassau County 2,314,482 86.0% $14.89 0 - - 0 - - $15.00 NE Jacksonville 1,267,265 80.4% $13.53 943,505 99.3% $22.30 0 - - $14.00 NW Jacksonville 1,284,308 79.4% $8.35 302,137 83.9% $10.67 0 - - $13.00 Orange Park / Clay County 5,470,085 88.3% $12.13 0 - - 959,331 99.2% $17.89 $12.00 Riverside 5,238,393 89.7% $12.70 1,073,842 96.5% $14.68 390,783 77.9% - $11.00 San Marco 1,046,253 79.3% $10.45 0 - - 0 - - Southside 7,316,960 87.8% $12.91 584,133 86.4% $14.61 1,367,544 98.5% $23.70 St. Johns County 3,555,406 93.3% $13.75 0 - - 5,576,281 98.4% - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 39,287,898 88.4% $12.62 4,683,974 91.3% $12.94 5,366,428 94.6% $22.05 30. CAPE CORAL / FORT MYERS
Unemployment Rates 661,000 residents 12% AUGUST 2014 11% UNEMPLOYMENT 10% 6.7% 9% 300,000 people in the 8% Down 7% from 7.4% workforce 6% in August 2013 5%
$48,142 median National Florida Cape Coral, Fort Myers household income Total Retail GLA
Malls 26.9 million square feet of retail in MARKET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN THE FT. 18% shopping centers, power centers and malls “MYERS/CAPE CORAL AREA WITH SLIGHT INCREASES IN QUOTED RENTS, DECREASES IN VACANCY RATES, AND Power ABSORPTION OUTPACING NEW CONSTRUCTION DELIVERIES Centers 10% Shopping Center Occupancy OVER THE PAST 12± MONTHS. NEW RETAIL DEVELOPMENT
92% CONTINUES TO PREDOMINANTLY BE IN THE FORM OF Shopping
90% BUILT-TO-SUIT SINGLE-TENANT NET-LEASED FACILITIES Centers “ 72% 88% WITH LARGER MULTI-TENANT RETAIL DEVELOPMENT 86% RELEGATED TO SELECT, STRATEGICALLY-LOCATED SITES WITH SIGNIFICANT PRE-LEASING. 84% 82% -Martin Engelmann, Jr., MAI, MRICS Tropical Realty Appraisal Services
% Occupied
Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 Shopping Center Rental Rates Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates $20.00 Bonita Springs 2,243,058 80.2% $13.76 0 - - 0 - - $17.50 Cape Coral 3,741,947 90.2% $12.16 1,174,112 76.0% $12.91 0 - - $15.00 City of Fort Myers 2,304,498 84.8% $8.45 515,743 93.0% $14.98 1,101,835 99.7% $20.00 $12.50 Estero 692,620 88.0% $13.33 0 - - 2,137,063 99.4% - $10.00 Lehigh 657,018 92.1% $14.34 0 - - 0 - - $7.50 N Fort Myers 1,495,806 82.4% $8.96 0 - - 0 - - S Fort Myers / San Carlos 7,731,151 88.9% $12.65 1,067,816 95.7% $14.87 1,571,691 93.7% $27.82 The Islands 511,607 99.2% $37.45 0 - - 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 19,377,705 87.5% $11.76 2,757,671 86.8% $13.47 4,810,589 97.6% $22.11 31. NAPLES / MARCO ISLAND
Unemployment Rates 340,000 residents 12% AUGUST 2014 11% UNEMPLOYMENT 10% 9% 6.9% 8% 158,000 people in the 7% Down workforce from 7.9% 6% in August 5% 2013 4%
$53,051 median National Florida Naples, Marco Island household income Total Retail GLA
Malls 14.1 million square feet of retail in 17%
shopping centers, power centers and malls
Power Centers “ 6% Shopping Center Occupancy HIGH-END RETAIL IN NAPLES COMPARES WITH 95% “HIGH-END RETAIL ACROSS THE COUNTRY. 93% -Greg Smersh, Ph.D., Professor of Finance and Shopping Centers 91% Real Estate, MUMA College of Business 77% University of South Florida 89%
87%
% Occupied
Shopping Center Rental Rates Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 $22.00 Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates $20.00 East Naples 2,228,030 87.0% $14.31 0 - - 0 - - $18.00 Golden Gate 642,271 95.6% $14.15 0 - - 0 - - $16.00 Lely 787,737 80.5% $13.96 0 - - 0 - - $14.00 Marco Island 761,768 96.5% $19.49 0 - - 0 - - $12.00 Naples 494,734 94.4% $18.21 0 - - 935,350 97.3% - North Naples 5,539,035 92.2% $17.21 862,236 92.2% $23.71 1,463,403 93.2% $21.20 Outlying Collier Co 345,200 80.3% $18.34 0 - - 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 10,798,775 90.5% $16.12 862,236 92.2% $23.71 2,398,753 94.8% $21.20 32. PALM BEACH COUNTY
Unemployment Rates 1.37 million residents 12% AUGUST 2014 11% UNEMPLOYMENT 10% 6.6% 9% 667,000 people in the 8% Down workforce 7% from 7.8% 6% in August 2013 5%
$50,748 median National Florida Palm Beach County household income Total Retail GLA
Malls 19%
48.9 million square feet of retail in TOTAL VACANCY RATE STANDS AT ABOUT 7.5% AND
shopping centers, power centers and malls “LEASE RATES [ARE] INCREASING: 2015 HAS A BRIGHT “ Power FUTURE FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY RETAIL MARKET. Centers NET ABSORPTION OF RETAIL SPACE CONTINUES TO 8% Shopping Center Occupancy CLIMB AS MARKET FUNDAMENTALS IMPROVE. 92% Shopping -Patrick Koenig, President Centers 91% Flagler Realty and Development 73% 90% 89% 88% 87% Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Boca Raton East 1,954,647 92.0% $21.06 0 - - 317,695 91.3% $29.15 % Occupied Boca Raton North 112,465 97.6% $33.19 0 - - 0 - - Boca Raton West 2,867,235 94.2% $26.49 227,345 100.0% - 1,743,557 99.9% $40.00 Boynton / Lantana 5,034,118 90.3% $16.52 1,316,060 90.2% $15.03 1,286,134 99.3% $18.72 Shopping Center Rental Rates Delray Beach 3,066,855 90.6% $17.00 993,262 97.9% $30.54 264,982 86.0% -
$22.00 Jupiter 2,942,541 92.9% $17.82 0 - - 0 - - North Palm Beach 4,092,348 90.7% $14.68 395,299 94.8% - 1,821,902 96.6% $0.27 $20.00 Palm Beach Co, Outlying 2,450,410 93.8% $18.98 0 - - 0 - - $18.00 Palm Beach 137,636 61.4% $41.72 0 - - 149,187 98.5% $30.00 $16.00 Palm Springs / Lake Worth 1,323,072 90.7% $10.85 0 - - 1,273,000 100.0% - $14.00 Royal Palm Bch / Wellington 4,066,356 89.7% $17.22 844,618 89.0% $14.74 1,209,527 100.0% - West Palm Beach CBD 59,279 100.0% $20.00 0 - - 1,209,527 100.0% - West Palm Beach 7,709,839 88.6% $14.52 0 - - 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 35,816,801 90.7% $17.01 3,776,584 93.0% $17.68 9,275,511 98.3% $26.32 33. BROWARD COUNTY
Unemployment Rates 1.84 million residents AUGUST 2014 11% 10% UNEMPLOYMENT 9% 5.7% 8% 1.07 million people in the 7% Down 6% workforce from 6.2% 5% in August 4% 2013
$48,593 median National Florida Broward County household income Total Retail GLA 63.6 million square feet of retail in Malls CONTINUED JOB GAINS AND A BUSINESS-FRIENDLY 13% shopping centers, power centers and malls
“CLIMATE ARE KEY FACTORS IN RETAIL EXPANSION IN Power Centers
BROWARD COUNTY. BROWARD COUNTY GOVERNMENT 11% HAS INITIATED A PROCESS TO UPDATE “ ITS Shopping Center Occupancy COMPREHENSIVE PLAN AND LAND USE PLAN, WHICH 93% WILL FURTHER SUPPORT ECONOMIC GROWTH. 92% -Davon Barbour, Director, Community and Shopping 91% Economic Development Centers 90% 76% 89% City of Hollywood 88% 87% Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates % Occupied Commercial Blvd 794,243 92.8% $14.63 248,718 100.0% - 0 - - Cypress Creek 1,391,957 92.2% $13.58 0 - - 0 - - Downtown Ft Lauderdale 991,409 96.3% $26.76 0 - - 1,227,477 80.6% - Shopping Center Rental Rates Ft Lauderdale 5,921,019 90.6% $17.94 620,676 100.0% - 463,924 86.2% $12.19 $20.00 Hallandale 1,651,811 91.1% $22.81 341,366 100.0% - 535,717 93.2% - $19.00 Hollywood 4,671,439 92.6% $19.20 2,090,685 99.4% $31.45 163,179 54.2% - NW Broward / Coral Sprgs 8,358,204 91.7% $17.48 0 - - 1,037,203 98.8% $30.00 $18.00 Outlying Broward County 510,509 92.6% $18.22 0 - - 0 - - $17.00 Plantation 7,101,760 89.8% $17.58 1,112,828 87.6% - 1,295,384 76.8% - $16.00 Pompano Beach 8,082,004 89.5% $18.79 1,206,912 94.6% $16.32 169,498 93.6% $34.28 Sawgrass Park 1,194,165 97.2% $23.40 0 - - 2,405,793 95.4% - Southwest Broward 7,642,570 91.9% $23.02 1,129,875 91.5% $20.00 1,272,570 98.3% $23.66 Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 48,311,090 91.3% $18.95 6,751,060 95.4% $19.57 8,570,745 89.9% $16.72 34. INSIGHTS FROM OTHER FLORIDA MARKETS
THE GROWTH OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA AND SANTA FE COLLEGE THE GREATER DAYTONA BEACH RETAIL COMMERCIAL
ARE LEADING TO AN APARTMENT AND CONDO BOOM - INCLUDING
“ REAL ESTATE MARKET FUNDAMENTALS GREW SUBSTANTIAL FIRST-FLOOR RETAIL SPACE IN NEW, MULTI-STORY “
“ STRONGER IN 2014. LANDLORDS WITH WELL-
URBAN-STYLE DEVELOPMENTS. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS INCLUDE POSITIONED RETAIL CENTERS SAW LEASING CELEBRATION POINTE AND A MAJOR EXPANSION OF BUTLER PLAZA, “ ACTIVITY INCREASE, CREATING AN OPPORTUNITY ONE OF THE SOUTHEAST’S LARGEST POWER CENTERS. TO RAISE NNN RENTS FOR NEW AND RENEWING -Steven Kirn, Ph.D. Executive Director, Miller TENANTS. Center for Retailing, Warrington College of -Patrick Opalewski, CCIM, Vice President Business, University of Florida Root Real Estate
WE ARE EXCITED ABOUT THE FUTURE. GROWTH IN THE VILLAGES “REMAINS STEADY; IT IS NOW IN ITS FINAL PHASE OF RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION. THE DEVELOPMENT INCLUDES OVER 4 MILLION SQUARE
FEET OF COMMERCIAL SPACE WITHIN ITS BOUNDARY, BOASTING AN
OCCUPANCY RATE GREATER THAN 98%. PUBLIX RECENTLY OPENED ITS SIXTH STORE IN THE VILLAGES, AND“ THERE ARE OTHER GREAT TENANTS OPENING IN THE FUTURE, INCLUDING TOMMY BAHAMA, EVELYN & ARTHUR AND WORLD OF BEER. -Scott Renick, Director, Commercial Sales and Leasing, The Villages
WE ARE FINDING THAT THERE IS A GREAT DEMAND IN THE CASUAL OUR MBA CLASS HAS BEEN STUDYING LAKELAND REAL “DINING CATEGORY. OUR DEVELOPMENT, CORTEZ COMMONS, “ESTATE STATISTICS ALL SEMESTER FOR DRUMMOND
IN SPRING HILL IS DELIVERING BONEFISH GRILL, CHILI’S, BOB AS WE ATTEMPT TO MAKE AN INFORMED ‘HIGHEST
EVANS AND MOE’S SOUTHWEST GRILL, WITH OVERSUBSCRIBED AND BEST USE’ RECOMMENDATION FOR THEIR 226-
DEMAND. SO MUCH SO THAT“ WE ARE LAUNCHING CORTEZ WEST, ACRE SOUTH VILLAGE PARCEL. EVERY SECTOR OTHER WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SATISFY TENANT DEMAND FOR THAN OFFICE HAS SHOWN TO BE PROMISING, WITH “ ANOTHER 600 SEATS. -Michael Collard, President LOWER THAN AVERAGE VACANCY RATES, INCREASING Collard Properties ABSORPTION RATES AND SLOWLY RISING PRICES. -Chuck DuVal, Ph.D. Finance MBA Director NATIONWIDE: Barnett School of Business & Free Enterprise [WE ARE SEEING] NEW SUPPLY AT LEVELS THAT ARE SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW HISTORIC Florida Southern College
“NORMS TOGETHER WITH ROBUST TENANT DEMAND, PARTICULARLY FOR HIGH
QUALITY CENTERS LOCATED IN INFILL TRADE AREAS. [THESE FORCES] ARE PROVIDING TAIL WINDS FOR STRONG FUNDAMENTALS. AS LONG AS THE ECONOMY IS ABLE TO“ GENERATE EVEN MODEST GROWTH THESE TRENDS WILL TRANSLATE INTO FURTHER OCCUPANCY GAINS AND RENT INCREASES IN MARKETS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. -Hap Stein, Chairman and CEO Regency Centers 35. GEORGIA
Augusta Exchange Augusta
Buckhead Atlanta
Savannah Mall Savannah Columbus Park Crossing Columbus
36. AUGUSTA
Unemployment Rates 580,000 residents AUGUST 2014 11% UNEMPLOYMENT 10% 9% 8.0% 8% 263,000 people in the Down 7% workforce from 8.3% 6% in August 5% 2013
$42,013 median National Georgia Augusta household income Total Retail GLA 15.5 million square feet of retail in THE AUGUSTA RETAIL MARKET IS ENJOYING Malls shopping centers, power centers and malls “CONTINUED EXPANSION FOLLOWING THE Power 11%
ANNOUNCED CONSOLIDATION OF ARMY CYBER Centers 9%
COMMAND AT FORT GORDON. RECENT MARKET Shopping Center Occupancy ENTRANTS INCLUDE WHOLE FOODS, DSW, GANDER“ 91% MOUNTAIN AND CABELA’S, WHILE KROGER AND WAL- MART HAVE ADDED NEW LOCATIONS. 90% -John Gibson 89% Vireo Group Shopping Centers 88% 80% 87%
% Occupied Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Burke Co 126,000 100.0% - 0 - - 0 - - Shopping Center Rental Rates Downtown Augusta 203,510 90.2% $16.50 0 - - 0 - - $13.00 Edgefield Co 109,941 100.0% - 0 - - 0 - - $12.00 Evans / Martinez 2,067,907 94.8% $9.49 0 - - 0 - - $11.00 McDuffie Co 311,170 75.7% $8.40 0 - - 0 - - $10.00 N Augusta 1,502,280 86.6% $8.13 0 - - 0 - - $9.00 N Richmond 2,027,864 88.9% $11.53 1,119,679 91.7% $16.20 0 - - $8.00 Outlying Aiken Co 2,370,159 90.6% $10.65 0 - - 386,791 93.0% - Outlying Columbia Co 1,040,346 96.8% $16.11 0 - - 0 - - S Richmond Co 2,659,243 87.3% $7.77 320,965 88.2% - 1,215,460 99.3% - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 12,418,420 90.2% $9.70 1,440,644 90.9% $16.20 1,602,251 97.8% $0.00 37. COLUMBUS
Unemployment Rates 317,000 residents AUGUST 2014 11% UNEMPLOYMENT 10% 9% 8.9% 8% 128,000 people in the 7% workforce Up from 6% 8.5% in August 5% 2013
$39,122 median National Georgia Columbus household income Total Retail GLA
Malls 8.15 million square feet of retail in 25% shopping centers, power centers and malls COLUMBUS IS UNDER-RETAILED IN MY OPINION. “ THE MARKET HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH DUE
TO THE INCREASE IN RESIDENTIAL BUILDING
Shopping Center Occupancy Power Shopping THERE. WITH THE STRONG ECONOMIC FINANCIAL Centers Centers “ 8% 97% RESOURCES IN THE AREA, COLUMBUS SHOULD BE 67% 95% ON THE EXPANSION LIST FOR EVERY RETAILER AND 93% RESTAURANT. 91% -Wes Lewis, SVP, Asset Manager, Director 89% of Development, Adams Brokerage Co., LLC 87% 85%
% Occupied
Shopping Center Rental Rates Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 $13.00 Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates $12.00 Columbus CBD 4,136 47.5% - 0 - - 0 - - $11.00 Chattahoochee Co 20,000 100.0% - 0 - - 0 - - $10.00 Greater Columbus 4,728,355 88.3% $12.59 673,157 98.1% $15.00 2,058,802 94.4% $28.67 $9.00 Harris Co 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - $8.00 Marion Co 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - Phenix City 662,629 95.3% $12.00 0 - - 0 - - Russell Co 7,200 47.2% - 0 - - 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 5,422,320 89.1% $12.59 673,157 98.1% $15.00 2,058,802 94.4% $28.67 38. SAVANNAH
Unemployment Rates 366,000 residents 11% AUGUST 2014 10% UNEMPLOYMENT 9% 8% 183,000 people in the 7.8% 7% workforce 7.6% in 6% 5% August 2013
$47,842 median National Georgia Savannah household income Total Retail GLA
Malls 10.5 million square feet of retail in 19%
shopping centers, power centers and malls
Power SAVANNAH IS A THRIVING MARKET WITH “ Centers 8% Shopping Center Occupancy “BARRIERS OF ENTRY TO MANY RETAILERS 95% THAT WOULD LIKE TO CALL THE CITY HOME. Shopping 93% -Adam Garfunkel, Acquisitions Analyst Centers 73% 91% David Garfunkel & Company, LLC. 89% 87% 85%
% Occupied Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Shopping Center Rental Rates Bloomingdale / Pooler 709,696 91.7% $12.65 300,000 100.0% - 0 - - $18.00 Bryan County 549,539 86.9% $15.56 0 - - 0 - - $16.50 Downtown Savannah 171,641 100.0% $13.33 0 - - 0 - - Effingham County 621,586 90.6% $17.95 0 - - 0 - - $15.00 Greater Savannah 4,026,281 91.8% $15.62 440,527 99.3% $0.30 1,809,133 98.8% - $13.50 N Savannah / Garden City 472,701 86.8% $11.32 141,132 100.0% - 146,305 100.0% -
$12.00 Outer Islands 317,815 91.4% $18.76 0 - - 0 - - Outlying Chatham County 677,779 75.2% $11.32 0 - - 0 - - Port Wentworth 96,112 91.1% $13.00 0 - - 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 7,643,150 89.7% $13.93 881,659 99.7% $30.00 1,955,438 98.9% $0.00 39. NORTH CAROLINA
Friendly Center Greensboro Streets at Southpoint Durham
Hanes Mall Winston-Salem Triangle Town Center Raleigh
Steele Creek Crossing Charlotte 40. GREENSBORO / WINSTON-SALEM
GB: 741,000 residents Unemployment Rates 12% W-S: 651,000 residents 11% 10% 9% GB: 364,000 people in the workforce 8% 7% W-S: 238,000 people in the workforce 6% 5% Total Retail GLA
$43,129 median household income National North Carolina Greensboro Winston-Salem Malls 19%
Power AUGUST 2014 UNEMPLOYMENT Centers 42.2 million square feet of retail in GB: 7.3% W-S: 6.6% 6% shopping centers, power centers and malls Down Down from 8.3% from 7.4% Shopping in August in August Centers Shopping Center Occupancy 75% 2013 2013 91% 90%
89% GREENSBORO HAS MADE A SHIFT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS, WITH MORE OF THE 88% “ “WORKFORCE CONSISTING OF RETAIL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES AND LESS IN THE 87% MANUFACTURING SECTOR. THE RETAIL SECTOR IS BECOMING MORE ROBUST AS IT 86% EMERGES FROM THE GREAT RECESSION. -Mark Thompson, Managing Director, Investment Sales % Occupied Crossman & Company
Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 Shopping Center Rental Rates Submarket Cluster Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates $12.00 Davidson County 2,740,018 91.2% $10.03 453,648 95.9% - 0 - - $11.50 Davie County 594,213 71.0% $7.86 250,093 99.5% $17.00 0 - - Forsyth County 9,426,268 91.0% $11.49 842,952 99.6% - 2,298,932 98.5% - $11.00 Guilford County 13,909,147 88.1% $11.32 948,923 96.1% - 5,159,554 95.5% $24.16 $10.50 Randolph County 1,912,567 94.2% $11.93 0 - - 439,196 92.4% - $10.00 Rockingham County 2,392,679 76.5% $6.22 203,196 100.0% - 0 - - Stokes County 372,529 95.1% $7.27 0 - - 0 - - Yadkin County 285,773 99.5% $17.50 0 - - 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 31,633,194 88.6% $10.80 2,698,812 97.8% $17.00 7,897,682 96.2% $24.16 41. RALEIGH / DURHAM
R: 1.21 million residents Unemployment Rates 11% D: 535,000 residents 10% 9% 8% R: 622,000 people in the workforce 7% 6% D: 272,000 people in the workforce 5% 4% Total Retail GLA
Malls 17% $55,120 median household income National North Carolina Raleigh Durham AUGUST 2014 UNEMPLOYMENT Power R: 5.7% D: 5.7% Centers Shopping 19% Centers 59.7 million square feet of retail in Down Down 64% from 6.3% from 6.2% shopping centers, power centers and malls in August in August 2013 2013
Shopping Center Occupancy
92.0% WE ARE SEEING A CAUTIOUS EXPANSION: THERE ARE TWO CAR DEALERSHIPS UNDER 91.5% “CONSTRUCTION, AND THE STREETS“ AT SOUTHPOINT MALL HAS EXPERIENCED A 40% 91.0% INCREASE IN THE REVENUE PER SQUARE FOOT. THOSE ARE POSITIVE INDICATORS OF THE 90.5% OVERALL MARKET HEALTH. -Ted Conner, Vice President of Economic 90.0% 89.5% Development and Community Sustainability, 89.0% Durham Chamber of Commerce
Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 % Occupied Submarket Cluster Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Chatham County 1,039,527 88.5% $12.56 0 - - 0 - - Durham County 4,896,083 89.9% $11.68 2,504,685 98.4% $16.00 2,267,960 96.6% - Shopping Center Rental Rates East Wake County 5,973,499 89.4% $14.84 1,524,226 90.7% $15.28 0 - - $16.50 Franklin County 760,074 85.2% $12.99 0 - - 0 - - $16.00 Glenwood / Creedmoor 2,970,751 94.1% $14.87 398,384 96.9% - 1,611,820 100.0% - $15.50 Johnston County 2,756,629 92.6% $12.63 0 - - 561,508 92.6% $13.67 $15.00 North Raleigh 6,722,261 92.4% $14.99 1,763,808 92.7% $16.80 3,352,690 98.8% $11.36 $14.50 Orange County 1,620,862 91.2% $18.02 372,005 97.6% $17.00 554,349 85.9% - $14.00 Person County 604,574 97.6% $14.06 0 - - 0 - - $13.50 Raleigh 1,660,535 89.9% $11.71 0 - - 565,833 99.9% - RTP / RDU 1,230,765 94.7% $20.99 963,751 99.7% $28.00 260,211 45.5% - Average Rental Rate West Wake County 8,206,829 93.0% $17.12 3,546,987 96.3% $27.42 982,226 99.1% - Total / Averages 38,442,389 91.6% $14.87 11,073,846 95.8% $16.85 10,156,597 96.2% $12.60 42. SOUTH CAROLINA
Magnolia Park Greenville Tanger North Outlet Mall Myrtle Beach
Target Center Columbia The Shops at Belmond Charleston Place Charleston
43. CHARLESTON
Unemployment Rates 712,000 residents AUGUST 2014 11% 10% UNEMPLOYMENT 9% 6.2% 8% 7% 339,000 people in the Down 6% workforce from 6.6% 5% in August 4% 2013 3%
$50,420 median Total Retail GLA National South Carolina Charleston Malls 10% household income Power Centers 11% 20.7 million square feet of retail in IN 2015, KIMCO REALTY WILL COMMENCE
shopping centers, power centers and malls
“REDEVELOPMENT OF OUR WESTWOOD PLAZA CENTER ON SAM RITTENBURGH PARKWAY: WE “ ARE CONFIDENT IN THE LONG-TERM GROWTH Shopping Shopping Center Occupancy Centers 91.0% AND STRENGTH OF THE CHARLESTON MARKET. 79% -Paul Puma, President, Southern Region 90.5% Kimco Realty 90.0%
89.5%
89.0%
% Occupied Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Dorchester County 2,468,143 84.7% $15.87 0 - - 0 - - Shopping Center Rental Rates Downtown Charleston 242,378 96.5% $31.52 0 - - 0 - - $14.50 E Charleston County 1,977 100.0% - 0 - - 0 - - $14.00 East Islands / Mt Pleasant 3,656,065 91.2% $18.76 0 - - 0 - - Greater Charleston 3,211,795 88.6% $12.82 0 - - 1,316,524 99.8% - $13.50 James Island / Folly Beach 960,129 97.4% $13.91 0 - - 0 - - $13.00 N Charleston 2,735,360 91.8% $11.60 1,422,475 90.7% $17.07 784,715 97.8% - $12.50 Outlying Berkeley County 2,566,786 91.3% $11.36 897,246 100.0% - 0 - - W Charleston County 156,492 90.1% $11.27 0 - - 0 - - West Islands 251,439 96.8% $13.35 0 - - 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 16,250,564 90.3% $14.35 2,319,721 94.3% $17.07 2,101,239 99.0% $0.00 44. COLUMBIA
Unemployment Rates 794,000 residents 11% AUGUST 2014 10% UNEMPLOYMENT 9% 6.6% 8% 375,000 people in the 7% Down 6% workforce from 7.2% 5% in August 4% 2013 Total Retail GLA
$48,885 median National South Carolina Columbia Malls household income 25% WE’RE GOING TO HAVE ABOUT 3,000 PEOPLE LIVING “ AROUND THE INTERSECTION OF HUGER AND BLOSSOM AND Shopping 23.7 million square feet of retail in Power
ANOTHER 3,000 LIVING NEAR THE RIVER, [IN ESTIMATING AN Centers Centers
64% shopping centers, power centers and malls APARTMENT PROJECT PLANNED ON THE CAYCE RIVERFRONT 11% AT THE SITE OF AN OLD MOTEL].“ I THINK THAT’S GOING TO DRIVE A LOT MORE ANCILLARY DEVELOPMENT TO PROVIDE Shopping Center Occupancy SERVICES LIKE RETAIL. -Fred Delk, Executive Director 93% Columbia Development Corporation, reprinted with 92% permission from The State newspaper 91% Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 90% Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates 89% Cayce / W Columbia 2,253,557 85.0% $8.86 0 - - 0 - - Columbia CBD 108,320 95.4% - 0 - - 0 - - Dutch Fork / Irmo 1,664,974 89.7% $13.21 0 - - 823,986 96.4% - % Occupied Fairfield County 200,011 70.1% $7.98 0 - - 0 - - Forest Acres 856,945 93.3% $12.93 530,780 98.8% $18.00 876,133 55.6% $9.99 Kershaw County 1,202,778 88.1% $4.94 0 - - 0 - - Shopping Center Rental Rates Lexington 2,009,883 97.3% $15.97 222,000 100.0% - 0 - - $12.00 N Columbia 588,451 89.5% $10.31 0 - - 0 - - $11.50 NE Columbia 3,129,887 92.1% $11.38 453,478 83.1% $7.00 3,547,444 90.2% $22.31 $11.00 Outlying Calhoun Co 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - $10.50 Outlying Lexington Co 252,758 83.6% $5.02 0 - - 0 - - $10.00 Outlying Richland Co 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - $9.50 Saluda County 53,821 67.5% $4.31 0 - - 0 - - SE Columbia 1,202,606 90.9% $11.99 252,510 99.7% $30.00 0 - - St Andrews 1,795,184 87.9% $9.78 1,109,763 97.2% $17.37 588,039 90.1% $17.50 Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 15,319,175 90.1% $10.32 2,568,531 95.6% $9.20 5,835,602 85.9% $14.88 45. GREENVILLE / SPARTANBURG
GV: 851,000 residents Unemployment Rates 12% SB: 319,000 residents 11% 10% 9% 8% GV: 321,000 people in the workforce 7% 6% SB: 139,000 people in the workforce 5% 4% 3% Total Retail GLA $42,365 median household income National South Carolina Greenville Spartanburg Malls 19% AUGUST 2014 UNEMPLOYMENT
GV: 6.1% SB: 6.7% Power 40.2 million square feet of retail in Centers Down Down 10% shopping centers, power centers and malls from 6.7% from 7.6% in August in August Shopping Centers 2013 2013 71% Shopping Center Occupancy 90.0% 89.5% 89.0% IT IS ALMOST AS IF THE GREAT RECESSION COMPLETELY OVERLOOKED THE GREATER
88.5% “GREENVILLE / SPARTANBURG MSA. THIS REGION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP,
88.0% BOTH MACRO-ECONOMICALLY AND IN RETAIL REAL ESTATE FUNDAMENTALS. SINCE 87.5% 1999, IT HAS BEEN GROWING AND DOING“ SO VERY WISELY BY AVOIDING PITFALLS 87.0% SEEN IN SIMILAR MARKETS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST. LOOK FOR MORE GOOD THINGS TO HAPPEN IN THE REGION. -Daniel M. Taub, Chief Operating Officer % Occupied DLC Management Corporation
Shopping Center Rental Rates $11.00 Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 $10.50 Submarket Cluster Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates $10.00 Anderson County 4,748,937 86.8% $6.67 899,911 97.8% $11.19 801,151 100.0% - $9.50 Greenville County 13,686,981 90.7% $10.54 1,835,272 97.3% $16.68 1,376,230 99.3% - $9.00 Laurens County 864,255 84.0% $4.96 0 - - 0 - - $8.50 $8.00 Pickens County 2,008,248 84.6% $8.98 308,637 98.7% - 551,941 99.3% - Spartanburg County 6,790,531 85.9% $8.12 868,918 89.6% - 1,122,602 99.1% - Union County 462,787 93.9% $5.65 0 - - 3,851,924 99.4% - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 28,561,739 88.3% $8.80 3,912,738 95.8% $13.87 7,703,848 99.4% $0.00 46. MYRTLE BEACH
Unemployment Rates 405,000 residents AUGUST 2014 14% 13% UNEMPLOYMENT 12% 11% 6.6% 10% 139,000 people in the 9% Down 8% workforce from 7.6% 7% in August 6% 5% 2013
$41,982 median National South Carolina Myrtle Beach household income Total Retail GLA
Malls 16.4 million square feet of retail in 22% shopping centers, power centers and malls BESIDES THE OBVIOUS GROWTH IN TOURISM AND
“ CONSTRUCTION JOBS, THERE HAS BEEN A PICKUP IN Power
RETAIL BUSINESS [AS WELL]. I ESTIMATE THAT WE’VE Centers Shopping Center Occupancy SEEN A 20 PERCENT“ INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF 9% 92% PEOPLE LOOKING AT NEW OR EXPANDED COMMERCIAL Shopping Centers 91% VENTURES. 69% 90% -Tommy Bouchette, South Carolina President 89% BNC Bank, reprinted with permission from 88% The Sun News newspaper 87% 86%
% Occupied
Shopping Center Rents & Occupancy Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 $15.00 Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates $14.00 Brunswick County 2,601,230 89.6% $11.02 0 - - 0 - - $13.00 Conway 895,843 85.4% $8.31 444,672 96.8% - 0 - - $12.00 Downtown Myrtle Beach 597,298 86.9% $16.84 0 - - 427,140 100.0% - $11.00 Greater Myrtle Beach 1,817,108 86.5% $10.24 0 - - 1,386,580 99.5% $15.78 $10.00 North Myrtle Beach 1,409,154 91.5% $12.25 462,396 99.0% - 524,142 100.0% - Outlying Horry County 3,376,583 90.9% $10.60 0 - - 484,640 64.2% - Socastee / Red Hill 684,346 94.2% $10.28 527,969 99.0% $0.22 796,371 38.6% - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 11,381,562 89.6% $10.66 1,435,037 98.3% $21.84 3,618,873 81.5% $15.78 47. TENNESSEE
Turkey Creek Knoxville
Opry Mills Nashville
Northgate Mall Chattanooga Shops of Saddle Creek Memphis
48. CHATTANOOGA
Unemployment Rates 542,000 residents AUGUST 2014 10%
UNEMPLOYMENT 9% 7.3% 8% 7% 253,000 people in the Down workforce from 7.9% 6% in August 2013 5%
$42,352 median National Tennessee Chattanooga household income
15.9 million square feet of retail in CITY CENTER AND RIVERFRONT CURRENTLY HAVE Total Retail GLA
shopping centers, power centers and malls “THE MOST POTENTIAL TO ESTABLISH STRONG RETAIL Malls
10% OFFERINGS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT FOOT TRAFFIC FROM Power “ Centers Shopping Center Occupancy VISITORS AND EMPLOYEES. THESE TWO AREAS ALREADY 11% HAVE A CRITICAL MASS OF RETAIL AND RESTAURANTS 95% THAT WILL HELP IN ATTRACTING OTHER QUALITY TENANTS. 93% -Erin Talkington 92% RCLCO Real Estate Advisors 90% Shopping 89% Centers 87% 79%
Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 % Occupied Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Catoosa County 1,358,824 90.3% $11.64 0 - - 0 - - Chattanooga CBD 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - Shopping Center Rental Rates Dade County 61,604 100.0% - 0 - - 0 - - $11.00 E Chattanooga 96,814 100.0% - 0 - - 0 - - $10.50 Marion County 568,103 96.3% $10.24 0 - - 0 - - $10.00 N Chattanooga 683,346 80.2% $7.86 0 - - 0 - - $9.50 Outlying Chattanooga 4,782,805 85.3% $8.64 1,074,210 99.4% - 2,131,137 94.4% $7.04 $9.00 $8.50 Outlying Hamilton Co 2,744,381 91.0% $8.43 408,190 93.4% - 936,218 88.3% $10.00 $8.00 Sequatchie County 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - S Chattanooga 375,911 95.6% $16.59 0 - - 0 - - Walker County 658,020 88.9% $8.61 0 - - 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 11,329,808 88.3% $8.84 1,482,400 97.8% $0.00 3,067,355 92.5% $7.51 49. KNOXVILLE
Unemployment Rates 853,000 residents 10% AUGUST 2014 UNEMPLOYMENT 9% 8% 6.4% 7% 357,000 people in the Down 6% workforce from 7.2% 5% in August 4% 2013 Total Retail GLA $43,994 median Malls National Tennessee Knoxville 16% household income THE KNOXVILLE MARKET HAS SEEN A SURGE IN RETAIL DEVELOPMENT Power “OVER THE LAST 2 YEARS. PUBLIX ENTERED THE MARKET PLACE WITH Centers
27.4 million square feet of retail in 3 NEW STORES. THEIR COMPETITION HAS COUNTERED WITH NEW 14%
AND REMODELED STORES. REI HAS ALSO COME INTO THE MARKET, Shopping shopping centers, power centers and malls ANCHORING A CENTER OFF“ KINGSTON PIKE WITH WHOLE FOODS. THE Centers SPORTING GOODS STORE IS OPEN WITH THE WHOLE FOODS SLATED TO 70% OPEN SPRING OF 2015. Shopping Center Occupancy -William Hanks CWH Real Estate Services, LLC. 90.5% 90.0% Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 89.5% Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates 89.0% Anderson County 1,945,647 89.9% $11.70 0 - - 859,860 49.4% $14.72 88.5% Bearden / Papermill / W Town 1,940,970 94.8% $16.68 852,963 97.9% $14.00 1,685,384 98.2% $6.40 88.0% Blount County 2,137,543 92.6% $11.89 0 - - 458,563 98.2% - Campbell County 779,777 94.6% $6.00 0 - - 0 - - Campbell Station / Farragut 1,706,771 83.7% $10.82 394,753 100.0% - 172,615 92.2% $22.00 % Occupied Cedar Bluff / Walker Springs 782,283 96.1% $12.06 637,187 97.4% - 0 - - Downtown Knoxville 234,868 80.1% $25.26 0 - - 0 - - E Knoxville 308,251 80.4% $10.81 0 - - 1,333,279 91.4% - Shopping Center Rental Rates Grainger County 9,504 100.0% - 0 - - 0 - - $12.00 Loudon County 646,718 89.8% $17.25 242,386 100.0% - 0 - - $11.00 Morgan County 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - North / Broadway 4,901,913 88.4% $9.28 588,209 98.6% $27.00 0 - - $10.00 North / Emory Road 224,009 64.3% $8.94 0 - - 0 - - $9.00 Pellissippi / Lovell 1,020,438 97.9% $20.68 677,318 81.6% $6.95 0 - - Roane County 875,719 89.3% $6.46 0 - - 0 - - $8.00 S Knoxville 1,458,140 78.8% $6.11 360,041 100.0% - 0 - - Union County 117,114 87.7% - 0 - - 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 19,089,665 89.0% $10.30 3,752,857 95.6% $8.34 4,509,701 86.6% $11.94 50. Unemployment Rates MEMPHIS 11% 10% 1.34 million 9% residents 8% 7% 6% 585,000 people 5% in the workforce National Tennessee Memphis Total Retail GLA Power Shopping Centers Centers WITH THE INFLUX OF NEW ORGANIC GROCERY LOCATIONS SUCH AS 16% $45,270 median AUGUST 2014 75% SPROUTS FARMERS MARKET, THE FRESH MARKET AND WHOLE FOODS, household income “ UNEMPLOYMENT
MEMPHIS RETAIL CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF RECOVERY. LOCAL Malls
GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO MAKE STRIDES IN LURING NEW JOBS TO 8.5% 9% THE CITY AND THAT“ BODES WELL FOR ALL SECTORS Down 42.1 million square feet of retail in OF THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET GOING from 9.5% INTO 2015. -Bev Ricks, CRX, CLS, CSM, Owner and in August shopping centers, power centers and malls 2013 Principal, Retail Property Solutions, LLC.
Shopping Center Occupancy Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 88.0% Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates 87.5% Benton County 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 87.0% 86.5% Collierville 1,972,754 91.0% $16.96 709,562 90.9% - 0 - - 86.0% Cordova 2,840,463 92.5% $12.80 360,551 97.7% - 0 - - 85.5% Crittenden County 687,325 86.0% $9.20 0 - - 0 - - 85.0% Downtown / Midtown 2,437,310 85.2% $10.44 0 - - 0 - - E Memphis 3,370,745 93.4% $13.32 1,080,323 91.9% $10.46 451,796 100.0% - Fayette County 486,120 95.2% $14.95 0 - - 0 - - % Occupied Germantown 1,354,575 85.8% $17.85 651,001 96.9% $20.00 115,739 86.1% - Marshall County 283,152 81.2% $6.00 0 - - 0 - - N Memphis 3,797,551 85.7% $7.50 0 - - 0 - - Shopping Center Rental Rates NE Memphis 2,496,138 83.0% $10.69 951,148 94.0% $15.00 1,390,058 99.9% - $12.00 Olive Branch 1,333,088 92.4% $14.27 0 - - 0 - - $11.50 Outlying DeSoto Co 442,774 88.8% $17.11 0 - - 0 - - S Nashville 1,519,739 83.1% $8.96 270,448 73.6% $10.00 524,008 95.9% - $11.00 Southaven / Horn Lake 2,679,289 96.1% $13.43 416,427 100.0% - 481,459 100.0% $30.00 $10.50 SE Nashville 4,711,054 79.7% $7.28 2,098,594 85.2% $8.29 890,254 57.4% - $10.00 Tate County 296,315 93.0% $11.01 0 - - 0 - - Tipton County 883,633 90.5% $7.94 0 - - 0 - - Tunica County 210,397 93.2% $10.65 0 - - 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 31,802,422 87.8% $10.45 6,538,054 90.5% $9.89 3,853,314 89.2% $30.00 51. Unemployment Rates NASHVILLE 10% AUGUST 2014 9% UNEMPLOYMENT 8% 6.1% 1.76 million residents 7% 6% Down from 6.8% 5% in August 4% 2013 848,000 people in the workforce Total Retail GLA National Tennessee Nashville Malls 16%
THE NASHVILLE MARKET IS HITTING ON ALL CYLINDERS FOR RETAIL DEVELOPMENT. INFILL,
$51,061 median MIXED-USE DEVELOPMENTS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY POPULAR WITH NEW PROJECTS BEING “ “ household income ANNOUNCED WEEKLY. AREAS LIKE 12TH AVENUE SOUTH, CHARLOTTE PIKE, AND 8TH AVENUE Power (MELROSE) ARE BEING GENTRIFIED WITH RESTAURANTS, RETAIL AND MUSIC VENUES. THE GULCH Centers Shopping 19% SUBMARKET CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND HAS BECOME A TRUE DESTINATION IN NASHVILLE. Centers -Mike McGuffin 65% 41.0 million square feet of retail in CHM, LLC. shopping centers, power centers and malls Shopping Centers, Q3 2014 Power Centers, Q3 2014 Malls, Q3 2014 Submarket Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Total GLA Occ % Rates Shopping Center Occupancy Bellevue / W Nashville 1,710,864 95.4% $13.37 997,724 96.3% $16.27 0 - - 92% Brentwood 1,573,913 97.2% $17.42 0 - - 0 - - 91% Cannon County 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 90% Cheatham County 411,831 81.1% $7.07 0 - - 0 - - 89% Columbia 1,398,814 90.9% $7.28 509,080 96.8% $17.00 383,128 100.0% $23.41 88% Cool Springs / Franklin 3,357,126 91.1% $18.07 1,244,949 98.2% $24.87 1,457,936 99.9% $29.00 87% Dickson County 575,416 94.0% $8.14 0 - - 0 - - Donelson / Hermitage 2,249,918 93.6% $12.97 253,979 93.5% - 1,158,973 98.7% - Downtown 85,020 60.0% - 0 - - 0 - - % Occupied Green Hills / Belle Mde 1,159,039 92.1% $26.05 0 - - 1,129,775 99.9% $19.50 Hendersonville / Gallatin 2,969,272 91.3% $14.10 937,772 96.2% $17.87 0 - - Hickman County 66,100 71.0% $5.50 0 - - 0 - - Shopping Center Rental Rates Macon County 195,165 100.0% - 0 - - 0 - - $16.00 Mt Juliet / Lebanon 2,281,966 93.1% $13.37 1,397,377 97.5% $15.00 0 - - $15.00 N Nashville 3,239,983 92.6% $12.23 965,950 95.5% $12.88 511,453 99.7% - Robertson County 581,496 94.1% $14.77 0 - - 0 - - $14.00 Rutherford County 4,643,683 86.5% $13.08 886,645 97.9% $20.00 1,381,781 87.8% $24.00 $13.00 Smith County 48,445 35.5% $3.08 0 - - 0 - - $12.00 SE Corridor 4,739,561 87.1% $11.78 480,841 93.4% - 767,082 26.7% - Trousdale County 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - Vanderbilt / West End 600,453 98.0% $21.55 0 - - 0 - - Average Rental Rate Total / Averages 26,499,606 90.8% $13.11 7,674,317 96.7% $16.87 6,790,128 89.0% $24.06 52. EDITORIAL BOARD Dean Asher Kim Ellis Greg Smersh, Ph.D. Vice President Senior Vice President, Regis Salons Professor of Finance and Real Estate Don Asher & Associates, Inc ICSC Trustee MUMA College of Business University of South Florida Orlando, FL Minneapolis, MN Tampa, FL
Julie Augustyn Shawnta Friday-Stroud, Ph.D. Jim Spaeth Director of Real Estate Dean, School of Business and Industry (SBI) Executive Director, Wood Center for Real Estate Studies Office Depot Florida A&M University UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School Raleigh-Durham, NC Tallahassee, FL Chapel Hill, NC
Davon Barbour Dean Gatzlaff Cynthia Stewart Director, Community and Economic Development Mark C. Bane Professor & Director Director, Community Relations City of Hollywood, Co-Chair of Florida Alliance Program Center for Real Estate, Florida State University International Council of Shopping Centers Hollywood, FL Tallahassee, FL Washington D.C.
Jody Barry Joshua Harris, Ph. D, CAIA Blaine Strickland, CCIM Administrative Director of Strategic Development Director, Dr. P. Phillips Institute for Research and Education in Real Estate Consultant, Coach, Instructor, HBS Resources Florida Hospital Dr. P. Phillips School of Real Estate, University of Central Florida Adjunct Professor, University of North Carolina Orlando, FL Orlando, FL Orlando, FL
Timothy Becker, CCIM Andy Hunt Daniel Taub Director, Kelley A. Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies Portfolio Manager Chief Operating Officer, DLC Management Corporation Warrington College of Business, University of Florida Cardinal Group Management ICSC Open Air Conference Committee Member Gainesville, FL Denver, CO Tarrytown, NY
Scott Benjamin Brian Maloney Mark Thompson Director of Leasing Vice President, Leasing Managing Director, Investment Sales Crossman & Company Edens Crossman & Company Orlando, FL Fort Lauderdale, FL Orlando, FL
Angela Brown, MAI Claire Pagan Betsy Trobaugh Vice President Assistant Director of Marketing JCPenney Director, Miller Center for Retailing Education and Research Meridian Appraisal Group, Inc. Mall of Millenia Warrington College of Business, University of Florida Winter Springs, FL Orlando, FL Gainesville, FL
Bear Burnett Paul Puma Carol Westmoreland Director of Real Estate President, Southern Region Executive Director Hancock Fabrics Kimco Realty Florida Redevelopment Association Birmingham, AL Charlotte, NC Tallahassee, FL
Daryl Carter Scott Renick Barron Williams President Director, Commercial Sales and Leasing Senior Vice President of Acquisitions Maury L. Carter & Associates, Inc. The Villages Clarion Partners, LLC Orlando, FL The Villages, FL Washington, D.C.
Michael Collard Bev Ricks, CRX, CLS, CSM Teri Young President Owner and Principal, Retail Property Solutions, Vice President Leasing & Marketing Collard Properties LLC, Former ICSC Trustee Inland American Management, LLC Winter Park, FL Greensboro, GA Chicago, IL
John Crossman, CCIM, CRX Dale Scott, CDP, CRX John Zielinski, CCIM President Director, Hawkins Construction, Inc. Senior Vice President Crossman & Company ICSC Ambassador Crossman & Company Orlando, FL Boca Raton, FL Atlanta, GA
Chuck DuVal, Ph.D. Finance MBA Director, Barnett School of Business and Free Enterprise Florida Southern College Lakeland, FL 53. CONTRIBUTORS EDITORIAL CONTRIBUTORS
Timothy Becker, CCIM Michael Carroll Dan Colachicco John Crossman, CCIM, CRX Director, Kelley A. Bergstrom Center for Chief Executive Officer Director, Investment Sales President Real Estate Studies, Warrington College of Brixmor, ISCS Trustee Crossman & Company Crossman & Company Business, University of Florida New York, NY Orlando, FL Orlando, FL Gainesville, FL
Joshua Harris, Ph. D, CAIA Jennifer Jackson Steven Kirn, Ph. D. Director, Dr. P. Phillips Institute for Research & Research Analyst Executive Director, Miller Center for Retailing Education in Real Estate, Dr. P. Phillips Crossman & Company Warrington College of Business School of Real Estate, University of Central Florida Orlando, FL University of Florida Orlando, FL Gainesville, FL
MARKET COMMENTATORS Augusta, GA: Columbus, GA: Memphis, TN: Orlando, FL: John Gibson Wes Lewis, SVP, Asset Manager, Director of Bev Ricks, CRX, CLS, CSM, Owner and Principal Daryl Carter, President Vireo Group Development, Adams Brokerage Co., LLC Retail Property Solutions, LLC, Former ICSC Trustee Maury L. Carter & Associates, Inc.
Birmingham, AL: Daytona Beach, FL: Miami-Dade County, FL: Palm Beach County, FL: Sims Garrison, Chief Financial Officer Patrick Opalewski, CCIM Brian Maloney, Vice President, Leasing Patrick Koenig, President Fairway Investments Vice President, Root Real Estate Edens Flagler Realty and Development
Broward County, FL: Greensboro / Winston-Salem, NC: Mobile, AL: Pensacola, FL: Davon Barbour, Director, Community and Economic Development, Mark Thompson, Managing Director, Investment Richard Alexander, Portfolio Manager Ashton Hayward City of Hollywood, Co-Chair of Florida Alliance Program Sales, Crossman & Company Whitney Bank Mayor of Pensacola
Cape Coral / Ft. Myers, FL: Greenville / Spartanburg, SC: Montgomery, AL: Raleigh / Durham, NC: Martin Engelmann, Jr., MAI, MRICS Daniel M. Taub, Chief Operating Officer, DLC Management Teri Young, Vice President of Leasing & Marketing Ted Conner, Vice President of Economic Development Tropical Realty Appraisal Services Corporation, ICSC Open Air Conference Committee Member Inland American Management, LLC. and Community Sustainability, Durham Chamber of Commerce Charleston, SC: Huntsville, AL: Myrtle Beach, SC: Savannah, GA: Paul Puma, President, Southern Region Jeff Pape, Managing Director, Shopping Center Division Tommy Bouchette, South Carolina President of BNC Bank Adam Garfunkel, Aquisitions Analyst Kimco Realty GBT Realty Corporation reprinted with permission from The Sun News newspaper David Garfunkel & Company, LLC
Charlotte, NC: Jacksonville, FL: Naples / Marco Island, FL: Tallahassee, FL: Paul Hendershot, Director of Research for the Jerry Mallot, President Greg Smersh, Ph.D., Professor of Finance and Real Estate Shawnta Friday-Stroud, Ph. D. Dean, School of Business Charlotte Economic Development Commission JAXUSA Partnership MUMA College of Business, University of South Florida and Industry, Florida A&M University
Charlotte, NC: Knoxville, TN: Nashville, TN: Tampa, FL: Josh Page, Commercial Asset Manager William Hanks Mike McGuffin Michael Collard, President Pacolet Milliken Enterprises, Inc. CWH Real Estate Services, LLC. CHM, LLC. Collard Properties
Chattanooga, TN: Lakeland, FL: Nationwide Market: The Villages, FL: Erin Talkington Chuck DuVal, Ph.D., Finance MBA Director Hap Stein, Chairman and CEO Scott Renick, Director, Commercial Sales and Leasing RCLCO Real Estate Advisors Barnett School of Business & Free Enterprise Regency Centers The Villages Florida Southern College Columbia, SC: Fred Delk, Executive Director, Columbia Development Corp. reprinted with permission from The State newspaper 54. SCOPE OF SERVICES
CROSSMAN & COMPANY: Nashville Knoxville A real estate firm exclusively serving retail Charlotte landlords throughout the Southeast. Founded Columbia in 1990, our firm has grown to 20 million square ATLANTA feet of retail space under leasing or management throughout six states in the Southeast. Birmingham
Columbus Savannah Crossman focuses on the following services to any Montgomery major market in the Southeast:
• Leasing Jacksonville Tallahassee • Investment Sales Pensacola • Property Management • Asset Management & Receivership ORLANDO Visit us online any time at Tampa www.CrossmanCo.com West Palm Beach BOCA RATON Naples Miami
ORLANDO ATLANTA BOCA RATON 3333 South Orange Avenue 6400 Powers Ferry Road NW 980 North Federal Highway Suite 201 Suite 300 Suite 434 Orlando, FL 32806 Atlanta, GA 30339 Boca Raton, FL 33432 (407) 423-5400 (770) 541-0881 (561) 447-8940 55. DATA SOURCES
Population data and Metropolitan Statistical Area maps are from the US Leasing statistics, including historical data are from CoStar. Census and are current as of July 1, 2013. The 2014 population estimate http://www.costar.com data will not be released until summer of 2015. http://www.census.gov
Asset Sales data are from CoStar and Capital Analytics. http://www.costar.com, www.capitalanalytics.com/
Workforce statistics and unemployment data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Please note: the national and state data are seasonally adjusted. The data for individual MSAs are not seasonally adjusted. http://www.bls.gov/
Household income data and demographic data are from Site To Do Business and uses ESRI data. http://www.stdb.com 56. GLOSSARY GLOSSARY OF TERMS USED, FROM COSTAR GROUP: Community Center: A shopping center development that has a total square footage Shopping Center: The combined retail center types of Community Center, between 100,000 – 350,000 SF. Generally will have 2-3 large anchored tenants, but Neighborhood Center and Strip Center. not department store anchors. Community Centers typically offer a wider range of apparel and other soft goods than the Neighborhood Center. Among the more common Strip Center: A strip center is an attached row of stores or service outlets managed anchors are supermarkets and super drugstores. Community Center tenants sometime as a coherent retail entity, with on-site parking usually located in front of the stores. contain retailers selling such items as apparel, home improvement/furnishings, toys, Open canopies may connect the storefronts, but a strip center does not have enclosed electronics or sporting goods. The center is usually configured as a strip, in a straight walkways linking the stores. A strip center may be configured in a straight line, or have line, or an “L” or “U” shape. an “L” or “U” shape.
Lifestyle Center: An upscale, specialty retail, main street concept shopping center. Super Regional Mall: Similar to a regional mall, but because of its larger size, a An open center, usually without anchors, about 300,000 SF GLA or larger, located near super regional mall has more anchors, a deeper selection of merchandise, and draws affluent neighborhoods. Includes upscale retail, trendy restaurants and entertainment from a larger population base. As with regional malls, the typical configuration is as an retail. Nicely landscaped with convenient parking located close to the stores. enclosed mall, frequently with multiple levels (See also: Regional Mall).
Mall: The combined retail center types of Lifestyle Center, Regional Mall and Super Regional Mall.
Neighborhood Center: Provides for the sales of convenience goods (food, drugs, etc.) and personal services (laundry, dry cleaning, etc.) for day-to-day living needs of the immediate neighborhood with a supermarket being the principal tenant. In theory, the typical GLA is 50,000 square feet. In practice, the GLA may range from 30,000 to 100,000 square feet.
Power Center: The center typically consists of several freestanding (unconnected) anchors and only a minimum amount of small specialty tenants. 250,000 – 600,000 SF. A Power Center is dominated by several large anchors, including discount department stores, off-price stores, warehouse clubs, or “category killers,” i.e., stores that offer tremendous selection in a particular merchandise category at low prices.
Regional Mall: Provides shopping goods, general merchandise, apparel, furniture and home furnishings in depth and variety. It is built around the full-line department store with a minimum GLA of 100,000 square feet, as the major drawing power. Two, three, or more department stores may be included. A regional mall has an average GLA of 400,000 square feet, and may range from 300,000 to more than 1,000,000 square feet. Regional malls with GLAs in excess of 750,000 square feet with three or more department stores are considered Super Regional. (See also: Super Regional Mall).
57. This document has been prepared in good faith on the basis of information available at the date of publication. Crossman & Company does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, reliability, completeness or currency of the information in this publication. Readers are responsible for assessing the relevance and accuracy of the content of this publication. Crossman & Company will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.
If you have questions or comments, please email them to [email protected].
Crossman & Company, Retail Real Estate Southeast US Market Report, Spring 2015