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SM Entertainment SM Entertainment (041510 KQ ) Overall trajectory remains clear Entertainment Lower TP on earnings revisions , b ut overall trajectory remains clear We maintain our Buy call on SM Entertainment, but lower our target price to W47,000. While the expected rate of earnings improvement in 2018 needs to be adjusted Company Report downwards , we remain bullish on the company’s new idol lineup (NCT China to debut April 25, 2018 this summer) an d increasing content production competitiveness (production of hit dramas). Recently, worries over the earnings impact of accounting changes and allegations of improper outsourcing of record producing services have dampened investor sentiment. However, we note that the former merely relates to the timing of revenue (Maintain) Buy recognition and is therefore unrelated to fundamentals, while the latter is an already well-known issue. We believe SM Entertainment’s investment case - the cultivation of Target Price (12M, W) ▼ 47,000 new growth engines (ne w idol groups, content production, and resumption of China concerts) amid strong earnings growth of existing businesses (and advertising) - remains intact, al though the rate of earnings growth may need to be adjusted. Share Price (04/24/18, W) 36,550 Earnings estimates revised downwards, due to SM Japan accounting changes Expected Return 29% For 1Q18, we forecast consolidated revenue and operating profit to come in at W149bn (+119% YoY; all growth figures hereafter are YoY) and W13.2bn (+998%), respectively. We revised our estimates downwards, mainly due to accounting changes related to SM Japan (from IASB18 to IFRS15). The biggest impact on earnings will likely OP (18F, Wbn) 60 come from the company recognizing the 520,000 attendees of TVXQ’s 4Q17 dome tour Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 56 in 4Q17 (accrual basis), rather than in 1Q18, as we had previously assumed. This resulted in a 30% hit to our 1Q18 consolidated profit estimate. EPS Growth (18F, %) 659.2 Due to more-negative-than-expected earnings variables, 4Q17’s operating profit and Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 15.8 net profit figures were very sluggish. This was due not only to bonus payouts, me rger P/E (18F, x) 24.2 compensations, and the expensing of content, but also to the negative effects of Market P/E (18F, x) 9.5 accounting changes, including changes in the recognition of fan club revenues (now spread out over the year, instead of recorded in the quarter they were earned) and a KOSDAQ 873.61 temporary rise in tax rates. Market Cap (Wbn) 797 1Q18 preview: Likely to disappoint, but key variables to be robust Shares Outstanding (mn) 22 The 1Q18 earnings report could hinge on whether there are meaningful changes in Free Float (%) 79.5 either core (recording/management) or new (advertising profit size, and progres s in Foreign Ownership (%) 24.1 content production) businesses. Aside from the accounting changes, we believe earnings variables for both core and new businesses will be largely in line with Beta (12M) 0.63 expectations. 52-Week Low 24,400 Core business: 1) We estimate 620,000 Japanese concert attendees were booked in 52-Week High 47,800 1Q18 (versus 1.14mn previously), including 260,000 for TVXQ, 20,000 for BoA, 180,000 for SHINee, 140,000 for EXO, and 20,000 for Red Velvet. (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute -14.4 20.2 44.5 2) We estimate domestic album sales were decent, at around 800,000 copies, including Relative -18.7 -5.4 3.6 240,000 for NCT127 and 280 ,000 for SHINee. We believe there were few other domestic activities in the quarter, due to the PyeongChang Olympics. 210 SM Entertainment KOSDAQ New business: 3) Following a strong performance (W3.4bn) in 4Q17, we believe the 190 advertising business merely broke even in 1Q18, negative ly affected by unfavorable 170 seasonality. Meanwhile, we think compensation/fees related to the advertising 150 acquisition were fully booked in 4Q17 and thus see limited risks of additional 130 expenses. 110 4) SM C&C’s drama Should We Kiss First? (SBS) has been a hit, garnering high ratings 90 (12.5%). We believe airing rights revenue and costs for the drama were both 4.17 8.17 12.17 4.18 recognized in 1Q18 and expect margins on the drama to improve in 2Q18, when the show is due to end. We believe the 1Q18 report, while unlikely to show a meaningful Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. earnings impact from content production, should enhance confidence in the company’s production capabilities [ Media ] FY (12) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F Jeong -yeob Park Revenue (Wbn) 287 322 350 365 562 578 +822 -3774 -1652 OP (Wbn) 34 38 21 11 60 67 [email protected] OP margin (%) 11.8 11.8 6.0 3.0 10.7 11.6 NP (Wbn) 6 22 4 4 33 37 EPS (W) 290 1,048 169 199 1,510 1,697 ROE (%) 2.5 8.3 1.2 1.3 9.1 9.3 P/E (x) 117.1 41.0 153.0 174.4 24.2 21.5 P/B (x) 2.9 3.1 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.9 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates April 25, 2018 SM Entertainment Earnings forecasts and valuation Table 1. Target price calculation (Wbn, x, W, %) Valuation - P/E 18F 19F 12MF Fair market cap 987 1,054 1,016 Net profit 33 37 34 (controlling interests) Target P/E 30.0 28.5 29.6 Target price (W) 45,374 48,460 47,000 Upside potential (%) 22.6 31.0 28.6 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, mn) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18F 2Q18F 3Q18F 4Q18F 2017 2018F 2019F Revenue 68 68 87 143 149 127 135 151 365 562 578 SM Ent. 41 40 61 74 68 55 61 66 216 250 254 SM Japan 13 12 12 22 26 17 20 22 59 85 81 Dream Maker 6 16 8 13 15 11 12 14 43 52 55 SM C&C 15 11 10 52 47 51 48 57 89 202 216 Operating profit 1.2 1.4 4.6 3.7 13.2 13.0 17.9 16.4 11 60 67 OP margin (%) 1.8 2.0 5.3 2.6 8.8 10.2 13.3 10.9 3.0 10.8 11.7 Pretax profit -3.3 1.9 32.2 -6.4 11.7 13.7 16.8 13.7 24 56 62 Net profit -8.0 3.8 12.8 -13.3 8.4 9.8 12.1 9.8 -5 40 44 Net margin (%) -11.8 5.6 14.8 -9.3 5.6 7.7 9.0 6.5 -1.3 7.1 7.7 Net profit attributable to -6.8 4.2 17.6 -10.6 7.5 7.5 10.3 7.7 4.3 32.9 37.0 controlling interests YoY Revenue -24.7 -12.0 -16.8 82.3 118.9 87.8 55.6 5.6 4.4 53.8 2.9 SM Ent. -16.4 -4.7 -0.7 48.5 68.2 36.6 0.0 -11.1 6.9 15.8 1.4 SM Japan -36.8 111.1 -7.6 89.3 97.3 39.4 72.5 -1.0 16.2 43.7 -3.6 Dream Maker -76.1 194.4 -54.0 202.8 170.1 -33.8 50.8 8.5 -16.7 22.2 6.9 SM C&C -27.1 -55.9 -64.4 153.0 215.8 345.3 371.8 8.6 -7.2 128.4 6.7 Operating profit -86.7 TTB -65.7 502.5 997.6 839.7 287.5 339.2 -47.2 452.6 11.6 Net profit TTR TTB 49.2 RR TTB 158.5 -5.8 TTB TTR TTB 8.4 Key assumption Concert ticket sales in Japan 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.1 Notes: Based on consolidated K-IFRS Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 3. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %, %p ) Previous Revised Change Notes 18F 19F 18F 19F 18F 19F Revenue 584 581 562 578 -3.8 -0.4 - Changed concert recognition schedule Operating profit 68 68 60 67 -11.3 -0.3 - Revised concert cost estimate upwards - Revised effective tax rate (SM Japan ’s higher effective tax Net profit 36 34 33 37 -8.9 8.1 rate turned out to be a one-time issue) downwards OP margin 11.7 11.6 10.8 11.7 -0.9 0.0 Net margin 6.2 5.9 5.9 6.4 -0.3 0.5 Notes: Based on consolidated K-IFRS; net profit is attributable to controlling interests Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 April 25, 2018 SM Entertainment Figure 1. Japanese concert attendees by artist (mn persons) 2.5 SM TOWN NCT127 RedVelvet 2.0 EXO f(x) Super Junior 1.5 SHINEE Girl's Generation TVXQ 1.0 BoA 0.5 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F Notes: No. of attendees are estimates based on venue size Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 2.
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