UNITED NATIONS OFFICE ON DRUGS AND CRIME Vienna TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME THREAT ASSESSMENT DRAFT - 26/03/2010 Not for quotation CONTENTS CONTENTS PREFACE ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION 19 CHAPTER 1. THE THREAT OF TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME 25 CHAPTER 2. TRAFFICKING IN PERSONS 39 2.1. To Europe for sexual exploitation 43 2.2. From East Asia to the world 53 CHAPTER 3. SMUGGLING OF MIGRANTS 65 3.1. From Latin America to North America 69 3.2. From Africa to Europe 77 CHAPTER 4. COCAINE 91 4.1. From the Andean Region to North America 95 4.2. From the Andean Region to Europe 105 CHAPTER 5. HEROIN 119 5.1. From Afghanistan to the Russian Federation 123 5.2. From Afghanistan to Europe 129 CHAPTER 6. FIREARMS 139 6.1. From the United States to Mexico 143 6.2. From Eastern Europe to the world 151 CHAPTER 7. ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES 161 7.1. Wildlife from Africa and South-East Asia to Asia 163 7.2. Timber from South-East Asia to the European Union and Asia 173 CHAPTER 8. COUNTERFEIT PRODUCTS 185 8.1. Consumer goods from East Asia to Europe 187 8.2. Medicines from South- and East Asia to South-East Asia and Africa 195 CHAPTER 9. MARITIME PIRACY 207 9.1. Maritime piracy off the coasts of the Horn of Africa 209 CHAPTER 10. CYBERCRIME 217 10.1. Identity theft 219 10.2. Child pornography 225 CHAPTER 11. REGIONS UNDER STRESS: WHEN TOC THREATENS GOVERNANCE AND STABILITY 235 The impact of cocaine trafficking on stability 239 11.1. Theimpact of cocaine trafficking on the Andean Region 241 11.2. The impactof cocaine trafficking on West Africa 249 11.3. The impactof cocaine trafficking on Mesoamerica 253 The impact of heroin trafficking on stability 259 11.4. The impact of heroin trafficking on South-West and Central Asia 261 11.5. The impact of heroin trafficking on South-East Europe 267 11.6. The impact of heroin trafficking on South-East Asia 273 The impact of minerals smuggling on Central Africa 277 The impact of maritime piracy on the Horn of Africa 283 CONCLUSION 291 ENDNOTES 299 Case studies of transnational threats i KEY FINDINGS KEY FINDINGS There are two ways of looking at transnational prominent flows are the movement of workers from organized crime (TOC): some focus on multi-crime Latin America to North America and from Africa to groups of professional criminals, while others focus Europe. on illicit markets. Most irregular migrants to the United States of To date, most of the attention has been given to the America enter clandestinely across the south-west first approach, addressing TOC groups, using the border of the country and over 90% are assisted by tools of arrest and seizure, and this approach has professional smugglers, but this flow appears to be seen some success at the national level. declining in response to the global financial crisis. National successes have often pushed trafficking The routes for migration from sub-Saharan Africa flows into other countries, however, with the flow to Europe have shifted dramatically in response to often settling along the path of least resistance, fre- enforcement efforts, so the smugglers are often quently in countries with little capacity to bear the opportunistic entrepreneurs. While the number of burden of TOC. detected migrants has recently declined dramati- cally, it is too early to draw conclusions about the Most organized crime problems today seem to be long-term trend. less a matter of a group of individuals who are involved in a range of illicit activities, and more a With regard to heroin trafficking, some 95% of matter of a group of illicit activities in which some the global heroin supply comes from opium poppy individuals and groups are presently involved: strat- cultivated in Afghanistan, and the majority of this egies aimed at the groups will not stop the illicit is consumed in Europe, the Russian Federation and activities if the dynamics of the market remain countries en route to these destinations. unaddressed. The route to the Russian Federation takes advan- Most TOC flows begin on one continent and end tage of cross-border social and ethnic linkages in the on another, often by means of a third, so only inter- new states of Central Asia, mostly moving the ventions at the scale of the problem – global – are heroin in small amounts on board commercial and likely to have a sustained effect. private vehicles. The first step in addressing these global markets is In contrast, the flow to Europe appears to be more to better understand them, and the detailed descrip- highly organized, with much larger shipments cross- tions of contraband flows offered in this report is a ing a greater number of borders involving states step in that direction. with much higher interdiction capacity. With regard to cocaine trafficking, the vast bulk of With regard to human trafficking, a greater variety the flow proceeds from the Andean region to North of nationalities of victims have been detected in America (often via Central America) and Europe Europe than in any other region, while victims from (often via West Africa). China have been detected in a greater variety of Consumption of cocaine in the United States has countries than any other nationality. been in long-term decline since the 1980s and has After a strong increase at the end of the Cold War, dramatically dropped off since 2006. This is likely human trafficking to Europe for the purpose of due to enforcement efforts in Latin America, but sexual exploitation appears to have stabilized, with these efforts have increased competition and vio- women from a wide variety of countries displacing lence between trafficking groups. the Eastern European victims that formerly domi- International attention and intervention, as well as nated this market. political changes, appear to have substantially Although frequently characterized as migrant smug- reduced trafficking through West Africa after 2007. gling, the debt-bondage of illegal Chinese labourers Demand in Europe appears to be stabilizing after is so great that the phenomenon is better classified rapid growth in the last decade. as human trafficking, and this flow appears to be firearms trafficking growing as overseas commercial interests expand. With regard to , traffickers service two primary markets for illicit arms – those With regard to migrant smuggling, the two most who need weapons for criminal purposes (such as Case studies of transnational threats v KEY FINDINGS the flow from the United States to Mexico), and With regard to maritime piracy, the traditional those who need them for political ones (such as the robbery on the high seas has been transformed into flow from Ukraine to Africa). Different types of a form of kidnapping for ransom, as Somali pirates, arms and techniques are implicated in each case. sometimes directed by shipping industry insiders, seek a growing number of targets further and fur- Most of the firearms trafficked from the United ther from their national waters. States to Mexico appear to be acquired from licensed dealers by straw purchasers and then trafficked With regard to cybercrime, the Internet has allowed across the border in very small batches by a large traditional acquisitive crime, such as identity theft, number of couriers taking advantage of the high and transnational trafficking, such as the trade in levels of cross-border traffic. This long-standing child pornography, to vastly increase in scope. flow appears to be stable. Online identity theft is still far less common than With massive stocks of arms from the Soviet era, other forms of the crime, but the potential is much Ukraine remains vulnerable to trafficking through greater, and appears to be most advanced in the misuse of export documents and corruption, but United States in terms of both victims and perpetra- the pressures of the financial crisis are likely to be tors. offset by the global decline in civil conflict. The production and distribution of child pornogra- With regard to environmental resource traffick- phy used to be both dangerous and inefficient, and ing, the trafficking of wildlife from Africa and there was a risk that the rise of the Internet would South-East Asia to other parts of Asia and the traf- increase demand to the point that multi-crime ficking of timber to China and Europe represent groups began victimizing children for profit. To two of the best documented flows. date, this risk does not appear to have been realized, though, as an increasing share of child pornography While the poaching of large species in Africa cap- distributed is exchanged between peers on a non- tures most of the attention and the demand for commercial basis. rhinos appears to have recently increased dramati- cally, the growing consumption of a wide variety of smaller species in South-East Asia could have greater long-term environmental consequences and almost Transnational organized crime can have an impact certainly brings more money to organized crime. on political stability in vulnerable countries, includ- ing both in countries where insurgencies are funded Measures have been taken to prevent the import of though trafficking (in the Andean Region, South illegally harvested wood, but corruption and “timber and Central Asia and Central Africa), and in coun- laundering” in third countries are undermining tries where violence and corruption pose a serious these efforts, even as demand grows. challenge to the rule of law (West Africa and Meso- america). With regard to product counterfeiting, the out- sourcing of production to Asia has fuelled global Global strategies are required to address each TOC economic growth, but it has also created opportuni- problem, in some cases involving better regulating ties for counterfeiting.