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Nber Working Paper Series Where There's Smoking NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES WHERE THERE'S SMOKING, THERE'S FIRE: THE EFFECTS OF SMOKING POLICIES ON THE INCIDENCE OF FIRES IN THE UNITED STATES. Sara Markowitz Working Paper 16625 http://www.nber.org/papers/w16625 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 December 2010 I would like to thank Hugo Mialon, Edward Norton and seminar participants at University of Michigan for helpful comments and suggestions. Thanks also to Erik Nesson for excellent research assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2010 by Sara Markowitz. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Where There's Smoking, There's Fire: The Effects of Smoking Policies on the Incidence of Fires in the United States. Sara Markowitz NBER Working Paper No. 16625 December 2010, Revised October 2011 JEL No. I0,K0 ABSTRACT Fires and burns are among the leading causes of unintentional death in the U.S. Most of these deaths occur in residences, and cigarettes are a primary cause. In this paper, I explore the relationship between smoking, cigarette policies, and fires. As fewer people smoke, there are less opportunities for fires, however, the magnitude of any reduction is in question as the people who quit may not necessarily start fires. Using a state-level panel, I find that reductions in smoking and increases in cigarette prices are associated with fewer fires. However, laws regulating indoor smoking are associated with increases in fires. Sara Markowitz Department of Economics Emory University 1602 Fishburne Dr. Atlanta, GA 30322 and NBER [email protected] Introduction Fires and burns are among the top ten leading causes of unintentional death in the United States, with thousands of deaths occurring annually (over 2,750 in 2009). The young and the elderly are particularly vulnerable, with fires and burns as the third leading cause for children ages 1-14 and the fifth leading cause for those ages 65 and older (CDC 2009). Non-fatal injuries from fires are much more common with an estimated 381,000 occurring nationwide in 2009. The majority of these deaths and injuries result from residential fires. Residential and commercial building fires are fairly common in the United States, with over 500,000 such fires occurring annually (Karter 2010). Cigarette smoking is one of the more common causes of these fires, and while the proportion of all fires caused by cigarettes is relatively small, about 2.8 percent, these fires are among the most deadly. In fact, the U.S. Fire Administration (USFA) reports that smoking is the first or second leading cause of fire deaths every year, occasionally alternating places with arson. (USFA 2004). Fires place tremendous burdens on society through the direct costs of damage to life and property, and through the indirect costs that include funding for public fire departments, providing fire protection within buildings, insurance costs and medical costs. Karter (2010) estimates the costs of damage to property from fires was over $15.4 billion in 2008.1 Fortunately, the number of fires in the U.S. has been trending down over time (see Figure 1). Part of this trend includes a decline in residential fires caused by cigarettes and declines in deaths and injuries over time. There are likely many different factors that are responsible for these trends including the growth in the use of smoke detectors, sprinkler systems, fires safety education programs, and stricter flammability standards for mattresses, upholstery and fabrics. 1 Direct plus indirect costs are estimated at $165 billion a year (USFA 2007). 1 Concurrent with the decline in fires caused by cigarettes is a downward trend in cigarette smoking over time. Along with broad scale public health and educational campaigns, increases in cigarette taxes and restrictions on smoking have contributed to the decline in smoking in the United States (Tauras 2006; Dube et al. 2009; Debrot et al. 2010). This paper explores the relationship between cigarette smoking and fires caused by cigarettes. Co-movement in the two trends is logical; as fewer people take up smoking and more people quit, there is less opportunity for fires to start as a result of cigarettes. However, it is not clear that the people who avoid smoking are also the careless ones who start fires. The magnitude of the reduction in fires resulting from decreased smoking rates is therefore an empirical question. In this paper, I quantify the effects of reductions in smoking on rates of fires, deaths and injuries. I also examine how much of a contribution tobacco-related control policies have in altering the incidence of cigarette-related fires. Specifically, I estimate the effects of increases in cigarette prices, taxes, and the implementation of restrictions on smoking in public places on counts of cigarette fires in various locations and resulting deaths and injuries. The harms from smoking are well known, and include the harmful health effects to the smoker, the harmful health effects to those involuntarily exposed to environmental tobacco smoke, and harm to developing fetuses. Previous research has examined the public health benefits of reduced smoking rates in terms of reductions in disease prevalence, increased length of life and improved birth outcomes (USDHHS 2004). Economists focus their research questions on whether increased cigarette prices and taxes contribute to improved health outcomes. This paper extends this literature by examining the question of whether reduced smoking rates and higher cigarette prices and restrictions on smoking have reduced fires, deaths and injuries. The results show that reductions in smoking and increases in cigarette prices are associated with fewer fires. 2 However, restrictions on indoor smoking are associated with increases in some types of fires, including those in bars and restaurants. Mechanisms Karter et al. (1994) discuss the three elements that must be present for a cigarette fire to start. First, there must be contact between the cigarette and the fuel source. Second is the likelihood of the cigarette to ignite the fuel source. Last is the susceptibility of the fuel source to ignite upon exposure. Efforts in fire prevention have typically focused on reducing the ability of cigarettes to ignite a fuel source, and on reducing the propensity of the fuel source to burn. For example, fire safe cigarette laws have been passed in all fifty states (with the effective date in a few states still yet to come). These cigarettes are made with banded paper that allows the cigarette to self-extinguish. From the fuel source side, a variety of mandatory and voluntary standards have been in place for decades. These include flammability standards for mattresses, upholstery, and apparel, portable heating units, and lamps. (See Frazier et al. 2000 for more details.) The main element in starting a fire, contact between the cigarette and the fuel source, comes from human carelessness (Karter et al. 1994). The degree of carelessness or vulnerability may vary among smokers and along observable and unobservable characteristics. For example, The National Fire Protection Association estimates that the risk of dying in a smoking-related fire rises with age, with 38 percent of victims ages 65 or older (Hall 2006). This is much larger than the elderly’s share in the population of around 12 percent. Alcohol consumption also has been cited as a contributing factor to cigarette fires (Patetta and Cole 1990). There are a number of scenarios by which a cigarette can start a fire. A common story starts with an improperly discarded cigarette, where burning 3 cigarettes, ashes, embers, or butts cause ignition of a fuel source. The most deadly smoking-related fires occur when cigarettes ignite mattresses, bedding, or upholstered furniture. Falling asleep and alcohol or drug impairment are leading human factors associated with these fires. Approximately 40 percent of residential smoking fires originate in the bedroom or living/family rooms (USFA 2005). The primary question of this paper is whether the number of fire incidents can be reduced through public policies that alter the demand for cigarettes. To answer this question, I take advantage of a large number of policy changes that have been occurred in recent years. Following the Master Settlement Agreement of 1998, numerous states and the federal government raised excise taxes on cigarettes and tobacco companies raised prices. A wave of new smoke-free air laws have been enacted in states, with tremendous variation on the degree of the restrictions and the public places to which the laws pertain. Recent studies find negative price and tax effects on different measures of smoking (Adda and Cornaglia, 2010; DeCicca and McLeod 2008; Stehr 2005). Several econometric studies have also examined the effects of smoke-free air laws on adult smoking behavior. A majority of these studies find an inverse relationship between the implementation of these laws and smoking (Wasserman et al. 1991; Chaloupka 1992; Evans et al. 1999; Ohsfeldt et al. 1999; Czart, et al. 2001; Gallet 2004; Tauras 2006; Yurkeli and Zhang 2000). Results by Adda and Cornaglia (2010) are particularly relevant. As part of their study on the influence of cigarette policies on second hand smoke exposure, they find that bans in bars and restaurants are associated with a reduction in the prevalence of smoking and per capita consumption of cigarettes, while bans in workplaces are not statistically related to these measures of smoking.
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