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Tmbthanachart Bank (TTB TB) Neutral (Maintained)

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Tmbthanachart Bank (TTB TB) Neutral (Maintained) Thailand Results Review 22 July 2021 Financial Services | Banks TMBThanachart Bank (TTB TB) Neutral (Maintained) De-Risking Amidst Headwinds; Still NEUTRAL Target Price (Return): THB1.00 (+1%) Price: THB0.99 Market Cap: USD2,904m Avg Daily Turnover (THB/USD) 394m/12.4m • NEUTRAL, new TP of THB1.00 from THB1.26, 1% upside with 4.5% Analysts FY21F yield. TMBThanachart Bank’s 2Q21 lower-than-estimated earnings fell on a sharp decline in non-II, and this could not be offset by its lower opex Wetid Tangjindakun and stable provisions. We cut FY21-23F earnings to reflect a more +662 088 9745 conservative view against uncertainties stemming from the pandemic. With [email protected] the bank’s focus on integration and balance sheet preservation, we expect underlying operations to stay soft until the situation improves. At 0.4x FY21F P/BV, its risk-reward profile appears fair, given the slow ROE recovery. Fiona Leong +603 9280 8886 • Going into hibernation mode in 2H21. Management expects the evolving [email protected] situation to persist, at least until 1Q22, and is maintaining conservative strategies amid a prolonged pandemic. TTB will continue to focus on balance Share Performance (%) sheet optimisation under the merged banking entity, rather than on aggressive YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m short-term growth. TTB is maintaining its FY21F targets, which points to Absolute (8.3) (13.9) (18.2) (16.8) (5.7) stagnant 2H21 earnings on a HoH basis. This should come together with a higher CIR, due to a shift in integration costs towards 2H21 and higher human Relative (14.6) (10.1) (15.7) (18.6) (17.6) resource expenses. Net fees and NII trend should be stable or soften. 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 0.81 – 1.25 Management also expects the Bank of Thailand to extend the 0.23% Financial Institutions Development Fund rate, which will expire at the end of the year. TTB Bank (TTB TB) Price Close Once the pandemic ends, TTB should be ready to boost its growth thereafter. 1.30 114 • 2Q21 missed expectations. TTB posted net profit of THB2,534m (-9% QoQ; 1.20 108 -18% YoY). 1H21 earnings of THB5,316m (-27% YoY) missed our estimate (at 46% of our FY21F net profit), but beat the Street forecast. Annualised ROE 1.10 102 was 4.9% (1Q21: 5.4%), while CET-1 ratio was at 19.6%. 1.00 97 • Lower net fee income engulfed positive jaws. Operating income fell 6% 0.90 91 QoQ on a 22% QoQ drop in non-II, as net fees income plunged in line with 0.80 85 the slowdown in economic activity. NII dipped 1% QoQ, from a slight 2% QoQ decrease in loans, with a stable NIM of 2.98% (1Q21: 3.00%). Still, positive 0.70 79 Jul-20 Jul-21 Oct-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Jun-21 Jun-21 Jan-21 Jan-21 Mar-21 Mar-21 Feb-21 Feb-21 Nov-20 Dec-20 Dec-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 jaws led to a lower CIR of 46% vs 47% in 1Q21, due to its accelerating cost- May-21 May-21 saving strategies. A stable ECL, with a credit cost of 160bps (1Q21: 158bps), Source: Bloomberg led pre-tax profit to drop by 12% QoQ. • Constant asset quality. Gross NPLs were stable QoQ following write-offs of THB4.9bn and THB1.3bn in NPL sales. Still, TTB’s NPL ratio ticked up to 2.89% (1Q21: 2.75%) due to the contraction in loans. Loans under relief programmes were stable at 14%, with c.85% of clients being able to repay their debts with full interest charges. • Higher LDR of 102.6% (1Q21: 99.7%). Focusing on a defensive strategy, TTB’s loans continued to drop 2% QoQ following a 1% QoQ dip in 1Q21. Deposits dropped by a further 4% QoQ, in line with the banking group’s plan to reduce high-cost deposits. • Earnings revisions. We cut our FY21-23F by an average of 18%, to reflect more conservative assumptions of lower loans growth, lower NIM, higher credit costs (see page 3 for more details). Forecasts and Valuation Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21F Dec-22F Dec-23F Reported net profit (THBm) 7,222 10,112 9,642 10,772 12,414 Net profit growth (%) (37.7) 40.0 (4.7) 11.7 15.2 Recurring net profit (THBm) 7,222 10,112 9,642 10,772 12,414 Recurring EPS (THB) 0.16 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.13 BVPS (THB) 2.02 2.12 2.18 2.24 2.31 DPS (THB) 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 Recurring P/E (x) 6.01 9.44 9.90 8.86 7.69 P/B (x) 0.49 0.47 0.45 0.44 0.43 Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 4.5 4.5 5.1 6.1 Return on average equity (%) 4.9 5.1 4.7 5.1 5.7 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 TMBThanachart Bank Thailand Results Review 22 July 2021 Financial Services | Banks Financial Exhibits Asia Financial summary (THB) Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21F Dec-22F Dec-23F Thailand EPS 0.16 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.13 Financial Services Recurring EPS 0.16 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.13 TMBThanachart Bank DPS 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 TTB TB BVPS 2.02 2.12 2.18 2.24 2.31 Neutral Valuation metrics Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21F Dec-22F Dec-23F Valuation basis Recurring P/E (x) 6.01 9.44 9.90 8.86 7.69 Our GGM assumptions include: P/B (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 i. COE of 9.4%; Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 4.5 4.5 5.1 6.1 ii. ROE of 6.35%; iii. Long-term growth of 2%. Income statement (THBm) Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21F Dec-22F Dec-23F Interest income 39,837 72,321 67,022 70,558 73,274 Key drivers Interest expense (12,972) (18,515) (15,026) (18,921) (20,089) Our FY20F forecasts are sensitive to changes in: i. Macroeconomic conditions that will impact asset Net interest income 26,865 53,806 51,997 51,637 53,184 quality and growth prospects; Non interest income 12,956 14,986 15,890 16,468 17,181 ii. Changes in policy rates which would impact NIM Total operating income 39,821 68,792 67,887 68,105 70,365 outlook. Overheads (20,674) (31,623) (32,122) (33,130) (34,196) Pre-provision operating profit 19,147 37,169 35,765 34,975 36,169 Key risks Loan impairment allowances (10,337) (24,831) (24,001) (21,800) (20,986) Upside risks include: Pre-tax profit 8,810 12,338 11,764 13,175 15,183 i. Stronger-than-expected economic recovery; Taxation (1,588) (2,223) (2,118) (2,398) (2,763) ii. Lower-than-expected credit cost; and iii. Better-than-expected merger synergies. Minority interests - (3) (5) (5) (6) Reported net profit 7,222 10,112 9,642 10,772 12,414 The reverse represents downside risks. Recurring net profit 7,222 10,112 9,642 10,772 12,414 Company Profile Profitability ratios Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21F Dec-22F Dec-23F TMBThanachart Bank is a universal banking group that Return on average assets (%) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 serves corporate, small and medium enterprise (SME), Return on average equity (%) 4.9 5.1 4.7 5.1 5.7 and retail customers. ING Bank, a large financial group Return on IEAs (%) 3.0 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.1 in Europe, is its strategic partner. The Ministry of Finance is a major shareholder, as well. The group also Cost of funds (%) 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 conducts business through a nationwide branch Net interest spread (%) 1.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 network, and in certain financial major centres of the Net interest margin (%) 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 world. Non-interest income / total income (%) 32.5 21.8 23.4 24.2 24.4 Cost to income ratio (%) 51.9 46.0 47.3 48.6 48.6 Credit cost (bps) 99.5 178.3 175.0 160.0 150.0 Balance sheet (THBm) Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21F Dec-22F Dec-23F Total gross loans 1,392,225 1,392,925 1,350,000 1,375,000 1,423,125 Other interest earning assets 402,576 349,324 358,300 371,220 386,550 Total gross IEAs 1,794,801 1,742,249 1,708,300 1,746,220 1,809,675 Total provisions (45,477) (51,967) (55,350) (54,863) (56,640) Net loans to customers 1,346,748 1,340,958 1,294,650 1,320,138 1,366,485 Total net IEAs 1,749,324 1,690,282 1,652,950 1,691,357 1,753,034 Total non-IEAs 115,354 118,050 202,142 223,404 252,316 Total assets 1,864,678 1,808,332 1,855,092 1,914,761 2,005,350 Customer deposits 1,398,112 1,373,408 1,420,000 1,476,800 1,558,024 Other interest-bearing liabilities 198,844 168,768 161,060 155,423 155,809 Total IBLs 1,596,955 1,542,176 1,581,060 1,632,223 1,713,833 Total non-IBLs 72,915 61,406 64,100 66,293 68,334 Total liabilities 1,669,870 1,603,582 1,645,160 1,698,516 1,782,167 Share capital 91,541 91,589 91,589 91,589 91,589 Shareholders' equity 194,777 204,713 209,894 216,205 223,143 Minority interests 30 37 38 40 40 Asset quality and capital Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21F Dec-22F Dec-23F Reported NPLs / gross cust loans (%) 2.7 2.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 Total provisions / reported NPLs (%) 120.5 130.1 111.1 115.3 119.0 CET-1 ratio (%) 13.6 14.4 16.2 16.9 17.5 Tier-1 ratio (%) 14.6 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.5 Total capital ratio (%) 18.9 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.2 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 TMBThanachart Bank Thailand Results Review 22 July 2021 Financial Services | Banks Results At a Glance Figure 1: TTB’s 2Q21 and 1H21 results summary QoQ YoY YoY FYE Dec (THBm) 2Q20 1Q21 2Q21 (%) (%) 1H20 1H21 (%) Comments 1H21 vs 1H20 NII 13,046 12,872 12,782 -1 -2 27,060 25,654 -5 Down, as loans contracted after the bank put more focus on healthy loans.
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