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Examining Alliance Treaty Renegotiation

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Examining Alliance Treaty Renegotiation ABSTRACT Title of Dissertation: HOLDING HANDS WHILE PARTING WAYS: EXAMINING ALLIANCE TREATY RENEGOTIATION Ping-Kuei Chen, Doctor of Philosophy, 2016 Ping-Kuei Chen, Doctor of Philosophy , 2016 Dissertation directed by: Prof. Scott Kastner Department of Government and Politics This study investigates the renegotiation of security alliances, specifically the structural conditions surrounding their revision. Although the field of international relations offers a rich discussion of the formation and violation of alliance treaties, few scholars have addressed the reasons why alliance members amend security obligations. After the formation of an alliance, a member may become dissatisfied owing to changes in the external and domestic security environments. A failure to address this discontent increases the risk of alliance breakdown. Members manage their alliance relationship through a negotiation process or intra-alliance bargaining in the search for a new arrangement that can endure. Factors that help to show commitment to the alliance and communicate a set of feasible solutions are crucial if members are to find a mutually acceptable arrangement. By taking these factors into account, allies are more likely to revise an existing treaty. Examining a set of bilateral alliances dating from 1945 to 2001, this research demonstrates that public requests for renegotiation compel allies to change the status quo. It is found that alliance-related fixed assets and the formation of external alliances increase the likelihood of treaty revision, though institutionalization of an alliance does not help to resolve interest divergence. In addition, this study examines the strategy of delay in intra-alliance bargaining. Allies may postpone a dispute by ignoring it while working to maintain the alliance. Tension among allies thus increases, but the alliance endures. I examine three alliances in order to illustrate this renegotiation process. Among these, the Anglo-Japanese alliance demonstrates two successful renegotiations that prolonged a wavering alliance relationship; the Sino-Soviet alliance is an example of failure owing to the lack of substantive cooperation; and the US-Taiwan alliance during the 1970s demonstrates successful use of a strategy of delay that appeases a dissatisfied member. HOLDING HANDS WHILE PARTING WAYS: EXAMINING ALLIANCE TREATY RENEGOTIATION by Ping-Kuei Chen Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Maryland, College Park, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2016 Advisory Committee: Professor Scott Kastner, Chair Professor William Reed Professor Kathleen Cunningham Professor Paul Huth Professor James Gao © Copyright by Ping-Kuei Chen 2016 Dedication To my wife, Tz-rou Huang ii Acknowledgements I received much support in the course of my academic journey. First, I would like to thank my wife; I could not have completed the PhD degree without her support and understanding. My parents, Ching-jiang Chen and Li-wen Peng, have always supported my decision to pursue higher education abroad, and I cannot thank them enough. I also thank my professors at University of Maryland, in particular the committee members who guided me through this project. Dr. William Reed, Dr. Paul Huth, and Dr. Kathleen Cunningham are always available for questions and discussions. I also thank Dr. Michael Hanmer and Dr. Margret Pearson for their advices and patience. I owe my special gratitude to my advisor, Dr. Scott Kastner, for being an excellent mentor and a great academic partner. I am lucky to have had his guidance throughout my graduate career. I met many talented colleagues at the Department of Government and Politics. Hyo-joon Chang, Deniz Cil, and David Prina are wonderful companions. I also thank Peter White, Allison Patch, Kimberly Wilson, Chris Meserole, Ann Fruge, Carla Abdo, Stephen Arves, Maeryn Goldman, and Raymond Williams for the good times we had during the program. Finally, I want to dedicate this dissertation to Dr. Patricia Weitsman, who brought me into the world of alliance politics, though she passed away before this dissertation is completed. If this dissertation makes any contribution to the research on alliances, the achievement traces back to her. iii Table of Contents Dedication ..................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ......................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ............................................................................................................... vi List of Figures ............................................................................................................. vii Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 1 Plan of the dissertation .............................................................................................. 6 Chapter 2 Theory of Alliance Renegotiation ................................................................ 8 Alliance Formation, Decay, and Management ......................................................... 8 The erosion of alliance cohesion......................................................................... 10 Managing differences.......................................................................................... 12 Intra-alliance Bargaining: actors, means, and results ............................................. 15 Credible Commitment in Intra-alliance Bargaining ............................................... 22 Factors Leading to Bargaining Success .................................................................. 24 Pubic request ....................................................................................................... 26 Alliance-specific assets ....................................................................................... 28 Alliance institution .............................................................................................. 31 Alliance with a third party .................................................................................. 32 Strategy of Delay and Entangling Alliance Relationship ....................................... 33 Case Studies and Selection of Cases ....................................................................... 36 Chapter 3 Quantitative Test of Alliance Revision ...................................................... 39 Research Design...................................................................................................... 39 Data ......................................................................................................................... 39 The Selection Problem in Alliance Renegotiation .................................................. 40 Model ...................................................................................................................... 42 Dependent Variable ................................................................................................ 43 Independent Variables ............................................................................................ 45 Control Variables .................................................................................................... 46 Result and Data Analysis ........................................................................................ 49 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 53 Chapter 4 The Anglo-Japanese alliance: a relationship salvaged by renegotiation .... 56 Overview of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance 1902-1921 ........................................... 56 First Renewal: 1905 ................................................................................................ 61 Second Renewal: 1911 ............................................................................................ 72 The End of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance................................................................ 83 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 86 Chapter 5 The Sino-Soviet alliance: a lost opportunity .............................................. 91 Overview of the Sino-Soviet split 1950-1969 ........................................................ 91 Sovereignty above All............................................................................................. 95 Nuclear and Missile Assistance ............................................................................ 100 The Soviet Specialist Program .............................................................................. 104 A Change in the Wind........................................................................................... 111 An Ally at the Doorstep ........................................................................................ 116 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 121 Chapter 6 The US-Taiwan Alliance: a strenuous decade ......................................... 127 iv The Strategy of Delay ..........................................................................................
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