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SM Entertainment (041510.KQ) BUY / TP KRW50,000 July 22, 2019 Travel/Casino/Entertainment/Small-Cap Peter Yoo +822-3787-2574 [email protected]

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SM Entertainment (041510.KQ) BUY / TP KRW50,000 July 22, 2019 Travel/Casino/Entertainment/Small-Cap Peter Yoo +822-3787-2574 Airrio@Hmsec.Com Company Note SM Entertainment (041510.KQ) BUY / TP KRW50,000 July 22, 2019 Travel/Casino/Entertainment/Small-cap Peter Yoo +822-3787-2574 [email protected] Time for a change of tune Share price (KRW, Jul 19) 36,750 1) Investment highlights Upside (%) 36.1 - We maintain BUY on SM Entertainment but reduce our target price to KRW50,000. Market cap (KRW bn) 860 - We believe parent earnings were modest thanks to new albums released by a string of artists including Shares outstanding (’000) 23,398 Red Velvet as well as NCT127’s world tour. Paid-in capital (KRW bn)/Face value (KRW) 12/500 - Unprofitable subsidiaries have continued to remain in the red. 52-week high/low (KRW) 56,100/35,900 - SM is expected to respond to the request of activist funds to enhance shareholder value. 60-day avg. daily T/O (KRW bn) 13 Foreign ownership (%) 15.97 2) Major issues and earnings outlook Major shareholders (%) Lee Su Man and - SM’s 2Q19 results will likely miss consensus expectations, with sales coming in at KRW145.4bn (+17% 7 others 19.26 YoY) and operating profit at KRW9.5bn (-5.6% YoY). Price performance 1M 3M 6M - The parent unit SME likely sold more than 1.1mn albums as Red Velvet, SNSD’s Taeyeon, and Exo’s Chen Absolute (%) -16.9 -10.4 -22.7 released new albums. In addition, the full recognition of NCT127’s US/European tour and digital album Relative (%p) -11.5 1.4 -20.2 sales in China helped keep parent earnings modest. K-IFRS, consolidated - In Japan, about 300,000 concertgoers went to SM artists’ performances. Meanwhile, SM C&C’s earnings (KRW) 18F EPS 19F EPS TP likely reached BEP. Keyeast’s earnings, although still in the red, probably improved QoQ as 2Q recognized Previous 1,621 1,986 56,000 the earnings from a drama. Revised 1,593 2,128 50,000 - Among unprofitable subsidiaries, the loss at the F&B arm likely widened QoQ due to the suspension of Consensus 1,621 1,897 55,000 operations at its Seoul site. Subsidiary Everything also remained in loss, although the number of paying Difference (%) -1.7 12.2 -9.1 fan club members increased. SM Beijing’s earnings are expected to increase from 2H19 as WayV is scheduled to pick up its promotion activities. 12-month price performance 140 3) Share price outlook and valuation 120 - SM shares have severely corrected due to concerns over subsidiaries in the red, the activist fund issue, 100 and the possibility of limited promotions in Japan amid souring relationships between the two 80 countries. We believe the company’s shareholder return policy will be the key to the future direction of 60 40 SM Entertainment shares, the details of which will be announced at the end of this month. 20 KOSDAQ - For our target price, we applied a target P/E of 31.1x to 2019F EPS of KRW1,593. We applied a 10% 0 18.07 18.10 19.01 19.04 19.07 discount to our previous target multiple in light of the prospect of lower earnings this year and Source: WiseFn, Hyundai Motor Securities deteriorating sentiment over the entertainment sector amid soured Korea-Japan relations. However, we keep our rating intact at BUY as NCT127 is slated to become a global act and the company is expected to announce its shareholder return policy. Earnings forecasts and valuations Sales OP NP EBITDA EPS Growth P/E P/B EV/EBITDA ROE Div. yield (KRW bn) (KRW bn) (KRW bn) (KRW bn) (KRW) (%YoY) (x) (x) (x) (%) (%) 2017 350 21 4 44 169 -83.9 153.0 1.7 11.0 1.2 0.0 2018 365 11 4 33 199 17.6 174.4 2.2 21.5 1.3 0.0 2019F 614 46 37 147 1,593 17.1 23.1 1.8 4.6 8.2 0.0 2020F 732 57 50 136 2,128 33.5 17.3 1.6 4.2 9.9 0.0 2021F 773 62 58 119 2,467 15.9 14.9 1.5 4.0 10.4 0.0 Note: K-IFRS, consolidated COMPANY NOTE Fig 1. 2Q19 earnings preview Earnings Growth Consensus (KRW bn) 2Q19F 2Q18 1Q19F (%YoY) (%QoQ) 4Q18F %difference Sales 145.4 124.4 130.8 16.9 11.2 160.3 -9.3 Operating profit 9.5 10.0 2.8 -5.6 236.2 10.8 -12.5 OPM (%) 6.5 8.0 2.1 6.7 Pretax profit 10.2 11.1 2.7 -8.2 274.9 11.2 -8.9 Net prof t (CI) 8.3 5.1 -1.0 63.9 TB 8.9 -6.9 Note: K-IFRS, consolidated Source: Hyundai Motor Securities Fig 2. Quarterly earnings trends (KRW bn) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 2018 2019F 2020F Sales 110.6 124.4 168.7 208.5 130.8 145.4 162.1 175.9 612.2 614.2 731.8 SME 59.4 60.4 65.7 95.9 57.0 66.0 77.3 86.2 281.5 286.5 353.4 SM Japan 26.3 16.3 20.4 31.9 14.9 16.4 18.0 19.8 94.9 69.2 81.3 Dream Maker 6.7 12.4 17.9 21.3 16.3 17.9 19.7 21.7 58.3 75.6 89.0 SM C&C 37.5 52.5 44.5 62.5 35.2 37.0 38.8 40.7 197.0 151.7 167.1 KEYEAST 37.8 21.4 23.4 25.7 27.0 28.4 59.2 104.5 119.3 Interco transaction -19.3 -17.2 -17.6 -24.5 -16.0 -17.6 -18.8 -21.0 -78.7 -73.3 -78.3 adjustment Operating profit 10.4 10.0 12.1 15.2 2.8 9.5 16.2 17.6 47.7 46.1 57.3 OPM (%) 9.4 8.0 7.2 7.3 2.1 6.5 10.0 10.0 7.8 7.5 7.8 Net profit 11.4 4.0 7.3 0.7 3.7 9.3 15.0 16.4 23.4 37.1 49.8 Net margin (%) 10.3 3.3 4.3 0.3 -2.8 6.4 9.3 9.3 3.8 6.0 6.9 Note: K-IFRS, consolidated Source: Hyundai Motor Securities Fig 3. Earnings revisions Revised Previous %change (KRW bn) 2019F 2020F 2019F 2020F 2019F 2020F Sales 614.2 731.8 679.1 848.7 -9.6 -13.8 Operating profit 46.1 57.3 56.0 67.0 -17.8 -14.5 Pretax profit 49.7 62.9 56.8 68.9 -12.6 -8.8 Net profit 37.1 49.8 43.6 55.1 -14.9 -9.6 Note: K-IFRS, consolidated Source: Hyundai Motor Securities 2 Travel/Casino/Entertainment/Small-cap Peter Yoo +822-3787-2574 / [email protected] Fig 4. Sales trend Fig 5. Operating profit and margin trends (KRW bn) (KRW bn) Sales (L) YoY (R) OP (L) OPM (R) 250 120% 35 40% 100% 30 35% 200 80% 25 30% 25% 150 60% 20 20% 40% 15 15% 100 20% 10 10% 0% 5 50 5% -20% 0 0% 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 0 -40% -5 -5% 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 Source: Company data, Hyundai Motor Securities Source: Company data, Hyundai Motor Securities Fig 6. NCT127 going global Fig 7. Redvelvet, ‘Zimzalabim’ Source: Company data, Hyundai Motor Securities Source: Company data, Hyundai Motor Securities Fig 8. P/E bands Fig 9. P/B bands (KRW) Share price 45x (KRW) Share price 9x 100,000 40x 35x 7x 5x 100,000 30x 25x 3x 1x 80,000 80,000 60,000 60,000 40,000 40,000 20,000 20,000 0 0 11.12 12.12 13.12 14.12 15.12 16.12 17.12 18.12 19.12 11.12 12.12 13.12 14.12 15.12 16.12 17.12 18.12 19.12 Source: Dataguide, Hyundai Motor Securities Source: Dataguide, Hyundai Motor Securities 3 COMPANY NOTE Income statement Balance sheet (KRW bn) 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F (KRW bn) 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F Sales 365 612 614 732 773 Current assets 441 537 634 774 901 Change (%) 4.4 67.6 0.3 19.2 5.6 Cash and cash equivalents 195 237 381 507 619 Cost of goods sold 249 410 412 490 518 Short-term investment assets 3 45 38 40 42 % of sales 68.1 66.9 67.0 67.0 67.0 Accounts receivable 121 124 105 111 117 Gross profit 116 203 202 241 255 Inventory assets 9 12 10 10 11 Gross margin (%) 31.9 33.1 33.0 33.0 33.0 Other current assets 113 119 101 106 112 Change (%) 13.8 74.1 -0.1 19.3 5.6 Non-current assets 357 465 397 341 307 SG&A expenses 105 155 156 184 193 Tangible assets 93 93 61 39 29 % of sales 28.9 25.3 25.5 25.2 25.0 Intangible assets 113 186 163 123 93 EBITDA 33 88 147 136 119 Investment assets 127 152 114 120 127 EBITDA margin (%) 9.0 14.3 24.0 18.5 15.3 Other non-current assets 23 34 59 59 59 Change (%) -25.4 166.3 68.0 -8.0 -12.6 Other financial assets 0 0 0 0 0 Operating profit 11 48 46 57 62 Total assets 798 1,002 1,032 1,115 1,208 Operating margin (%) 3.0 7.8 7.5 7.8 8.0 Current liabilities 330 394 351 383 417 Change (%) -47.2 336.4 -3.5 24.4 7.9 Short-term debt 11 7 7 7 7 Non-operating profit -7 5 4 4 9 Accounts payable 124 179 151 159 168 Interest income 2 8 7 8 11 Current portion of long-term debt 37 36 48 64 80 Interest expenses 7 4 4 5 5 Other current debt 159 172 145 153 162 Other non-operating income -2 0 1 0 3 Non-current liabilities 31 32 48 49 50 Subsidiaries/affiliate income 21 -6 0 2 2 Bonds 6 7 9 9 9 Pretax profit from cont ops 24 46 50 63 73 Long-term debt 5 3 3 3 3 Pretax margin (%) 6.7 7.5 8.1 8.6 9.4 LT financial debt (incl.
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