(Alligator Mississippiensis) in North Carolina. (Under the Direction of Drs
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ABSTRACT GARNER, LINDSEY AMANDA. Population Status of the American Alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) in North Carolina. (Under the direction of Drs. Christopher E. Moorman and David T. Cobb). American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) occur throughout the southeastern United States; however, little is known about the current distribution of alligators at the northern extent of their range. To determine the relative abundance and distribution of alligators in North Carolina, we conducted night spot light counts using a 2-phase sampling approach. We focused occupancy surveys over a broad area in 2012, and focused subsequent abundance surveys in areas of high predicted occupancy probability the following year. We fit a series of binomial N-mixture models to estimate site-specific abundance while accounting for imperfect detection of alligators. Null occupancy probability was 0.28 (SE ± 0.05) while null abundance was 0.3025 (SE ± 0.025) alligators/km. Alligator occurrence increased in southern and eastern portions of the study area, and decreased as water salinity increased. Increasing abundance of alligators was related to a decrease in water salinity. Overall, alligators occurred at very low densities or were not present throughout large areas in eastern North Carolina. Their distribution was clumped where individuals were protected due to restricted human access, which was similar to the distribution described from surveys conducted 30 years prior. Changes in population size and structure may occur over decades, and we recommend long-term monitoring to determine population and distribution changes. In North Carolina, there is an increased interest in developing an alligator harvest season, but the potential impact of a harvest on northern populations is unknown. We developed a female-specific stage-structured matrix model of alligator life history at the northern extent of its range to determine the population growth rate (λ). We conducted sensitivity and elasticity analyses to identify the contribution each vital rate made to λ, followed by a life-stage simulation analysis to account for vital rate variance in our model by using hypothesized variation in parameter probability densities. Finally, we assessed the relative sensitivities of λ to various theoretical harvest scenarios on a population of adult and sub-adult female alligators in eastern North Carolina. We determined a population growth rate of 1.0156. Adult female survival had the highest sensitivity and elasticity values, while hatchling survival had the least influence on λ. Because adult female alligator survival has the greatest impact on the population, only minimal total adult alligator population harvest (3%) with a minimal likelihood of adult females taken within that harvest (5%) resulted in a scenario with a median λ greater than 1. Additional data could improve the accuracy and precision of these models, but current available data coupled with harvest data from other states suggests harvest of alligators in North Carolina is not sustainable. © Copyright 2017 Lindsey Amanda Garner All Rights Reserved Population Status of the American Alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) in North Carolina by Lindsey Amanda Garner A thesis submitted to the Graduate Faculty of North Carolina State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology Raleigh, North Carolina 2017 APPROVED BY: _______________________________ _______________________________ Christopher E. Moorman David T. Cobb Committee Co-Chair Committee Co-Chair _______________________________ Beth Gardner DEDICATION To my parents, for their unwavering support ii BIOGRAPHY Lindsey Garner was born and raised in Roanoke Rapids, North Carolina. She spent her weekends exploring the vast wildernesses of Halifax County in search of largemouth bass, fence lizards, arrowheads, and fossils with her dad. On these adventures she developed a deep appreciation and understanding of all things wild. After the devastation of Hurricane Fran in 1996, Lindsey and her family rescued and raised an orphaned grey squirrel; the tangible experience was a surprisingly profound catalyst for her growing interest in wildlife ecology and animal behavior. Lindsey attended North Carolina State University and received her Bachelors of Science in Zoology in 2009. During this time, she was able to participate in a pivotal internship in the back swamps of Roanoke River National Wildlife Refuge, opening her eyes to a future career in wildlife biology. Afterwards, she worked several seasonal positions in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida, where she developed a specific interest in wetland ecology. In 2011, she returned to North Carolina State University to pursue her master’s degree in Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology. Currently, Lindsey is project coordinator of University of Florida’s long-term wading bird monitoring project throughout the Greater Everglades. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would first and foremost like to thank my committee for their guidance, support, and enduring patience throughout this process. This research would not have been possible without funding from the North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission and countless personnel who tirelessly completed hundreds of miles of night time surveys in such a small window of time. I’d especially like to thank Tommy Hughes and Robbie Norville of the NCWRC who were instrumental in coordinating alligator survey teams and equipment. Thanks to the staff at Camp Bryan and Mr. Sprunt of Orton Pond for granting permission to access their property, and provide assistance with surveys. Nicolas Flanders, Alex Kumar, Scott Mills, Hardin Waddell, and Adia Sovie provided help with statistical analyses and for that I am forever grateful. I would like to give an especially huge thanks to Brian Smith who was instrumental in helping me conquer that R code. To my entire Croc Docs family in South Florida, as the persistent and invaluable support network needed to finish my degree, thank you. I would also like to thank the spell check function in Microsoft word, because without it, I’d be a master of science who still couldn’t spell “Louisiana.” Thanks to my wonderful indoor cats, for loving me unconditionally, and more importantly, not talking back in my moments of insanity. A special thanks to Nick for his unwavering support and encouragement through the long haul. Finally, I would like to thank my parents, and my sister Jill, for their support, patience, and acceptance of my desire to survey remote swamps at night, in search of apex predators. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... vi LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................... viii CHAPTER 1: Relative Abundance and Distribution of the American Alligator in North Carolina ..........................................................................1 ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................2 METHODS .............................................................................................................4 Study Area ...................................................................................................4 Data Collection ............................................................................................6 Analyses .......................................................................................................8 RESULTS .............................................................................................................10 DISCUSSION .......................................................................................................12 MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS ..................................................................15 LITERATURE CITED .......................................................................................16 TABLES AND FIGURES ...................................................................................21 CHAPTER 2: Estimating Population Dynamics and Harvest Potential for the American Alligator Population in North Carolina ............................ 25 ABSTRACT ..........................................................................................................26 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................27 METHODS ...........................................................................................................28 Parameter Estimation ...............................................................................30 Model Development...................................................................................31 Model Structure.........................................................................................32 Model Validation and Parameter Adjustments ........................................34 Potential Management Strategies .............................................................39 RESULTS .............................................................................................................40 DISCUSSION .......................................................................................................42