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International Relations of Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the European Union Countries Chienwu Hsueh University of South Carolina

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International Relations of Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the European Union Countries Chienwu Hsueh University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Scholar Commons Theses and Dissertations 2015 The Liberal Commercial Peace, Regional Considerations: International Relations of Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the European Union Countries Chienwu Hsueh University of South Carolina Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarcommons.sc.edu/etd Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Hsueh, C.(2015). The Liberal Commercial Peace, Regional Considerations: International Relations of Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the European Union Countries. (Doctoral dissertation). Retrieved from https://scholarcommons.sc.edu/etd/3571 This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you by Scholar Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholar Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE LIBERAL COMMERCIAL PEACE, REGIONAL CONSIDERATIONS: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS OF SOUTHEAST ASIA, LATIN AMERICA, AND THE EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES by Chienwu Hsueh Bachelor of Arts National Chengchi University, Taiwan, 2004 Master of Arts National Chengchi University, Taiwan, 2007 Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science College of Arts & Sciences University of South Carolina 2015 Accepted by: Timothy M. Peterson, Major Professor John Fuh-Sheng Hsieh, Committee Member Harvey Starr, Committee Member Gerald McDermott, Committee Member Lacy Ford, Vice Provost and Dean of Graduate Studies © Copyright by Chienwu Hsueh, 2015 All Rights Reserved. ii DEDICATION To my father, Tiencheng Hsueh (薛天成); my mother, Shumei Ku (古淑媚); my uncle, Tunglo Liu (劉銅鑼); my aunt, Hsin Tung (董信); and, my wife, Tingchia Wang (王廷嘉). And, to my senior and good friend, Tsungmu Wu (吳宗穆). iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Thank the chair of my dissertation, Dr. Timothy M. Peterson, who helps me a lot along the whole research process. Tim, you are the best dissertation chair a graduate student could ever found! Thank my dissertation committee members: Dr. John Fuh-Sheng Hsieh, Dr. Harvey Starr, and Dr. Gerald McDermott. What I learned from Dr. Hsieh’s CP classes and Dr. Starr’s IR classes would definitely help me through my future academic career. Thank Dr. Kirk A. Randazzo for teaching me the concept of EITM, Dr. Lee D. Walker for teaching me the concept of quality-quantity methods, and Dr. Tobias Heinrich for teaching me the concept of causal inference. Thank my good classmates and my juniors and seniors in the doctoral program of Department of Political Science: Yue Hu, Jikuo Lu, Intae Yoo, Juri Kim, Soonkun Oh, Anikin Evgeny, Mariam Dekanozishvili, Elena Grynberg-Bekier, Laura Elder, Clay Fuller, Douglas Paige, Rebecca Reid, Gretchen Keneson, TJ Kimel, Jamie Gray, Paige Price, Paul White, Jim Heenehan, Adam Cox, and Judit Trunkos. Thank the great help and care from my dear Taiwanese seniors and friends during these four and half years: Wenchen Wang, Yuehe Cheng, Chintser Huang, Yuehching Ma, Liting Yang, David Chao, Jenny Chao, Michael Chen, Bob Chen, Weitien Li, Chonghan iv Wu, Ifan Chen, Chiayin Wei, Yitzu Lin, Shuwun Zeng, Juiheng Tseng, Shrhan Wu, Kuolun Yen, Yuhsiu Lin, and Chuanfa Tang. Thank Dr. John Fuh-Sheng Hsieh and Juoyen Hsieh, who take a good care of us just like our father and mother in South Carolina. v ABSTRACT Most of the large-N empirical studies on the liberal commercial peace theory demonstrate that, in general, trade has a robust pacifying effect in reducing the probability of dyadical militarized interstate disputes. However, why trade’s pacifying effect varies across time and space remains a puzzle that previous research has not yet solved. The liberal commercial peace literature suggests the following questions are in need of answers: Why does trade promote peace mainly in inter-region dyads but not in intra-region dyads? What are the preconditions that make trade’s pacifying effect work or not work? In this research, I argue that there are two critical preconditions for trade’s pacifying effect to work: first, the benefits of trade must be substantively important, and second, important social actors who have stakes on trade must be able to influence the leaders when they are making foreign policy decisions. These two preconditions can be measured by countries’ degree of democracy and degree of development. Therefore, regionally, the pacifying effect of trade is stronger in regions where the countries are more democratic and more developed, and it gets weaker in regions where the countries are less democratic and less developed; temporally, because countries’ degree of democracy and degree of development vary from time to time, the pacifying effect of trade changes over time accordingly. I then extend this overarching framework to investigate the role of trade in the regional peace of Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the European Union countries, arguing that the variations of the regional peace can be predicted by looking at how trade affects the most important political issues in each of the vi regions. By finding out more nuanced preconditions, this research advances our knowledge toward the liberal commercial peace theory in the contemporary international relations research. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION ....................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................ iv ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................. ix LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................. xi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................1 CHAPTER 2: THE LIBERAL COMMERCIAL PEACE, REGIONAL CONSIDERATIONS .................15 CHAPTER 3: ASEAN AND SOUTHEAST ASIAN PEACE: NATIONAL BUILDING, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, AND ASEAN’S SECURITY MANAGEMENT .................................................................73 CHAPTER 4: LATIN AMERICAN PEACE: HEGEMONIC STABILITY DURING THE COLD WAR AND CAPITALIST PEACE AFTER THE COLD WAR .....................................................112 CHAPTER 5: THE EMBEDDED LIBERALISM AND THE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES .........................................................147 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION .................................................................................................186 REFERENCES .....................................................................................................................192 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Plan of the dissertation .......................................................................................13 Table 2.1 Summary of all the variables used .....................................................................43 Table 2.2 The number of fatal MIDs between all dyads, 1950~2001 ...................................................................................47 Table 2.3 The number of fatal MIDs occurred between inter-region dyads, 1950~2001 ....................................................................48 Table 2.4 The number of fatal MIDs occurred between inter-region dyads, 1950~2001 ....................................................................49 Table 2.5 Liberal commercial peace, global and regional, 1950~2001 .............................51 Table 2.6 Liberal commercial peace, global and regional, with interaction density,1950~2001 ...........................................................................54 Table 2.7 Three-way interaction of liberal commercial peace, global and regional, 1950~2001 ..................................................................................................................56 Table 3.1 MID onset between JntELP countries before and after JntELP, 1950~2001 ....79 Table 3.2 Monadic MID onset analysis of countries who adopt economic liberalization policy, 1950~2001 .............................................81 Table 3.3 Background of Southeast Asian countries in their early years after independence .....................................................................................................87 Table 3.4 ASEAN and dyadic MID onset in Southeast Asia ............................................97 Table 3.5 ASEAN and dyadic force and fatal MID onset in Southeast Asia ..................101 ix Table 3.6 Robustness checks of dyadic MID onset in Southeast Asia, 1980~2001 ....... 106 Table 4.1 The highest average dependences of Country A on Country B in Latin America from 1950 to 2001 ...................................................................... 121 Table 4.2 Determinants on force MID onset between Latin American countries .......... 141 Table 4.3 Substantive effects of the independent variables ............................................ 144 Table 5.1 The influences of interdependence and social expenditure on the number of international conflicts ................................................................. 167 Table 5.2 GEE negative binomial models of different levels of international conflicts between the European Union countries, 1990~2004 .............................................
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