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Market Update 9 Th April 2018

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Market Update 9 Th April 2018 Market Update th 9 April 2018 USE ALSI Close: 2,264.35 Previous: 2,269.50 (UP: 14.50%YTD) - USD/UGX: 3,689.96 Previous: 3,689.83 (Down: 1.50% YTD) USE ALSI* Key Statistics: Close 2,264.35 Market Synopsis: 1D* % Change (0.23) Turnover reduced to Ugx19.27Mn ($5,223) 19.41% below Friday’s Ugx23.01Mn MTD* % Change 1.33 ($5,997). Five counters traded today as Stanbic Bank Uganda dominated trading with a YTD* % Change 14.50 79.38% contribution to the total market turnover. Turnover generated amounted to 52 Week Range 1,426.49 – 2,269.50 Ugx15.30Mn as its share price depreciated by 0.83% to Ugx30. Dfcu and BOBU generated Volume 563,459 a combined 3.28Mn as their share prices were held steady at Ugx715 and 125 respectively. Turnover (ugx) 19.27Mn ($5,223) PE 12.47 NIC Holdings and Umeme traded at Ugx17 and Ugx405 as turnovers of Ugx0.65Mn and EPS 47.15 0.04Mn were realised respectively. The USE All Share Index (ALSI) and the C8 reduced by Dividend Yield 2.2% 0.23% and 0.46% to 2,264.35 and 125.91 respectively. Market Cap (ugx) 30,950.58Bn ($8,387.78Mn) Headlines: Investor jitters over Museveni Umeme letter: Uncertainty has gripped investors of listed USE ALSI*- USE All Share Index, 1D*- One Day, MTD*- Month to Date, YTD*- Year to Date Ugandan utility Umeme, after President Yoweri Museveni’s letter on the renewal of the Source: Uganda Securities Exchange, Bloomberg power distributor’s 20-year concession. Although Umeme still has seven years on its current 2,300 concession, industry regulator Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) has set June for a start 2,250 USE ALSI INDEX - 12 months of renewal negotiations, raising questions about the timing of President Museveni’s letter, 2,200 and its impact on investor confidence in the firm. In a memo to the Minister of Energy and 2,150 Mineral Development, Irene Muloni, the president queried the persistently high electricity 2,100 tariffs since the Umeme concession agreement was signed in 2005, and fairly high energy 2,050 losses recorded by the power distributor. He advised the minister not to renew the 2,000 concession deal. The letter prompted a meeting of a section of Umeme top executives and 1,950 directors with the president at State House a few days later. Details on the outcome of the meeting are still unknown. The uncertainty has left many investors in suspense, with 1,900 stockbrokers reporting scarcity of sell and buy orders on Umeme’s counter, as the market 1,850 awaits clarity from government officials on the future of the firm’s distribution contract. 1,800 “That development is worrying because it raises questions about the concession but the 1,750 president might have received inaccurate information about the state of electricity 1,700 distribution in Uganda,” said managing director at Uganda’s National Social Security Fund 1,650 Richard Byarugaba. NSSF is the biggest shareholder in Umeme Ltd, with 23 per cent shares. 1,600 (Source; New Vision) 1,550 Umeme to recover Shs104 billion from domestic customers: Uganda’s Electricity distributor Umeme’s domestic customers will part with Shs103.7 billion that Umeme did not 1,500 collect because it underestimated the lifeline units they had consumed. The money will be recovered via the end-user tariff, the consumers will pay starting from April 1 to June 30. Close to one million of Umeme’s 1, 125, 291 customers will be impacted. “Owing to underestimation of the units consumed below the lifeline, the company under-recovered Source: Uganda Securities Exchange Shs57.7 billion and Shs46.0 billion relating to 2017 and 2016 respectively from the end-user Crested 8 Price Snapshot: tariffs as determined by ERA…” says Umeme’s 2017 financial results. “[The Electricity Close 52 Week Range YTD % Ch. Regulatory Authority] has agreed that these payments are properly due to Umeme through C8 125.91 114.10– 127.19 4.81 collection from [Quarter] 2 2018 tariffs.” Households, kiosks and small shop owners, who BATU 30,000 30,000 – 30,000 0.00 fall under the domestic consumers’ category, pay Shs150 for each of the first 15 units BOBU 125 100 – 125 10.62 consumed. Each unit after the fifteenth costs Shs718.5. According to Power Sector Reform DFCU 715 680 – 760 5.15 and Regulation in Africa report, 15 units are enough to power three energy saver bulbs and NIC 17.00 10.5 – 17.20 41.67 a transistor radio for one month. Umeme has in the past said some of its customers often NVL 510 510 – 545 (0.97) complain either about the service fee and the lifeline tariff. These two are charged once a SBU 30 25.25 – 30 10.09 month. In cases where a consumer purchases units more than once in a month, the units got UCL 29.00 12 – 33 (1.69) using the same amount of money varies, which baffles many. (Source; The East African) UMEM 410 400– 490 2.50 Forex Outlook: The Ugandan shilling traded in a stable position on Monday as the central *C8 is Crested 8 Local companies Index Bank of Uganda maintained its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 9 percent. The Local Regional Counters: currency was quoted at Ugx3,689/ 3,699. (Source: Reuters) Macro Indicators: Close 52 Week Range YTD % Ch. (%) Period NSE20 3,820.81 2,965.31– 4,114.01 2.93 Inflation (Year on Year) 2.0 Ended March 2018 BRITAM (Kshs) 12.60 9.40 – 17.06 (5.61) Central Bank Rate (CBR) 9.0 13/02/18 SAF (Kshs) 32.25 17.35 – 32.25 20.56 Bank Rate 14.0 13/02/18 KA (Kshs) 12.35 4.00 – 17.98 (23.33) 91-day T-Bill 8.62 21/03/18 NSE (Kshs) 20.50 11.00 – 24.75 2.79 182-day T-Bill 8.96 21/03/18 BRL (Rwf) 150 121– 155 0.00 364-day T-Bill 9.53 21/03/18 BOK (Rwf) 290 240 – 300 (3.33) CTL (Rwf) 57 57 – 90 (13.64) Forex Close Prev. YTD % Ch. Sources: Crested Research, Uganda Securities Exchange, Nairobi Securities Exchange, GBP/UGX 5,165.84 5,196.94 (5.82) Rwanda Securities Exchange, Bank of Uganda, Bloomberg EUR/UGX 4,512.61 4,537.98 (4.05) KEN/UGX 36.53 36.51 (3.81) CRESTEDCAPITAL RESEARCH CONTACT TZS/UGX 1.63 1.63 (0.62) Impala House 1st Floor, Plot 13/15 Kimathi Avenue Hotline: +256 758 230900 RWF/UGX 4.37 4.38 1.35 @: [email protected], W: www.crestedcapital.com DISCLAIMER: The information contained herein is obtained from sources, which to the best of our knowledge are reliable. As such, we are not responsible or liable for any factual errors arising thereof. The opinions expressed herein are ours and are subject to change anytime without notice. .
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