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Tmbthanachart Bank (TTB TB) (Maintained)

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Tmbthanachart Bank (TTB TB) (Maintained) Regional Morning Notes Wednesday , 21 July 2021 COMPANY RESULTS HOLD TMBThanachart Bank (TTB TB) (Maintained) 2Q21: Earnings In Line With Expectations Share Price Bt1.01 TTB’s 2Q21 earnings were lower yoy and qoq given lower net interest income and high Target Price Bt1.20 provisions and were in line with our expectations. The NPL ratio ticked up on lower Upside +18.8% loan bases. We revised down our earnings projections by 4-5% for 2021-23 due to (Previous TP Bt1.30) slower-than-expected loan demand and fee income growth outlook. Earnings are expected to rise 6% yoy in 2021 and to grow 11% yoy in 2022 on economic COMPANY DESCRIPTION improvement. Maintain HOLD with a lower target price of Bt1.20. The sixth largest bank in Thailand with roughly 10% of the credit market. The bank's strong RESULTS focus in on retail lending, which accounts for 56% of loan book. • Earnings in line with expectations. TMBThanachart Bank (TTB) reported 2Q21 net profit of Bt2.5b, down 18% yoy (-9% qoq), which was in line with our expectations. STOCK DATA Despite a decline in operating expenses, the decline in net profit was largely due to lower GICS sector Financials net interest income from lower loan bases and high provisions against NPLs. NIM was Bloomberg ticker: TTB TB relatively flat qoq at 3% in 2Q21. The cost-to-income was lower at 46.6% (1Q21: 47.1%) Shares issued (m): 96,409.4 due to lower overhead expenses. TTB’s earnings in 1H21 were at Bt5.3b, down 27% yoy, Market cap (Btm): 97,373.5 largely due to higher provisions and lower operating income. Market cap (US$m): 2,963.6 STOCK IMPACT 3-mth avg daily t'over (US$m): 13.0 • Weaker loan demands. Total loans continued to decline 1.6% qoq in 2Q (1Q21: Price Performance (%) -0.9% qoq), largely due to lower auto hire purchase and corporate lending. Despite 52-week high/low Bt1.25/Bt0.810 seasonal consumer spending and higher exports in 4Q21, we expect a minimal pickup in 1mth 3mth 6mth 1yr YTD loan demands given the pandemic and country lockdown. Full-year loan growth is revised (11.4) (14.4) (13.7) (1.0) (6.5) down to -2% yoy (from +1% yoy) in 2021. Major Shareholders % • Higher NPL ratio on lower loan bases. TMB’s gross NPLs were stable at Bt43.5b, ING Bank 23.0 partly due to an NPL write-off. The NPL ratio ticked up to 2.9% in 2Q21 (1Q21: 2.75%). Thanachart Capital 21.2 The coverage ratio was relatively stable at 125%. The loans under the relief programme MOF 11.8 were relatively flat qoq at 14% of total loans in Jun 21. FY21 NAV/Share (Bt) 2.19 • Challenging outlook ahead. Given larger-than-expected impacts from the pandemic FY21 CAR Tier-1 (%) 16.21 and the recent lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19 infections, TTB’s growth would be challenging ahead. We expect TTB’s earnings to be Bt2.5-2.8b in 3Q-4Q21, PRICE CHART likely stable qoq when compared with Bt2.5b in 2Q21. However, earnings would likely (lcy) TMBTHANACHART BANK PCL TMBTHANACHART BANK PCL/SET INDEX (%) experience an improvement from Bt1.6b in 3Q20 and Bt1.2b in 4Q20. 1.30 120 1.20 110 1.10 100 1.00 90 0.90 80 0.80 KEY FINANCIALS 0.70 70 6000 Year to 31 Dec (Btm) 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Volum e (m ) 4000 Net interest income 26,865 53,805 51,314 50,632 51,847 2000 Non-interest income 12,632 14,623 14,997 15,804 16,494 0 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jul 21 Net profit (rep./act.) 7,222 10,112 10,708 11,915 13,648 Net profit (adj.) 7,222 10,112 10,708 11,915 13,648 Source: Bloomberg EPS (Bt) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 PE (x) 6.1 9.6 9.1 8.2 7.1 ANALYST(S) P/B (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 Tanadech Rungsrithananon Dividend yield (%) 4.0 4.5 4.4 4.9 5.6 +662 659 8439 Net int margin (%) 2.2 2.3 3.0 2.9 2.9 [email protected] Cost/income (%) 52.3 46.2 47.4 44.9 44.4 Loan loss cover (%) 120.5 131.2 120.5 127.5 137.2 Consensus net profit - - 10,630 13,455 16,553 UOBKH/Consensus (x) - - 1.01 0.89 0.82 Source: TTB, Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian Refer to last page for important disclosures. 251 Regional Morning Notes Wednesday , 21 July 2021 NET PROFIT FORECASTS (Btm) 2021F 2022F 2023F Old 11,195 12,520 14,385 New 10,708 11,915 13,648 % chg -4.3% -4.8% -5.1% Source: UOB Kay Hian EARNINGS REVISION/RISK • Downgrading earnings projections. Given larger-than-expected impacts from the latest wave of the pandemic, we lower our earnings projections by 4.3% in 2021, 4.8% in 2022, and 5.1% in 2023. Our earnings downgrade reflects: a) new loan growth of -2% yoy in 2021, but maintaining a positive loan growth at 3% for 2022-23; and b) slower fee income growth of 5% yoy in 2021 (from +10%), but maintaining fee income growth of 5% yoy for 2022-23. To reflect our earnings downgrade, we expect TMB’s earnings to rise 6% yoy in 2021 and are likely to grow 11% yoy in 2022 on economic improvement. The higher growth will be due to a positive rise in loan demands and lower operating expenses. VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION • Maintain HOLD with a lower target price of Bt1.20 (from Bt1.30), reflecting earnings downgrade. Our valuation is derived from the Gordon Growth model (ROE: 5.8%, cost of equity: 9%, long-term growth: 2%) and implies 0.6x 2021F P/B, or -1.0SD below its historical mean (2016-2020). SHARE PRICE CATALYST • An improvement in economic growth will boost loan demand. • Better-than-expected asset quality leading to lower credit cost. 2Q21 RESULTS Year to 31 Dec (Btm) 2Q20 1Q20 2Q21 qoq % chg yoy % chg Comments Net interest income 13,045 12,872 12,782 (1%) (2%) Decrease from lower yield from rate cuts in 2020 Net interest margin 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% Non-interest income 3,523 3,971 3,118 (21%) (12%) Lower due to lower investment gain Operating income 16,569 16,844 15,900 (6%) (4%) Overhead expenses (7,776) (7,928) (7,402) (7%) (5%) Lower due to lower staff and premises expenses Cost-to-Income Ratio 46.9% 47.1% 46.6% Pre-provision profit 8,792 8,916 8,498 (5%) (3%) Loan loss provision 4,972 5,480 5,491 0% 10% Credit cost - annualised (bp) 143 158 160 Higher against elevated NPLs Pre-tax profit 3,820 3,436 3,007 (12%) (21%) Net profit 3,095 2,782 2,534 (9%) (18%) EPS (Bt) 0.03 0.03 0.03 (9%) (18%) Other Key Data and Ratios (%) Loan growth yoy 103.3% (1.7%) (1.7%) Slight decline due to lower auto hire purchase and corporate loans Deposit growth yoy 122.3% (1.0%) (8.2%) Loan/deposit ratio 95.8% 99.7% 102.6% Gross NPL ratio 2.3% 2.8% 2.9% Loan loss coverage 114.4% 124.0% 125.0% Higher due to additional provisions set aside Tier-1 CAR 14.6% 15.5% 15.5% Total CAR 18.5% 19.5% 19.6% Sources: TTB, UOB Kay Hian Refer to last page for important disclosures. 262 Regional Morning Notes Wednesday , 21 July 2021 PROFIT & LOSS BALANCE SHEET Year to 31 Dec (Btm) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Year to 31 Dec (Btm) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Interest income 72,321 64,060 65,089 66,884 Cash with central bank 21,943 21,266 21,585 21,909 Interest expense (18,515) (12,745) (14,457) (15,037) Govt treasury bills & securities 132,470 157,262 133,017 135,013 Net interest income 53,805 51,314 50,632 51,847 Interbank loans 211,185 177,217 224,843 219,087 Fees & commissions 10,575 11,200 11,848 12,440 Customer loans 1,348,480 1,313,428 1,344,523 1,373,531 Other income 4,048 3,797 3,955 4,054 Investment securities 1,881 2,233 1,889 1,917 Non-interest income 14,623 14,997 15,804 16,494 Derivative receivables 11,959 11,959 11,959 11,959 Income from islamic banking 0 0 0 0 Associates & JVs 8,599 8,427 8,554 8,682 Total income 68,429 66,312 66,436 68,341 Fixed assets (incl. prop.) 30,076 27,102 27,509 27,921 Staff costs (16,536) (16,205) (14,909) (15,058) Other assets 41,739 53,272 24,869 25,710 Other operating expense (15,087) (15,236) (14,948) (15,258) Total assets 1,808,332 1,772,165 1,798,748 1,825,729 Pre-provision profit 36,806 34,871 36,579 38,026 Interbank deposits 75,909 62,026 62,956 63,901 Loan loss provision (24,831) (22,064) (22,169) (21,376) Customer deposits 1,373,408 1,312,564 1,392,098 1,415,796 Other provisions 0 0 0 0 Derivative payables 9,268 9,268 9,268 9,268 Associated companies 363 300 300 200 Debt equivalents 88,965 98,965 103,965 108,965 Other non-operating income 0 0 0 0 Other liabilities 56,033 78,338 12,135 1,106 Pre-tax profit 12,338 13,107 14,710 16,850 Total liabilities 1,603,582 1,561,161 1,580,421 1,599,035 Tax (2,223) (2,399) (2,795) (3,201) Shareholders' funds 204,713 210,964 218,282 226,644 Minorities (3) 0 0 0 Minority interest - accumulated 37 41 45 49 Net profit 10,112 10,708 11,915 13,648 Total equity & liabilities 1,808,332 1,772,165 1,798,748 1,825,729 Net profit (adj.) 10,112 10,708 11,915 13,648 OPERATING RATIOS KEY METRICS Year to 31 Dec (%) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Year to 31 Dec (%) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Capital Adequacy Growth Tier-1 CAR 15.4 16.2 17.4 18.7 Net interest income, yoy chg 100.3 (4.6) (1.3) 2.4 Total CAR 19.5 20.5 21.6 22.9 Fees & commissions, yoy chg 141.8 5.9 5.8 5.0 Total assets/equity (x) 8.8 8.4 8.2 8.1 Pre-provision profit, yoy chg 95.5 (5.3) 4.9 4.0 Tangible assets/tangible common 8.8 8.4 8.2 8.1 Net profit, yoy chg 40.0 5.9 11.3 14.5 equity (x) Net profit (adj.), yoy chg 40.0 5.9 11.3 14.5 Customer loans, yoy chg 0.0 (2.6) 2.4 2.2 Asset Quality Customer deposits, yoy chg (1.8) (4.4) 6.1 1.7 NPL ratio 2.5 3.3 3.6 3.7 Profitability Loan loss coverage 131.2 120.5 127.5 137.2 Net interest margin 2.3 3.0 2.9 2.9 Loan loss reserve/gross loans 3.7 6.4 7.2 7.9 Cost/income ratio 46.2 47.4 44.9 44.4 Increase in NPLs 4.9 30.0 10.0 5.0 Adjusted ROA 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 Credit cost (bp) 178.3 160.0 160.0 150.0 Reported ROE 5.1 5.2 5.6 6.1 Adjusted ROE 5.1 5.2 5.6 6.1 Liquidity Valuation Loan/deposit ratio 101.4 104.0 101.0 102.0 P/BV (x) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 Liquid assets/short-term liabilities 25.2 25.9 26.1 25.4 P/NTA (x) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 Liquid assets/total assets 20.2 20.1 21.1 20.6 Adjusted P/E (x) 9.6 9.1 8.2 7.1 Dividend Yield 4.5 4.4 4.9 5.6 Payout ratio 42.9 40.0 40.0 40.0 Refer to last page for important disclosures.
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