An Uncertain Future

he discovery of oil in Uganda in 2006 ushered in an oil-age era with new prospects of 11 Göttingen Series in Tunforeseen riches. However, after an initial exploration boom developments stalled. Unlike Social and Cultural Anthropology other countries with major oil discoveries, Uganda has been slow in developing its oil. In fact, over ten years after the first discoveries, there is still no oil. During the time of the research for this book between 2012 and 2015, Uganda’s oil had not yet fully materialised but was becoming. The overarching characteristic of this research project was waiting for the big changes to come: Annika Witte a waiting characterised by indeterminacy. There is a timeline but every year it gets expanded and in 2018 having oil still seems to belong to an uncertain future. This book looks at the waiting period as a time of not-yet-ness and describes the practices of future- and resource- making in Uganda. An Uncertain Future – How did Ugandans handle the new resource wealth and how did they imagine their future with oil to be? This ethnography is concerned with Uganda’s oil and the way Ugandans anticipated Anticipating Oil in Uganda different futures with it: promising futures of wealth and development and disturbing futures of destruction and suffering. The book works out how uncertainty was an underlying feature of these anticipations and how risks and risk discourses shaped the imaginations of possible futures. Much of the talk around the oil involved the dichotomy of blessing or curse and it was not clear, which one the oil would be. Rather than adding another assessment of what the future with oil will be like, this book describes the predictions and prophesies as an essential part of how resources are being made. This ethnography shows how various actors in Uganda, from the state, the oil industry, the civil society, and the extractive communities, have tried to negotiate their position in the oil arena. Annika Witte argues in this book that by establishing their risks and using them as power resources actors can influence the becoming of oil as a resource and their own place in a petro-future. The book offers one of the first ethnographic accounts of Uganda’s oil and the negotiations that took place in an oil state to be. Annika Witte studied Social Anthropology and Media Studies at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz and holds a PhD in Social Anthropology from the University of Göttingen. She has conducted ethnographic fieldwork in Benin, Uganda and Cameroon. Since 2013 she Oil in Uganda Uncertain Future – Anticipating An has been working as a lecturer and researcher at the Institute of Social and Cultural Anthropology in Göttingen. Annika Witte Witte Annika ISBN: 978-3-86395-360-7 Göttingen University Press Göttingen University Press eISSN: 2512-6881 Annika Witte An Uncertain Future – Anticipating Oil in Uganda This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Published in 2018 by Göttingen University Press as volume 11 in “Göttingen Series in Social and Cultural Anthropology” This series is a continuation of “Göttinger Beiträge zur Ethnologie”. Annika Witte An Uncertain Future – Anticipating Oil in Uganda Volume 11 Göttingen Series in Social and Cultural Anthropology Göttingen University Press 2018 Bibliographische Information der Deutschen Nationalbibliothek Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliographie; detaillierte bibliographische Daten sind im Internet über <http://dnb.dnb.de> abrufbar. “Göttingen Series in Social and Cultural Anthropology” Editors Prof. Dr. Elfriede Hermann Prof. Dr. Andrea Lauser Prof. Dr. Roman Loimeier Prof. Dr. Nikolaus Schareika Institute of Social and Cultural Anthropology Georg-August-Universität Göttingen Theaterplatz 15 D-37073 Göttingen This work is protected by German Intellectual Property Right Law. It is also available as an Open Access version through the publisher’s homepage and the Göttingen University Catalogue (GUK) (http://www.sub.uni-goettingen.de). The license terms of the online version apply. Set and layout: Steffen Herrmann Cover picture: Tankstelle Hoima; Annika Witte © 2018 Universitätsverlag Göttingen http://univerlag.uni-goettingen.de ISBN: 978-3-86395-360-7 DOI: https://doi.org/10.17875/gup2018-1090 eISSN: 2512-6881 Contents Acknowledgements ....................................................................................... 9 1 Introduction ....................................................................................... 13 2 The Conceptual and Methodological Framework ............................. 23 2.1 Oil, Risk and Uncertainty .................................................................... 25 Oil ....................................................................................................... 25 Risk ..................................................................................................... 33 Uncertainty .......................................................................................... 39 Profiting from Risk and Uncertainty .................................................... 42 2.2 Waiting for the Oil: Research at the Interstices ..................................... 46 Research Sites ....................................................................................... 47 Research Methodology ......................................................................... 52 Reflections on Positionality .................................................................. 56 Accessing the Oil Region: Researchers as Risks ..................................... 58 2.3 Chapter Conclusion ............................................................................. 61 3 The Risks and Uncertainties of Exploring for Oil ............................. 63 3.1 History of Oil in Uganda ..................................................................... 64 The Early Phase: Uganda, a Wildcat ..................................................... 64 Making First Discoveries – De-Risking the Wildcat ............................. 67 Setting the Legislative Framework ........................................................ 71 Busts and Other Recent Activities ........................................................ 74 3.2 Risky Delays ........................................................................................ 77 The Risk of a Bad Investment Climate ................................................. 79 The Argument for Fast Development ................................................... 80 Negotiating a Memorandum of Understanding .................................... 82 3.3 Corruption Scandals ............................................................................ 85 3.4 Chapter Conclusion ............................................................................. 89 6 Annika Witte: An Uncertain Future – Anticipating Oil in Uganda 4 Oil as Risk: Anticipating the Resource Curse .................................... 91 4.1 Civil Society in Uganda ....................................................................... 92 Civil Society and Oil Matters ............................................................... 96 “Sensitisation” Events on Oil ............................................................... 99 4.2 The Resource Curse: A Risk as Travelling Model .................................. 102 The “Original” Resource Curse ............................................................ 103 The “Translated” Resource Curse ......................................................... 107 A Successful Risk Narrative .................................................................. 117 4.3 Crude Brokering: Profiting from the Resource Curse ........................... 124 Creating Space for Brokerage ............................................................... 125 Manoeuvring within Oil Coalitions ..................................................... 127 4.4 Chapter Conclusion ............................................................................. 130 5 Living with Uncertainty in the Oil Region ........................................ 133 5.1 Uncertain Past ...................................................................................... 135 5.2 Expectations and Changes in the Oil Region ....................................... 137 Reflecting the Resource Curse .............................................................. 138 Employment Opportunities ................................................................. 141 Rising Immorality ................................................................................ 144 Security Concerns ................................................................................ 146 5.3 Uncertain Grounds .............................................................................. 148 The Uncertainty of a Refinery .............................................................. 151 Land Grabbing ..................................................................................... 153 Road Construction and Vampires ........................................................ 156 Relations of Mistrust ............................................................................ 159 5.4 The Cultural Sites Controversy ............................................................ 166 Cultural Sites as Risks .......................................................................... 166 Reactions from Oil Companies and Government ................................. 171 Negotiating

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