SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Monthly Aug 2012 1 August 2012 This report is available online and can be FORECASTviewed together with research studies and Update Reports at www.securitycouncilreport.org. For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at www.whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. Overview Contents of This Issue

France will preside over the Security Coun- Briefings in consultations are likely on: UNSMIS (Syria) 1 cil in August. n issues of concern, by the Department of Status Update since our July Political Affairs (reviving the practice of Forecast 2 There will be one debate during the month, “horizon scanning”); on Kosovo and the work of the UN Mission Lebanon 5 n Sudan and South Sudan, twice, by the in Kosovo (UNMIK). Sudan and South Sudan 6 Secretariat in line with resolution 2046 Briefings, to be followed by consultations, that calls for briefings every 15 days; Somalia 8 are expected on: n the UN Interim Security Force in Abyei Mali 10 (UNISFA) and the Secretary-General’s n the UN Supervision Mission in Syria Kosovo 12 (UNSMIS), most likely by the head of UN most recent report; DPRK (North Korea) 13 peacekeeping, Hervé Ladsous and pos- n the work of the UN Regional Centre for sibly also by the UN-Arab League Joint Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia UNRCCA (Central Asia) 15 Special Envoy Kofi Annan; (UNRCCA), by its head, Miroslav Jena; Notable Dates 16 n the Middle East, by the Secretariat; and and n options for possible steps to ensure the n the work of the Democratic People’s n Syria, prior to the 19 August expiry of the full restoration of constitutional order in Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions mandate of UNSMIS; and and territorial integrity of Mali, possibly Committee by its Chair, Ambassador n Somalia, right after the scheduled 20 the Deputy Secretary-General, and likely José Filipe Moraes Cabral (Portugal). August political transition in the country. also by representatives of the AU and the In addition, consultations are planned on: Economic Community of West African A formal session will be needed to adopt a n the UN Interim Force in Lebanon States (ECOWAS). resolution renewing the mandate of UNIFIL. (UNIFIL);

UNSMIS (Syria) Envoy Kofi Annan would also brief and On 11 July, Council members were briefed whether the UNSMIS mandate would be by Annan on his mediation efforts, including Expected Council Action renewed for a further period. his 9 July meeting with Syrian President The mandate of the UN Supervision Mis- Bashar al-Assad. Annan said neither the Key Recent Developments sion in Syria (UNSMIS) ends on 19 August. government nor the opposition had The overall level of violence in Syria has The Council will hold two rounds of consul- embraced his six-point plan and asked continued to escalate, with the government tations on UNSMIS in August which will Council members to endorse the Action increasing its military operations in popula- likely focus on the Secretary-General’s Group communiqué of 30 June and insist on tion centres and armed opposition groups assessment of the security situation in Syria consequences for Syria’s non-compliance intensifying attacks against government and recommendations for the mission’s with Council decisions. (The communiqué forces and installations, particularly in future. (Resolution 2059 renewed UNSMIS called for all parties to recommit to the six- Damascus and Aleppo. On 14 July the for a final period of 30 days and requested point plan and mapped out steps for a ICRC determined that the fighting in Syria reporting within 15 days.) Syrian-led political process.) met its threshold for an internal armed con- It seems likely that peacekeeping head flict, i.e. civil war. The UN estimates 10,000 After Annan’s briefing, the UK circulated a Hervé Ladsous—who visited Syria in late killed since the crisis began in March 2011, draft resolution co-sponsored by France, July to assess the situation—will brief the while other monitoring groups report Germany, Portugal and the US that, under Council in early August. It was unclear at figures as high as 17,000. Chapter VII, endorsed the communiqué, press time if UN-Arab League Joint Special >>page 3

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Update since our July Forecast n Israel/Palestine: High Commissioner for outgoing head of BNUB (S/PV.6799). Chair- UK, Council members held an interactive Human Rights Navi Pillay, briefing Council person of the Burundi PBC configuration, dialogue with the chairs of the PBC country- members in consultations on 2 July, said Ambassador Paul Seger (Switzerland), also specific configuration. the settlement of Israeli citizens in the occu- briefed. The briefing was followed by n Yemen: On 17 July, Special Adviser on pied territories is prohibited by international consultations attended by Landgren and Yemen Jamal Benomar briefed Council law and that settlement activity is linked to Council members. members in consultations noting that sev- discriminatory policies and practices apply- n DRC: On 10 July, the Council held consul- eral political, humanitarian and security ing only to Palestinians. On 25 July, Special tations on the DRC, and heard a briefing by challenges continued to hamper the transi- Coordinator Robert Serry briefed the Special Representative and head of tion process and described interference Security Council prior to its quarterly open MONUSCO, Roger Meece, via video-tele- from former President Ali Abdullah Saleh debate on the Middle East (S/PV.6816). conference on the escalating violence in and his kinsmen as a key obstacle to stabil- Serry reiterated his warning that negative North Kivu. On 16 July the Council issued a ity. Benomar also updated the Council on trends regarding the peace process, the press statement (SC/10709), condemning preparations for the national dialogue con- Gaza blockade, the solvency of the Pales- all outside support to all armed groups in ference which is hoped will feed into the tinian Authority, and Israeli settlement the DRC and demanding that all forms of constitution-making process enabling policy consistently undermined the com- support to them cease immediately. The general elections by February 2013. mon goal of a negotiated two-state solution. Council was briefed by Meece in consulta- n Cyprus: On 19 July, the Council adopted In remarks to the press after the debate, the tions again on 30 July regarding the resolution 2058 extending the mandate of Arab Group expressed concern over the situation in the DRC. UNFICYP until 31 January 2013. The resolu- diminishing chances for peace, deplored n UNOWA (West Africa): On 11 July, Said tion passed with 13 votes in favour and two the unwillingness to react to the deteriorat- Djinnit, the Special Representative and abstentions (Azerbaijan and Pakistan). ing situation and encouraged the Council to head of UNOWA, introduced the Secretary- Negotiations on the text were contentious, visit Palestine to inspect the facts on the General’s latest report (S/2012/510) on particularly with respect to how a future ground as “the least the Council can and West Africa to Council members (S/ review of UNFICYP might be referenced in should do.” PV.6804). He noted that the recent coups in the preambular paragraphs. In its explana- n Libya: On 2 July Pillay also briefed Council Mali and Guinea-Bissau, armed insurrec- tion of vote (S/PV.6809), Azerbaijan said the members in consultations on Libya. On 10 tion and continuing instability in parts of resolution did not place the required July the Council issued a press statement Côte d’Ivoire, piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, emphasis “on a results-oriented process,” welcoming Libya’s 7 July elections terrorist threats and attacks in the region, and that its proposal to reflect a sense of (SC/10704). On 18 July, Special Represen- and the increase in illicit drug trafficking urgency of the review had not been given tative Ian Martin briefed the Council for the meant that the security situation presents a “due consideration.” Pakistan said not last time in his capacity as the head of new wave of challenges to governance, enough time was given to all Council mem- UNSMIL saying the elections were an peace consolidation and conflict preven- bers to engage in open and transparent “extraordinary accomplishment” marred by tion. The UNOWA report provides negotiations and that the final language some violent incidents, mostly in the east considerable detail on events in Mali and was not fully reflective of the Secretary- (S/PV.6807). The Libyan permanent repre- the wider Sahel since the 22 March coup, General’s recommendations. sentative also addressed the Council, emphasising the mediation efforts of n Iraq: On 19 July, UNAMI head Martin Kobler stating that “according to all observers, the ECOWAS and the complexity of the situa- briefed the Council (S/PV.6811) on the elections were free and fair and met all inter- tion in the region. Secretary-General’s report (S/2012/535). national standards.” The briefing was n PBC: On 12 July, the Council held an open Martin noted that seven years after the followed by consultations. debate to discuss the fifth annual report of adoption of the constitution, key institutions n Tribunals: On 5 July the Council issued a the PBC (S/2012/70), which was published had yet to be established and fundamental press statement (SC/10700), welcoming on 30 January (S/PV.6805). The open legislation remained outstanding, including the commencement of the functioning of debate was chaired by María Angela Hol- the establishment of the Federation Coun- the Arusha branch of the International guín, the Foreign Minister of Colombia cil, the strengthening of the judicial system, Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (which held the Council presidency in July). legislation on revenue-sharing and hydro- on 1 July 2012. The Council also recalled Among the briefers were the Secretary- carbons and the protection of minorities. the contribution of the ad hoc and mixed General; the current PBC Chair, The permanent representative of Iraq also tribunals, the ICC, as well as chambers in Ambassador Abulkalam Abdul Momen addressed the Council. The briefing was fol- national tribunals in the fight against impu- (Bangladesh); and the former PBC Chair, lowed by closed consultations. On 25 July, nity, and called on states to cooperate with Ambassador Eugène-Richard Gasana the Council unanimously adopted resolu- these judicial bodies. (Rwanda). Joachim von Amsberg of the tion 2061 renewing UNAMI for a further year. n Burundi: On 5 July, the Council heard a World Bank participated in this meeting, as n Counter Terrorism: On 19 July the Council briefing by Karin Landgren, the Secretary- did representatives of 29 member states. issued a press statement (SC/10717) con- General’s Special Representative and On 13 July, in response to a request by the demning the terrorist attack aimed at Israeli

2 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Status Update

tourists in Bulgaria on 18 July, causing sev- n Côte d’Ivoire: On 26 July, the Council n Guinea-Bissau: On 26 July, Special Repre- eral deaths of Israeli and Bulgarian citizens adopted resolution 2062 renewing the man- sentative and head of UNIOGBIS Joseph and numerous injuries. date of UNOCI until 31 July 2013. The Mutaboba introduced the Secretary- n Afghanistan: The Council issued a press resolution adjusted the military component General’s latest report (S/2012/554) on statement (SC/10722) on 23 July wel­ to 8,837 personnel, in line with the Guinea-Bissau to Council members (S/ coming the 8 July “Tokyo Conference Secretary-General’s recommendation. On PV.6818). Ambassador Maria Luiza Viotti on Afghanistan” and the conclusions of 18 July, Special Representative and head of (Brazil), chair of the Guinea-Bissau PBC the conference. UNOCI Albert Gerard Koenders briefed the configuration, also briefed. Representatives n Sudan/Darfur: On 24 July, the Council held Council and said “it is important that the UN of the ECOWAS and the Community of a briefing (S/PV.6813) followed by consulta- continue to play its supportive role to assist Portuguese Speaking Countries made tions among members on Darfur. Ibrahim the government’s efforts to stabilise the statements. Portugal introduced a draft Gambari, the Joint AU-UN Special Repre- security situation, protect civilians, restore press statement after the briefing and con- sentative for Darfur, addressed the Council. state authority, promote reconciliation, and sultations, but at press time, the statement On 31 July the Council adopted resolution undertake post conflict development assis- had not been issued. 2063 renewing the mandate of UNAMID for tance” (S/PV.6808). a year.

n On Thursday, 12 July, there were reports Media reports indicate continuing defec- UNSMIS (Syria) (continued) of an escalation of violence in Tremseh tions from the Syrian military, bringing the renewed UNSMIS for 45 days and threat- near Hama, resulting in significant casu- number of generals who have fled to Turkey ened sanctions if the Syrian government alties. On Friday, Annan said that the to approximately 27 as well as an undis- did not cease the use of heavy weapons Syrian government violated its commit- closed number of regular soldiers. In and withdraw from population centres ments under resolutions 2042 and 2043 addition, a Syrian parliamentarian and Syr- within ten days. Russia had also circulated and once again urged consequences for ia’s ambassadors in Cyprus, Iraq and the a draft resolution endorsing the communi- non-compliance. Over that weekend, United Arab Emirates defected. qué, renewing UNSMIS for three months UNSMIS visited Tremseh and confirmed The defection by Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass on but making no reference to any conse- that the attack involved the use of artil- 6 July has been perceived as significant quence for non-compliance. There were lery, mortars and small arms. It also said since he is considered a former member of numerous rounds of negotiations regarding that specific groups and houses, mainly Assad’s inner circle. Tlass made his first the UNSMIS renewal up to the vote on 19 of army defectors and activists, appear to public statement on 24 July, when he said it July, when the UK draft resolution was have been targeted. The government was “the duty of Syrians to unite, to build a vetoed by Russia and China with Pakistan denied the use of heavy weapons. free, democratic Syria.” (Some analysts and South Africa abstaining. (Russia did not n On 13 July, media reports indicated that note that Tlass has been flagged for a lead- call for a vote on its draft.) US officials were concerned about Syr- ership role in any post-Assad transition.) ia’s stockpile of chemical weapons. On On 20 July the Council unanimously 22 July, the US said it would “hold The Arab League hosted a Syrian opposi- adopted resolution 2059, which renewed accountable” any Syrian official involved tion conference with some 250 participants the UNSMIS mandate for a final period of in the use of such weapons. On 23 July, in Cairo on 2 July, during which general 30 days and took into consideration the Israeli officials reported that Syrian stock- agreement was reached on support for the Secretary-General’s recommendations to piles were being moved as a precaution Free Syrian Army and the exclusion of reconfigure the mission in light of the dete- to avoid chemical weapons falling into Assad from any transition process. How- riorating security situation in Syria. The rebel hands. The same day the Syrian ever, there was no agreement on forming a resolution also conditioned any further foreign ministry said chemical weapons body to represent a unified opposition. renewal of UNSMIS on the cessation of the would be used only in the event of an There continue to be rifts over views on the use of heavy weapons by the government external attack on the country. On 24 credibility of internal versus external oppo- and a reduction in violence by all sides. (On July, Russia said Syria should strictly sition groups, military intervention and 25 July, Ladsous announced the drawdown adhere to the international ban on the use Islamic political parties. The Arab League of half of the 300 authorised military observ- of chemical weapons. ministerial committee on Syria (chaired by ers. On 24 July, Lt. Gen. Babacar Gaye of n On 18 July a targeted bombing in Damas- Qatar and including Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Senegal took over as acting head of cus killed four senior security officials of Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Sudan) UNSMIS after Maj. Gen. Robert Mood of the Syrian government, including the met in Doha on 22 July, calling on Assad to Norway ended his tour on 20 July.) defence and interior ministers as well as “renounce power” for “a safe exit.” The There were three particularly significant Assad’s brother-in-law. On 24 July, statement also called on the Free Syrian developments during the Council’s negoti- Assad reshuffled his top security posts. Army rebels and the opposition to form a ations on the UNSMIS renewal: transitional government. On 24 July, Arab

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 3 League Secretary-General Nabil el-Araby control) demonstrated by the regime’s Council and Wider Dynamics said the emphasis must be on a peaceful ability to regain control relatively quickly of Council members will continue to be unani- transfer of power in Syria. Syria rejected the positions captured by the opposition. mous in their concern about the devastating demand for Assad to renounce power. level of violence in Syria. Nevertheless, few It seems that while the Syrian government believe the situation will improve in the The conclusions from the 6 July Friends believes it can prevail in the conflict coming weeks to sufficiently meet the con- of Syria meeting in Paris — which involved militarily there appears to be some ditions set out in resolution 2059 for a 107 states, but not China or Russia — acknowledgement that in any post-conflict further renewal. also emphasised that Assad must situation the regime will be unable to gov- relinquish power. ern Syria credibly. A significant majority of Council members seem to share the view of the P3 that there Human Rights-Related It is unclear when and whether military or is no role for UNSMIS given the current situ- Developments political considerations will finally tip the cri- ation in Syria. The mission was to support sis towards its end game. Nevertheless, it UN High Commissioner for Human Annan’s six-point plan and observe a reduc- seems both the government and armed Rights Navi Pillay briefed Security Coun- tion in violence, neither of which have opposition groups are fully intent on the cil members in consultations on Syria on occurred. On the other hand, a few mem- military option. Meanwhile, the negative 2 July. Pillay reported deliberate target- bers may agree with China and Russia, impact on regional security is manifesting ing by the government of medical preferring to have the mandate renewed for itself with serious spillover effects, including facilities and use of some of those facili- a further period to allow more time for a pockets of violence in northern Lebanon; ties as detention centres; the arbitrary political solution and to lend support to the military build-up by Turkey on the bor- arrest, detention and systematic torture Annan’s plan. (However, Council members der, increasing tension with the Kurdistan of detainees by government authorities; are mindful that Annan has not made any Workers’ Party (PKK) and revived talk of and rape and sexual violence against public statements following the 19 July “safe zones”; the late July spike in terrorist men, women and children in detention veto. It is unclear what, if any, outcome attacks in Iraq potentially linked to the Syr- or during house raids. (On 16 July, the there might be vis-à-vis Annan’s mediation ian crisis; the risk for insecurity on the acting Special Representative on Sexual efforts following his 27 July meeting with the border with the Israeli-occupied Golan Violence in Conflict echoed such reports Secretary-General in London.) Heights; and heightened international rhet- of sexual violence by government forces oric about chemical weapons. Given the current deadlock in the Council it and their armed militias, or Shabiha, appears that active management of the Syr- describing them as “alarming.”) Options ian crisis is poised to pass out of Council Options for the Council include: On 6 July the Human Rights Council hands in the near term. After the veto, n maintaining the mission at its currently France, Germany, the UK and the US said adopted a resolution (A/HRC/RES/20/22) reduced level of 150 military observers they would continue to find ways to pres- condemning the gross human rights vio- and a civilian component; lations and indiscriminate targeting of sure the Syrian government outside of the n reducing the mission to a small political Council. In addition, during the 25 July civilians in Syria by government authori- office with liaison tasks and limited verifi- open debate on the Middle East, Qatar and ties and the Shabiha. The resolution also cation and reporting capacity; or expressed concern about the reports it Saudi Arabia, on behalf of the Arab Group, n withdrawal or non-renewal of the mission. received from its Commission of Inquiry announced a forthcoming General Assem- about human rights violations by both It seems the most likely option—if both bly draft resolution calling for political government and opposition forces. sides continue to pursue the military transition in Syria. option—would be not to renew the It seems the next juncture for active Council Key Issue UNSMIS mandate. It is also possible that involvement will likely be an endorsement The key issue for the Council is that Syria is the Secretary-General may make the oper- of any possible post-conflict assistance. now in a state of civil war, and the conflict ational decision to withdraw the mission has become militarised to such a degree prior to the mandate’s expiry due to secu- UN Documents that it seems there is currently little political rity considerations. space remaining to negotiate a peaceful Security Council Resolution solution to the crisis. (On 19 July, Mood If UNSMIS is not renewed then the • S/RES/2059 (20 July 2012) extended said that the escalation of violence had Secretary-General could maintain the UNSMIS for a final period of 30 days. “added value” of the reporting capacity reached an unprecedented level.) Security Council Withdrawn and Vetoed under the UN Country Team. Underlying Problems Resolutions The military balance of power in Syria is not A further option for the Council is to request • S/2012/538 (19 July 2012) was the UK shifting away from the government despite a de-briefing from both Mood and Annan’s draft UNSMIS resolution vetoed by the defections from the military and more former deputy Jean-Marie Guéhenno as China and Russia with abstentions by organised armed rebel groups (which lack “lessons learned” exercise. Pakistan and South Africa. both central military and political strategic • S/2012/547/Rev.2 (17 July 2012) was

4 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org decrease from approximately 11,800 troops the withdrawn Russian draft resolution a year ago.) renewing UNSMIS for three months. SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Secretary-General’s Report Council members issued a press statement Monthly • S/2012/523 (6 July 2012) included on 18 July, expressing concern over cross- options for the UNSMIS renewal. border exchanges of fire, incursions, AUG 2012FORECAST abductions and arms trafficking across the Security Council Letters Lebanese-Syrian border. (This was the first 25 July open debate on the Middle East that • S/2012/542 (13 July 2012) was from Council pronouncement on the implemen- the crisis in Syria had the potential to exac- Special Envoy Kofi Annan regarding tation of resolution 1701 since April 2008.) erbate sectarian tension in Lebanon, citing the Tremseh attacks. the intensification of cross-border incidents • S/2012/522 (5 July 2012) was the final The press statement also welcomed the and the 18 July clashes in Tripoli in northern communiqué of the 30 June meeting reconvening of Lebanon’s National Dia- Lebanon between Sunni and Alawi commu- of the Action Group for Syria in logue, which on 11 June committed the 8 nities. The clashes followed a terrorist Geneva. March and 14 March coalitions to Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s policy to “disassoci- attack in Damascus earlier that day, which ate” Lebanon from major international left four top Syrian political and military offi- decisions on Syria. Mikati, who heads a cials dead. Lebanese media reports Lebanon Hezbollah-led cabinet, has emphasised the indicate there was also an incident the same day in Sidon in southern Lebanon, Expected Council Action policy’s importance to maintain stability during which three Syrian nationals were In August the Security Council is expected within Lebanon. severely beaten after reportedly expressing to extend the mandate of the UN Interim However, the 24 July session of the support for the Damascus attack. Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) for a further National Dialogue was postponed until 16 year. This will be the sixth renewal since the August because the 14 March opposition Also on 18 July, Hezbollah head Hassan cessation of hostilities between Lebanon coalition decided not to attend. (14 March Nasrallah, in a speech to mark the sixth and Israel in 2006. Given the increased is headed by former Prime Minister Saad anniversary of the Israel-Hezbollah war, tension and an uncertain political climate Hariri, son of Rafiq Hariri—a former prime reiterated support for the Syrian govern- in the region, in particular spill-over effects minister assassinated in 2005.) According ment and warned Israel against any attack from the Syrian crisis in northern Lebanon, to Lebanese media reports, 14 March boy- on Lebanon. it is possible that the resolution might cotted the meeting because in its view the On 22 July, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin reflect some of these developments. The National Dialogue process had failed to Netanyahu said the “great threat” to Israel mandate expires on 31 August. adequately address the issue of Hezbol- from the Syrian conflict is that the Damascus Key Recent Developments lah’s arms in addition to concerns that the government might collapse and its stock of On 17 July, UN Special Coordinator for Leb- 8 March-held telecommunications ministry chemical weapons and missiles could fall anon Derek Plumbly briefed Council was reluctant to release information to Leb- into the hands of Hezbollah. The same day members in consultations on develop- anese security bodies regarding alleged Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said ments and the Secretary-General’s 28 June assassination attempts of 14 March coali- Israel would not tolerate the transfer of report, which portrayed the situation in UNI- tion members. (On 5 July two detonators advanced weapons to Hezbollah. FIL’s area of operations as stable. However, were found on top of an elevator in the On 11 July, the Special Tribunal for Leba- it underscored that full respect for the terri- building where parliamentarian Butros non received Lebanon’s 2012 contribution torial integrity, sovereignty and political Harb has his office. On 4 April there was an — 49 percent of the Tribunal’s budget. On independence of Lebanon was under- assassination attempt on Samir Geagea, 19 July the pre-trial judge set 25 March mined by instability in the region, in head of the Lebanese forces. Both Harb 2013 as a tentative start date for the trial in particular the Syrian crisis and the lack of a and Geagea are aligned with 14 March and absentia of those accused in the assassina- durable peace with Israel. are critical of the Syrian government.) tion of Hariri and 22 others in 2005. Plumbly informed Council members that On 24 July, Plumbly met with Mikati in Bei- Key Issues some Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) troops rut and expressed his concern over the The key issue for the Council is how to in southern Lebanon would redeploy north cross-border incidents in the north, particu- encourage Israel and Lebanon to move due to instability on the Syrian-Lebanese larly in the Wadi Khaled area. Lebanon from the status quo of the last six years— border. As a consequence, UNIFIL had decided to increase LAF deployment on the cessation of hostilities—toward a ceasefire. increased its operational activities to com- northern border with Syria with authorisa- But the current regional political climate pensate for the temporary loss of LAF tion to return fire shortly after a 7 July makes the likelihood of near-term progress capacity. Concurrently, UNIFIL, in coopera- incident in which Syrian shelling into Leba- on this issue remote. tion with the Department of Peacekeeping non caused two deaths and several injuries. Operations (DPKO), is working towards UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East The temporary redeployment of the LAF to implementing recommendations for troop Peace Process Robert Serry said during the the north is an issue potentially impacting reductions to approximately 11,200. (A UNIFIL’s capacity.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 5 Other issues include the regular Israeli Secretary-General’s Reports Sudan and South Sudan overflights and the fact that Hezbollah main- • S/2012/502 (28 June 2012) was the tains significant military capacity in violation Expected Council Action latest report on resolution 1701. of resolutions 1559 and 1701. In August, the Council is likely to hold con- • S/2012/244 (20 April 2012) was the sultations twice, in accordance with Options latest report on resolution 1559. resolution 2046, to discuss the situation in The most likely option for the Council is to Security Council Press Statements Sudan and South Sudan. simply renew the UNIFIL mandate as it cur- • SC/10712 (18 July 2012) welcomed rently stands for another year. The Council is also expected to discuss in the reconvening of the National Dia- consultations the Secretary-General’s A further option available to the Council logue and expressed concern over most recent report on the UN Interim Secu- could be to re-energise its working pro- border violations in the north. rity Force for Abyei (UNISFA), which it cesses with TCCs, perhaps by inviting Security Council Letters receives every 60 days under the terms of them, along with the UNIFIL force com- • S/2012/477 (13 June 2012) was resolution 2047. mander, to meet with the Council Working Lebanon’s declaration from the 11 Group on Peacekeeping prior to the formal June National Dialogue meeting (the UNISFA’s mandate expires on 17 November. meeting with TCCs in the Council. In par- first since November 2010). Key Recent Developments ticular, there could be a focus on DPKO’s The Council maintained its intensive focus plans for a leaner force while maintaining Other Relevant Facts on Sudan/South Sudan issues in July. On 3 UNIFIL’s full capability to discharge its man- Special Coordinator for Lebanon July, UN High Commissioner for Human dated tasks. Derek Plumbly (UK) Rights Navi Pillay briefed Council members Council Dynamics in consultations. She expressed concern Special Envoy for the Implementation Council members agree that UNIFIL is an about the detention and maltreatment of of Security Council Resolution 1559 important stabilising factor between Israel protestors imprisoned in Khartoum and Terje Rod-Larsen (Norway) and Lebanon—especially in light of the other cities since mid-June for rallying Syrian crisis and increasingly belligerent UNHCR figures for Syrian Refugees in against the regime. Pillay also highlighted rhetoric between Israel and Hezbollah. Lebanon as of 25 July 2012 human rights violations occurring in South However, achieving a permanent ceasefire 31,596 Syrian refugees registered by the Kordofan and Blue Nile states in Sudan. seems remote and Council members UN in Lebanon with an additional 2,500 Regarding South Sudan, Pillay com- realise that continued calm in Lebanon being assisted pending registration. mended the efforts of the Juba-based may at present be the only achievable UNIFIL Force Commander government with respect to disarmament, goal. In this regard, Council members demobilisation and reintegration but also Maj. Gen. Paolo Serra (Italy) remain highly supportive of the National noted that sporadic human rights violations Dialogue process. Size and Composition of UNIFIL as of by South Sudanese soldiers had been 30 June 2012 reported during the disarmament process Most Council members agree that arms Authorised: 15,000 troops in Jonglei state. smuggling and disarmament remain key Current: 11,571 military personnel concerns but seem to accept that progress Troop Contributors: Armenia, Austria, On 10 July, Under-Secretary-General for is only likely in the nexus of the recently Bangladesh, Belarus, Belgium, Brazil, Peacekeeping Hervé Ladsous briefed the revived inter-Lebanese dialogue and Brunei, Cambodia, China, Croatia, Council in consultations on Sudan and improvement on the Israel-Syria track, Cyprus, Denmark, El Salvador, France, South Sudan. Ladsous reportedly said that which seems indefinitely postponed given FYR of Macedonia, Germany, Ghana, there had been a lack of progress in estab- the current Syrian crisis. Greece, Guatemala, Hungary, India, lishing the Joint Border Verification and Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, Nepal, Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM), which France is the lead country on Lebanon in Nigeria, Portugal, Qatar, Republic of the two countries had agreed to set up the Council. Korea, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, along their disputed border in 29 June 2011 UN Documents Spain, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Timor-Leste and 30 July 2011 agreements. He noted and Turkey that Sudan continued to reject the map that Security Council Resolutions Duration the AU proposed as a basis for discussions • S/RES/2004 (30 August 2011) about establishing the mechanism. renewed UNIFIL until 31 August 2012. March 1978 to present; mandate expires • S/RES/1757 (30 May 2007) estab- 31 August 2012 The Council held consultations on 26 July lished the Special Tribunal for Cost on Sudan and South Sudan. During the consultations, Haile Menkerios, Special Lebanon. 1 July 2011 to 30 June 2012: $545.47 Envoy of the Secretary-General on Sudan • S/RES/1701 (11 August 2006) called million (A/C.5/66/14) for a cessation of hostilities between and South Sudan, reportedly noted that Hezbollah and Israel. while he did not expect the parties to come to agreement on all issues separating them by the 2 August deadline set by the Council

6 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org in resolution 2046 for the conclusion of the should cease its support for rebel groups in negotiations, he was hopeful that there Sudan, while reiterating objections to the might be some progress on the establish- AU map as a basis for negotiations on bor- SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT ment of the Safe Demilitarised Border Zone der mechanisms. Kiir allegedly offered to Monthly and the JBVMM by the deadline. help mediate an end to the fighting between AUG 2012 Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation FORECAST Sudan and South Sudan held negotiations Army-North (SPLM-N), the rebel group that in Addis Ababa from 21 to 28 June. The dis- was the northern branch of the South Suda- of the more than 200,000 refugees from cussions focused primarily on their efforts to nese army before South Sudan became Sudan now residing in South Sudan and define the territory of the Safe Demilitarised independent in July 2011. Ethiopia. According to Guterres, malnour- Border Zone and establish the JBVMM. No ishment and the risk of contracting progress was made on these issues. On 22 July, South Sudan presented a pro- water-borne diseases are among the bur- posal to resolve outstanding differences On 25 June, South Sudan forwarded a letter dens facing the refugees. with Sudan on, inter-alia, border demarca- to the Council (S/2012/482) that Pagan tion, the status of Abyei, and oil wealth Protests against the regime continued in Amum, its chief negotiator, had sent to sharing. It proposes that international arbi- July in Khartoum and other towns and cit- Thabo Mbeki, the chair of the AU High-Level tration be used to determine the border in ies. Sudanese security forces have used Implementation Panel (AUHIP), which is disputed areas. It also proposes that the UN tear gas, batons, and rubber bullets to facilitating the peace talks. In the letter, and AU organise an Abyei referendum by disperse the protestors, and Sudanese Amum said that South Sudan found “deeply the end of 2012, with voter participation eli- activists have alleged that approximately troubling” the fact that an agenda for nego- gible to all Ngok Dinka residents of the 2,000 people have been detained since the tiations on several issues of contention Abyei, as well as people who have lived in protests began in June, according to an 11 between the countries—including oil wealth the region “for three…continuous years July Amnesty International-Human Rights sharing, nationality issues, and the status of immediately prior to 9 January 2005.” Watch statement demanding the release of Abyei—had not been established. Amum those arrested. The statement also suggested that AUHIP’s failure to set an With regard to oil wealth sharing, South accuses Sudanese security forces of tor- agenda for negotiations was problematic, Sudan offered in the proposal to restart oil turing detainees through sleep deprivation given the 2 August deadline established by production. As part of a package deal, it and beatings. the Council for the parties to conclude their would also offer Sudan $4.968 billion in negotiations on these outstanding matters. debt forgiveness and $3.245 billion in Sudan and South Sudan traded accusa- He added that either the AUHIP did not compensation to help it make up lost tions of military transgressions in July. grasp the urgency of resolution 2046 or that revenue resulting from South Sudan’s suc- Sudan sent a letter to the Security Council the Panel decided that discussion of these cession, which cost Sudan 75 percent of on 9 July (S/2012/526) in which it claimed issues should wait until after the settlement its oil reserves. South Sudan also offered that South Sudanese forces remained in of security matters which, according to Sudan fees of $9.10 and $7.26 per barrel three areas within Sudan’s borders— Amum, was Sudan’s preference. for transit of oil from South Sudan through Samaha in South Darfur state; Bahr Alarab Sudan’s Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Station, South Mairam in South Kordofan Sudan and South Sudan continued peace Company pipeline and its Petrodar pipe- state; and the Lake Abiad area, also in talks throughout July. During negotiations line, respectively. South Kordofan. On 20 July, AUHIP on 6 and 7 July in Addis Ababa, the parties released a statement indicating that it had agreed to adhere to a “comprehensive stra- Khartoum rejected South Sudan’s offer on received a letter from Amum alleging that tegic approach” that is based on principles 23 July, citing the need to resolve security South Sudanese troops had been attacked such as non-interference in each other’s issues along the Sudan-South Sudan bor- by Sudanese forces in Northern Bhar El internal affairs, non-aggression and trans- der before considering a proposal that dealt Ghazal state, a part of South Sudan that parency in their efforts to resolve the with oil wealth sharing. However, at press borders South Darfur state. Denying the outstanding issues separating them. time, media reports indicated that Sudan incident, Sudan said that its forces had had changed its stance and had expressed The negotiators reconvened in Bahir Dar, attacked Justice and Equality Movement willingness to discuss South Sudan’s offer a resort town in northwestern Ethiopia, on rebels in Darfur. on oil matters in the negotiations. 12 July. The agenda focussed on the Key Issues major unresolved issues separating Refugees have continued to flee conflict A key issue are the difficulties that Sudan Sudan and South Sudan, most notably and hunger in South Kordofan and Blue and South Sudan have faced at the negoti- border demarcation, oil wealth sharing Nile states in Sudan, making their way to ating table. and Abyei’s final status. Ethiopia and South Sudan. On 16 July, UN High Commissioner for Refugees António A related issue is how the Council chooses President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan and Guterres reiterated an appeal that his to respond to the slow pace of progress in President Salva Kiir of South Sudan met on agency had made on 22 June to interna- the negotiations, given that it set a three- the margins of the AU summit in Addis tional donors, asking for enhanced month deadline for the parties to resolve Ababa on 14 July. During the meeting, humanitarian assistance to serve the needs fundamental issues separating them, which Bashir reportedly said that South Sudan expires on 2 August.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 7 Another related issue is the apparent ongo- to develop strategies to stimulate construc- proposal to resolve pending issue ing border skirmishes between Sudan and tive negotiations between the Government with Sudan, which is called the South Sudan; although these incidents of Sudan and the SPLM-N. “Agreement on Friendly Relations have subsided in recent months, they con- With respect to UNISFA, the Council may and Cooperation.” tinue to arouse security concerns among consider working directly with the parties • S/2012/526 (9 July 2012) was from the parties. and the AUHIP to determine the geographi- Sudan to the Council claiming South Another important and continuing issue is cal parameters of the Safe Demilitarised Sudanese forced remained in three the humanitarian crisis in South Kordofan Border Zone. (It appears that there has areas within Sudan’s borders. and Blue Nile states. A related issue is the been a stalemate on establishing the buffer • S/2012/482 (25 June 2012) contained plight of the refugees who have fled these zone due to Sudan’s unwillingness to a letter from South Sudan to Mbeki, two regions for South Sudan or Ethiopia, accept the map proposed by AUHIP as a regarding the negotiations. where aid agencies and NGOs are strug- basis for negotiations of this issue.) gling to address their basic needs. Council Dynamics A further important issue is the allegations While Council members seem relieved that Somalia of human rights violations committed by violence between Sudan and South Sudan Expected Council Action Sudanese security forces in response to the has decreased and that the two parties Somalia will be on Council members’ minds recent protests against the government. have been negotiating with one another as the country approaches the 20 August over the past several weeks, there is none- With respect to Abyei, a continuing issue is deadline for the transition to permanent fed- theless concern that progress in the the inability of UNISFA to carry out its man- eral institutions. It is likely that the Council negotiations has been limited. At press dated border verification and monitoring will request a briefing on the political situa- time, with the 2 August deadline approach- support role because the parties have not tion in Somalia following the transition. A ing for compliance with resolution 2046, been able to make the agreements neces- press statement is also possible. several members have begun to consider sary to establish the Safe Demilitarised what steps could (or should) be taken to The authorisation for the AU Mission in Border Zone and the JBVMM. exert maximum leverage on the parties. Somalia (AMISOM) expires on 31 October. Options Several Council members increasingly view Key Recent Developments Options for the Council include: the situation in Abyei and the activities of Council members received a briefing in n commending progress that has been UNISFA in the broader context of Sudan- consultations on 24 July from the Special made by the parties since the adoption South Sudan relations. It appears that there Representative of the Secretary-General of resolution 2046 on 2 May, including are a couple of reasons for this perspective. Augustine Mahiga who addressed current the reduction of violence between them, First, the final status of Abyei continues to political developments in Somalia. As part the withdrawal of most security forces be one of the key challenges that the parties of the same consultations, the Somalia/ from Abyei and the return to the negoti- need to resolve. Second, UNISFA is man- Eritrea Sanctions Committee chair, Ambas- ating table; dated with a border-monitoring support role sador Hardeep Singh Puri (India) briefed n extending the 2 August deadline estab- along the Sudan-South Sudan border that it Council members on the work of the Com- lished in resolution 2046 for Sudan and has thus far not been able to carry out mittee and presented two separate reports South Sudan to comply with the resolu- because of lack of progress by the parties in of the sanctions Monitoring Group (on tion, as it appears they will be unable to implementing the JBVMM. Eritrea and on Somalia). meet this deadline; n dispatching a Council delegation to the The US is the lead country on Sudan-South From 2 to 3 July, the International Contact region to impress upon the parties the Sudan issues and on UNISFA. Group (ICG) on Somalia met in Rome. In its critical importance of making progress in communique, the ICG “reiterated its firm their negotiations; UN Documents determination that the Transition ends on 20 n acting under article 36(3) of the Charter, Security Council Resolutions August.” The ICG expressed concern over missed deadlines, but commended the recommending that the parties refer the • S/RES/2047 (17 May 2012) renewed advances made by AMISOM and others border disputes to the International Court the mandate of UNISFA. against the Islamist rebel group Al-Shabaab. of Justice, or alternatively to the Perma- • S/RES/2046 (2 May 2012) was on The communique also noted that Mahiga nent Court of Arbitration; and Sudan-South Sudan relations. n considering the imposition of measures and Hussein Arab Isse, Deputy Prime Minis- Secretary-General’s Report under article 41 of the UN Charter (i.e., ter and Minister of Defence of the Transitional sanctions), in keeping with resolution • S/2012/583 (25 July 2012) was the Federal Government (TFG), had signed an 2046, if they fail to meet the 2 August most recent Secretary-General’s action plan for halting recruitment and use deadline. report on UNISFA. of children by the armed forces. Letters The Council might also consider employing In Mogadishu, the transitional process faced • S/2012/569 (23 July 2012) contained a its ad-hoc Working Group on Conflict Pre- delays after the National Constituent Assem- summary of South Sudan’s 22 July vention and Resolution in Africa as a forum bly (NCA) failed to convene on schedule.

8 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org According to news reports, the 135 tradi- institutions.” The report reiterated the find- tional leaders responsible for selecting the ings of the World Bank that nearly 70 percent 825 members of the NCA had withheld their of TFG revenue between 2009 and 2010 SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT selections due to concerns over the draft was unaccounted for. In response, Presi- Monthly constitution. On 18 July, the TFG announced dent Sharif Sheikh Ahmed accused the AUG 2012 that the leaders had agreed on changes to Monitoring Group of being “against peace FORECAST the constitution. On 23 July, the Foreign in Somalia.” The report also related that the Affairs Council of the EU urged Somali lead- pirate leader Mohamed Abdi Hassan “Afw- Emergency Relief Coordinator’s report ership and other stakeholders to meet the 20 eyne” had been found travelling on a (S/2012/546), transmitted to the Council on August deadline and demanded the imme- diplomatic passport issued by the TFG with 13 July, cautioned that “the non-renewal of diate convening of the NCA. On 25 July, the the full knowledge of the President. At press the humanitarian exemption might result in NCA convened and began 9 days of discus- time the Foreign Minister of Somalia, sched- delays in the delivery of humanitarian assis- sions on the constitution. Ratification of the uled to address Council members on the tance in areas controlled by non-state draft constitution is expected in early August. political situation in Somalia on the morning armed groups.” of 31 July, was also expected to brief the At press time Council members were Human Rights-Related Sanctions Committee that afternoon. scheduled to hold an interactive dialogue Developments with the Somali Foreign Minister Abdullahi The Secretary-General’s report on resolu- On 5 July in a resolution on human rights Haji Hassan on 31 July, to be updated on tions 1844, 1862, 1907 and 2023 assistance to Somalia, the Human Rights political developments in Somalia. (S/2012/412), which demanded that Eritrea Council (HRC) expressed its continued cease all efforts to destabilise other states Also on 25 July, the Council adopted resolu- serious concern at the human rights and and engage constructively to resolve its tion 2060, renewing the mandate of the humanitarian situation in Somalia. The border dispute with Djibouti, was originally Monitoring Group on Eritrea and Somalia for HRC resolution, adopted without a vote, published on 8 June before being with- a period of 13 months and extending the strongly condemned grave and system- drawn and has not at press time been humanitarian exemption to the sanctions atic human rights abuses committed re-released (for more details please refer to regime for a period of 12 months. The reso- against the population, in particular by Al- our July Monthly Forecast.) lution continued measures added to the Shabaab and its affiliates, and called for Monitoring Group’s mandate by resolutions In an 11 July communique, the Intergovern- all parties to take immediate steps to pro- 2002 and 2023, as well as the charcoal ban mental Authority on Development (IGAD) tect women and children. The HRC also contained in resolution 2036. Additionally, “expressed concern on the possible prolif- extended the mandate of the UN Inde- the resolution provided an exception to the eration of reports on Somalia,” and asked pendent Expert on human rights in arms embargo in Somalia for military equip- that any reports be held in abeyance until Somalia for one year in order to support ment for the support of or use by the UN after the transition. the efforts of the TFG and Somali sub- Political Office in Somalia (UNPOS), and to national authorities to build respect for On 29 June the AU and Uganda signed a the arms embargo in Eritrea for non-lethal human rights into preparations for the Memorandum of Understanding on the weapons or equipment intended for human- post-transition period. The independent deployment of a Formed Police Unit con- itarian or protective use, in both cases as expert will report to the HRC at its twenty- sisting of 140 police personnel to Somalia approved in advance by the Sanctions fourth session, in September 2013. as part of AMISOM. On 11 July, the AU Committee. The resolution also reiterated signed an additional Memorandum of Key Issues that the transition will not be extended Understanding with Djibouti to deploy a A key issue for the Council is how best to beyond 20 August, and welcomed the rec- reinforced battalion of 1,000 troops to support the transitional process in the ommendation of the Monitoring Group that AMISOM. A car bomb in Mogadishu on 16 lead up to 20 August, and how best to a Joint Financial Management Board be July killed a former minister and injured six support a new administration in Somalia established for Somalia. others. On 17 July, TFG troops supported after the transition. In its report on Eritrea (S/2012/545), the by AMISOM attacked an Al-Shabaab camp Related major issues are the problem of Monitoring Group said it found no evi- in the Gedo region, killing four militants and spoilers and corruption within the TFG, espe- dence that Eritrea was directly supporting recovering a cache of weapons. cially as a new government develops. (Many Al-Shabaab. Nonetheless, the report In remarks to the press in advance of the 20 on the Council are worried that the transition argued that in all other respects Eritrea had July anniversary of the declaration of fam- will be a change in name only and that sub- failed to comply with Security Council res- ine in Somalia, the UN Humanitarian stantive changes to the composition of the olutions and remained a destabilising Coordinator for Somalia, Mark Bowden, Somali government will not take place.) force in the region. warned that more than 2.5 million people The continued implementation of In its report on Somalia (S/2012/544), the remained in need of aid. The same day, the AMISOM’s new strategic concept Monitoring Group called attention to the UN refugee agency reported the Somali (endorsed in resolution 2036) is likely to behaviours of spoilers, highlighting “perva- refugee population in neighbouring coun- remain an issue for the Council as well. sive corruption within the transitional federal tries had surpassed 1 million people. The

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 9 Resolution 2056 was the culmination of Options Secretary-General’s report requested intense diplomatic activity since 22 March, Main options for the Council include: by resolution 2023. n simply receiving a briefing on the political when young officers, led by Capt. Amadou Other situation in Somalia and taking no action; Sanogo, overthrew the civilian government of n issuing a presidential or a press state- • S/2012/546 (13 July 2012) contained President Amadou Toumani Touré, ahead of ment on the political situation in support the report of the UN Resident and presidential elections scheduled for 29 April of the transitional process; and Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia. in which Touré was not participating. That n specifically addressing potential spoilers • S/2012/544 (11 July 2012) contained same day, the Council issued a press state- and the corruption issue. the final report on Somalia of the Moni- ment (SC/10590) condemning the forcible toring Group on Somalia and Eritrea. seizure of power and calling for the “immedi- Council Dynamics • S/2012/545 (11 July 2012) contained ate restoration” of the deposed government. The Council enjoys general consensus on the final report on Eritrea of the Moni- issues relating to the end of the transition in toring Group on Somalia and Eritrea. The soldiers had abandoned a faltering Somalia, though some differences of opin- • S/2012/468 (20 June 2012) contained campaign against Tuareg rebels in the ion may develop as the 20 August deadline a 60-day AU report on AMISOM north of the country. The Tuareg, under the (which all agree should remain as a hard requested by resolution 2036. banner of the Mouvement national pour la deadline) approaches. Developments in libération de l’Azawad (MNLA), seized the the first weeks of August are likely to influ- northern half of the country and declared it ence how warm or critical the Council independent of Mali shortly after the coup. might be toward Somali stakeholders. Mali The situation was further complicated by Should the signatories to the roadmap for Expected Council Action the strong presence among the Tuareg of members of Al Qaeda in the Islamic ending the transition show progress In August the Council is expected to Maghreb (AQIM), which by July had gained towards the 20 August deadline without consider options set out by the Secretary- ascendancy and effectively sidelined being able to meet it, there are likely to be General on possible steps to ensure the full MNLA. AQIM—and its ally, the Islamist differences of opinion as to whether or not restoration of constitutional order and ter- group Ansar Eddine—imposed a regime of the deadline should be extended. ritorial integrity in Mali, including the terror in the vast area, including extrajudi- deployment of military forces by the Eco- The UK is the lead country on Somalia in the cial killings, the destruction of historic nomic Community of West African States Council, while India chairs the Sanctions monuments in Timbuktu, and the oppres- (ECOWAS), in line with resolution 2056. It is Committee and Russia has taken the lead sion of women, triggering the flight of an likely that the Deputy Secretary-General on legal issues related to piracy. estimated quarter of the population. will brief the Council. Representatives of UN Documents ECOWAS and the AU are also likely to brief. On 26 March, the Council issued a presiden- tial statement (S/PRST/2012/7) expressing Security Council Resolutions No Council action is expected immediately “serious concern” about the rapidly deterio- • S/RES/2060 (25 July 2012) extended after the briefing. rating humanitarian situation in the region the mandate of the Monitoring Group Key Recent Developments “which is further complicated by the pres- on Somalia and Eritrea for 13 months, On 5 July, the Council unanimously ence of armed groups and terrorist groups.” as well as the humanitarian exemp- adopted resolution 2056, expressing its full tion to the Somalia sanctions regime On 6 April, ECOWAS brokered a framework support for the joint efforts of ECOWAS, the for 12 months. agreement resulting in the military junta’s AU and the transitional authorities to • S/RES/2036 (22 February 2012) promise to give up power in return for an attempt to re-establish constitutionality and authorised an increase in AMISOM’s amnesty and the lifting of the sanctions the territorial integrity of Mali. troop strength as well as a further ECOWAS had imposed. The junta also expansion of its UN support package The resolution declared the Council’s agreed to a timetable for a return to consti- and imposed a ban on importing or readiness to consider backing a military tutional rule and elections. exporting Somali charcoal. deployment in Mali as proposed by During their visit to Côte d’Ivoire on 21 May, • S/RES/2023 (5 December 2011) ECOWAS “once additional information has Council members held a high-level meeting imposed new measures to prevent been provided regarding the objectives, with ECOWAS in Abidjan. The participants Eritrea from using the diaspora tax or means and modalities of the envisaged included ECOWAS Commission Chair revenues from its mining sector to deployment and other possible mea- Kadré Désiré Ouédraogo, as well as the commit further sanctions violations. sures.” It called on the Secretary-General Foreign Ministers of Côte d’Ivoire (current • S/RES/2002 (29 July 2011) was the last to support ECOWAS and the AU in prepar- chair of ECOWAS), Burkina Faso, Cape renewal of the mandate of the Monitor- ing the deployment plans and to report to Verde, Gambia, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria ing Group on Somalia and Eritrea. the Council by 31 July on “possible steps” and Senegal. Benin also attended as the Secretary General’s Report to restore constitutionality and the territo- current chair of the AU. • S/2012/412 (8 June 2012) was the rial integrity of Mali. On 12 June, the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC), meeting in New York on the

10 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org eve of its annual consultative meeting with The situation in the northern half of the members of the Security Council, issued a country has been even more critical. There communiqué calling on the Security Coun- have been reports of massive human rights SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT cil “as a matter of urgency” to “endorse the violations and inter-factional killings as well Monthly envisaged deployment of an ECOWAS as of kidnappings and ransom demands. AUG 2012 force [in Mali] and to lend its full support to FORECAST In view of the situation, the Justice Minister the efforts being exerted to this end.” in the transitional government, Malick The next day, at the sixth consultative meet- Coulibaly, formally requested on 18 July Key Issues ing between the two councils, Mali was that the International Criminal Court (ICC) The key issue for the Council is to assess prominently discussed. A communiqué investigate atrocities being committed by the feasibility of the ECOWAS proposed (S/2012/444) issued at the close of the the various Islamists and rebel groups in approach and the degree to which this is meeting acknowledged “the efforts of the north of the country. The request stated echoed by the Secretary-General. ECOWAS to explore options to restore that the crimes committed in northern Mali Determining the appropriateness and level peace and security in Mali in the context of since January involved “grave and large- of support for ECOWAS’ troops to be upholding its territorial integrity.” scale violations of human rights and of deployed in Mali and the mandate of that international humanitarian law.” This was followed by an informal interactive force would be the next key issue. meeting on Mali, requested by Togo, held on Human Rights-Related An important issue will be whether the 15 June in New York between Council mem- Developments upcoming proposals would be addressing bers and representatives of the AU PSC and In a resolution on the situation of human the situation in Bamako-controlled parts of ECOWAS. The Foreign Minister of Burkina rights in Mali, the Human Rights Council the country only or the entire Malian terri- Faso, Djibrill Yipènè Bassolé, who is leading (HRC) condemned human rights viola- tory, including the renegade north. ECOWAS’ mediation efforts on Mali, pro- tions and acts of violence committed in vided an update on his efforts and requested Massive human rights violations, especially northern Mali by the rebels, terrorist a mandate from the Council for the planned against women and non-Muslims in the groups and organised transnational ECOWAS military deployment in Mali. Tuareg-controlled parts of Mali, are an issue crime networks. The resolution, which of concern. On 18 June, the Council issued a press was tabled by the Group of African States statement (SC/10676) taking note of the and adopted without a vote during the A related issue is dealing with the growing request by ECOWAS for the Council to HRC’s June session, also expressed threat of terrorism in Mali and the wider authorise the deployment of a “stabilisation support for current efforts by the AU and Sahel region. ECOWAS to settle the crisis and invited force” in Mali and expressing Council mem- A further issue is the use of the ICC to the UN High Commissioner for Human bers’ readiness to further examine the address some of the violations in Mali, both Rights to monitor the human rights situa- request “once additional information has by the radical Islamists in northern Mali and tion in the north of Mali and to report to the been provided regarding the objectives, by the military in Bamako. means and modalities of the envisaged Council at its next (September) session. deployment and other possible measures.” Options Reacting to the destruction of sites of reli- Options for the Council include: ECOWAS deployed a Technical Assessment gious significance, including in the World n receiving the briefing and options from Mission (TAM), led by Brig-Gen. Mohammed Heritage site of Timbuktu, two UN human the Secretariat as well as the conclusions Lai, Chief of Staff of the ECOWAS Standby rights experts on 10 July strongly con- from the ECOWAS-led military assess- Force, from 7-18 July, to assess the feasibil- demned serious violations of cultural rights ment team and postponing action until a ity of deploying troops in Mali. and the right to freedom of religion and further careful consideration of ECOWAS’ belief in northern Mali. The HRC’s inde- On 25-26 July, the ECOWAS Committee of military plans; or pendent expert in the field of cultural rights, Chiefs of Defence Staff (CCDS) held an n receiving the briefing and then adopting Farida Shaheed, said that for the local emergency meeting on Mali in Abidjan to a resolution authorising the deployment population the destruction of tombs was a consider the report of the TAM, which would of an ECOWAS’ force in Mali. denial of their identity, beliefs, history and later have to be endorsed by the Heads of dignity. The special rapporteur on freedom An immediate option could be requesting State of ECOWAS. of religion or belief, Heiner Bielefeldt, the appointment by the Secretary-General The situation in Mali, meanwhile, has contin- observed that attacks on places of worship of a Special Envoy on Mali as a step towards ued to deteriorate, with reports of massive and the desecration of cemeteries violated forging a more effective approach to the human rights abuses and extrajudicial kill- the human rights of the entire community. complex issues relating to the country. ings. On 25 July, Human Rights Watch Shaheed and Bielefeldt echoed the Council Dynamics Prosecutor of the International Criminal reported that soldiers loyal to the 22 March There is consensus among Council mem- Court in reminding the perpetrators that coup leader Captain Sanogo had “forcibly bers that the situation in Mali is intolerable deliberate attacks against historical reli- disappeared” 20 soldiers alleged to have and should be reversed. Council members gious sites may constitute war crimes. been linked to a failed counter-coup in April. are unanimous in their condemnation of the

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 11 22 March coup, in insisting on the re-estab- Press Statements ground for rebels, pointing to reports in the lishment of constitutionality and in rejecting media that Ammar Abdulhamid, a Syrian • SC/10590 (22 March 2012) was on the the secessionist pretensions of the northern opposition figure, had visited Kosovo in late “forcible seizure” of power in Mali and rebels. The Council, however, has not given April. Those articles had reported an Asso- called for the restoration of the consti- serious consideration around an approach ciated Press interview with Abdulhamid in tutional order. towards resolving the complex issues relat- which he was quoted as saying, “We come • SC/10676 (18 June 2012) was on ing to the north of the country, though the here to learn”, making linkages between ECOWAS’ request to the Council to presence of radical Islamists there and their the Kosovo Liberation Army’s experiences authorise the deployment of a “stabili- activities, including kidnappings of western- and Syrian opposition groups. sation force” in Mali. ers and other terrorist acts, are of particular The response of the P3 in particular seemed interest. It appears that France, which is to be that if there was substance to these leading on this issue in the Council, is in allegations then hard evidence should be principle interested in supporting actions Kosovo presented. (Another Council member that would curb the problem, including opined that, if the accusations were true, deployment of the ECOWAS stabilisation Expected Council Action the Council should be concerned.) Several force. Togo, the only ECOWAS member on The Council in August is scheduled to hold Western members had questioned whether the Council, has a strong interest in getting a its third debate this year on the UN Mission it was necessary for the Council to discuss Council resolution on the troop deployment in Kosovo (UNMIK). Farid Zarif, the Special this matter in the first place. in Mali as well. But Council support for such Representative and head of UNMIK, is expected to brief the Council on develop- an action will depend largely on a number of Other violent incidents in Kosovo occurred ments and the latest Secretary-General’s factors, including a specific request from the in recent months. On 28 June, more than 50 report, which was due by 27 July. transitional authorities in Mali and the provi- people were injured in clashes between sion of a credible military plan by ECOWAS. No Council action is expected. Resolution Kosovo police and about 70 young Serbs 1244 (1999), which established UNMIK, who were travelling to the historic site of UN Documents stipulated that the mission would continue Gazimestan, to mark the anniversary of the Security Council Resolution until the Council decided otherwise. Battle of Kosovo in 1389. In response, the • S/RES/2056 (5 July 2012) was a reso- head of the Organization for Security and Key Recent Developments lution expressing the Council’s full Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) mission in On 17 July, Council members held consul- support for the joint efforts of Kosovo strongly condemned the violence, tations on UNMIK. Russia called the ECOWAS, the AU and the transitional calling for a thorough investigation into the previously unscheduled meeting to discuss authorities in Mali trying to re-establish events, including into allegations of exces- specific concerns, namely the killing of two constitutionality and territorial integrity. sive use of force by some police officers. Serbs in Kosovo and reports that Libyan Presidential Statement and Syrian rebels had visited Kosovo for On 1 June, two NATO-led Kosovo Force • S/PRST/2012/7 (26 March 2012) training purposes. Hervé Ladsous, head of (KFOR) peacekeepers were injured as they expressed concern about the rapidly the Department of Peacekeeping Opera- attempted to remove roadblocks erected deteriorating humanitarian situation in tions, briefed members providing an update by local Serbs north of Mitrovica in pre- the region. on attacks against minorities—including dominantly Serb northern Kosovo. In a Security Council Letters Serb returnees—in Kosovo. The number of press release, KFOR said that the activity incidents targeting minorities, including was to improve freedom of movement not • S/2012/466 (20 June 2012) transmit- attacks against Orthodox churches in only for KFOR but “for all people in ted the conclusions of the first meeting Kosovo, had increased since the publica- Kosovo.” At least three Kosovo Serbs were of the AU’s Support and Follow-up tion of the Secretary-General’s report of 27 also reportedly injured. Group on the Situation in Mali. April (S/2012/275), Ladsous noted, • S/2012/439 (13 June 2012) was from Serbs in Kosovo voted peacefully in a runoff although this was not necessarily part of a President Boni Yaya of Benin, Chair- to the Serbian presidential election on 20 broader trend. He also observed that fig- man of the AU, on the situation in Mali. May. (The OSCE had brought voting mate- ures for the first half of this year pointed to a • S/2012/444 (13 June 2012) was from rials to polling stations in Kosovo and decrease in the number of returnees to Ambassador Baso Sangqu (South returned them to the Serbian electoral com- Kosovo, relative to the equivalent period Africa) containing the joint communi- mission for counting.) President Tomislav last year. qué issued after the sixth consultative Nikolić assumed office on 31 May. meeting between the UN Security Regarding the shooting of the two Serbs on Nikolić—a former extreme nationalist and Council and the AU Peace and Secu- 6 July, Ladsous said that an investigation now leader of the Serbian Progressive rity Council. into the killings was underway and that the Party—has said that he is in favour of acces- Latest Secretary General’s Report EU Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX) sion to the EU but would never renounce Kosovo as an integral part of Serbia. • S/2012/510 (29 June 2012) was on was involved. UNOWA. It seems that Russia addressed the issue of On 24 July, Secretary-General Ban Ki- Kosovo possibly being used as a training moon visited Kosovo as part of a regional

12 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org trip, which included Belgrade the day A further issue is the decision on 2 July of before. In Kosovo, Ban met with UNMIK the International Steering Group for and international partners, including Kosovo—comprising 23 European coun- SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT KFOR, EULEX and the OSCE, in addition tries, Turkey and the US—to end Kosovo’s Monthly to the authorities in Pristina. (It was the first “supervised independence.” This will entail AUG 2012 time that the Secretary-General had visited the closing of the International Civilian FORECAST Kosovo—which is not a UN member— Office in September. since its declaration of independence in to avoid action and rhetoric that would A broader issue for the Council is the impli- 2008.) Ban reiterated upon arrival in inflame tensions. It seems some of these cations of developments in Kosovo for the Kosovo that an overriding theme of his members will be keen to emphasise the wider region, where neighbouring coun- regional visit was the importance of dia- need for the Kosovar authorities to protect tries also have sizeable ethnic minorities. logue and mutual respect. the rights of non-ethnic Albanians, includ- Options ing guaranteeing the safety of religious and During the consultations on 17 July, Russia As on previous occasions, the Council cultural sites. apparently said that it hoped the Secretary- could receive the briefing from Special Rep- General’s visit would be in line with UN Documents resentative Zarif but take no action. resolution 1244 (it was). The resolution, Security Council Resolution which remains the authoritative Council Alternatively, the Council could issue a • S/RES/1244 (10 June 1999) autho- resolution on the issue, reaffirmed the sov- statement acknowledging the decision to rised NATO to secure and enforce the ereignty and territorial integrity of what is end Kosovo’s “supervised independence” withdrawal of Yugoslav forces from now Serbia, and called for “substantial while expressing the concerns of various Kosovo and established UNMIK. autonomy and meaningful self-administra- members vis-à-vis the situation in Kosovo. tion for Kosovo.” Such a statement could place a premium Secretary-General’s Reports on adherence to the rule of law in Kosovo. • S/2012/275 (27 April 2012) covered Human Rights-Related the period from 16 January to 15 April Developments Council members might choose to elaborate 2012) on the reported presence of Syrian and Lib- Briefing the Security Council on 14 May, Latest Council Meeting Record yan armed opposition members in Kosovo Zarif stressed that there should be no and discuss whether measures should be • S/PV.6769 (14 May 2012) let-up in the combined efforts of UNMIK taken to investigate the matter further. and the Kosovar authorities on human rights issues that are fundamental to Council Dynamics reconciliation and to the protection of The Council is deeply divided on the issue DPRK (North Korea) the rights of minority communities of Kosovo. Strained relations among the P5 Expected Council Action throughout Kosovo. These, he said, on other Council agenda items in recent In August, the Council will hold regular particularly included progress in deter- months are unlikely to improve the pros- 90-day consultations on the Democratic mining the fate of the missing, creating pects for anything approaching Council People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and be conditions for safe voluntary returns, unity on the issue. briefed by Ambassador José Filipe Moraes the fair adjudication and resolution of Cabral (Portugal), the chair of the DPRK property claims and full and effective Six Council members have recognised Sanctions Committee (1718 Committee). implementation of the legal frameworks Kosovo—the current four EU members, for the protection and preservation of the US and Colombia. These countries No Council action is expected. cultural and religious heritage. often emphasise the need to be forward- looking and realistic about its status as a Key Recent Developments Key Issues sovereign country. They have also pointed In June, this year’s final report of the Panel Important issues that Council members are to the importance of the freedom of move- of Experts (PoE), which assists the 1718 likely to address during the debate include: ment in northern Kosovo, including the Committee, was made publicly available. n the freedom of movement of KFOR and fulfilment of KFOR’s and EULEX’s lawful The report had first been submitted to the EULEX personnel in northern Kosovo; mandates, and rejected the support of Committee and was accompanied by an 11 n the seeming increase in attacks against parallel structures in the north. May letter signed by all seven of the experts. minorities in Kosovo; and It was submitted by the PoE to the Council Conversely, Russia has consistently reiter- n the declining numbers of Serb returnees on 11 June and circulated through a presi- ated that resolution 1244 remains the to Kosovo. dential note of 14 June (S/2012/422). The international legal basis for a settlement in publication of the report is notable because Another issue is the role of the Kosovar Kosovo. It emphasises that any attempt by the equivalent report from 2011 remains an authorities in northern Kosovo and the Pristina to exert authority over the Serb “internal document” of the Council due to refusal of Kosovo Serbs to recognise Pris- municipalities in northern Kosovo could concerns China had at the Committee level. tina. Related to this is the next phase of the destabilise the situation. Other members, (One of the experts, Xiaodong Xue [China] Belgrade-Pristina talks, following the forma- including those who joined the Council this never signed last year’s final report.) tion of a new Serbian government in July. year, have sought to encourage both sides

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 13 This year’s final report states that the DPRK PoE’s recent report notes that the imple- Human Rights-Related continues to “reject and violate” Council mentation of this sanction “remains deeply Developments resolutions 1718 (2006) and 1874 (2009). problematic.” Because there is no definitive (These resolutions, which imposed sanc- list of what constitutes “luxury goods”, it is In her opening statement to the June tions on Pyongyang, were respectively left to member states’ discretion. The DPRK session of the Human Rights Council, adopted following the DPRK’s two nuclear is accordingly able to exploit differences in UN High Commissioner for Human tests.) The PoE report notes ongoing member states’ interpretations to acquire Rights Navi Pillay observed that the situ- investigations into several illicit shipments desired goods. ation in the DPRK remained of serious of arms-related materiel originating in the concern particularly the issue of political Concerning the panel itself, in a letter of 27 DPRK, some of which date back several prison camps, public executions and June (S/2012/493) the Secretary-General years. Two of these shipments were report- persisting food shortages. She called on noted that—after consulting the Com­ edly destined for Syria. One of the cases the authorities in Pyongyang to allow mittee—he had reappointed the seven involved containers of chemical protection access to independent experts and experts. During the reappointment process, equipment that “bore clear traces of manu- organisations. Noting that there had Pakistan noted that it would be desirable to facture” in the DPRK. The report notes that been reports of DPRK citizens forced to have broader geographic representation the US has designated the intended recipi- return to their country after seeking inter- on the panel—a point supported by Guate- ent in Syria for suspected involvement in national protection, Pillay also urged mala. (At present, the panel comprises Syrian weapons of mass destruction neighbouring countries to respect the nationals from each of the P5 countries, (WMD) programmes. principle of non-refoulement (which pro- Japan and the Republic of Korea [ROK].) tects refugees from being returned to A second case was reported by France in On 22 June, the US and the ROK conducted places where their lives or freedoms April this year following the seizure in Novem- military exercises near the latter’s border could be threatened). ber 2010 of an illicit shipment of goods used with the DPRK. The land manoeuvres, to manufacture artillery munitions, originat- which were accompanied by three-day Key Issues ing from the DPRK. The shipment, which the naval exercises in the Yellow Sea, were the A key issue for the Council is the DPRK’s PoE report said contained “aluminium alloy allies’ biggest since the Korean War. In flouting of previous Council resolutions and tubes usable for making rockets”, was also response, Pyongyang asserted that it the threat of an escalation of tensions on the destined for Syria. would “further bolster up its nuclear deter- Korean Peninsula. Regarding the transfer to or from the DPRK rent for self-defence” and said that the use A related issue is whether Kim Jong-un is of prohibited nuclear or other WMD and of its flag in the exercises to represent an steering the DPRK in a different direction ballistic missile items, the PoE notes that enemy command post was “an extremely from that of his father and if this path might there have been no new reported incidents grave military action and politically moti- be compatible with reinvigoration of talks of non-compliance. However, it states vated provocation.” with the international community concern- that investigations of previous incidents On 30 May, English-language media ing the country’s nuclear programme. continue, including possible military coop- reports indicated that changes made to the eration with Myanmar, prohibited under Options DPRK’s constitution earlier this year for the resolution 1718. Council members could receive the briefing first time proclaimed the country a “nuclear- in consultations and make statements but The report also refers to the military parade armed” nation. take no action at this point. on 15 April in Pyongyang, which show- The DPRK announced on 18 July that its cased several ballistic missiles. One newly One option might be discussing the bene- leader, Kim Jong-un (who is in his late revealed missile was on an eight-axle trans- fits of the chair of the 1718 Committee twenties), had been given the title of “Mar- porter erector launcher, which the DPRK briefing the wider membership later in the shal.” This top military rank in the country had “not previously demonstrated its year on the work of the Committee and the was held by both his predecessors. The capacity” to build. The panel said it would PoE, similar to the briefing on 9 July by the announcement came shortly after news further examine the issue. Although not chair of the Iran Sanctions Committee. that Vice Marshal Ri Yong-ho, who had mentioned in the report, the launcher is been promoted to Chief of the General Council Dynamics believed to be of Chinese origin. How the Staff and Politburo under Kim Jong-il, had Long-standing divisions exist among the P5 matter was referenced in the report seems been dismissed from his posts due to “ill- on how front-footed the Council should be to have been a matter of discussion; it ness”. Analysts speculated whether the in condemning the DPRK’s continued viola- appears that the equipment was exported high-level reshuffle was part of a wider tion of the sanctions regime against it. to the DPRK Ministry of Forestry for civilian- move by Kim Jong-un to establish his own These differences manifested themselves use activities. leadership style and embark on a genera- following Pyongyang’s failed missile launch Under resolution 1718, the Council also tional shake-up of the military, which has on 13 April, when the US and China in par- decided that member states should not sell had a dominant role in the political and ticular had divergent views as to the scope or transfer “luxury goods” to the DPRK. The economic direction of the country. of additional sanctions measures. In the absence of a third nuclear test by the DPRK or further similarly provocative action, it

14 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org seems unlikely that the Council would appreciation for the efforts of UNRCCA in agree to action designating additional responding to regional challenges and its DPRK entities or individuals. contributions to the implementation of the SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy. Monthly Council members are likely to closely The statements also highlighted the Cen- follow signs coming out of the DPRK in AUG 2012 tre’s engagement in addressing challenges FORECAST the coming months. These may indicate in Kyrgyzstan. whether the country’s long-standing mili- by ethnic conflict, resource management tary-first emphasis and premium on the Jena visited Kyrgyzstan on 7 September concerns, terrorism and general instability. principle of self-reliance are still being pro- 2011 with Pierre Morel, the EU Special Rep- moted, or if the youthful new leader might resentative for Central Asia, and Adam An emerging issue is the potential impact for focus more on economic reforms, as has Kobieracki, Director of the Organisation for the region and UNRCCA’s role in this con- been reported. Security and Co-operation in Europe text of the upcoming withdrawal of most of (OSCE) Conflict Prevention Centre. A joint the international troops from Afghanistan. UN Documents statement issued on the same day reaf- Options Security Council Resolutions firmed the commitment of the UN, the One option for Council members is to sim- • S/RES/2050 (12 June 2012) extended OSCE and the EU “to support efforts ply receive the briefing. the mandate of the PoE until 12 July towards stabilization, reconciliation, eco- Another option for Council members is to 2013. nomic and social development and issue a press statement, as it has done on • S/RES/1874 (12 June 2009) condemned democratization in Kyrgyzstan.” several occasions in the past, and reaf- the DPRK’s 25 May 2009 underground The first-ever report of the Secretary- firm its support for UNRCCA’s activities in nuclear test, expanded the sanctions General on the use of preventive diplomacy the region. regime and established a PoE. (S/2011/552) was released on 26 August • S/RES/1718 (14 October 2006) 2011. The report noted that key elements to Council Dynamics expressed grave concern over the maximise preventive diplomacy’s chances Some Council members are concerned DPRK’s nuclear test, imposed sanc- of success were: early warning, flexibility, about the recent fighting in the region, in tions and set up the 1718 Committee. partnerships, sustainability, evaluation particular the Gorno-Badakhshan province Presidential Note and resources. of Tajikistan adjacent to Afghanistan. More- • S/2012/422 (14 June 2012) contained over, they feel that Afghanistan should also During the period since the last briefing by the PoE’s 2012 final report. be included in the UNRCCA scope due to Jena, intermittent political and crime- its regional significance. Letter related violence in different parts of the • S/2012/493 (27 June 2012) was from region within the UNRCCA area of opera- UN Documents the Secretary-General reappointing tion continued to flare up. Secretary-General’s Report the PoE. Background on UNRCCA • S/2011/552 (26 August 2011) was the UNRCCA was inaugurated on 10 Decem- first-ever report on the use of preven- ber 2007 as a special political mission by tive diplomacy. UNRCCA (Central Asia) the Department of Political Affairs with the Press Statements aim of assisting the countries of the region • SC/10495 (19 December 2011) appre- Expected Council Action in building their conflict-prevention capaci- In August, Council members are expecting ciated the implementation of the UN ties. The Centre’s latest programme of a briefing by the Special Representative of Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy. action for 2012 to 2014 identifies three prior- the Secretary-General for Central Asia and • SC/10327 (15 July 2011) appreciated ity areas: head of the UN Regional Centre for Preven- the efforts of the UNRCCA as a UN n impact of trans-boundary threats facing mechanism for preventive diplomacy. tive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), the region (terrorism, organised crime • SC/10151 (13 January 2011) welcomed Miroslav Jena. This will be Jena’s eighth and drug trafficking); briefing since his appointment in May 2008 the most recent briefing by Jena and n implications of national developments on expressed appreciation for the work of and will provide Council members with an regional stability; and update on the Centre’s activities since the UNRCCA in responding to challenges n management of common natural resour­ in the region, in particular in the context last briefing. ces and environmental degradation. of recent developments in Kyrgyzstan. Key Recent Developments Key Issues Letter Jena briefed the Council on the work of An issue for Council members is whether • S/2007/280 (15 May 2007) and S/2007/ UNRCCA three times in 2011: 13 January, opportunities may exist for better use of pre- 279 (7 May 2007) was an exchange of 15 July and 19 December. Each briefing ventive diplomacy tools in the region. was in consultations and was followed by a letters between the Secretary-General Council press statement. Through these Another issue is the general security situa- and the Security Council about the statements, the Council expressed its tion in the region, including threats posed establishment of UNRCCA.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 15 Notable Dates for August SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT STAFF Bruno Stagno, Executive Director Report Due Reports for Consideration in August Requesting Document Joanna Weschler, Deputy Executive 27 July SG report on UNMIK (Kosovo) S/RES/1244 Director and Director of Research 27 July SG report on UNISFA (Abyei) S/RES/2047 Amanda Roberts, Coordinating Editor & Research Analyst Mandates Expire Relevant Document Shamala Kandiah, What’s in Blue Editor and Senior Research Analyst 30 August UNOCA (Central Africa) S/2010/457 Astrid Forberg Ryan, Development 31 August UNIFIL (Lebanon) S/RES/2004 Officer and Senior Research Analyst Lansana Gberie, Research Analyst Zeeshan Hashmi, Research Analyst Paul Romita, Research Analyst Eran Sthoeger, Research Analyst Nicholas Walbridge, Research Analyst Robbin VanNewkirk, Publications Coordinator Dahlia Morched, Research Assistant Laura Coquard-Patry, Junior Research Assistant Maritza Tenerelli, Administrative Assistant James Reed Ball III, Research Intern Tim Caughley, Research Consultant Stevenson Swanson, Copy Editor (consultant)

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