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Tmbthanachart Bank TTB Earnings brief Wed, Jul 21, 2021 TMBThanachart Bank TTB TMBThanachart Bank Bloomberg TMB TB Public Company Limited Reuters TMB.BK Tactical: NEUTRAL 2Q21: Beat on lower provisions (3-momth) TMB’s 2Q21 earnings beat SCBS and consensus forecasts on lower Stock data provisions than expected and reflect stable asset quality, contracting Last close (Jul 20) (Bt) 1.00 loans, stable NII, lower non-NII and easing cost to income ratio from lower Target price (Bt) 1.25 Mkt cap (Btbn) 96.41 integration cost. We maintain Neutral with an unchanged TP of Bt1.25. Mkt cap (US$mn) 2,940 Although it appears undervalued, we expect share price to be dragged by a sluggish earnings outlook for 2H21 and rising asset quality risk. Beta L Mkt cap (%) SET 0.54 2Q21: Beat on lower-than-expected provisions. TMB reported 2Q21 earnings Sector % SET 8.04 of Bt2.53bn (-9% QoQ, -18% YoY), 25% above our forecast of Bt2bn and 20% above Shares issued (mn) 96,409 consensus forecast of Bt2.1bn. Behind the beat was lower provisions than Par value (Bt) 0.95 12-m high / low (Bt) 1.3 / 0.8 expected. Avg. daily 6m (US$mn) 16.00 Foreign limit / actual (%) 49 / 28 Highlights: Free float (%) 34.2 Dividend policy (%) NA 1) Asset quality: NPLs were stable QoQ (+12% if write-offs are added back), as a result of write-offs and sale of NPLs. Credit cost inched up 2 bps QoQ (+18 bps Price performance YoY) to 1.60%. LLR coverage was stable at 125%. 1H21 credit cost was 1.59%, 2.0 (Bt) below its full-year guidance of 1.6-1.8%. We expect a rise in credit cost over 1.8 1.6 2H21 and thus maintain our 2021F credit cost of 1.75%. 1.4 1.2 2) Loan growth: As expected, -2% QoQ, -2% YoY, -2% YTD. We maintain our 1.0 forecast of zero loan growth in 2021. 0.8 0.6 0.4 TTB — Stock Price 3) NIM: Up 2 bps QoQ on the back of a 2 bps fall in yield on earning assets and a 0.2 TTB — Rel. to SET (rebased) 3 bps QoQ easing in cost of funds. 0.0 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 4) Non-NII: Down 23% QoQ (-13% YoY), mainly due to lower fee income. Worse Source: SET, SCBS Investment Research than expected, net fee income fell 28% QoQ (+2% YoY). We cut our net fee income growth forecast to -2% from 3% in 2021. Share performance (%) 1M 3M 12M 5) Cost to income ratio: Fell 28 bps QoQ (-134 bps YoY) to 47.1% on lower Absolute (13.0) (17.4) (4.8) personnel expenses without the early retirement program to facilitate the Relative to SET (9.5) (15.1) (14.8) integration with TBANK. We slash 2021F opex by 2% as we expect a further Source: SET, SCBS Investment Research tightening in opex to offset a slowdown in business activities as a result of the lockdown. 2H21 outlook. 1H21F earnings account for 58% of our full-year forecast. We expect HoH lower earnings in 2H21, mainly because of higher provisions and lower non-NII. We maintain our forecast of a 9% drop in earnings in 2021. Maintain Neutral rating. We maintain our Neutral rating on TMB with an unchanged TP of Bt1.25 (0.55x 2022F BVPS). Although it appears undervalued, we expect its share price performance to be dragged by a sluggish earnings outlook in 2H21 and rising asset quality risk. Forecasts and valuation Analyst Year to 31 Dec Unit 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Kittima Sattayapan, CFA Pre-provision profit (Bt mn) 18,822 36,806 35,230 35,243 38,006 Fundamental Investment Net profit (Bt mn) 7,222 10,112 9,188 10,927 14,095 Analyst on Securities PPP/Sh (Bt) 0.20 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.39 EPS (Bt) 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.15 (66-2) 949-1003 BVPS (Bt) 2.02 2.12 2.19 2.27 2.38 [email protected] DPS (Bt) 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.04 P/PPP (x) 5.12 2.62 2.74 2.74 2.54 PPP growth (%) (38.29) 95.54 (4.28) 0.04 7.84 P/E (x) 13.34 9.53 10.49 8.82 6.84 EPS growth (%) (71.67) 39.94 (9.14) 18.93 28.99 P/BV (x) 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.44 0.42 ROE (%) 4.92 5.06 4.42 5.09 6.28 Dividend yield (%) 4.00 4.50 2.86 3.40 4.39 Source: SCBS Investment Research See the end of this report for disclaimer 1 TMBThanachart Bank PLC Financial statement Profit and Loss Statement FY December 31 Unit 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Interest & dividend income (Btmn) 35,631 34,713 35,128 39,837 72,321 64,552 65,810 69,129 Interest expense (Btmn) 10,870 9,979 10,632 12,972 18,515 13,317 16,234 16,708 Net interest income (Btmn) 24,761 24,734 24,497 26,865 53,805 51,235 49,576 52,421 Non-interest income (Btmn) 10,462 12,705 23,482 12,632 14,623 13,725 14,114 14,517 Non-interest expenses (Btmn) 16,589 17,792 17,475 20,674 31,623 29,730 28,447 28,931 Pre-provision profit (Btmn) 18,634 19,646 30,504 18,822 36,806 35,230 35,243 38,006 Provision (Btmn) 8,649 8,915 16,100 10,337 24,831 24,376 22,130 20,988 Pre-tax profit (Btmn) 9,984 10,732 14,403 8,486 11,975 10,853 13,113 17,018 Tax (Btmn) 1,740 2,004 2,866 1,588 2,223 2,062 2,623 3,404 Equities & minority interest (Btmn) 18 41 (64) (324) (360) (396) (436) (480) Core net profit (Btmn) 8,226 8,687 11,601 7,222 10,112 9,188 10,927 14,095 Extra item (Btmn) 00000 0 00 Net profit (Btmn) 8,226 8,687 11,601 7,222 10,112 9,188 10,927 14,095 EPS (Bt) 0.19 0.20 0.26 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.15 DPS (Bt) 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.04 Balance Sheet FY December 31 Unit 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Cash (Btmn) 16,531 17,872 15,234 23,853 21,943 22,934 22,303 22,307 Interbank assets (Btmn) 113,858 112,534 113,522 236,311 211,185 179,507 179,507 179,507 Investments (Btmn) 62,116 61,305 78,054 175,218 146,738 146,738 146,738 146,738 Gross loans (Btmn) 593,441 643,373 685,707 1,392,225 1,392,925 1,392,925 1,462,571 1,535,700 Accrued interest receivable (Btmn) 915 969 1,308 1,883 8,533 8,533 8,533 8,533 Loan loss reserve (Btmn) 25,088 24,969 32,975 45,477 52,978 73,395 90,590 106,545 Net loans (Btmn) 569,268 619,373 654,040 1,348,630 1,348,480 1,328,063 1,380,514 1,437,688 Total assets (Btmn) 821,000 843,872 891,713 1,864,678 1,808,332 1,759,481 1,813,798 1,873,742 Deposits (Btmn) 598,948 611,430 649,568 1,398,112 1,373,408 1,318,472 1,364,618 1,413,744 Interbank liabilities (Btmn) 45,417 60,349 64,267 86,626 75,909 75,909 75,909 75,909 Borrowings (Btmn) 39,874 33,352 35,124 108,835 88,965 88,965 88,965 88,965 Total liabilities (Btmn) 737,152 754,016 792,934 1,669,870 1,603,582 1,548,646 1,594,792 1,643,919 Minority interest (Btmn) 125 0 0 30 37 37 37 37 Paid-up capital (Btmn) 41,617 41,648 41,659 91,541 91,589 91,589 91,589 91,589 Total Equities (Btmn) 83,723 89,856 98,779 194,777 204,713 210,798 218,969 229,786 BVPS (Bt) 1.91 2.05 2.25 2.02 2.12 2.19 2.27 2.38 Key Assumptions and Financial Ratios FY December 31 Unit 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Growth YoY loan growth (%) 2.18 8.41 6.58 103.03 0.05 - 5.00 5.00 YoY non-NII growth (%) 2.26 21.44 84.82 (46.21) 15.77 (6.14) 2.83 2.85 Profitability Yield on earn'g assets (%) 4.48 4.34 4.15 2.97 4.07 3.72 3.75 3.79 Cost on int-bear'g liab (%) 1.56 1.44 1.46 1.11 1.18 0.88 1.08 1.08 Spread (%) 2.93 2.90 2.68 1.86 2.89 2.84 2.67 2.71 Net interest margin (%) 3.12 3.09 2.89 2.00 3.03 2.95 2.83 2.87 ROE (%) 10.27 10.01 12.30 4.92 5.06 4.42 5.09 6.28 ROA (%) 0.99 1.04 1.34 0.52 0.55 0.52 0.61 0.76 Asset Quality NPLs/Total Loans (%) 2.97 2.72 3.17 2.71 2.84 3.54 3.44 3.11 LLR/NPLs (%) 142.51 142.90 151.82 120.48 133.80 148.74 179.99 222.83 Provision expense/Total loans (%) 1.47 1.44 2.42 0.99 1.78 1.75 1.55 1.40 Liquidity Loans/Deposits & borrowings (%) 92.90 99.78 100.15 92.39 95.25 98.97 100.62 102.20 Efficiency Cost to income ratio (%) 47.10 47.52 36.42 52.34 46.21 45.77 44.66 43.22 Capital Fund Capital adequacy ratio (%) 18.25 17.43 17.31 19.26 19.50 19.74 19.03 18.31 Tier-1 (%) 12.90 13.27 13.53 14.62 15.40 14.98 14.44 13.90 Tier-2 (%) 5.35 4.16 3.78 4.64 4.10 4.76 4.59 4.41 Wed, Jul 21, 2021 2 TMBThanachart Bank PLC Financial statement Profit and Loss Statement FY December 31 Unit 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 Interest & dividend income (Btmn) 9,216 12,332 19,605 17,996 17,475 17,244 16,350 16,064 Interest expense (Btmn) 3,010 4,254 5,592 4,950 4,248 3,725 3,478 3,281 Net interest income (Btmn) 6,206 8,079 14,014 13,045 13,227 13,519 12,872 12,782 Non-interest income (Btmn) 4,411 3,527 4,041 3,445 2,907 4,231 3,879 3,005 Non-interest expenses (Btmn) 5,131 6,596 8,331 7,776 7,429 8,086 7,928 7,402 Earnings before tax & provision (Btmn) 5,487 5,010 9,723 8,714 8,705 9,663 8,823 8,386 Provision (Btmn) 2,893 3,114 4,760 4,972 6,863 8,237 5,480 5,491 Pre-tax profit (Btmn) 2,594 1,896 4,964 3,742 1,842 1,427 3,343 2,895 Tax (Btmn) 561 391 940 724 301 258 653 472 Equities & minority interest (Btmn) (79) (110) (140) (77) (77) (66) (92) (111) Core net profit (Btmn) 2,111 1,615 4,163 3,095 1,619 1,235 2,782 2,534 Extra item (Btmn) 00000 0 00 Net profit (Btmn) 2,111 1,615 4,163 3,095 1,619 1,235 2,782 2,534 EPS (Bt) 0.05 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.03 Balance Sheet FY December 31 Unit 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 Cash (Btmn) 10,770 23,853 20,802 18,074 18,921 21,943 18,220 16,088 Interbank assets (Btmn) 130,877 236,311 219,275 295,871 232,539 211,185 213,646 169,648 Investments (Btmn) 58,640 175,218 205,165 156,763 186,182 146,738 154,458 178,040 Gross loans (Btmn) 693,568 1,392,225 1,403,579 1,381,857 1,363,162 1,392,925 1,380,211 1,358,766 Accrued interest receivable (Btmn) 1,319 1,883 2,760 6,443 9,209 8,533 7,145 7,130 Loan loss reserve (Btmn) 28,464 45,477 46,715 44,374 48,371 52,978 53,800 54,419 Net loans (Btmn) 666,422 1,348,630 1,359,624 1,343,926 1,324,000 1,348,480 1,333,556 1,311,477 Total assets (Btmn) 900,901 1,864,678 1,889,189 1,893,153 1,840,853 1,808,332 1,794,474 1,748,473 Deposits (Btmn) 673,474 1,398,112 1,398,233 1,442,596
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