Assessing the distribution of a Vulnerable felid species: threats from human land use and climate change to the kodkod Leopardus guigna G RIET A.E. CUYCKENS,MIRIAM M. MORALES and M ARCELO F. TOGNELLI Abstract Climate change and habitat fragmentation are Introduction considered key pressures on biodiversity, and mammalian carnivores with a limited geographical distribution are limate change and destruction of natural habitats particularly vulnerable. The kodkod Leopardus guigna,a Cthrough human activities are major threats to terres- small felid endemic to the temperate forests of southern trial biodiversity. These pressures have led to substantial ’ Chile and Argentina, has the smallest geographical range range contractions and species extinctions (Parmesan & 2003 2003 2004 of any New World felid. Although the species occurs in Yohe, ; Root et al., ; Opdam & Wascher, ), 2008 protected areas in both countries, it is not known how well including for mammals (Schipper et al., ), and species 1991 these areas protect the kodkod either currently or under at high altitudes are particularly vulnerable (Innes, ; 1997 2003 climate change scenarios. We used species distribution Diaz & Bradley, ; Burns et al., ; Thomas et al., 2004 models and spatial analyses to assess the distribution of the ). Knowledge of the geographical distribution of species 2000 kodkod, examining the effects of changes in human land use is essential to assess these threats (Regan et al., ; Conrad 2006 and future climate change. We also assessed the species’ et al., ) but data on the distribution of rare species is 2006 2009 present representation in protected areas and in light of limited (Hernandez et al., ; Thorn et al., ). ff climate change scenarios. We found that the kodkod has One of the most e ective ways to protect species and already lost 5.5% of its range as a result of human land use, their habitats is through the establishment of protected particularly in central areas of its distribution with areas. Historically, protected areas were established op- intermediate habitat suitability. Climate change, together portunistically, assigning places with low potential for with human land use, will affect 40% of the kodkod’s present economic development and high potential for tourism 2000 2004 potential distribution by the year 2050. Currently, 12.5%of (Margules & Pressey, ; Rodrigues et al., ; Burkart 2007 2012 the species’ potential distribution lies in protected areas and et al., ; Marinaro et al., ). To assess the value of this will increase to 14% in the future. This increase does not, protected areas for protecting a particular species, a GAP 2000 however, mean an increase in protected habitat but rather a analysis (Jennings, ) can be performed by overlaying a reduction of the species’ total potential range; a relatively distribution map of biological attributes onto a map of larger percentage will be protected in Argentina than in protected areas. Chile but the species is more susceptible to extinction in The kodkod Leopardus guigna is a rare, small felid Argentina and the Chilean Matorral. native to Chilean and Argentinian temperate forests, with the smallest geographical range of the New World Keywords Argentina, kodkod, Leopardus guigna, MaxEnt, felids (Oliveira, 1994; Nowell & Jackson, 1996; Sunquist & protected areas, species distribution modelling, temperate Sunquist, 2002, 2009; Acosta & Lucherini, 2008). The forests species is categorized as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List (Acosta & Lucherini, 2008) and in Argentina (Díaz & Ojeda, This paper contains supplementary material that can be 2000); in Chile, it is classified as Inadequately Known found online at http://journals.cambridge.org and Rare (CONAMA, 2007). Two subspecies are recognized (Cabrera, 1957; Wilson & Reeder, 2005; Napolitano et al., 2013); L. guigna tigrillo (5L. guigna molinae), which in- habits the Chilean Matorral and sclerophyll woodlands and forests in northern and central Chile (between the GRIET A.E. CUYCKENS (Corresponding author) and MIRIAM M. MORALES Consejo Coquimbo and BíoBío Regions), and L. guigna guigna, Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Centro de Estudios which inhabits Valdivian temperate rainforest and north Territoriales Ambientales y Sociales, Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional de Jujuy, Alberdi 47, 4600 San Salvador de Jujuy, Patagonian forest (from the Araucanía to Aysén Regions, Argentina. E-mail [email protected] including Chiloé Island), and the Andean Patagonian forest MARCELO F. TOGNELLI IUCN–Consevation International Biodiversity (western Neuquén, Río Negro and Chubut Provinces in Assessment Unit, Conservation International, Arlington, Virginia, USA, and south-western Argentina; Osgood, 1943; Nowell & Jackson, Instituto Argentino de Investigaciones de Zonas Áridas, Consejo Nacional de 1996 2004 Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Mendoza, Argentina ; Freer, ). The restricted distribution of the kodkod fi Received 21 March 2013. Revision requested 7 June 2013. and its habitat speci city make it particularly vulnerable to Accepted 9 September 2013. changes in land use and climate (Araújo et al., 2008). © 2014 Fauna & Flora International, Oryx, Page 1 of 8 doi:10.1017/S003060531300135X http://journals.cambridge.org Downloaded: 08 Oct 2014 IP address: 170.210.241.133 2 G. A. E. Cuyckens et al. FIG. 1 Presence records of the kodkod Leopardus guigna in Chile and Argentina overlain on (a) the Chilean Matorral and Valdivian Temperate Forest, and (b) protected areas and the species’ distribution as recorded on the IUCN Red List (Acosta & Lucherini, 2008), with states. The rectangle on the inset indicates the location of the main map in South America. Part of the kodkod’s distribution includes Andean Matorral ecoregion is a 100 km-wide strip extending along mountain ranges. Species inhabiting mountain ranges may the central part of the Chilean coast. It is characterized by a shift their distributions to higher elevations or latitudes as a temperate Mediterranean climate, with rainy winters and result of climate change (Hughes, 2000) but it is not clear if dry summers. About 95% of the plant species of this region and how much the kodkod could migrate to higher altitudes are endemic to Chile (WWF, 2006). because permanent snow naturally limits its distribution (Dunstone et al., 2002). There are several protected areas within the kodkod’s range on the border between Argentina Methods and Chile, and these areas are unlikely to be transformed to other uses as it is difficult to grow crops in this region (FAO, Sources of biological data 2001). However, parts of these protected areas are currently To avoid bias in geographical representation we included covered with permanent snow and thus are not suitable data representing the entire range of the kodkod (Sánchez- habitat for the kodkod (Gálvez et al., 2013). The aims of this Fernández et al., 2011). We included material from the study were to update knowledge of the distribution of following collections: American Museum of Natural History L. guigna based on the largest data set of historical and (AMNH, New York, USA), Field Museum of Natural current records hitherto collected, to assess the effects of History (FMNH, Chicago, USA), Colección del Grupo de current human land use on the species’ distribution, and to Ecología Comportamental de Mamíferos (CGECM, Bahía predict the species’ future distribution, taking into con- Blanca, Argentina), and Museo Argentino de Ciencias sideration the effects of climate change. We also assess the Naturales ‘Bernardino Rivadavia’ (MACN, Buenos Aires, kodkod’s present representation in protected areas in light Argentina). We also compiled distribution records from of climate change. the literature (Osgood, 1943; Nowell & Jackson, 1996; Walker et al., 2003; Acosta-Jamett & Simonetti, 2004; 2004 2005 2008 Study area Freer, ; Tapia Friz, ; Coldwell, ; Gálvez et al., 2013), unpublished field records from the Sistema The Valdivian Temperate Forest of southern Chile and de Informacion Biodiversidad of the Administration of adjacent Argentina spans 35–48°S (Fig. 1a; Olson et al., 2001; National Parks (Argentina), records provided by colleagues WWF, 2006). It is recognized as an ecoregion with a high (the project Conservation and ecology of the huiña cat conservation priority by the Global 2000 initiative (Olson Leopardus guigna in the north-east of Patagonia, Argentina, et al., 2001). Minimum and maximum mean annual tem- courtesy M. Monteverde), and localities shared by the Cat peratures are 7–21 and 4–13 °C in the north and south of this Specialist Group (courtesy G. Acosta-Jamett). We compiled ecoregion, respectively (CONAMA, 2007). Total annual a total of 104 presence records spanning a period of 79 years. precipitation varies between 1,000 mm in the north and After cleaning the data (i.e. excluding records lacking en- . 6,000 mm in the south (Huber, 1979). The Chilean vironmental variables or records that could not be © 2014 Fauna & Flora International, Oryx, 1–8 http://journals.cambridge.org Downloaded: 08 Oct 2014 IP address: 170.210.241.133 Distribution of a Vulnerable felid 3 TABLE 1 Percentage contribution of the five (of a total of 22) variables that have the greatest contribution to the model of the present potential distribution of the kodkod Leopardus guigna (Present) and to models using three climate change scenarios (GFDL-CM2, CCMA- CGCM3.1-T63, CSIRO-MK3.0; Ramirez & Jarvis, 2008). See text for further details. Present GFDL-CM2 CCMA-CGCM3.1-T63