GLOBAL SEAFOOD PRODUCTION FROM MARICULTURE: CURRENT STATUS, TRENDS AND ITS FUTURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE by Muhammed Alolade Oyinlola B. AQFM., University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Nigeria, 2010 M.Sc., Universität Bremen, Germany, 2014 A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in The Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies (Zoology) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) October 2019 © Muhammed Alolade Oyinlola, 2019 The following individuals certify that they have read, and recommend to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies for acceptance, the dissertation entitled: Global seafood production from mariculture: current status, trends and its future under climate change submitted by Muhammed Alolade Oyinlola in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Zoology Examining Committee: Dr. William Wai Lung Cheung Supervisor Dr. Daniel Pauly Supervisory Committee Member Dr. Evgeny Pakhomov University Examiner Dr. Xiaonan Lu University Examiner Additional Supervisory Committee Members: Dr. Rashid Sumaila Supervisory Committee Member Dr. Max Troell Supervisory Committee Member ii Abstract Mariculture is growing rapidly over the last three decades at an average rate of about 3.7% per year from 2001 to 2010. However, questions about mariculture sustainable development are uncertain because of diverse environmental challenges and concerns that the sector faces. Changing ocean conditions such as temperature, acidity, oxygen level and primary production can affect mariculture production, directly and indirectly, particularly the open and semi-open ocean farming operations. This dissertation aims to understand climate change impact on future seafood production from mariculture. Firstly, I update the existing Global Mariculture Database (GMD) with recent mariculture production and create a farm-gate price database to match the production data. I show that global mariculture production in 2015 was 27.6 million tonnes, with a farm-gate value of USD 85 billion. Secondly, I develop quantitative models to predict the present-day global suitable marine area for mariculture. The results show that total suitable mariculture area for the 102 farmed species is 72 million km2: 66 million km2, 39 million km2 and 31 million km2 for finfish, crustaceans and mollusc respectively. Thirdly, I predict climate change impact on suitable marine areas and diversity. Results show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness, with large decline in potential farm species richness in the tropical to sub-tropical regions. Fourthly, I predict global mariculture production potential (MPP) under climate change. Results suggest that global mariculture production potential will decrease substantially by 16% in the 2050s relative to 2020s under the business as usual scenario. Finally, I develop a set of shared socioeconomic pathways for mariculture to assess the plausible future scenarios for sustainable mariculture under global change. The results highlight that future iii mariculture development and sustainability will depend on the efficiency of four domains; science and technology; society; governance and economics. Overall, the dissertation shows that climate change is a major threat to seafood production from mariculture. Climate change effect will depend on the species that are farmed, their locations and the farming operation/technology employed. Future research on the sustainable development pathway for mariculture should further expand on socio-economic modelling and projections. iv Lay summary Most world fish stocks are already fully- or over-exploited, and their potential catches are projected to decrease under climate change. Mariculture has been suggested as a panacea for sustainable seafood production. However, climate change can impact marine farming systems. This dissertation aims to understand mariculture potential contribution to seafood production under climate change. I update mariculture production database and create farm-gate price database. Results show that mariculture continues to grow globally at 4.4% per year (2011-2015). Using modelling tools, I estimated that the global area suitable for mariculture amounts to 72 million km2. Moreover, mariculture species diversity is projected to decline by 10 to 40%, particularly in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Also, future mariculture risks and vulnerabilities will be exacerbated if the world becomes regionalised towards trades and markets, with low environmental awareness and concerns. Overall, these findings suggest that sustainable seafood production from mariculture is uncertain under climate change. v Pref ace I am the senior author in all chapters. I took primary responsibility for the research contained in the chapters, including the design, data collection, analysis and writing. Dr William Cheung, Dr Rashid Sumaila, Dr Daniel Pauly, and Dr Max Troell contributed their expertise and advice with ideas, methods and data interpretation. All chapters of this dissertation have been published, submitted for publication or being prepared for submission. Part of Chapter 1, 3 and appendix A has been published as a book chapter. The reference is cited as follows: Oyinlola, M.A. (2019). Mariculture: perception and prospects under climate change. In A.M. Cisneros-Montemayor, W.W.L. Cheung, & Y. Ota (Eds), Predicting future oceans: Sustainability of ocean and human systems amidst global environmental change (pp 227- 239). Elsevier. Chapter 3 has been published in a peer-reviewed journal. The reference is cited as follows: Oyinlola, M. A., Reygondeau, G., Wabnitz, C. C., Troell, M., & Cheung, W. W. (2018). Global estimation of areas with suitable environmental conditions for mariculture species. PloS one, 13(1), e0191086. I designed, performed and wrote the first draft of the study. Gabriel Reygondeau and William Cheung guided with data analysis of the data. Colette Wabnitz and Max Troell provided advice and guidance throughout the writing of the paper. Also, part of the chapter was published in a peer- reviewed paper I co-author. Cheung, W. W., & Oyinlola, M. A. (2018). Vulnerability of flatfish and their fisheries to climate change. Journal of sea research, 140, 1-10. vi Chapter 4 co-authors are William Cheung, Gabriel Reygondeau and Colette Wabnitz. This chapter has been submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. Oyinlola, M. A., Reygondeau, G., Wabnitz, C. C., & Cheung, W. W. Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change. Chapter 5 is being prepared for publication. I developed the methods, collected the data, performed analysis and wrote the manuscript. Cheung. W. and Reygondeau. G. helped with modelling tools. Cashion. T. provided fishmeal and fish oil data. Campbell B. and D. Pauly contributed with guidance on mariculture database, U.R. Sumaila contributed with guidance on farm-gate price database. Max Troell contributed with guidance on aquaculture technicalities. All co-authors contributed to the final version. Chapter 6 has been prepared for submission to a peer-review journal: Scenarios for mariculture development in the twenty-first century using shared socioeconomic pathways. Oyinlola, M.A., Wabnitz, C.C., Lam, V.W.Y., Ahmed, N., Angkiriwang, P., Cox, R.E., Cao, L., Engler-Palma, C., and Cheung, W.W.L. I developed the methods and wrote the draft of the manuscript. All co-authors took part in the analysis. This research is approved by the University of British Columbia Behavioral Research Ethics Board (UBC BREB NUMBER: H17-02016) vii Table of contents Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... iii Lay summary .................................................................................................................................. v P reface ........................................................................................................................................ vi Table of contents .......................................................................................................................... viii List of tables ................................................................................................................................. xiii List of figures ........................................................................................................................ xv Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................... xx Dedi cat ion ............................................................................................................................... xxi Chapter 1 ......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Challenges of mariculture development ........................................................................... 3 1.3 Mariculture under climate change .................................................................................... 5 1.4 Research objectives .......................................................................................................... 7 Chapter 2: Past and current status of global mariculture