PAGE 38 http://www.mediaweek.com September 16, 1996 MEDIAWEEK

FALL TV

be Fox's X -Files at 9. Analysts unanimously 7.a)tKday endorse the move from low -usage Friday. The This matchup features a very definition of pair of shows with com- appointment TV, its fans pletely different target will follow it anywhere audiences. CBS' Early and it provides great Edition should win in counter -programming the woman demos, but against three network NBC's The Pretender movies. "It wins that hour will face several male - in homes and demos, just appeal shows that could like Mart-led...With Chil- keep it from finding the dren used to beat the audience it deserves. movies for the first half hour," says Sternberg. "X -Files gets a lot of men, utes gives people a sense that all's right with the but people don't realize how well it does against world," she notes. "It punishes those who should women. And people are TV-movie'd out." be punished. There are a lot of things this show does for people that are not far removed from The Bottom Line what Touched does." GOOD NEWS FOR NETS Third Rock looks ready to anchor the night. One prediction that most everyone agrees NBC pumped up the show with plenty of special on: Expect more network erosion, but not as Tuesday and Thursday airings and mondo severe as the past two seasons, when the nets Olympic promos, and late -summer Sunday night dropped half a dozen share repeats have pulled well. "It'll win in demos," says cable. Paul Schulman says the networks' huge Schulman. "It hasn't seen its best numbers yet." investments in marquee talent will help draw But others are not so sanguine, especially since viewers back to broadcast, although star -driven ABC's Lois & Clark and Fox's male -appealing vehicles for Ted Danson, Bill Cosby and Brooke The Simpsons both have loyal audiences. "Lois & Shields have undergone radical surgery. Clark did very well last year-it won the time "Erosion won't be as bad as this past sea- period in a majority of weeks," says Cooper. son," says Betsy Frank. "The nets did some Adds Frank, "We've seen what happens when you specifically misguided things, like targeting split that 18-49 audience on Sunday. Third Rock in the middle and ignoring the young and old. won't do as well as Mad About You." Lois and This year, there's more diversity in targeting Third Rock will be neck -and -neck at a 17 share. strategies. There's has to be erosion, but the WB's family comedy block is well positioned to nets won't be as extreme in driving viewers gain ground among younger viewers, particularly to cable." from 8 to 9. "Look, if ER can do a 40 share, so can The real winner on Sunday nights, though, will someone else," says Sternberg. "Usually, you have one net declining, but for the last two sea- sons you had two nets [ABC and CBS] sliding. WPY Will two nets decline Aliens attack heaven? this year? I don't think That could be the result so. I think ABC will of the battle between drop, NBC will be stable Touched by an Angel on and CBS will gain. No CBS and 3rd Rock From law says the nets have to the Sun, the quirky NBC decline every single sea- comedy for which John son. In the long term, Lithgow just won an they'll keep declining, Emmy. If there were a but some years will be demo for heathens, it more stable. They're would be a bloodbath. dinosaurs, but they're

not extinct."