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Tmbthanachart Bank Pcl (TTB) Rating: HOLD Fair Price: Bt1.17 Close Price: Bt1.00

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Tmbthanachart Bank Pcl (TTB) Rating: HOLD Fair Price: Bt1.17 Close Price: Bt1.00 Company Update Wednesday, July 21, 2021 I V Global Securities Public Company Limited TMBThanachart Bank Pcl (TTB) Rating: HOLD Fair price: Bt1.17 Close price: Bt1.00 2Q21 results beat consensus Company Information TMB reported 2Q21 net profit of Bt2.5bn (-18% YoY and -8.9% QoQ). Ticker: TMB TB The results beat the Bloomberg consensus estimate of Bt2.19bn. Pre- Sector: Financials provision operating profit (PPOP) fell by 3.4% YoY and 4.7% QoQ to Shares outstanding (m): 96,409.42 Bt8.5bn during 2Q21. Expected credit loss (ECL) for 2Q21 rose by 10.4% Market capitalization (Btm): 96,409.42 YoY but was flat QoQ at Bt5.5bn, suggesting credit costs at 160bps of Trading vol/day (‘000 shares): 489,960.76 Free float (%): 34.20 loans. 1H21 net profit declined by 26.8% YoY to Bt5.32bn, accounting for Beta: 1.52 46.7% of our full-year estimate. About 14% of total loans (of Bt1.36trn) were in the debt-relief program, stable QoQ. Most of them were in the second phase of the Bank of Major Shareholders Thailand’s (BOT) relief measures (i.e., additional requests with sequential ING BANK N.V. 23.0% offerings). As of June 2021, commercial customers under forbearance Thanachart Capital Pcl 21.2% accounted for 16% of total commercial loans and retail customers Ministry of Finance 11.8% Vayupak Fund 10.4% comprised 13% of total retail loans, respectively. Thai NVDR 3.0% NPL ratio rose from 2.75% at end 1Q21 to 2.89% at end 2Q21. In absolute terms, NPLs were up by 0.3% QoQ to Bt43.54bn. The loan-loss- coverage ratio stood at 125%. Consensus Bloomberg Loans fell 2.74% YTD as TMB decided to conservatively grow loans on a 2021F EPS (Bt): 0.11 selective basis given the Covid-19 environment. Corporate loans Target price (Bt): 1.34 decreased by 5.1% YTD from government loan repayment. However, Price Performance trade finance regained its positive momentum from export/import 52 Wk high/low: 1.2 /0.80 activities improving while SME loans slowed due to the resurgence of COVID-19. Retail loans contracted by 0.9% YTD as growth in hire 1M 3M 1Y YTD purchase slowed down while unsecured loans and credit card also Absolute (%) -12.3 -14.5 -2.0 -7.4 remained soft. Nevertheless, mortgage growth continued its moderate Relative (%) -7.7 -13.2 -15.1 -13.6 growth pace at 1.3% YTD. Deposits also fell by 3.6% YTD. Therefore, loan-to-deposit ratio came in at 102.6%. 150 NIM fell a bit QoQ to 2.98% on softening loan yield. Fee income increased by 1.9% YoY but down 27.5% QoQ while total 125 non-interest income fell by 11.5% YoY and 21.5% QoQ to Bt3.1bn. Cost-to-income ratio stood at 46.6% in 2Q21. In absolute terms, 100 operating expenses fell by 4.8% YoY and 6.6% QoQ to Bt7.4bn. TMB set aside Bt5.5bn of ECL in 2Q21 (+10% YoY or stable QoQ). 75 Total CAR came in at 19.6%, with Tier-1 capital at 15.5%. Maintain HOLD. Given the new BOT’s relief measures for the new 50 Covid-19 outbreak, we decide to cut our earnings estimates by 25 14%/19%/19%, respectively to assume lower income. We prefer to maintain our HOLD call on TMB with a revised price target of Bt1.17 (from Bt1.30), based on 0.6x book at end 2021F. The stock currently TTB SET trades at what we view as a fair 2021F P/E of 9.8x. Key downside risks include a larger-than-expected negative impact from the Covid-19 crisis. Rating CGR 2020 Thai CAC Investment summary FY Dec 31 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F TMB Certified Net profit (Btm) 11,601 7,222 10,112 9,814 9,992 11,451 Change (%) 33.6 -37.7 40.0 -2.9 1.8 14.6 PPOP (Btm) 30,568 19,147 37,169 32,685 30,585 30,051 Change (%) 55.6 -37.4 94.1 -12.1 -6.4 -1.7 Analyst EPS (Bt) 0.26 0.149 0.105 0.102 0.104 0.119 Rattana Leenutaphong Change (%) 33.5 -43.9 -29.4 -2.9 1.8 14.6 [email protected] P/E (x) 3.8 6.7 9.5 9.8 9.6 8.4 Tel: 662-658-5787 DPS (Bt) 0.07 0.04 0.045 0.03 0.03 0.04 Yield (%) 7.0 4.0 4.5 3.1 3.1 3.6 BVPS (Bt) 2.25 2.02 2.12 2.12 2.19 2.27 P/BV (x) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 ROAA (%) 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 ROAE (%) 12.3 4.9 5.1 4.8 4.8 5.3 Source: Company and IVG estimates The opinions and information contained herein are based upon sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy, completeness or correctness are not guaranteed. This information is not to be construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein by this report. I V Global Securities Plc (“IVG”) accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. Company Update Wednesday, July 21, 2021 I V Global Securities Public Company Limited Results Btm 2Q21 2Q20 % YoY 1Q21 % QoQ 1H21 1H20 % YoY Net interest income 12,782 13,045 -2.0 12,872 -0.7 25,654 27,059 -5.2 Non-interest income Fee income 2,198 2,158 1.9 3,032 -27.5 5,230 4,972 5.2 Others 919 1,365 -32.7 939 -2.1 1,859 2,732 -32.0 Total 3,118 3,523 -11.5 3,971 -21.5 7,089 7,705 -8.0 Operating expense 7,402 7,776 -4.8 7,928 -6.6 15,330 16,107 -4.8 PPOP 8,498 8,792 -3.4 8,916 -4.7 17,414 18,657 -6.7 ECL 5,491 4,972 10.4 5,480 0.2 10,971 9,732 12.7 Pre-tax profits 3,007 3,820 -21.3 3,436 -12.5 6,443 8,925 -27.8 Tax 472 724 -34.8 653 -27.7 1,125 1,665 -32.4 Net profit 2,534 3,095 -18.1 2,782 -8.9 5,316 7,258 -26.8 EPS (Bt) 0.026 0.071 -63.0 0.029 -8.9 0.055 0.167 -66.9 Source: Company and IVG estimates Key ratios (%) 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 Loan growth, YTD 0.8 (0.7) (1.8) 0.0 -1.1 -2.74 Loan growth, YoY 107.0 106.4 98.7 0.0 -1.9 -2.41 NIM 3.10 2.86 2.94 3.06 3.00 2.98 Fee income, YoY 63.4 13.1 34.0 18.7 7.7 1.9 Non-int income, YoY 83.4 38.3 (33.5) 18.1 -5.0 -11.5 Cost to income 45.8 46.9 45.8 45.4 47.1 46.6 Loan-to-deposit 100.6 95.8 96.9 101.4 99.7 102.6 Credit cost (bps) 135.6 143.9 201.4 238.3 158.1 160.4 NPL 2.76 2.34 2.33 2.50 2.75 2.89 LLR/NPL 105.7 114.4 131.6 133.8 124.0 125.0 Tier I 14.5 14.6 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.5 Total CAR 18.8 18.6 19.2 19.5 19.5 19.6 Source: Company and IVG estimates Quarterly performance Btm 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 Net interest income 14,014 13,045 13,227 13,519 12,872 12,782 Non-interest income Fee income 2,815 2,158 2,633 2,970 3,032 2,198 Others 1,367 1,365 352 1,327 939 919 Total 4,182 3,5232,984 4,297 3,971 3,118 Non-interest expense 8,331 7,776 7,429 8,086 7,928 7,402 PPOP 9,864 8,7928,783 9,730 8,916 8,498 Provisions 4,760 4,972 6,863 8,237 5,480 5,491 Pre-tax profits 5,105 3,820 1,920 1,493 3,436 3,007 Tax 940 724 301 258 653 472 Net profit 4,163 3,095 1,619 1,234 2,782 2,534 EPS (Bt) 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.029 0.026 Source: Company 2 of 3 Company Update Wednesday, July 21, 2021 I V Global Securities Public Company Limited I V Global Investment Research – Recommendation Definitions Sector Recommendations Stock Recommendations OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant months. primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage HOLD: Expecting total returns of not more than -10% to +10% over the universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary next 3 months. market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant months primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
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